Buster Posey: Crystal Ball
by John Sickels on Sep 20, 2010 5:30 PM EDT
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Please remember that the Crystal Ball is not a formal prediction, but is intended to stimulate discussion about the player. Please refer to today's earlier post below.
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Thanks!
You’ve really added to this discussion.
I think the CB is reasonable…I could see a bit more power as he ages, given that his SLG% have been pretty high in the minors (despite his lower HR totals). Of course his home park may end up negating any potential power gain.
I’m sure the Giants would be thrilled with this outcome if he can stick at C.
by Burlin White on Sep 20, 2010 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions
It's an inside joke at MCC
Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, please keep hitting.
by marcello on Sep 20, 2010 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
whoops.
apologies to the posters above.
I’m used to seeing some pretty sub-par posting at times, would hate to see it here. Thanks for the heads up.
by Burlin White on Sep 20, 2010 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Nothing to worry about
There’s no way most here would get the reference.
Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, please keep hitting.
This is my new favorite thing ever.
For the thirteen time in 3 or one evers, I found myself toothlessly thinking about Manny Ramirez.
anyone read lips
and figure out what he’s saying?
by BryceHarper on Sep 20, 2010 11:31 PM EDT up reply actions
ATT is pretty good to RH hitters. Unfortunately Buster seems to have great opposite field power, many of his home runs have gone to the opposite field. This is where ATT could hurt him.
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Go Roger Kieschnick! And son, please continue to break scoreboards on your way to San Francisco.
I don't have the numbers with me
But I thought AT&T was a tough HR park for RHH.
Overall this season the PF for HRs in south of .900 (last I checked).
by Burlin White on Sep 20, 2010 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Posey's homers have actually been rather evenly distributed
That's not at all even for a RHH
9 of his 14 HR are opposite field shots. In general hitters are going to pull well over half of their HR.
so in other words
If Buster decides to start pulling the ball, watch out?
yea
but you can’t expect it to happen. Think of Loney…
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Sep 20, 2010 9:23 PM EDT up reply actions
its a similar thing
except Posey obviously has more in game power. If Loney was able to actually pull the ball, his power numbers would sky rocket. His OPS is highest when he pulls the ball. However, his swing is currently made for linedrives the other way and he doesnt use his hips to pull the ball.
My point is you cant expect a player to change their swing. Some do(for example, Andre Ethier), and some don’t, like Loney. If they can, they can become stars, but if they don’t, they are simply average
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Sep 23, 2010 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions
You overlooked my sarcasm.
Loney has no power (let alone to the opposite field) to translate to pull power. Posey already has significant power to the opposite field. Loney’s complete inability to hit for power doesn’t really have anything to do with Posey’s chances of translating his impressive oppo pop.
Loney's got no loft in his swing
You just can’t have a first baseman with a sub-10% walk rate that only hits the ball in the air one-third of the time.
Loney doesn’t have that much power in the first place, but he totally saps what he does have by hitting the ball so infrequently.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Sep 23, 2010 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions
The sad thing with Loney
is he has a similar build as Matt Kemp, so he has the muscle, he just doesnt have the swing..
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Sep 23, 2010 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I wouldn't just assume he could
Look at Joe Mauer for example. He’s just a guy whose swing and approach lends itself to opposite field power at the expense of pull power. I could see something similar happening with Posey.
sure
But Joe Mauer is only like the one of the best pure hitters that we’ve seen in a long time, so I’ll cut him some slack. :)
Posey’s not quite on that level . . .but he’s certainly a very good pure hitter. Lots of guys “could” change from where they’re at as players, but to borrow from the saying, few guys are going to try to fix what isn’t broken as long as they’re getting a major league paycheck.
Maybe a touch below median level, but very reasonable
Given the toll catching will take on his body I could certainly see this being where he ends up.
Totally agree.
While the offensive numbers seem underwhelming from a first glance, they’d actually make him one of the better players in the game during his prime.
