All Questions Answered

Which Parker? I assume you mean Jarrod.

Everything i’ve heard about his rehab is posiitve, has his mid-90s stuff back, command looks good though we need to see some game action to be sure. My guess is that he comes back fine next spring, not really missing a beat. I’d see him as a number two, with possible number one if all goes well.

What I have is low-90s fastball, strong changeup, average-but-improving breaking ball. That’s a couple of months old, but it does fit the statistical profile from the Cal League. Expect him to begin in Double-A and if he handles that well he could move up pretty fast afterward.

Miller. Reports on his stuff this year are better than Matzek’s.

I’d probably send him to the Cal League. Advanced college guys should be able to handle High-A, and Choice has a good idea about the strike zone.

Well we need to see them outsider the pioneer league of course, but all three are on the radar. Thornburg looks pretty damn good in particular. All three were erratic in college, but sometimes a guy with a good arm can have problems in college but do better against wooden bats…like Garrett Richards for example.

ROY in 2011
Crawford 2.0

Still a keeper. Don’t think he’ll develop large home run power, but speed, OBP, and gap pop should all be there. He just needs to stay healthy.

I like the walks and the speed. Extreme lack of power looks like a problem though…might have a lot of trouble at higher levels unless he shows at least a little more pop.

Oh, i expect he’ll put up big numbers at Lancaster. But the key for it to be real will be his BB/K ratio. If that improves, then the progress will probably be genuine. If it remains where it is right now, then a big production spike is more likely a park/league illusion.

Huge tools, power, speed…all are there. He made some progress closing holes in his swing this year and lowering his strikeout rate, but it remains to be seen if that will continue against Double-A pitching. Yes, there’s a chance he can make it. But I know a lot of scouts have some skepticism about if he can maintain an improved approach.

I saw him play only one game but he had some wicked plays. Including a backhand dive onto the OF grass and missed throwing Paulo Orlando out by a half step and that kid is FAST. I threw a fanshot up on him the other day. Check it out.

I have not seen him enough in person to judge on my own eyes. Video can be deceptive, and scouting reports are all over the place. I have two different sources with strong opinions about Green, one thinks he’ll be fine, the other is certain he won’t, so I don’t know what to think. Be interesting to see what TZR says.

I’m not a huge Bowker guy. I think a repeat of 2008 is about the best that should be expected.

ZVR: number three starter, albeit a very good one, advanced strike thrower with great poise.

Crow….if he gets himself back in gear, i also see him as a number three although a different style of pitcher than ZVR…more of a power type but more erratic overall…Kyle Lohse or something.

hmmmmmmmmmmmmm

Chisenhall will have a better career overall, but Weglarz could have some Jim Thome-like peak season if all goes well.

Love him either way.

If I were the Rays, i’d use him as a long reliever/spot starter next year, then ease him into full time starting in 2012….sort of what the Twins did with Santana back in the day.

well, i don’t know how to answer this…i’m not sure what you mean by a “Towers type” player.

havne’t looked that deeply into the lower levels of the Rangers system yet. I’m starting the book writing process this week.

SS Luis Sardinas in Rookie Ball had a nice season, although he only had 103 AB’s. Teodoro Martinez also did well in the AZL. He hit a few 2B’s and stole some bases but he didn’t walk much. Tomas Telis is a solid C from Venezuela and hit well in the AZL. 2B Odubel Herrera had average or better skills across the board other than power.
Hanser Alberto and Leonel Gil did well in the DSL this season but who knows how that will translate to the States. Esdras Abreu didn’t hit real well in the DSL but is one to watch if it comes together.

Castro and Lyles are clearly the top two in my opinion, and in that order.

The other three have great potential, but the attrition rate on pitchers below AA ball is horrifying. Lyles and Castro gain a huge advantage for having succeeded there, even though their upside may be a little lower.

My ranking of those other three depends on when you ask me. I have the best gut feeling about Taillon, but Turner has proven the most. It’s kind of a fool’s game because I don’t know which will succeed at the upper levels and which (if any) will flame out.

Well…as other posters have mentioned, it depends on what you mean by talent. Also any list has to account for context…do you mean a fantasy list, or a general baseball list?

