AQA

Toughie…..Banuelos certainly did better this year, Perez had better pre-season reports. I want to tap my Texas League sources and get some more info on what was wrong with him this year before I answer this one.

And not to mention if Crow or Melville bounce back to their potential and join them in AA!

Off the top of my head I can’t think of one like that. I’m sure there’s been something close to that good somewhere, but it is one hell of a rotation.

keep in mind that given pitcher attrition, the royals should count themsleves fortunate if just two of them turn into good major league pitchers

The funny thing is I find it easier to deal with pitchers than hitters these days. I have a much better feel for scouting pitchers in person. Hitters, I have a hard time with things like swing mechanics.

Of the hitters, I find that catchers tend to have strange development paths.

He’s certainly very interesting, but the sample size is a bit small and i’d like to see him at a higher level. Let’s see how he does in the Arizona Fall League.

Well I still like Stewart a lot but no longer rank him ahead of Drabek, although he made a lot of progress in the second half. I’d say Stewart can be a number 3 and Drabek a number 2 if all goes well.

that is what i heard a couple of months ago, but will get an update about this soon.

I don’t like to mix hitters and pitchers.

tough….maybe ackley, franklin, smoak. I still think Smoak will be really good eventually, but it is easier to find a first baseman than a middle infielder who can hit.

I don’t think it would hurt anything, and they’ll have to protect him on the 40-man anyway. I could see calling him up and letting him get his feet wet with a late start or a couple of relief appearances.

Yeah, while I haven’t given up on him entirely, his skills have been stagnant for two years. He’s a Grade C guy once again….still has the tools, but still needs the skills. There’s some chance he could be a late bloomer, but a change of scenery would probably be needed.

It depends….i usually get some good data from scouts. i’ve had more luck with actual front office people than from managers and players, who are sometimes reticent or pretty vague, although that’s something that’s gotten better over time. Some places are better than others.

Well he didn’t have a super-good season….but there was progress in the second half. He hit .308/.429/.459 in the second half with a greatly improved BB/K ratio.

He may not develop as much home run power as originally anticipated, but the on-base skills are developing nicely and all the tools are still there. I think a breakout next year is quite possible, although the hitting enviornment in Fort Myers and the FSL might mask it at first.

You asked a similar question in another thread recently about players with emotional awareness and social skills.

I really don’t know how to answer this one….I know that players like that exist and being a good citizen and human being is defintely to their credit. But I don’t have a list off the top of my head who the best human beings in the minor leagues are. The best one may be someone that we’ve never heard of. Unfortunately, being a good human being doesn’t necessarily correlate with being a good baseball player.

i’d expect slow improvement from both. I’m more concerned with Pedro at this point than witih Mike….Mike’s tools are better and he’s younger, he has more margin to work with. I still expect Alvarez to be a very good and still possibly excellent hitter, but he’s got some adjustments to make,no question.

That’s a tough comp. Hernandez is bigger and stronger, has a body that looks more classically durable, to the eye anyway. Teheran isn’t built the same way physically.

Teheran has the ability to put up Felix-type numbers as a maximal outcome, yes. But I wouldn’t expect it.

Greatest….I’m assuming you mean best-ever all things considered.

Without looking at numbers and WAR and all that, and not worrying too much about steroids, here are some candidates…

Hitters: Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Barry Bonds, Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, Hank Aaron, Willie Mays
Pitcher: Lefty Grove, Roger Clemens, Cy Young, Walter Johnson
Player: Babe Ruth

If a guy has a “power pitcher statistical profile” (High K/IP, low H/IP) even if he does not throw hard, that’s usually a very good sign. Wilk’s got the great K/BB, but his K/IP isn’t quite good enough for me to think he’s a slam dunk for success.

He’s just 21 and has shown power in Triple-A…he’s the equivalent of a guy just getting drafted out of college as a junior right now. Way too soon to consider him a bust.

I don’t like the way the Mets have handled him, and all the injuries have hampered his development. It would not surprise me to see a change of scenery necessary for him to really thrive, but there’s still a reasonable likelikhood that he’ll end up being a very good player.

Either Peguero or Thomas Neal, not counting 2010 draftees

Chiirinos is very interesting due to his BB/K ratio….very low strikeout rate for a guy with some power. Canzler is less valuable due to position factors and his components aren’t as good. I think Chirinos could really sneak up on people next year.