I think you could reasonably expect more power, and the length of his CB career obviously isn’t that long. But when you’re talking about a catcher, I think it’s entirely fair to assume that his career might not last as long as it otherwise would. Maybe he moves off catcher to extend his career, if the bat proves to be strong enough to play at another position.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Sep 20, 2010 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the peak is fair enough
however, I do feel his career will last a few years longer. Part of that is because I do not see him staying at catcher.
Baseball makes the world go 'round, or at least in my world it does.
why not?
Thing A
"Correlation between inability to use the reply button and general crappiness of analysis: pretty high." -Sleepy Freud
I don't think the Giants will let him.
Long term, I see Posey being moved off of the catching position, similar to what Mauer will probably do.
Baseball makes the world go 'round, or at least in my world it does.
by Whiteyballer on Sep 21, 2010 8:19 AM EDT up reply actions
I am in this 15%, and I’m floored that nearly 2/3rds think his peak will be higher. Those are great numbers for a catcher.
by wcw on Sep 20, 2010 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
+1
These are outstanding numbers for a catcher. The Stanton projection a few weeks ago seemed pretty pessimistic to me, but this looks dead on. He’s easily a Top 5 MVP guy and legit candidate for the award in four seasons and in four more he’s still one of the best and most durable catchers in the game, and that’s not even counting this year. The debate as to whether he moves off the position to extend his career isn’t even relevant right now because its impossible to predict, so I’d just as soon say he should be treated as a career catcher and have the assumption play that way. John could have just as easily run a second projection where he’s moved to first base around age 33 and extended his career a bit. The assumption here is clearly that he stays at catcher.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Sep 21, 2010 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
I think people just don’t think about it… if they had to make a crystal ball and looked at comparables Id imagine theyd come up with some similar numbers.
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Slightly pessimistic
If only because I think the tail-end of his career will be a little more productive and slightly longer, having been moved from catcher full-time.
+1
I could also see Posey hitting for just a bit more in the way of contact in his prime. Even without those changes, Posey should still stand a good chance at an MVP and 5+ All Star Games, and depending on da ringzzz (and glovework), that could be an HOF argument. :/
Thanks John
I’m slightly more optomistic on his HR potential (20-25/yr) and would expect his RBI’s and Runs a little higher if he bats 3-4 moving forward, because when looking at his totals for this year you have to factor in that hit between 6-8 in the lineup most of this year. Overall though a pretty fair assessment.
He’s hit mostly 4th this year, in fact he’s hit 42 times 4th, 6th and 7th only 17 and 13 times each. Maybe when he came up earlier he was batting there, but he’s been in the cleanup spot mostly lately.
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"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
Go Roger Kieschnick! And son, please continue to break scoreboards on your way to San Francisco.
Right
so about half the year he didn’t bat 3-4. If you pro-rate stats in those categories (runs/rbi’s) this year over close to 162 games, I think he will put up even similar numbers given the likelihood he’ll continue to hit there in the lineup.
Not to be rude
But who the hell cares about his RBI and runs scored totals?
Let’s focus on things that aren’t absolutely dependent on the quality of his teammates.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Sep 20, 2010 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, but John gives you enough that you could calculate those pretty easily if you were so inclined
I mean, I tossed out wOBA calculations below, which is obviously the preferred method for looking at a player’s offensive production statistically. Once you do that, you’ll notice that his numbers are actually pretty damn impressive.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Sep 20, 2010 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions
stats
Basically I don’t do OBP and SLG because OBP includes stuff like HBP that are annoying to deal with. SLG you can figure out if you really need. There is also a format limitation on how much I can put in a chart. I don’t have really good spreadsheet abilities and my graphics knowledge is primitive.
by John Sickels on Sep 20, 2010 9:36 PM EDT up reply actions
I think it's a bit pessimistic
also I have a question about all CB’s-how do you determine what other teams the prospect will play for (like the Marlins in this case)?
Buster Posey>
"Screw it, Redbull time"-Brian Wilson
teams
Case by case thing. Late in the career I like to put guys geographically where they grew up or went to college.
by John Sickels on Sep 20, 2010 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Home Runs
I think Posey will have a year or two where he hits 30 or at least makes a good run at it. Otherwise seems good.
