BB Top 10 1B Prospects

Editors note-Josh, Al, Doron, Jeff and I set out to rank the top 10 prospects in the minors at each position.  We eliminated anyone with MLB experience to alleviate any eligibility issues (as of 8/28).  We each ranked our top 10 at each position and then averaged the rankings to produce the list below.-Gatling

1. Eric Hosmer

2. Freddie Freeman

3. Brandon Belt

4. Yonder Alonso

5. Jonathan Singleton

6. Jerry Sands

7. Anthony Rizzo

8. Christian Yelich

9. Mark Trumbo

10. Rich Poythress

JD Sussman- We always knew Hosmer had talent given his draft pedigree. But maybe this season’s surge puts last season into perspective. In a way, it was kind of amazing that he did so well given that he could not see the ball and had a wrist injury. This year he has been an force, and is easily the top 1B prospect for me. I love his swing, and if his AA home run rate is a genuine improvement, rather than a small sample size fluke, watch out.  His walk rate has dipped, but I’d expect it to get back into the 10+% range next season.  One thing to note, from 2008-2010 of the top 10 first basemen by WAR only four started out at first base.  The others shifted across the defensive spectrum.

Jeff Reese (JAR75, JR)- Flannery O'Connor was mistaken; in actuality, a good first base prospect is hard to find. I could just stop there and sum up this entire list. I agree with Josh that Hosmer is clearly the best of the bunch. While I do not feel comfortable evaluating a swing, everything I have read supports his assertion. Due to the nature of the position, I still feel Hosmer’s significant drop this offseason was justified. We simply did not know what we were dealing with and cautiously ranking bat-only prospects is a philosophy that I enthusiastically endorse. His bat and, more importantly, the scouting reports have been excellent this season, and I am now comfortable enough with his bat to call him an elite prospect at first base (a distinction that I employ with much frugality).

Michael Herrick(Gatling, MH)- Jeff summed things up pretty well on Hosmer I think.  The scouting reports have been glowing and he's hit well at both stops.  I'm not sure if he'll start next year in AA or AAA, but I think he needs a full year in the upper minors to refine his approach against better pitching.  That's not really a knock on him though, this was only his second full year of pro ball.  I can see Joey Votto type upside here.

Al Skorupa(Alskor, AS)- No doubt Hosmer's success in 2010 has something to do with offseason LASIK eye surgery, but I think its also important to take this as an example of how we shouldn't overreact to a teenager's weak debut when the underlying tools remain the same. He sure looks like a future middle of the order force.

Doron Meizlik(DM)- Hosmer is the clear-cut #1 on this list for me, and I'd go so far as to call him the only elite prospect of the bunch.  He came out of high school with a reputation for excellent contact skills and awesome raw power.  This year we're finally seeing him put it all together.  Finally seeing him tap into that potential in his age-20 season is exciting, and I really believe that the recent uptick in power is for real and will continue as he continues to learn how to turn his raw power into in-game power.

JR- Freddie Freeman is an interesting case. The statistics are unimpeachable, but the scouting reports coming into the year had serious concerns about his power potential. I think he has done enough on the field to alleviate some of those concerns, however, I need to see more than just production to put him into the elite category. Until scouting reports that believe in his future power start to surface, he's not on the same tier as Hosmer.

DM- After Hosmer, though, there's a pretty big gap before we get to my #2 1B prospect Freddie Freeman.  I think Freeman is probably the safest player on this list and will be a major leaguer for a long time, but I can't call him an elite prospect without seeing star power, and I simply don't here.  He's second on this list almost by default, but I'm definitely not excited about the dude.

MH- Freddie Freeman is easily #2 for me, he and Hosmer are clearly above the other prospects at first base.  There isn't a big gap between the two for me really.  I think Hosmer might have a bit more upside but not substantially so.  Both have good power potential, both should hit for high averages and both are good defenders at 1B.  I give Hosmer the edge because he's shown better walk rates at this point.  Scouting reports in the past have been split on Freeman's power ceiling, some seeing him at 20-25 and other in the 30-35 range.  I am curious to see what the reports this fall will say, but his .200 ISO in the IL at age 20 is plenty impressive.