I’ll assume you mean raw baseball upside talent, and in that order i’d go Taillon, Turner, Miller, Lyles, Castro. If you mean fantasy value, Lyles would rank higher since he’ll be ready sooner

I don’t know much about all the top starting pitching prospects, but I’d have a hard time believing that Moore is not one of the top 3 in baseball, at worst top 5. I’ve gotta believe this guy is going to be a great number 2 starter, with a possibility of being an ace.

He’s excellent. Minimum Grade A- right now. Only remaining command issue keeps him from a Grade A…and I might give him the benefit of the doubt.

Not very.

But there’s nothing wrong with him being a 3 or 4 starter. Or even a middle reliever. You get a guy like that out of an undrafted free agent, you’re doing great.

I kind of like him…I think he’ll be a good utility infielder.

What I have is 90-92 although BA says he was up to 94 at times. Very projectable, should throw harder as he matures. Good curveball. BA says his changeup needs work, my source didn’t mention the changeup so I’ll go with BA. I’d like to see more control going forward, his walk rate was a bit higher than ideal. I love his strong GO/AO ratio. he looks pretty solid to me right now, I’d say B- or maybe a straight B depending on if i’m in a good mood that day.

I’d give him a Grade B right now. Might go back up to B+ depending on what the reports are before the book goes to press in January.

Hellickson. As much as I respect Bumgarner, I want Hellickson.

Probably Archer. I think his stuff is better.

Well he needs to play…he’s got weaknesses obviously that Triple-A was not exposing very well. They just need to stick him in the lineup and let him hit, see if he can adjust.

ceiling number two. More probable outcome is a number three. The Twins produce these guys like clockwork and there’s nothing wrong with that…a team of efficient strike throwers can do really well if you have an efficient defense behind them, which the Twins usually do.

:)

yeah, I’d say McG.

If they let him play he can be Joe Randa. Will probably need some adjustment time at first.

His stuff picked up this year, his projectability becoming more reality. My main appy league guy likes him better than Perez.

Well, guys who haven’t debuted this year kicks out some favorite candidates like Hellickson.

Ideally I want my hitter to be an up-the-middle guy, but it would be hard to pass up Moustakas or Hosmer.

the pitcher i’d have to think about…the guys I really want don’t qualify under your conditions. Maybe Turner.

I dunno off the top of my head. I tend to be suspicious of the whole “he’s working on pitches, that’s why his stats tailed off”…it sounds like an excuse to me….if his new pitches were working well, his stats would be steady or improving, not getting worse.

Luke Hochevar and Rick Porcello were both told not to use their breaking balls IIRC.

Hochevar actually has been decent with pretty good peripherals and flashes of more, despite the unimpressive ERA – due in large part to the crappy KC defense. Porcello… not so much. Many Porcello apologists around here saw his K’s exploding in the bigs once he started throwing his breaking ball again. Not so much. Clearly an issue.

I’ll buy on Sale. I want to see the walks come down, but overall you have to be very impressed with how well he’s done.

I prefer him in Triple-A next year working as a starter.

starts off in AA…pitches great. Moves to AAA, gets knocked around a bit in the PCL. Sees majors in 2012.

I wanted a logo that looked like the old one, but was an actual photo, not a cartoon.

I own the copyright on that photo I took at a college game last spring. It was perfect…except for the aluminum bat. But I decided to use it…i knew it would look a little odd with the metal bat, but i loved the picture.

Interseting guy..would like to see how he handles a larger workload, but the numbers are pretty solid. Possible breakthrough for next year as he will be further past Tommy John. Overall, a solid sleeper for next season.

his home/road splits are pretty close, so he wasnt’ a total high desert illusion. I like him personally and I think he could end up being very good indeed…i know it was the Cal League, but there’s something intutiive i like about him.

I don’t think his stuff is picking up quite as quickly as anticipated, still low 90s with good changeup and OK breaking ball. He’s still just 20 and has much more development time left. Still a B- type I’d say.

I really don’t know….there are so many variables that factor into this…it is easier for me to say about pitchers (Tampa, Atlanta, Minnesota to a lesser extent) since it seems easier to get a read on how different systems vary in approach, but with hitters it is a lot more jumbled and harder to distinguish systems in my mind.

probably in the 60s somewhere…which would put him in the 30s on a 50 hitter list.

It is not a silly question. I won’t know for sure until I write the dodgers up for the book, but it is quite possible, yes.

I suspect he’ll contribute, say 250 at-bats or something.

hhmmmmmm

Well I tend to think range is more important than pure error rate…errors often get better with experience, while range does not and usually starts to slip. If they think Desmond’s range is better, I’d leave him there and give him more time to get the errors down.