Hmm. This is an interesting projection. Since we haven’t really seen Buster fail to produce offensively at any level, it leaves me wondering how exactly he will adjust once pitchers have had time to adjust to him.
I will admit I’m a little surprised at just how many games you have him playing during those first few years. I’m assuming a decent number of those games are at first base or as a pinch-hitter.
All in all, the length seems reasonable (I’d hope for longer, but I know what happens to catchers after 30), and yet I feel we have reason to expect his power ceiling to be a little higher, given how easily he’s exceed those expectations so far.
I'm as tall as Mel - why can't I hit 500 home runs?
If the Giants use him like the Dodgers have used Russell Martin
he could suffer a similar downfall. They both are very good catchers and have given a spark to their teams when they come up. However, if the Giants don’t give him consistent rest(not playing another spot, like the Dodgers did with Martin at 3B), they could run him into the ground very quickly…
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Sep 20, 2010 7:36 PM EDT reply actions
Posey has played 30 games at 1b
Martin played 0 games at 3B in his first two season, and 11 in his third. Not even almost comparable.
I think the bigger issue is the number of innings he's caught
I just don’t think its smart to have a guy catching 1200-1250 innings a year, every year. I think the Braves choice to sign David Ross and hold McCann down below 1100 innings a year was genius. I really think it will extend his catching career significantly.
+1
Keeping David Ross around has been one of the quietly great moves by that organization.
There are a lot of teams that Ross could probably play everyday for.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Sep 20, 2010 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Luckily for the Braves, I think Ross decided after 2007 he didn't particularly like starting
Honestly I can’t blame him. Catching just takes an insane toll on your body. I have a friend that’s the starting catcher for Alabama and he already has bad knees at the age of 22. Especially with travel ball taking off the way it has, you’ve got some kids that are logging 500+ innings there from the age of 10 on. I’d certainly be content to collect 1.5 million a year instead of 3 million if it meant saving my knees from the sort of toll a full season can have on a catcher.
I only played through high school
and I’ve started to develop knee problems my first couple of years of college. I can’t imagine what a full career would do to someone.
R.I.P Jazz #6
Im sorry
I hadnt realized he played so few games at 3b
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Sep 20, 2010 9:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Cannot judge his usage based on this season overall
The Giants purposefully started him at 1B to let him get acclimated to the majors first before tackling the catcher’s position. The plan is to start him at 1B in future seasons when he is rested, but lately, when resting him, they have not been starting him at 1B.
He last played 1B about a month ago, and has only 4 starts at 1B in the 60 games he has started since the first week after Molina was traded, covering 65 games: so in last 65 games, 56 starts at catcher, 4 at 1B, 5 games he did not start, and he PH in one of those games. That pro-rates to roughly 150 games started, 140 starts at C, 10 at 1B. That seems about right, the Giants starts their catchers roughly 130-140 starts in the past.
Adoptive parental unit of Ehire Adrianza.
Godfather of Travis Ishikawa.
"Woo hoo!" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
"The objective is that World Series ring" - The Kid
"I think my role here has changed a little bit. I'm counted on a little more." - Posey after hitting 12-24 with 4 homers after Molina trade
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Sep 21, 2010 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Hate to say it
Posey has 10 times the potential that Martin ever did :(
I hate you, Russell Martin’s 2006-2008 seasons, you gave me so much hope :’(
"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"
I know that this is not a correlation, but his hitting went down once he got the big money in 2009, $3.9M and now $5M. There are players like that, I remember Moon Man Minton griping about his salary all the time, but once he got the big money, he wasn’t that good anymore, the hunger was gone. it wasn’t until he left the Giants and became a free agent that he started pitching as well again.
Adoptive parental unit of Ehire Adrianza.
Godfather of Travis Ishikawa.
"Woo hoo!" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
"The objective is that World Series ring" - The Kid
"I think my role here has changed a little bit. I'm counted on a little more." - Posey after hitting 12-24 with 4 homers after Molina trade
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Sep 21, 2010 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I wish...
the OBP, SLG, and OPS were calculated so the projection could be easier to judge, but just looking at the raw numbers, the projection looks pretty good…maybe slightly pessimistic in terms of power and batting average, but I’m nitpicking I think.