JS- For a second, let us focus on what Freeman is, rather than what he is not. Freedie possess amazing contact skills and his high minor league line drive rate will translate to the majors. Making solid contact is the key to having a high batting average, which Freeman will excel at throughout his career. Turning though to the “negatives”, his swing is not conducive to power production. He does not employ his legs or hips in matter that is going to create natural loft in his swing. Given his size however, he’ll still hit balls over the wall when they are up in the zone, just don’t expect a slugger’s approach from him at the plate. That doesn’t mean he is a bad prospect and it doesn’t mean he won’t be successful. I actually think that the part of his game that will hold him back more than his power, will be his walk rate (as it compares to his peers)

AS- I completely agree with you on Freeman, JD. I just don't see a star level ceiling there. I still have concerns about his major league power, approach and platoon split despite an extremely impressive performance ARL in 2010 where he showed improvement in those areas. I still see a 1B only player without elite secondary skills. He's easily my 2nd best 1B prospect, but I doubt he'll be as high on my top 100 as you see him many places.

JR- I was the low man on Brandon Belt, ranking him 5th overall. His re-worked swing certainly has made quite the impact on his production this season, and the scouting reports have been backing it up. Still, I have some lingering doubts about the power, whether well-founded or not, I want to see him continue this success for a bit longer. I see more of a James Loney ceiling for Belt which is still fantastic progress for a guy who looked exceedingly fringy at first base when drafted last June. As for the outfield experiment, I would not bet on it.

AS- Brandon Belt is an interesting case. He's virtually a different hitter than when he played his college ball at Texas last year. Completely different swing. So far, the results have been fantastic. I'm hesitant to overreact to his great 2010... he was a relatively old, polished college kid. I want to see him continue his success in 2011 before I go higher.

DM- Belt is a guy I love.  Al hit the nail on the head when he said that he's almost a completely different hitter now than he was a year ago, and I believe in the new Brandon Belt.  The power may never be elite, but it's already very good and he will almost certainly hit great for contact in the majors.  And he's probably the best athlete on this list and the only person who could play anywhere other than 1B at an average level.  I'm getting excited just writing about him, and if I had to do it over, I might even move him ahead of Freeman for the #2 spot.

MH- Brandon Belt has had quite the year hasn't he?  He overhauled his swing this year, decimated the Cal League, tore up the Eastern League and is finishing his first year in pro ball at AAA.  Yeah, he's posted unsustainable BABIP's and his power is probably somewhere between average to above average at first base.  That said, he's a good athlete and can handle a corner OF spot so he offers a little bit more defensive value than some of the others on this list.  I want to see how he handles advanced pitching for an extended period of time next year, but there is plenty to like here.  I have to say I strongly disagree with the idea of a Loney type ceiling for Belt.  Loney has posted ISO's between .118-.145 the last three years, I just don't see Belt showing that little power.  I spent some time trying to come up with an approximation of what I can see him doing and I came up with a pre-injury(2004-2006) Lyle Overbay.  Not a star by any means, but a 2.5-3.5 WAR player depending on defense.

JR- Yonder Alonso intrigues me more than he should. I think it is a subtle bias from watching him repeatedly hit line drives into the gap during his College World Series run in 2008. I think he is going to hit, and perhaps we are finally starting to see the power return (hamate injuries tend to dampen it) as he has a .347/.421/.592 line with nine home runs at Louisville in July and August. He will likely struggle against left-handed pitching, but I am more comfortable with him than anyone on this list not named Hosmer or Freeman. Where exactly he will fit into the Reds lineup is a question that I cannot pretend to answer.

AS- I think "comfortable" is the right word with respect to Alonso, Jeff. I don't think there is a whole lot of difference in ceiling between the guys on this list after Hosmer and I'm by far the most comfortable projecting Alonso to be a good major league 1B. Is his stock down for me? Yes... a little bit, due to his disappointing start. I do think there is more to his bat that he's shown us as a pro so far, though.

MH- Alonso has had a strong finish to his year, hitting very well and showing the kind of power that has been expected of him.  I still worry how he'll fare against LHP and I'd like to see more than two months of strong production out of him.  I can't see him remaining with Cincinnati very much longer, this offseason might be a great time to deal him away to fill other needs on an up and coming young squad.

