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Around SBN: The Most Dangerous Division in Sports

BA NY-Penn League Top 20 Prospects

1. Carlos Perez, c, Auburn Doubledays (Blue Jays)
2. Jake Thompson, rhp, Hudson Valley Renegades (Rays)
3. Cory Vaughn, of, Brooklyn Mets
4. Marcell Ozuna, of, Jamestown Jammers (Marlins)
5. Roman Mendez, rhp, Lowell Spinners (Red Sox)
6. Zack Von Rosenberg, rhp, State College Spikes (Pirates)
7. Kolbrin Vitek, 3b. Lowell Spinners (Red Sox)
8. Nick Longmire, of, Batavia Muckdogs (Cardinals)
9. Cesar Hernandez, 2b, Williamsport Crosscutters (Phillies)
10. Colton Cain, lhp, State College Spikes (Pirates)
11. Darrell Ceciliani, of, Brooklyn Mets
12. Domingo Santana, of, Williamsport Crosscutters (Phillies)
13. Bryce Brentz, of, Lowell Spinners (Red Sox)
14. Mike Kvasnicka, of/3b/c, Tri-City Valley Cats (Astros)
15. Aaron Altherr, of, Williamsport Crosscutters (Phillies)
16. Drew Hutchison, rhp, Auburn Doubledays (Blue Jays)
17. Zack Dodson, lhp, State College Spikes (Pirates)
18. Daniel Webb, rhp, Auburn Doubledays (Blue Jays)
19. Josue Carreno, rhp, Connecticut Tigers
20. Madison Younginer, rhp, Lowell Spinners (Red Sox)


The short-season New York-Penn League featured plenty of young, raw prospects with significant upside, but very few sure things. There was no clear-cut No. 1 prospect this summer like Ryan Westmoreland, Jason Castro and Brett Cecil in recent years. Lowell third baseman Kolbrin Vitek was the only 2010 first-rounder who spent any meaningful time in the league, and many of the biggest-name college products struggled in the NY-P.

"The New York-Penn League wasn't as good as it was last year," Connecticut manager Howard Bushong said. "Especially the pitching—it wasn't even close. And there wasn't a position player who blew you away like Westmoreland last year, and no (Alex) Colome like last year that made you go, 'Wow.' I saw some good players, but I didn't see the 'wow' factor we saw last year."

League champion Tri-City featured some of the best players in the NY-P, most notably second baseman Ben Orloff, but no top-flight prospects. "Everyone on their staff could throw strikes and throw breaking ball for strikes," Bushong said. "That's what separated them, that's why they won."

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mendez

Now with the Rangers, right?

by mrkupe on Sep 28, 2010 12:35 PM EDT reply actions  

Yep

Was traded to the Rangers with Christopher McGuinnes for Salty

by MonkeyEpoxy on Sep 28, 2010 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Altherr the first to be on more than one list so far? Kid oozes tools, mixed reports on whether he will be able to put it together though.

by jfish26101 on Sep 28, 2010 2:26 PM EDT reply actions  

I know Gustavo Pierre didn't exactly tear it up or even hit ok

but I think he should have been on this list just for the position he plays.

by hrv1978 on Sep 28, 2010 2:42 PM EDT reply actions  

+1

I’ll ask this in the chat; hopefully I get an answer.

by FI2 on Sep 28, 2010 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Take two

Aaron Fitt: [Pierre] has shortstop actions, he just needs to play with a little more urgency and intensity. He also is better going to his left than his right. But yes, I think he has a chance to remain at short. He’s only 18 still, remember.

by FI2 on Sep 28, 2010 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Aaron Fitt is a horrible writer IMO

His lists from the past few years have been rather poor…. If he thinks Pierre can stay at SS then why not put him on the list. I saw Pierre went from a pure hacker early in the season to a guy who could wait for his pitch and drive it. I saw a laser from his oppo field for a triple, and this kid has plus speed…

by Bravesin07 on Sep 28, 2010 7:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

I like Aaron Fitt

He may have a bit of a college bias, but that’s his primary job at BA. His top 5 last year for the NYPL is certainly looking good:

1. Ryan Westmoreland, of, Lowell (Red Sox)
2. Alexander Colome, rhp, Hudson Valley (Rays)
3. Arodys Vizcaino, rhp, Staten Island (Yankees)
4. Sebastian Valle, c, Williamsport (Phillies)
5. Jason Kipnis, of, Mahoning Valley (Indians)

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by Jeff Reese on Sep 28, 2010 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

I like Fitt too

His college coverage is extremely solid and he’s one of the friendlier (read: not crotchety) pundits over at BA. Thompson was a big sleeper for me from this year’s draft – especially as he’s overshadowed by an already excellent Rays haul – and I’d attribute his high ranking to Fitt’s familiarity with his career at LBSU as much as performance. A lot of people lazily tabbed Thompson a closer, but I think Fitt nailed exactly why Thompson has MoR potential. Three pitch guy with a good FB, excellent build and a good approach to his craft.

by blackoutyears on Sep 28, 2010 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

I liked Thompson as well

Baseball Beginnings convinced me that he was a name worth keeping track of.