I can slap together wOBA estimates if that helps
I had to estimate the hit-by-pitch and reached-on-error numbers, but those only have a mild effect (+/- 0.010 points, roughly). I just used the B-R Play Index and made marks comparable to those of catchers who put up similar PA marks to what Posey has in his CB.
2010: .391
2011: .341
2012: .400
2013: .359
2014: .392
2015: .392
2016: .377
2017: .388
2018: .340
2019: .337
2020: .286
2021: .341
2022: .293
That prime, running through 2017, is really damn impressive for a catcher. This projection really isn’t that pessimistic, it has him as an elite-level catchers for like seven years in a nine-year span.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Sep 20, 2010 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions
From 2012 to 2017, the CB has him as essentially the best offensive catcher in the game
It’s definitely not pessimistic in peak value.
by Hillstop on Sep 20, 2010 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah I'm not sure why that option is getting picked so much
BTW thanks for calculating this out Satch and gatling. Some of us are way too lazy to do this on our own.
by nixa37 on Sep 20, 2010 9:10 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Likely because everyone is expecting more doubles and homeruns
…they should send down Huntington & Nutting, because they aren’t ready, either. - royshowell
by Marinerfanjake on Sep 20, 2010 9:13 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
In the past decade there have been less than 20 seasons of .500+ slugging from a C
At least those that have enough PA to qualify. No one has more than 2. John is projecting 2 .500+ slugging season for Posey along with a .498, .497, and .487. Maybe there should be one season where Posey goes well above .500 in a career year, but this is a perfectly reasonable power projection for a C.
Dingers
It’s just that he’s on a 23 HR pace as a rookie… seems odd that this would already be over his projected best.
Granted, that’s over 162 games which is more than he’ll ever really play, but it also includes 7 games of nothing from last September’s callup.
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by achiappanza on Sep 22, 2010 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions
yeah
Yeah, I don’t get the “peak is too weak” thing….this indicates a very strong peak!
by John Sickels on Sep 20, 2010 9:39 PM EDT up reply actions
My take, and I'm waffling already,
is that I don’t see the “peak” where he really puts it all together for two or three seasons. Maybe I’m underestimating how good 20 HR and 70 BB is, but to me there are a couple of 30+ HR seasons in there. Maybe the park is holding his power stats back more than I know, or maybe I’m not visualizing his SLG correctly when looking at his HR and Doubles totals.
The only people who really know where [the edge] is are the ones who have gone over it.
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Sep 21, 2010 7:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Catchers rarely ever hit 30 HR...the last one was in 2003
The slugging percentages are pretty high for a C too. Like I said above, over the past decade, there have been less than 20 .500+ SLG seasons from qualifying catchers and John has Posey putting up 2 with 2 others just below and another very close. John is basically projecting Posey to have Brian McCann like power, which sounds about right to me.
He absolutely puts it together from 2012 through 2017
wOBA marks of .400, .359, .392, .392, .377 and .388 would make him an elite catcher in five of those six seasons, and a very good catcher in the other season.
Don’t get too caught up in the counting numbers- those kinds of XBH numbers with his projected on-base skills would make him one of the best catchers in baseball.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Sep 22, 2010 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree...
I was thinking a bit pessimistically at first, but when you actually see the wOBA, that pessimism isn’t really supported.
by Alex Eisenberg on Sep 22, 2010 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions
No problem
I’ll slap together FIP or wOBA marks for most of these from now on- it doesn’t take that long and it can be pretty helpful for quickly putting the statistical lines into perspective.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Sep 22, 2010 7:33 PM EDT up reply actions
OBP's are approximated
Satchel put the wOBA’s together while I was calculating this, but this should cover anyone wanting the triple slash lines.