JS- Personally, the more I look at Alonso’s statistics, the more I like him as a player. His career walk rates are impressive, and he isn’t striking out much at all. His hip turn is very impressive, and should help him continue to elevate the ball when he gets to the majors.  He does appear to have an uppercut  swing, but I’m not comfortable being too definitive on that until I see more tape. I fear with him, which is why he is fourth, is that I believe he’ll have trouble hitting lefties throughout his career. Whereas, I believe Freeman will, to a manageable extent, fix that issue.

DM- I do want to talk for a minute about Yonder Alonso, who I was by far the low man on.  Not to twist your words, JD, but let's focus for a minute on what Alonso is:  he will be entering next season as 24 year old bat-only, 1B-only prospect who has holes in his swing, couldn't hit me if I could throw lefty, and has yet to show off his power.  I know he's been the hot the past six weeks or so, but a season line of .290/.362/.458 has me wondering if this guy can ever put it all together to become a great player.  He's clearly blocked in Cincinnati, but I wouldn't exactly be beating down Walt Jocketty's door for this guy if I was another team.  I'm actually quite thrilled my low ranking on Alonso moved Belt ahead of him in our group ranking.

JS- Just to be clear, I had Alonso at four, and he’ll still be at the back end of a top 100, if he is on at all.

JR- Jonathan Singleton probably has the second highest ceiling on this list. The scouting reports early in the year were glowing and he has been productive as an eighteen year old in Lakewood. I recently got to watch him play in a game (observations here), and the primary thing that I came away with was how physically mature he already looked to be. As a result, I find the talk of him as an outfielder to be optimistic. He has a tendency to chase high fastballs, but otherwise shows excellent plate discipline for his age. Singleton still needs plenty of minor league seasoning, and it will be interesting to see how he performs in the pitcher friendly Florida State League next year.

AS- Singleton really impressed me in 2010. He's put up a great line in Lakewood, which isn't an easy place to hit in - especially HRs (.60 HR factor in 2010, .80 2006-2008) . He's shown a great approach and good contact ability. Jeff is right... the FSL will be an even bigger challenge, but if he puts up this kind of line again he could really fly up the prospect rankings.

JS- It’s hard to ignore Singleton’s year, especially when one considers that ball park, as Al mentions. In 2010, Lakewood had a HR park factor of 68 for LH batters and slightly suppressed overall offenses as compared to the league (not to the minors as a whole). With that said, I too want to see more of him before placing a top the prospect world. Mike Newman from Scouting the Sally gave him very high praise, but like Mike, I’m also concerned about his body being close to fully developed. As for his swing, he has excellent hip turn and use of his legs to go with a very compact stroke. The problem is, his stroke is only compact on balls around his belt. Balls down in the zone, where his power is evident, his swing gets too long and loopy (some refer to this as him casting his barrel at the ball). Hopefully, as he matures, he tightens things up but keeps his power.

DM- Singleton is the one guy who could be anywhere on this list next year, from #1 to off the list.  You guys have already touched on his great upside, but I am trying to temper my personal excitement/expectations as a Phillies fan for such a young kid who is so far away.  The power for such a young kid in that ballpark gives you a lot to dream on, but it's not really fully game-ready yet.  He definitely has a lot of work to do, but there's an awesome ceiling here.

MH- Singleton is a guy I'm really not sold on at all.  He got a lot of helium as he hit .353/.439/.641 in May and June but he's hit .251/.360/.369 since July 1st.  Even with the poor second half he's maintained a strong IsoD which is very encouraging.  I do wonder if it's not a combination of Singleton having a fairly advanced approach at the plate and the less polished arms in the Sally League.  I'm curious to see what he does next year in the High A Florida State League.  Until I see him against better pitching I'm going to remain a bit skeptical.

JR- I know there is a lot of support, especially by Dodgers fans, for Jerry Sands as an outfielder. He has indeed played a lot of games in the corner this season, but is he really someone that you want to play in the outfield? From what I can tell, he is a bad outfielder and an even worse first baseman. I am sure he could be a Jason Kubel-esque defender, but I would rather live with him at first. He has had a great year with the bat, but I am not totally on board. In a recent chat, Keith Law said: "Definitely not top 50, probably not top 100. Even scouts I know who like him don't see him as much more than a slightly above-average starter."