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by Jeff Reese on Sep 28, 2010 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

True

He’s a Klima favorite and I really enjoyed John ‘s interview with Jake. Thompson came off as pretty sharp, which isn’t surprising considering the whole GED, early college entry history. Thompson, Wojcie and Thornburg were three of my favorite college starters in the draft, and so far so good for the trio. Figures all three have a healthy number of scouts calling them relievers. lol

by blackoutyears on Sep 28, 2010 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

I’m betting that both Pierre and Knecht were top 25 guys.

by The_Bunk on Sep 28, 2010 2:56 PM EDT reply actions  

Gary Sanchez

Surprised he didn’t make it. Did he not meet qualifications or something!?

by BryceHarper on Sep 28, 2010 3:01 PM EDT reply actions  

Maybe

not in the league long enough.

by wobatus on Sep 28, 2010 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sanchez

Sanchez was included in the GCL top 20 (ranked #1 over Sano)

by Slinger on Sep 28, 2010 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

No, he didn't
JAYPERS (IL): Had they qualified, about where would Taillon, Allie, Machado and Gary Sanchez have ranked on this list?

Aaron Fitt: Certainly Taillon, Machado or Sanchez would have been No. 1 easily had any of them qualified, and Allie might have been also. It wasn’t a very strong year in the Penn League, and there was no consensus at the top.

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by Jeff Reese on Sep 28, 2010 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Allie over Perez?

Interesting.. I think I’d probably take Perez at this point.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Sep 29, 2010 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ben Heath

I’m pretty sure he qualified, so I’d put him on this list. Heck, I’d put him ahead of Kvasnicka among Astros prospects, for simply outperforming him by such a wide margin both in college and especially in pro ball.

Production is just part of the picture, but when you get up to a difference like this:

Kvasnicka: .642 OPS (pro ball), 1.031 OPS (college)
Heath: .883 OPS (pro ball), 1.199 OPS (college)

Then you factor in that Heath is still at catcher and Kvasnicka has already been moved off the position… it’s just too wide of a margin for me to ignore.

http://www.crawfishboxes.com

by OremLK on Sep 28, 2010 6:22 PM EDT reply actions  

Kvasnicka

still is more likely a catcher in the long run. He won’t stick at 3B probably and doesn’t have the bat for RF long term.

http://milbprospects.blogspot.com/

by Matt Garrioch on Sep 29, 2010 1:46 AM EDT up reply actions  

the pick didn't really make sense then and makes less sense now

He was only good enough to be picked that highly if you thought he was a catcher, because his best tool is clearly his arm strength and he really didn’t have the bat to be more than a slightly above-average player elsewhere in the best case. That doesn’t make him a bad draft prospect (anybody with above-average upside is obviously a good one), but he still wasn’t a good selection at No. 33. Now the Astros have a guy without a position or a bat like 3 months after drafting him. But maybe next year will bring better things for him . . .I wonder where he’ll be assigned. I think giving him some time in the Sally might get him on solid footing and then we can see what they’ve really got.

by mrkupe on Sep 29, 2010 3:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

Agree that the pick didn't make much sense

There has been some speculation that Astros president Tal Smith influenced the pick due to a behind the scenes draft video which showed him demanding that they take a college hitter after picking DeShields and Folty.

Anyway, I’m not overly fond of Kvasnicka, obviously, and I could see the argument that he doesn’t belong on this top 20 list at all. But I think Ben Heath does, at the very least on the back end.

http://www.crawfishboxes.com

by OremLK on Sep 29, 2010 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

Ozuna

Absolutely loving the Marcell Ozuna ranking. Glad to see him above names like ZVR, Vitek and Santana. Hope this kid shows up big in A ball next year. Love the power.

by Marlinsin7 on Sep 28, 2010 8:48 PM EDT reply actions  

Marcell is a big kid, probably almost filled out

He looked like an old school slugger from the 80’s… He has a great arm as well but looks like a future LF…

by Bravesin07 on Sep 28, 2010 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ceciliani/Vaughn

Interesting to me, on amazinavenue.com, the SB Nation Mets site, Ceciliani was ranked by the members there as the number 7 Mets prospect, and vaughn at number 14. There are some good prospect hounds there, including acerimisdux, who often posts here as well. Vaughn may be toolsier and have the pro bloodlines, but he is a little older and coming from college more polished. He has more power, and albeit he had a high babip himself, Ceciliani had a crazy high babip, something like .420 or so.

by wobatus on Sep 29, 2010 10:59 AM EDT reply actions  

I wouldn't call Vaughn polished

He had tools, but didn’t do too much with them at SDSU.