2010- .326/.374/.510
2011- .274/.332/.443
2012- .332/.402/.498
2013- .288/.366/.426
2014- .310/.395/.497
2015- .294/.382/.512
2016- .289/.374/.453
2017- .310/.392/.487
2018- .278/.348/.392
2019- .286/.342/.409
2020- .235/.296/.325
2021- .254/.340/.362
2022- .210/.304/.319
http://bullpenbanter.com
Career line of .290/.362/.429
His career OPS of .791 would put him 41st all time as a catcher(minimum 1000 PA’s). There have been 29 catchers with 6300 PA’s or more(John projects over 6300 PA’s here), Posey would rank 14th on that list.
http://bullpenbanter.com
stat
I thought I already explained this…
by John Sickels on Sep 20, 2010 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Just a guess
Here’s an average line I expect from him.
.305/.370/.480 with 20-25 HR and lots of doubles
Posey makes too much contact to not be a projected .300 hitter
by mattp31 on Sep 20, 2010 9:11 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
.290 hitter is still pretty good
especially for a catcher
…they should send down Huntington & Nutting, because they aren’t ready, either. - royshowell
by Marinerfanjake on Sep 20, 2010 9:14 PM EDT up reply actions
It should.
Tough maybe not. Jorge Posada isn’t described as a first balloter and his career line is
276./378/.480
If Posey reaches that, he’s a top 10 catcher. Too early to tell IMO. I picked just right.
by Lolmoarpl0x on Sep 22, 2010 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions
So isn't the point that Posada is underrated?
He’s a guy that should get far more HOF support than he’s likely to get. He just won’t stop hitting.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Sep 22, 2010 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions
the only thing I'm not quite sold on
I’m not sure he’ll fall apart quite so suddenly at age 33. I could see him catching for a few years and then gradually shifting to one of a number of positions (3B, 2B, 1B) that will prolong his career. He’s an outstanding athlete with great pure hitting skill, those guys tend to last. I can buy the early production at catcher as an optimistic outcome, but I suspect he’ll be somewhat less productive.
catchers
Well there’s a little Jason Kendall in there…..i’m assuming he’s mostly a catcher and it wears him down
by John Sickels on Sep 20, 2010 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions
okay, if you assume he sticks at C all the way through, I can see this
Still, Kendall was doing all right for himself until that terrible injury he suffered . . .does the equivalent of that happen for Virtual Posey at age 31?
Time to trade in the crystal ball. For discussion or otherwise.
These are gross underestimates of what my time machine has revealed. His numbers
will be surprisingly better than that posted from that imposter crystal ball.
It really wasn't one of the choices but I would vote:
That his peak would actually last a bit longer and that he would not have such a sharp and marked drop off. The reason I think this way is that I expect the Giants to move him off catcher sometime during his peak seasons. I think his overall career will last longer and as some posters have commented, I agree he will remain a very useful part time player for many years as his career winds down. Judging by the quality of his at bats as a rookie I could see him being a lethal pinch hitter or DH at the end of a Hall of Fame caliber career a la Paul Molitor.
by baseballjunkie on Sep 21, 2010 10:09 AM EDT reply actions
molitor
I had not thought of a Molitor comp but that makes some sense in terms of offense, yes.
by John Sickels on Sep 21, 2010 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Also, he played every position in a game in college
So he might become a super-utility guy at some point in his career, which would lengthen his career too.
Adoptive parental unit of Ehire Adrianza.
Godfather of Travis Ishikawa.
"Woo hoo!" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
"The objective is that World Series ring" - The Kid
"I think my role here has changed a little bit. I'm counted on a little more." - Posey after hitting 12-24 with 4 homers after Molina trade
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Sep 21, 2010 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Posey is not athletic enough for MI in MLB. He may play 3B, but the most likely move would be to 1B. In a couple of years Tommy Joseph may push Posey there. While Whiteside can be a useful BACKUP C, they may have Jackson Williams up once Whiteside’s contract is done.
Also: I can’t wait for Posey, being a former D1 closer, to be the position player called on to pitch in a blowout!
Fathaigh go mbuaimid!
I AM PAT BURRELLZ'Z DADDY! (wait, that doesn't sound right)
Job 1:14-15
Too Low
Those power numbers are too low. He’ll be over 22 HRs multiple times in his career, and I expect him to sit around 25 HRs a year at his peak, probably breaking 30 more than once.
He’ll be a better hitter than Posada was at his best, and a much better defender.
As the chart shows, and as any observer would tell you, he hits a lot of home runs to right-center. He’s not a dead pull hitter who’ll get eaten up by breaking stuff away.
He’ll be a better hitter than Posada was at his best, and a much better defender.
Posada is one of the best hitting catchers of all time… You’re describing Johnny Bench here.
As the chart shows, and as any observer would tell you, he hits a lot of home runs to right-center. He’s not a dead pull hitter who’ll get eaten up by breaking stuff away.
This really isn’t a mark in his favor considering his home park.
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Benchmark
Posey’s got an OPS+ of 135 in his age 23 season. Posada didn’t hit that until he was 28 and only exceeded that twice in his career. So I wouldn’t put him with Bench, but I think his talent is top 15 all time.
Whether Posey will hold up as well as Bench or Posey is anybody’s guess, but it’s not specious to rank him with Posada as a hitter.
And yes, Triples Alley is the deepest part of the park, but my point is simply that he is not dependent on pulling the bull to hit home runs. He can hit them to all fields, which will bolster his road numbers, and make him harder to pitch to.
You said he'd be a better hitter than Posada at his best
Posada at his best was .338/.426/.543…yeah Posey is great at a young age, but there is a very good chance he’s never that good.
Also, just because Posey is posting a great season at a young age doesn’t automatically mean he’ll continue to get better. Some guys post there best season early. Catchers seem especially prone to following weird development paths. Go look at McCann’s numbers from his 22 year old season. Here we are 4 seasons later and he’s never come all that close to replicating them, let alone exceeding them.
I don't get why there is a very good chance he's never that good
Please explain.
The way I see it McCann outperformed his prospect ranking. BA had him as the 44th best prospect among all prospects and he wasn’t even rated the best prospect for the 2005 season on the Braves, he was third. He didn’t even hit that well in the minors, good for a catcher, but not that great on even an age level basis. He was way above what he hit in the minors, that was a clear indicator that he probably won’t be that good a hitter in the majors. And he was drafted in the second round, where most prospects don’t ever make the majors, let alone be as good a player as McCann has been.
Posey was rated by most rankings as one of the top 10 prospects this year. He also hit well in the minors, and he hit very well in college too, and his draft position reflected that as well, as a Top 5 pick overall, where a large proportion of the picks eventually become a good starter. He was good enough to be considered a strong (either him or Beckham) option for the first pick overall.
I can accept that the odds are much against him being one of the top catchers offensively ever, but to summarily dismiss his chances of doing that just because others haven’t, given what he has accomplished in the minors and majors, and his overall ranking by prospect experts, is what I don’t understand.
Adoptive parental unit of Ehire Adrianza.
Godfather of Travis Ishikawa.
"Woo hoo!" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
"The objective is that World Series ring" - The Kid
"I think my role here has changed a little bit. I'm counted on a little more." - Posey after hitting 12-24 with 4 homers after Molina trade
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Sep 29, 2010 1:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Following up...
…on my own comment. What you have posited is a notch or two above what Terry Steinbach’s career looked like.
Now, I think Terry was a very underrated catcher, both as a hitter and defender. But as a Bay Area fan who has watched them both, Posey is a significantly better hitter.
This is one of the more insane things I've read
In no way is this just a notch or two above Terry Steinbach. Steinbach broke a .340 wOBA exactly once. John has him being better than that every single year through 2017 including 5 of .375 or better.
Depends on your Notches
There are plenty of historical rankings that would put Steinbach in the top 40 of catchers all-time, including Bill James.
If he stays at catcher and stays reasonably healthy I’m saying Posey’s career offensive numbers will place him in the top 20 historically, perhaps higher. And he’s already a better defender than Posada ever was.
It’s not insane to say Posey’s career will be between 40 and 10 on the all-time list.
Some of you speak a lot of nonsense
Have any of you seen Buster Posey hit?
If you had, you’d realize Buster Posey is capable of anything.
by losingcalifornia on Sep 29, 2010 2:02 AM EDT reply actions
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