Maybe when the economy turns around. Not before then.

The Hawaii thing is interesting but attendance is just too low for it to be sustainable due to the cost factors and travel involved. You could set one up in Florida or the southern areas of Texas, Louisiana, and along the Gulf, but again, it would have to wait until economic condiitons are better

rather raw from the Virgin Islands, but a good athlete and has a live arm, 90-93 with more possible as he matures. Good K/IP and H/IP in rookie ball, but needs sharper control. I’d say Grade C with higher potential right now, and a sleeper to watch going forward

I’d probably send him back to AAA to work more on the defensive side of the game. He’s still just 20, 21 next year.

The Twins of course.

:)

I’m staying away from this one.

I really like his tools and athleticism and had him pegged as a sleeper pre-season. He had a rough first half but was great in the second, .321/.387/.487. Big breakthrough next year is my guess, and my hope.

The a-ball numbers are good and scouts respect his tools despite his size. But he’ll have to prove himself in Double-A….the size IS an issue. If he performs well there, then he could have a major league future, yes

I would not have a hard-and-fast rule about this….it would be a case-by-case thing, depending on the player, his level of athleticism, his committment to defnese, work ethic, confidence, etc.

He was pretty effective in the Sally League although I don’t have any scouting reports in front of me, and without them I wouldn’t want to get too specific. But on paper anyway, it looks like he’s made a solid recovery and is well-positioned for next year. He’s only 20, it will be interesting to see how aggressive the Yankees will be with him next year

He had a better second half after a rough start. My guess is that he’ll end up spending much of his career as an OF, but with occasional infield action to cover holes. I also think he may end up as trade bait and could get easily lost in the shuffle unless he has a big spring.

I had some concerns about his mechanics, although not all analysis agreed with me and some thought they were just fine. To the naked eye it looks like they’ve been polished a bit, but overall I don’t have any problems with the way the Padres have handled him. It would be nice to shut him down but the pennant race does change things.

My gut feeling is that he has enough athleticism and aptitude to become an average defensive catcher, and with a bat like that an average glove is all he’d need.

Now, will the Royals do that? I don’t know. SHOULD they do it? If it was me, i’d probably send him to Double-A next year as a catcher and see how it goes. If he shows substantial improvement and is committed to catching, I’d let it ride. If his glove remains rough, then I’d move him to OF in 2012 and let the bat move him forward.

Well, i sincerely doubt that anyone would offer me a job like that. I haven’t “paid my dues” inside an organization.

If someone did, it would depend on what team and if they would want me to pack up my family and move from Lawrence. There are many places in this country where I would simply refuse to live, and my family and friends are more important to me than work. Lawrence is the perfect place for us for a variety of reasons. I work to support my family, but I won’t sacrifice my family for work, if that makes sense.

We have particular circumstances in our family that make it imperative for me to be home as often as possible. Even with my current job, it clamps down on my ability to travel and scout in person. I’ve tried to adapt as best I can with this.

Basically, I like my job and don’t want to change it. I’d appreciate additional financial stability, but if that came at the expense of what I do at home, I don’t think I’d make that decision.

Well it’s a medical question that I’m not really qualified to comment on. Assuming he recovers properly, I have no doubt about his abilities. He’s a great player.

• that should read, “… particularly young guys without long managerial track records in the major leagues?”

That’s a good question. Some things I’d look for.

*Being a great player has little to do with being a great manager.
*At the same time, I think having major league EXPERIENCE is necessary, as a player or as a coach at a minimum. This helps avoid the Vern Rapp/Trey Hillman problem of an otherwise-qualified guy having problems knowing what does and does not work in a major league clubhouse.
*Intelligence is obviously necessary…but not just analytical intelligence, they have to have emotional intelligence as well.
*Given a choice between a guy who is a brilliant tactician but a poor clubhouse manager, or a guy who is a mediocre tactician but great at handling people, I’d probably go with the later. Ideally you want both of course.

I’ll say they win 55. but not 56.

Joseph is a better athlete and younger, probably higher ulttimate upside. But phelps is much more polished and more likely to actually reach his upside.

eh….probably hamilton. In pure baseball terms i might take profar.

