Austin Jackson in 2011

by John Sickels on Sep 24, 2010 5:35 PM EDT

Austin Jackson of the Tigers has had a successful rookie year: .298/.352/.408, 106 OPS+, 25-for-30 in steals, 2.4 WAR.

He also leads the American League in strikeouts with 160, and has drawn just 41 unintentional walks.

I was one of the optimists regarding Jackson pre-season, and I'm glad to see the guy has done well. But what happens going forward? Can he sustain anything like a .290-.300 average again considering how much he strikes out? How good can he be if the Ks come down and he sustains his current BABIP?

My guess below the fold.

I still like the guy, and while I think we could see him drop down to .280ish or so, I also think his isolated power will increase and his OBP/walk rates will gradually improve. For next year, i'd expect something like .275/.330/.425.

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Defense

Something to note: his defense is viewed extremely differently from the 3 main stats:
UZR/150: +1.4
TotalZone/year: -7
DefensiveRunsSaved/year: +20

From watching Jackson play almost every day, from the naked eye I would guess his true defensive skill would definitely be worth around 10 runs. From a WAR standpoint (both B-R and fangraphs), one would assume his WAR would stay the same or possibly increase next year even if he can’t maintain his BABIP because of a higher defensive rating.

by SATW on Sep 24, 2010 7:43 PM EDT reply actions

UZR doesn't mean much until about three years of data can be looked at.

Because of the way it’s calculated, you don’t get a large enough sample size out of just one season, or even out of two. While UZR is the defensive stat I prefer, I don’t see it being super-useful yet.

I don’t like the other two, either, because I think they cast too wide a net, however. The problems inherent in all three become apparent when after one season in the majors, they present contradictory views. I think UZR is most likely to be correct, but we really can’t know for at least another season what kind of defender he is.

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by StJosephBurningTheOakTreesToTheGround on Sep 24, 2010 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions

NO NO NO NO NO

I really wish people would stop attacking UZR with BS wrong information.

Let’s get this straight:

For EVERY SINGLE DEFENSIVE METRIC you need 2.4 years of data to equal 1 year of offensive data (if the equivalent of 1 year = “mean much” then fine).

This is NOT a flaw in UZR. It’s a flaw in EVERY SINGLE DEFENSIVE METRIC. It’s a flaw in DEFENSE. It has NOTHING to do with “the way [UZR’s] calculated.” It has everything to do with defense having inherently smaller samples.

The other two have the exact same limitations.

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by thejd44 on Sep 28, 2010 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

i doubt it's 10 at the position from what i've seen

but i’d bet on 5. and the somewhat better citation if you need single year defensive stats are probably the Fan Scouting Report. Jackson grades out very well there, probably in the neighborhood of the +10 you guessed. Though if you just look at the Tiger team page, he gets a 71 rather than 78. Not sure what’s up with that.

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by colintj on Sep 24, 2010 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions

So why do we still have to guess when we have difinitive defensive stats?

Yup. That’s why I don’t like them. They are all different and inconsistent.

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by 306008 on Sep 25, 2010 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions

because there are varying degrees of signal and noise

as in any statistic. triple slash lines have noise too.

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by colintj on Sep 26, 2010 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions

That doesn't mean they're worthless.

They absolutely have value, it just depends on whether you know how to use them.

And I’d argue that they end up putting together a pretty nice picture once you start to get a few years worth of data.

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by Satchel Price on Sep 27, 2010 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions

I'm a believer

And I still don’t understand why he’s striking out as much as he is. All of the fangraphs’ plate discipline categories are right around league average, yet he’s striking out 7 percentage points more often? I think that has to come down next year, and that will help reduce the impact of his BABIP coming back down to Earth.

I think he eventually starts to show more power, but I’m not sure whether that happens next season or not.

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by Jeff Reese on Sep 25, 2010 11:49 AM EDT reply actions

So why all the strikeouts?

What does he have to do to create a better contact rate?

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by 306008 on Sep 25, 2010 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions

The contact rate really isn't that bad

It’s at 79.2% and the league average is 80.8%.

Swinging strike% is 9.4% and the league average is 8.5%.

Yeah, he could improve, but they’re not alarming divergent either. I haven’t seen too many of his games, but those that I did, it looked like he had a good approach and fouled a lot of pitches off. I’m not sure why he’s striking out so often and I’m interested to see whether it’ll continue.

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by Jeff Reese on Sep 25, 2010 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions

didn't realize that about his contact rate

hmm. that means he’s probably swinging and missing more late in the count. that’d be an approach issue more than a strictly talent problem.

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by colintj on Sep 26, 2010 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions

Love me some Action Jackson

I have been hyping this guy for years. I can’t wait for him to develop and watch his power increase. He is an insane athlete and still so raw. If he can continue to make improvements I could see him becoming a .300+, 15 HR, 25 SB player down the road. Not bad for a Gold Glove worthy CF.

by King Billy Royal on Sep 25, 2010 1:09 PM EDT reply actions

Ks are overrated

Cabrera strikes out 100 times each year but he still puts up great numbers.

His contact rate is average for 2010 which is promising.

by bezeerk on Sep 25, 2010 3:15 PM EDT reply actions

He's not just striking out, though.

He’s sitting at a high (but not as ridiculous as Adam Dunn) 27.6%. What “is” weird is that his contact rate sits at roughly 79% (league average is 80-81%) and swinging strike rate at 9.4% (league average 8.5%). For a guy who strikes out a ton, he doesn’t swing and miss as much as you’d expect. As you would expect, there is a rather high correlation between swinging strike rate and strikeout rate. Jackson isn’t even in the top 50 in swinging strike rate, but he is top 15 in strikeout percentage and is sixth in strikeouts.

Conclusion: I have no idea what this means. It could be that he doesn’t swing and miss unless it’s on strike three. It could also mean that he watches a lot of called third strikes. Could be a combination of things.

One thing is for sure, he’s a decent contact hitter and a decent line drive hitter. He should continually post higher than average BABIPs simply because of the line drive rate. Naturally, he’s going to see fluctuations here and there as even line drive hitters can get defensively positioned right or just have strings were line drives end up in gloves. However, where is the power? He seems to have a level swing and good enough bat speed to make regular contact, but there’s no drive. An ISO of .110 isn’t terrible, but it’s not world beating either. So how much solid contact does he make? Is he just flaring line drives out there or do they have some zip to them?

I don’t think he’s going to be able to post a .401 BABIP repeatedly, even though he did have a .380 and a .390 in the minors in different seasons, sandwiched between .330s and .350s. So he’s going to live or die by that BABIP, as his other hitting skills aren’t good enough to compensate. John thinks he’ll walk more. I’m not sure he will. The league is going to figure out what he can’t hit and throw it to him without mercy until he adjusts. Next season will be a real test for Austin Jackson.

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by The Typical Idiot Fan on Sep 25, 2010 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Good post, a more detailed version of what I was saying

A couple other interesting numbers:

Z-Swing%: 65.6% (Average: 64.4%)
O-Swing%: 28.2% (Average: 29.3%)

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by Jeff Reese on Sep 25, 2010 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions

I really like the guy.

Good defender, solid bat, good speed.
However, the K rate is a bit troubling, and the ridiculous BABIP.
Still, he should be an above-average centerfielder for Detroit. Hopefully…

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by DetroitTigersGeek on Oct 2, 2010 1:21 AM EDT reply actions