2010 Rookie Evaluations: AL Central

by Kenneth Arthur on Sep 3, 2010 7:42 PM EDT

It's Friday, let's try to wrap these up before looking at the rookie class as a whole.

Danny Valencia - .338/.378/.451 over 230 PA's. UZR likes his defense so far and it all adds up to 2.3 WAR per fangraphs in less than a seasons worth of plate appearances. Not too bad.

But if you're going to evaluate a player, evaluate the entire package and history. Valencia turns 26 in a couple of months, so he is old for a rookie. He has very little power. His walk rates were up and down throughout his minor league career. He currently sports a .380 BABIP in the majors. Given a normal BABIP, Valencia probably sits around a .350 wOBA at his best, .330 wOBA more likely. He's a good player. Just not quite this good. *Preparing to get killed by Twinkie fans.*

Drew Butera - .194/.226/.306 in 118 PA's. A career .214 hitter in the minors, sometimes it pays to be a catcher.

Trevor Plouffe - 2004 first round pick finally makes the majors. .138/.133/.276 in 32 PA's.

Alex Burnett - 41 innings, 30 k's, 16 bb's, 46 hits, 4.36 ERA.

Dayan Viciedo - .268/.268/.451 in 82 PA's. 82 PA's without a walk?! Dayan come and I wanna go home.

Sergio Santos - I love the Sergio Santos story. What odds to overcome! 43 innings, 43 K's, 22 bb's, 44 hits. 2.30 ERA. Incredible feat for a guy that just started pitching.

Chris Sale - 10 innings, 16 K's, 7 bb's, 5 hits.

Brennan Boesch - The talk of fantasy circles early in the season. .268/.330/.449 in 439 PA's.

Boesch showed a lot of power in his 2009 minor league season that finally made him look prospect-worthy, but he still couldn't draw a walk. In the majors his walks are a bit better, strikeouts a bit better, ISO gone down from his minor league track record. But Boesch hit .209 in July, .185 in August. Since July 16th, a 45 game span, his triple slash is .154/.227/.224. Someone must have told him he was traded to the Mariners as a prank.

Austin Jackson - .305/.359/.411, 21 SB/5 CS, 141 K's, 30 doubles, 9 triples.

Jackson leads the majors in 2 categories: Triples and Strikeouts. He can clearly play, as evidenced by a 3.2 WAR season at age 23. But he's got to improve his game to have staying power. He posted a .530 BABIP in Mar/Apr and it led to a .410 wOBA for the month. He's maintained a high BABIP since then (roughly .400) but his wOBA's haven't been nearly as good because of the strikeouts, not home run power, etc. Most of his balls that go in play, are going to stay in the park, plus he has speed so of course he's going to have a higher BABIP. But .530 isn't sustainable for anyone, so you've got to accept that he's probably a .330 wOBA player at best with 30 steals and good defense and that's not too bad. But striking out less will be key.

Scott Sizemore - .205/.282/.282 in 135 PA's. .293/.373/.453 back in the minors. At 25 years old, Sizemores at the brink of "AAAA" or Major Leagues?

Will Rhymes - .315/.350/.396 in 121 PA's and he has a cool name.

Danny Worth - .255/.295/.358 in 115 PA's. Tigers had a lot of rookie hitters this year.

Andrew Oliver - 22 innings, 18 k's, 13 bb's, 26 hits, 7.36 ERA for the 2009 2nd rounder.

Kila Ki'aihue - .185/.250/.283 in 100 PA's. Given a real, fulltime opportunity, I think Kila will do better. He's not going to blow you away, but he should at least be a .260/.360/.440 hitter.

Bryan Bullington - I think technically a rookie, Bullington has gone 35.1 innings, 23 K's, 17 bb's, 44 hits, 6.11 ERA for the former #1 pick.

Other than a couple of un-interesting relievers, this is the most extensive rookie work the Royals have put in this year. Believe it or not. Next year and the following year will be the time to watch.

Lou Marson - .191/.265/.270 in 228 PA's. I'm going to teach my son how to be a catcher.

Jason Donald - .258/.313/.389 in 301 PA's. Tomorrow is his 26th birthday.

Michael Brantley - .217/.282/.296 in 211 PA's. 7 sb/2 cs. Brantley was born in my hometown, so he's got that going for him.

Carlos Santana - .260/.401/.467 in 192 PA's and a big :(

Santana was going to be the rookie to watch in the AL. Now we have to wait until next year. It could be worse I guess. The eye-popping number is the .401 next to the .260. 37 walks and 29 strikeouts in 46 games is pretty freaking good, especially for a backstop.