MH- I've seen people(Dodgers fans mainly) try to argue that Sands isn't a bat only prospect by saying he's really and outfielder playing at first base out of necessity or by bringing up Baseball America rating him the best defender at first base in the Midwest League.  Neither of those things mean very much to me.  I think he's likely to end up at first base mainly because James Loney has been so unproductive there the last few years.  I can see Sands as a Josh Willingham type hitter pretty easily.  I'm not sure where he'll end up when I sit down to make my top 100 list in the offseason, but he would be a last 20 spots type guy if he makes it.

JR- We really start to scrape the bottom of the barrel after Sands. Anthony Rizzo has surpassed Lars Anderson as a prospect, yet I do not see a bat that profiles well at first base. He has decent power, but also has some contact issues (admittedly he has improved in that area with the promotion to Portland). Yelich was a bit of an overdraft as a good contact hitter without the power you really want out of a first base prospect. He could probably be passable in left field, but fits best defensively at first base. Trumbo and Poythress are big first basemen who are having loud seasons in the minors in very favorable hitting environments.

MH- Rizzo is a guy I could see having a breakout year in 2011.  As a 20 year old in AA he's been solid if nothing else.  His first two months showed some struggles as his plate discipline was lacking and his power wasn't impressive.  The last two months though he's made adjustments, improving his BB/K ratio(from .26 to .58 since July 1st) and his ISO(from .144 to .227).  I think he'd be well served to start in AA again next year and get half a season or so there before moving on to AAA.

JS- I really like what I saw from him in his draft video. His swing is beautiful. Looking at him though, I cannot get Kyle Skipworth out of my mind.

MH- Yelich is interesting to me.  He got the obligatory Mark Grace/John Olerud comps as a sweet swinging first baseman without big power.  He has a good frame that at 6'4" and 190 pounds could easily fill out over the next 5-7 years, probably capable of adding 20-30 pounds of "good weight" in that time.  As he fills out and matures I can see that gap power becoming 20 HR pop.

AS- Mark Trumbo and Rich Poythress were 9-10 on our combined list and my personal list. They're actually kind of similar. Like Rizzo, they grade out well but unspectacular all around. Trumbo and Poythress also are both a) having great statistical season; b) age appropriate/old for their level; c) playing in offensive friendly leagues (PCL & Cal.); and d) playing in home parks that are very easy to hit in (Salt Lake City and High Desert). They both had excellent seasons but just can't rank higher for me while playing in those environments.

DM- After Hosmer/Freeman/Belt/Singleton, there's not a single guy here I'm excited about.  Rizzo will probably have a major league career but certainly doesn't project to be an above-average major league 1B.  Yelich has as smooth a swing as you're likely to see, and just hearing the Olerud-type comps flying around at draft time is enough for me to put him on this sad list.  Sands I'm decidedly unexcited about, but he has power so I guess that has to count for something when we're stretching to find guys to rank here.  Can you notice a theme building?  I ranked Goldschmidt and Trumbo 9 and 10, respectively.  I was actually a bit surprised nobody else had Goldschmidt on their list.  Obviously he's nothing more than a bat-only prospect, but he has done a heck of a lot with his bat this season and has shown great power (only 1 behind Trumbo for the minor league lead in home runs).

MH- Goldschmidt was 11th on my list and would have made it if we had classified Sands as an outfielder.  Goldschmidt, Poythress and Trumbo are all RH hitters that play in hitter friendly leagues, so there are definitely similarities.  The reason Poythress and Trumbo rank ahead of Goldschmidt comes down to their splits.  All three are better vs. LHP but Goldschmidt has the biggest gap in his L/R splits, to the point where he likely will need to make some adjustments to be more than the weak side of a platoon.  The 35% K rate vs. RHP is the biggest concern there for me, much worse than Trumbo at 25% or Poythress at 21%.

DM- As Jeff joked not long ago, "Let's hope we do not have any other position as painful to write up as first base."  Luckily, I don't think we'll be quite as underwhelmed by any position the rest of the way.

We appreciate any comments, whether it be praise, criticism or whatever your heart desires either here, or on our site. Thanks again John for managing the best website on the planet.