.279/.379/.490

I don’t think Barney will hit enough to be more than a utility guy.

I’d go DJLM, Watkins, Flaherty.

I like the guy. BB/K is a bit troublesome but strikeouts aren’t bad, doubles should become homers as he matures, scouting reports seem positive, defense improved this year. Got a C+ in the book, that’s up to B- at least, maybe B.

Well, he’s kinda old as you pointed out. I could see him as a bench guy somewhere but not a starter.

the guys can play all 8 positions (I actually got a chance to chat with him for awhile after his return to Durham in 08 after starting the season with the Rays, and he told me one of the reasons he made the roster was his ability to catch in emergencies as well as play all over the field). He also is a switch hitter with decent pop and has good speed.

I haven’t heard anything about him speciifcally. K-rate is way too high for me in the NYP

He’s been good so far, strikeout rate a bit low for a guy without a lot of grounders. Probably a C or C+ for me right now

um…how do I answer this? I have less than some people, have never pretended otherwise, and I can’t duplicate what BA does, but I have enough to cover players I can’t see myself.

Few journalists are going to tell you who their sources are, most of them give information on background only and it would be unethical to violate that confidence. If I have someone give permission for a formal interview, I publish it.

He’s got some strike zone issues but it didn’t seem to hurt him much in Double-A, but that may not be true at higher levels. I like the pop for a middle infielder. His defense has improved. I’d givehim a C+

I don’t know, i really can’t answer this until I write the book and get all the systems analyzed.

Hmm…

Smoak will have a solid-not-awesome season next year but enough to quell doubters.

Ackley….spends most of the year in Triple-A.

Pineda…makes the rotation in spring training, has one of the better rookie years, siightly above average pitching.

Franklin…all year in AAA.

Halman…repeats Triple-A with similar numbers to this year.

his power developed this year and I think it is mostly legit. Not sure how he fits into NY plans. I wouldn’t argue with what Hernandez said, and I think they should give him as many abs as they can the rest of the year.

well sample is too small to judge sabermetrically. Sources seem to like him a lot and regard him as a guy who should have gotten more attention pre-draft.

Well…i don’t mean this as a dodge, but it is a caes by case thing. I certainly think there are some pitchers who don’t maximize their abilities to throw hard, and that mechanical adjustmnets and/or better conditioning can help them. Lots of examples of that. But there are also a lot of guys who really are maxed out and just can’t throw harder than they already do. There are probably more of thsoe than the other. Each pitcher should be evaluated seperately, both physical and mechanical obviously. the smarter teams do that…i think everyone does of cousre, but some are better than others at this maximization.

Hmm….parker, laird, carpenter, smith.

Laird and Parker are really close…I like Parker more intutively, but Laird has performed at a higher level. Prefer either of them to Smith and Carpenter

I doubt it will work.

I like Wells…he’s not as good as he looks right now, but not as bad as he looked hitting .233 in Triple-A either.

I think he’s a .250 hitter who can hit 20 homers in a full season. Not great, but useful.

the reports I have are that his velocity is just so-so for a RHP, but that’s a couple of months old and I want some data from August to see if that changed. He’s got a chance, but I don’t see him as a premium guy just yet

It is well-known that I am pro Alex. But I think he’s just not going to do well in KC. It’s a mental thing now for him. He needs a new organization. I’d love him with the Twins, I think he’d thrive in Minnesota.

I just don’t see him as a regular. Good utility guy, sure.

well, he’s young enough that it could happen. But your analysis is spot on and concurs with both numbers and scouting reports….loads of power, but a raw approach at the plate, and defense needs a LOT of work.

Not the best year, but hit rate wasn’t bad and K rate is very good. A few adjustments with his control and he would do much, much better next year. Like win 15 games if he gets enough support with an ERA well in the 3.00s. it’s possible.

Main concern here is age-relative-to-league. He’s not ancient but not young for the MWL either. Defense so-so Very intriguing bat though…I wonder if they will jump him to Double-A?

well I love all three of these guys frankly. Kepler is so young and has the highest potential….but I am a huge fan of both Rosario and Roberts. and think both were drastically underrated in the draft.

I don’t think he has a huge margin for error with his fastball, but I like his command and see him as a plausable fourth starter.

Too young and raw for the FSL in my view, but he actually held his own and did well considering the circumstances. Double-A will be an even bigger test, but there’s some brakthrough potential there given his toolset and exclelent makeup

a lot. You’ll see later in the week with the smackdown between him and Davidson

Yes, in upside, he’s not there yet.
Eh….leaning towards more of a strong 3.

Sogard more likely because he is younger. I can see them both as good utility backups.

Well….it’s not imposssible. But I see him as more of a 2 upside. If the Mets don’t find a way to screw him up

But I can see the arguement for Cortes, because he has a better fastball and is more likely to stay with Seattle

Boy, two guys with baggage.

this is a tough call. I’ve heard some pretty lousy things about Cortes’ work ethic and attitudes, and I don’t know if Lueke’s problems have much an effect on the field in terms of his work ethic or play on the mound. I’d probably take Lueke as much as i’d hate to say it

good topic for a longer post. please remind me better. “Going Trout” would be the topic.

Don’t know a lot about him at this point. Numbers are pretty good. Will need to do some scouting sourcing to know more.

He’s from Curacao — scouting report here.

I’d need to take some time to give you a really valid answer for that one. Best to watch for when I analyze the marlins system in October

Taveras is the best of this bunch. Williams and Longmire also have consierable potential, the rest are pretty blah to me. Taveras by far.

I don’t do players-in-system rankings at this point in the season, there is simply too much data to assimilate until I get the book process going. i’m not impressed with Sanchez’s lack of power.

Well he turns 26 in January. I see him more as role player at this point, doubtful he can be a regular.

No way he’ll hit .300 in the majors. Expect a lowish batting average and some OBP problems, but good power…..like .240 or so, 20 homers if he gets enough playing time

No idea. It’s a medical question i’m not equipped to answer. TJ is usually easier for position players to come back from.

I once compared him to a poor’ man’s jason Bay. I don’t think he’ll be that good, but he could be a .250-.260ish hitter with 20 homer power.

Like him a lot…speed, some power potential, hit well in a tough league. Grade B at least, perhaps B+;

I don’t think I’ll go lower than B-. I still like his potential a great deal, and will cut him some slack for a bad season. He was the equivalent of a college sophomore this year.

eh….i’ll let you know in a month. I like the AFL a lot but the samples are usually so small that i don’t find the performances predictive. it is a lot better for scouting than sabermetrics, but even with the scouting side it is often misleading. Moustakas looked bad there last fall for example.

I’m leaning to thinking that he’s overrated. And he was so bad after the trade and ended up in the dl…..let’s see if the Giants can fix him.

Banuelos. Better stuff.

yeah. for awhile. neither will last there that long, as soon as they lose any mobility they would have to move. Obviously Carter has to hit a lot better for him to have any chance to stick

Very good defensive catcher who hits .270-.280 with some power.

yeah, for a normal team. Would the yankees be satisifed with that?

.260 27 85

He’ll improve. Expect more power, slight drop in strikeouts, slightly higher average. I’d look for breakthrough in ’12

If you have a better site John, I’m all ears. I’ve been looking for one for a while.

Well, I’m a bit skeptical until we see him outside of High Desert. He has the tools, but the high strikeouts and sharp home/road split scares me.

I’m sorry, I really have no idea. I’m not familiar enough with Garcia to answer this question. His numbers are very intriguing as you point out. I will find out since he will be considered for inclusion in the 2011 book.

I like his speed, but his strikeout rate is a bit high for guy without much power. He’s going to have to show more pop, or a higher walk rate too boost his OBP, to get past possible reserve outfielder status at higher levels.

That would be interesting.

I have always been an advocate of aggressive Rule 5iving, especially for smaller revenue teams or anybody else looking for sources of talent. I think pitchers in particular are nice to find here since they can be protected in the pen without hurting their development as much as keeping a raw hitter on the bench.

Sorry!!! I two-for-one’d. If you could answer either/or, that’d be great. Thanks again!

Nope. . .i think i’ve made like maybe 5 posts on BBTF the last five years and I use my own name. I do all my baseball stuff in public. I only use fake names for non-baseball stuff, lol.

i am a Twins fan but try to remain as objective as possible. If my judgment is in doubt about something, I will say “but i’m a Twins fan”.

I think it is very likely that he’ll stick at catcher, and I think he’ll explode offensively next year assuming he’s fully healthy.