Hector Ambriz - 45 innings, 35 k's, 16 walks, 67 hits, 5.80 ERA. Yikes on those hit totals.

Josh Tomlin - 41.1 innings, 21 k's, 11 walks in 7 starts. 4.14 ERA.

Jeanmar Gomez - 38 innings, 20 k's, 12 walks in 7 starts. 3.08 ERA. Just 22 years old.

Overall Evaluation -

1 real star in the group, and a great all-around performance from Austin Jackson that could make you say "Hmm?" Otherwise the Royals will be bringing all the talent in next year, while overall the division has some really good prospects but most of them are 2 or more years away (Sano, Hicks, Montgomery, Turner, etc. Many names I'm sure you guys could come up with.)

Top 5 Rookie Performances -

1. Carlos Santana

2. Austin Jackson

3. Danny Valencia

4. Brennan Boesch

5. Sergio Santos

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Comments

Twinkie fan

Not sure why you think we’d kill you over your Valencia eval. He’s playing over his head a bit, and I think that’s obvious… I’ll note one thing that he has hit for some power in his past seasons in the minors… I don’t think it would be unreasonable for him to hit 15-20 home runs a couple of times. He should be a serviceable player and relatively inexpensive too. If he can simply be league average, he solves a huge problem for Minnesota.

Oh, and I hate Butera.

by diehardtwinsfan on Sep 3, 2010 8:04 PM EDT reply actions

Butera is no Rob Johnson

…they should send down Huntington & Nutting, because they aren’t ready, either. - royshowell

by Marinerfanjake on Sep 3, 2010 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Ouch

Zing! Thats bad. I love Rob and root for him but, hes bad.

May the forces of evil become confused on the way to your house.
-George Carlin

by casejud on Sep 4, 2010 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions

He clearly has power

Can he use it game situations, that is the question. He hit the only left upper deck shot I’ve seen this year.

Hey, if he can turn into .280 with 15-20 HR in the future, I’ll take that too.

"Ninety percent I'll spend on good times, women and Irish Whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."

by strums on Sep 4, 2010 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions

I worry about what will happen when the BABIP drops, though

ZiPS projects him as a .271/.307/.371 hitter going forward, with a .321 BABIP, and I’m just worried that he won’t really be much better than that.

His high batting average is totally fueled by his BABIP, and without the batting average he’s not really an adequate offensive player at 3B with a 6.5% BB rate and a .110 isolated power.

I think he’s got a chance to carve out a career as a plus defensive 3B with good contact skills, but it’s a taller hill to climb than some are making it out to be.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Sep 4, 2010 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions

This is pretty much it

I don’t know if ZiPS is good at predicting players like him without MLB experience and who have repeated levels.

Valencia is pretty much the definition of empty batting average offensively. I think his peak will be .275/.330/.400 with +2 to +5 defense, which is still about average, but he’s no star.

by Hillstop on Sep 4, 2010 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions

He had power in the minors

This year has been a bit of an aberration for him. I’d imagine Zips has the avg/obp fairly accurate. I think the power will return a bit, and I think a .750 OPS is not unreasonable for him. I’d also note that he’s cut down his strike out rate quite a bit in the majors. I’m not sure if that is something he’ll sustain, but if it is, he might be able to keep the average/OBP a bit higher.

by diehardtwinsfan on Sep 6, 2010 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions

But even so, how good does that really make him?

Even if you’re a tad more bullish than ZiPS, say projecting a .275/.315/.400 line, that really doesn’t make him a solid regular without having a top-notch glove.

I mean, how exciting is a player when his upside is basically Alberto Callaspo?

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Sep 6, 2010 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Jackson

I still think his plate discipline is much better than his K% indicates. If you look at that part of his fangraphs page and compare it to the league average, it just doesn’t make sense for him to be striking out 7% more often.

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by Jeff Reese on Sep 3, 2010 8:40 PM EDT reply actions

Plate discipline isn't the problem - he's got some legitimate contact-making issues

I’ve had conversations about this before, and it essentially boils down to, “Would you rather have a hitter that has a poor approach and makes things happen when he’s right, or a hitter with a good approach but a nasty tendency to straight up swing through pitches?”

I think the K rate will come down some from 27%, but he’s a guy that whiffs more than average despite pretty decent plate discipline numbers.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Sep 4, 2010 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions