Brandon Belt Question
by Sgt. Dingleberry on Sep 2, 2010 11:45 AM EDT
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PrintBrandon Belt is now destroying AAA...Went 2 for 4 last night and now sits at...
AAA...29 PA...276/462/655
AA...201 PA...337/413/623
A+...333 PA...383/492/628
Total...573 PA...359/462/628
My question is....When was the last time a guy picked as low as Belt (5th round) just destroyed the minors and flew through every level like this? You see 1st round and 2nd round picks do it, but I am having trouble thinking of anybody besides Pujols. No, I am not saying Belt is Pujols....(Though as a Giants' fan I am telling you he is Pujols)
Help me out here....
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Not that uncommon
The year before Belt was drafted (2008), Ryan Westmoreland, John Lamb and Daniel Hudson were all taken in the 5th round. Westmoreland and Lamb were High Schoolers, and not old for a few of the levels they dominated, like Belt, either.
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Hudson is a good one
I guess I should have said “When was the last time a college player came out of nowhere and ripped through the minors?”
by Sgt. Dingleberry on Sep 2, 2010 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
need more qualifiers, i'm suggesting
1. position player
2. drafted out of college
3. not chosen in the first round
4. slash line of .350+/.450+/.600+
5. makes it to AAA or MLB by 1st full season’s end
;-)
by TimLaser and MattyC on Sep 2, 2010 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions
That sounds pretty good actually...lol
1-OK…Agreed
2-A high schooler isn’t going to be able to jet through the minors in one season, unless he is the second coming…
3-Let’s say no first or second round and no guys who dropped with huge demands but had top round talent
4-I wouldn’t say they had to have that slash line, but if they didn’t they wouldn’t match Belt!
5-Agreed to that one
Is there anyone out there who can match Belt’s season? It’s getting ridiculous what he is doing…
by Sgt. Dingleberry on Sep 2, 2010 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I admire your enthusiasm... but Belt's not the most amazing 5th round pick story of all time or any other round.
by Kenneth Arthur on Sep 3, 2010 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, that's why I asked the question
You guys know more about this stuff than I do…
Who has had a comparable season like this?
I am trying to get a sense of what guys who destroy every level of the minors in one year become. So far, Hudson is a good one. Zobrist destroyed the minors, but he did it throughout multiple seasons.
I am not trying to be definitive, I am just having some fun with this…
by Sgt. Dingleberry on Sep 3, 2010 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I see what you're saying.
I fear to make a comparison because there’s just sooooo much that goes into a selection, so many reasons a guy can drop, and I don’t know Brandon Belt’s history. I don’t know what he was thought of as he went into the draft. There’s so many reasons a guy can go in the 5th round and then there’s so many reasons he can fail or succeed and not all of them mean he’s going to be great or bad. That’s why I am a little more hesistant to make an accurate comp. I mean, you could look at Mike Trout and say “If the draft was done again, he’d go 2nd overall” Trout was a 1st rounder still, but sure, guys pop off startling first year numbers every so often i imagine.
by Kenneth Arthur on Sep 3, 2010 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Just picking a random year like 2004 I find:
Ben Zobrist, 6th round, out of Dallas Baptist University. Hit very well throughout minors.
Mark Reynolds, 16th round, out of Virginia
The draft is 50 rounds deep for a reason
Judging baseball talent is difficult. Organizations have gotten pretty good at it, but there are always a number of prospects who slip through the cracks in every draft class, and the fifth round isn’t even particularly late.
Not really ("gotten pretty good at it")
The success rate with the first five picks of the draft is roughly 45% in terms of finding a good starter, and drops exponentially from there. Roughly half that in the following pick, half again by the last third (10 picks) of the first round, roughly 10-11%.
But I agree with the other points made, heck, the vanity pick for Lasorda, Mike Piazza, is the poster child for how much of a crapshoot the draft can be.
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by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Sep 16, 2010 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions
you mean
Pujol’s floor is belt’s roof top
"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."
by fourfingerwoo on Sep 4, 2010 8:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I personally do not know but...
small sample size aside, I love this kid’s patience and eye all the way up at the AAA level! 9:11 for a K:BB ratio. Outstanding at any level, but to still do it at the AAA level one year out of college is generally unheard of. Let’s not anoint him ‘Jesus in Cleats’ just yet (Kyle Boller reference), but I am getting quite excited to see what he is capable of.
Yeah...that's what I am saying
A+ Conquered
AA Conquered
AAA In the process of conquering
Within less than one year? When was the last time somebody did this?
by Sgt. Dingleberry on Sep 3, 2010 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Although it is not quite the same
Pablo Sandoval also had a meteoric rise up the farm system ladder at about the same age.
That is a good one, too
As a Giants fan, pretty sad that I couldn’t think of that one! :)
by Sgt. Dingleberry on Sep 4, 2010 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions
.276 in 29 PA
Ain’t exactly conquering. I know the other numbers are good, but he’s an 0-4 from having below average numbers
I like Belt, own him in my big boy league, but what hes doing isn’t that rare, so you may want to step back from the ledge a bit.
Yeah...
Its not that rare, but its still fantastic. This shouldn’t be taken as taking anything away from what Belt has done… but a lot of kids come through and in either their first or second season rip through two or three levels to the upper minors with fantastic numbers. Alex Gordon, Matt Wieters, Delmon Young off the top of my head. It happens. Its always fun to see… but nothing historical… at least in large part. I’m sure you can break it down by saying college players, have to start in A ball and make AAA, etc… but substantially a fair amount of top prospects perform similarly.
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Even if he follows the same career path as those three players
then the Giants would have to be ecstatic with their investment. A league average player at the Major League level with potential to seriously break out? I think anyone would take that in 2nd or 3rd round, let alone in the 5th.
Right
But Gordon/Wieters/Young were all top 5 picks…
I am trying to think off somebody else who kind of came out of nowhere to have a similar year to Belts…A+ to AAA…The Hudson comp you gave up top, is the only one that really matches up so far that I have heard…
by Sgt. Dingleberry on Sep 4, 2010 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions
This is a comment that lacked thorough thought.
First off, let’s assume (as you did) that 29 PA is not enough of a basis to form an opinion.
Second, in small sample sizes, batting average is one of the most volatile statistics.
And thirdly, are we stuck in a time where batting average is the only measure of performance? If you want to point that out, where are you with his .442 OBP, .594 SLG and 1.036 OPS. I’d tell him to step right back on that ledge if we want to talk about these numbers as absolutes. Also, you failed to look at his K:BB, a very valuable statistic, and it is mostly reliable even in small sample sizes.
Alll numbers are volitile after 29 PAs
Maybe the lack of thought comes from your side. At no time did I say Belt wouldn’t be a great ML player. I simply said you can’t say someone is “destroying AAA” after 30 (or 50, or 100 ABs).
I used the first number merely because it was there. With 20 more at bats under his belt hes now hitting .222 with a .956 OPS. Still more then respectable, but not exactly “destroying” AAA.
What he’s doing is unusual, but only because Dingleberry has put such a specific set of rules in place here. You need a college hitter, not highly thought of, at a defensive position that doesnt need work, with a franchise willing to move him quickly through the system.
by ADLC on Sep 4, 2010 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I don't see any point where I lacked thought...
I never said that you didn’t think he would be a great ML player. I have no idea where that came from. The point was that using only BA in 29 PA to prove your point was ill advised.
And a .956 OPS at any level is more than merely respectable. It is destroying. An average OPS is below .800.
OK
but what hes doing isn’t that rare, so you may want to step back from the ledge a bit.
Who else then? That’s why I asked the question….Sorry for being curious….
What other guy, who wasn’t thought of as a top prospect when he was drafted, has ripped through three levels of the minors in one season, destroying each level along the way?
by Sgt. Dingleberry on Sep 4, 2010 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Going into pitchers? Dan Hudson last year
His 2009 season:
4 starts at Single-A, promoted
8 starts at Advanced Single-A, promoted
9 starts at Double-A, promoted
5 starts at Triple-A, promoted
6 appearances in MLB (including 2 starts)
Now that’s what we’d like to call a meteoric rise.
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by Satchel Price on Sep 4, 2010 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Great question Sgt.!
I don’t follow meteoric rises like Belt’s so I don’t know for sure if that is rare. We just learned how rare it is for Giants prospects when Runzler rose up so fast in 2009.
But what I do know is that the OPS he has been putting up has been very rare for a player of his age. What I like to do is look up recent leader boards for the same league and find players his age who have hit that well. People don’t always take age into the context of the league, but when the player is among the youngest in the league and still among the leaders in OPS (like Pablo was), that is a pretty good indication that what he is doing is extra special in terms of being a good prospect (never mind whether his rising so fast is so rare or not).
I think if the Giants were not competing for the pennant, he would have been brought up already, much like Pablo a couple of years ago. The 40 man roster problem is also another reason.
This is also the reason why he was shifted to LF at the end of the season, because at that time Burrell had not made his offer to come back for a bench player salary and, still valid, Huff is not a absolute slam dunk to re-sign (I would bet on it though), so if necessary, they could have started Ishikawa at 1B (or even Pablo with Franchez or DeRosa taking over 3B) and Belt would start in LF.
Now, if they resign both Burrell and Huff (I would bet on it), they can let Belt prove himself beyond the SSS this season in AAA, and they could start Burrell in LF, Huff at 1B, leave RF as a battle between Schierholtz/Rowand/DeRosa, and if Belt is ready by mid-season and RF is still a question mark, Huff could move to RF and Belt could take 1B. The Giants have been pretty conscientious about leaving a spot open in their starting lineup for a prospect to try to win a position.
And if Belt dominates in spring, he could push up the timetable, start at 1B, Huff in RF. Or with Burrell happy with a bench role, Belt could conceivably start in LF with Burrell as the safety net for the Giants should he falter in the majors.
Adoptive parental unit of Ehire Adrianza.
Godfather of Travis Ishikawa.
"Woo hoo!" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
"The objective is that World Series ring" - The Kid
"I think my role here has changed a little bit. I'm counted on a little more." - Posey after hitting 12-24 with 4 homers after Molina trade
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Sep 16, 2010 7:57 PM EDT reply actions
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