Starts in Double-A, hits well (although not as well as at CR), moves up to Triple-A, slumps some, adjusts, sees the majors sometime in 2012.

There has been some talk of that timetable being rushed but I would rather opt for a conservative expectation. I’m certain his speed and defense would play well quickly but i wouldn’t expect much power if he moves up too fast. that would come later.

.321/.385/.535 in TripleA
.241/.287/.389 in the majors.

Pair of inning-eater types with nonspectacular stuff but who know how to pitch and did well in Double-A. I’d expect to see them both in Triple-A in 2011, with major league time possible if they pitch well as fifth starters or relievers. Both would be C or C+ types right now, with Koehler probably a bit ahead.

it all depends on his health, and right now I can’t predict how that will go. He has number two potential if he is healthy.

Way way too soon to tell about this one. He’s quite raw.

Well the automatic choice may seem like Kelly, but I’m not sure that’s right. I really like Lee a lot. and I think his upside may be higher.

There is no such thing as a healthy Rich Harden. It’s akin to the Loch Ness Monster and Bigfoot.

Hmmm…..I guess we could see a similar result to that, although hopefully with a better track record.

I send him to AA. Yes, I have some concerns about his defense and his body going bad early, but if Matt Stairs could find a place to play for so long, Decker can too.

He was one of my pre-season sleepers, and I think the second half was legit. Could put up huge numbers in the Cal League next year. I’d go Grade B- right now.

I’d lock up the baseball rat and the slugger. I don’t like giving long-term contracts to pitchers.

Stranger in a Strange Land
The Doors of Perception
The Perrenial Philosophy

Well I like both of them a lot. Probably Rubby, although Joe has a longer track record

Well the numbers are strong obviously. Scouting reports are good. Only issue is his relatively small size but I’m not excessively concerned about that. He’s at least a Grade B now. Might go B+ after I research it.

I like him a lot, don’t expect him to need much time in the minors, basically a complete package in a catcher. Grade B at least, perhaps B+.

Well….beware sample size. His components are much much better than they were in the minors, which is unusual. Can he sustain it? I don’t know. The stuff has always been here but command issues and health problems have held him back at times. If those are truly resolved, I see no reason why he can’t be an excellent reliever. But I’ve seen enough guys who come out guns blazing and then backslide again that I caution against expecting him to be THIS good next year.

Hits 90, good slider, good changeup, but already 23 years old due to Mormon mission. He’s interesting but they’ll have to push him pretty quickly. I could see him as a fifth starter or releiver if everything works out well.

watched him extensively at ASU this past year. He’s a finished product at this point. 23yrs old coming from a college powerhouse, so there is no projection left. Tall and lanky, he was at 91-92mph at the beginning of the year but was 88 at the end. Slider is his #2 pitch, change is average. Solid 3 pitch mix.

I could see him doing well in the pen in short spurts, Could run his fastball up to 94-95 an inning at a time.

well i would prefer that he gets another 20 starts in Triple-A, but they haven’t asked me and circumstances may force that timetable. I don’t think he’s ready yet.

I can see him as a closer, yes, if the command is there. He certainly has the stuff. He’ll have to prove his emotional maturity to the satisfaction of the Brewers, but i think that he is probably LESS likely to get in trouble if he’s in the majors and they can keep a close eye on him

Yeah he could use a good dose of Triple-A to put the finishing touches on his game. I can see him as a .280 hitter with double-digit steals and homers eventually.

The guy has 2 HR in 449 at bats. I have heard that most of his his extra base hits have come off his insane speed. If someone has some more info on his swing I would appreciate it too.

Should start in AA if healthy. Don’t see him as a 2….more like a 3 or strong 4. Like a lot of Twins guys.

He’s a prospect, but his walk rate is prettty low and he’s old for the level as you point out. Grade C, worth watching. And I agree about small college players, I root for these guys.

Just from hearing things from guys, they want Mous and Hosmer to play together as it seems Mous keeps guys focused on what they need to be focused on. Not to mention I’m sure they want to keep his arb clock stopped as long as possible.

HIs ceiling is what his father was like before he got beaned.

Hmm…..for some reason I think he has a little Greinke in him if it all comes together although not that good. Scott Baker? Someone who is efficient, throws strikes, has three above average pitches.

You should ask this instead: Because I live near the Texas League, which prospects who will be coming into the TL next year should I be watching?