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by Jeff Reese on Sep 29, 2010 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions  

Understood

and I have heard that about Vaughn. I meant really more advanced I guess. SDSU may not be the uppermost of college programs (even with Strasburg), but I’d say he’s faced more advanced comp than Ceciliani, although he did play rookie ball last year..

by wobatus on Sep 29, 2010 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

Both 4th round picks

a year apart. I thought DC was a later round pick. I guess i just assumed SDSU was abit more advanced than Columbia Basin College. He’s promising in his own right.

by wobatus on Sep 29, 2010 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

I just don't remember anyone being that bullish on Cory Vaughn

I mean, yeah, it was an impressive debut.. but the third-best prospect in the league and a better ranking than ZVR, Vitek and a host of other young OF (Ozuna, Santana, Ceciliani, Brentz)?

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Sep 29, 2010 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

No one was

He had shown very little signs that he’d ever be able to hit a breaking ball and turn his tools into actual performance.

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by Jeff Reese on Sep 29, 2010 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Did that all really change in 60 games?

I’m just pretty surprised by his high ranking.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Sep 29, 2010 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Maybe not

But if he has shown legitimate growth (which it seems that he has), his tools are pretty nice.

http://bullpenbanter.com/

by Jeff Reese on Sep 29, 2010 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

He also finished strong at SDS

I suspect some of his improvement was under the eye of Tony Gwynn. People talk about his college performance being disappointing, but he went on a real tear and ultimately finished with some decent numbers this season, 5th best wOBA in the Mountain West. That’s only disappointing if you think the talent is there where he really should be a stand out top prospect. And if you worry about the peripherals; he struck out in 25% of PA.

And at least some people saw him as a potential first round talent heading into the year. John Klima loved him when he saw him in Cape Cod:

Vaughn, the son of the Greg Vaughn, has a leaner and more athletic body than his father had when he first came to the major leagues. Cory Vaughn hits from a wide stance and has a short trigger. He has fast hands and keeps the firm front side even when he is fooled. He’s going to have the power to play a corner and I think he’s going to be athletic enough to steal some bases if he wants to. He’s a first-round talent in 2010. His numbers weren’t much to look at on the Cape, but I’m not scouting results. You can’t hide the power and you can’t hide this guy’s body and athleticism. If I were looking for a comparison at this stage, Matt Kemp might work.

But he was more doubtful after seeing him struggle in the spring.

Last summer, I felt he was moving closer to the Matt Kemp mold, but this spring I felt he was morphing into his father’s body type, with a strong low center of gravity. Vaughn’s best tool is raw power, but the concern I have right now is the ability to consistently recognize breaking balls. He’s playing center field in college, but his range is limited and he needs to improve pursuit routes. His arm and speed do not profile as major league weapons. Overall, Vaughn is worth the draft but at this stage I cannot say for certain that this is a major leaguer.

Apparently they saw more of the good Cory Vaughn in the NYPL.

The one area where I think the Mets have actually had some success lately is in developing some of these big athletic power bats. It seems they take a lot of these guys who have flaws in their swings and have been able to get results in having them make adjustments and hit for enough average.

Ike Davis was one to some degree, though he didn’t strike out as much, there were at least some doubts about his swing, and he struggled initially with the adjustment to wood bats. Lucas Duda and Kirk Nieuwenhuis are others, and now Sean Ratliff who stuck out as much as Vaughn in college seems to be breaking out some this year in AA (with numbers similar to Davis a year ago).

Essentially it comes down to how much you believe in his bat. Speed and arm are solid for a corner OF spot, but not really special. But the power could be something special, if he makes enough consistent contact to utilize it.

I’d say he probably has a higher ceiling than Ceciliani, because of the power, while Ceciliani is a guy with some speed, but hitting line drives and a lot of ground balls.

by acerimusdux on Sep 30, 2010 3:49 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Ceciliani > Vaughn

Can’t say I ever go to Amazin Avenue, but I would agree with them at least for now. I think we need to see Vaughn in full season ball to find out who he is, but I think Ceciliani is a good leadoff hitting prospect with the chance for more. I hate to start fitting 20 year old short-season players into parks, but his game would play well at CitiField…

I also like how he nearly equaled Vaughn’s slugging while clearing the fence just twice. He’ll never hit for a lot of power, but he can add some more with a natural line-drive stroke…

It’s really hard to ask for more than what Vaughn did this year though, so I could see where people might feal he’s being slighted. Either way they’ll both be players to watch when they jump to Savannah next year. Throw in the not-really-brothers-Rodriguez (Javier and Aderlin) and you’ve actually got a team to follow…

by MetfanBren on Sep 29, 2010 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Being slighted

Not now evidently. Number 3 in the league, even in a down year, suggests some folks do recognize his upside, and his performance this year, warrant attention. Both of them, as you say.

You should drop by AA. Lots of very knowledgeable fans there and, vigorous, shall we say, discussion.

by wobatus on Sep 30, 2010 8:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

However

I am not sure vaughn will start in Savannah. He may go right to FSL, like Nieuwenhuis did in 2009. DC may, too. Ratliff went to the Sally League, but he struggled in Brooklyn.

by wobatus on Sep 30, 2010 8:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

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