Like them all. Owens probably best at this point, best balance of skills and stuff.

I have no idea, depends on his recovery from surgery. This is another example of why I don’t go hog-wild about 16 year old pitchers.

Yeah, agreed it could be very close.

My take is that McGuire has slightly better pure stuff, though of course we have an actual pro track record to look at with Leake.

Yeah, quite disappointing this year, although his walk rate is actually up slightly. I don’t think he’s this bad, but he can’t have another season like this one and remain in good graces as a young player. He’ll be 26 in January, he’s got to take the step forward next year. This might be a change-of-scenery guy who switches organizations and then finds the key at age 27 or 28.

no idea. I hate it when these guys won’t sign in order to get a just a bit more cash out of the team.

Well given that we have no objective data from Taillon, this is a difficult comparison.

Going by physical attributes alone, I’d to Taillon, Turner, Miller, Matzek.

Going by objective and physical, I’d go Turner, Miller, Taillon, Matzek.

Control still a huge issue. at this point I doubt he makes it.

A healthy Ranaudo has a higher floor, AND a higher ceiling than Kelly and is a superior prospect.

I’d start Gordon in AA, with promotion to AAA possible by June if his performance has improved compared to this year.

Robinson and Sands go to AAA.

I dunno…health factors that mrkupe mentions could be one factor, although I’m not sure about the curveball/shoulder connection.

The slider is probably easier for most pitchers master than the curve. That is probably the biggest factor.

Injuries, followed by Command Fail.

At this point I’ve lost hope for him.

well i think the other posters answered this

His WAR is somewhere between 1 and 2 right now (depending on Fangraphs or B-R) and he’s hitting .212/.251/.327 since August 1. If you’re looking for a reason not to believe in the “improvements,” just look at his performance over the last month and a half.

Well for all of Delmon’s issues the last few years, he’s a .292/.325/.432 career hitter and just turned 25 a couple of days ago. I think he’ll probably have a year or two when he just destroys the league for six months and sustains his pre-august pace…perhaps at age 27 or 28? But that he’ll also have a lot of seasons regarded as rather disappointing.

Like them all. Torres will get to the majors first…love the K/IP ratio and he gets some grounders too, very good stuff, needs sharper command. Lobstein and Wilking will need more time, I’d give them C+ with higher potential grades right now.

Pass. I can’t even make early guess right now.

Heyward

i havent’ heard anything recent. At this point I’d say it is unlikely.

Both seem to have better offensive potential than Posey, although I don’t know who will wind up being the best defensive catcher in the long run (so difficult to measure things like pitch framing).

:)

My pick for Dodgers Minor League Pitcher Of the Year. Not the sexiest of picks, but he’s come from nowhere to have 2 straight good seasons. A nice late round surprise.

Option 2.

He had a good year but I’m not convinced he’ll have the power and OBP desired of a regular first baseman at the major league level.

Oh, lots of things can cause that….bad luck, bad defense, bad bullpen allowing too many left-on runners to score, perhaps bad “clutch” performance although that is hard to pin down. Case by case thing.

When it happens consistently year from year….well, is it a problem with the pitcher, or is it a problem with FIP?

All have the ability. I think Mulligan is most likely to make it as a bullpen guy. I’d pick Cortes on physical talents but he’s got makeup problems. Moreno failed in Double-A this year. Barrera is kind of a blah pitcher to me. Aguilar i can see.

I was just looking at Olmos the other day for another project…there is a lot to like with him, he’s a big breakout candidate for next year. Montgomery has great command of so-so stuff from what I heard….as you point out all but Olmos are old for the level.

Edgar Olmos, folks. Watch him next year.

Yes, although more as a solid player not a star.

Gut says he’ll rebound somewhat in 2011….better than this year, not as good as 2009. He may never live up to his fast start, but he’ll get to the majors eventually and should be useful at least as a role player, with still a chance to move beyond that.

Someone already asked a similar question above.

Well the phillies have had some success with this although they draft so many tools guys that at least some of them pan out eventually. I’d have to think about this one. The Twins do a pretty good job of it, although they have had some failures too.

I hadn’t thought about him as a Top 100 guy, but you could make a case for him in the back end. I gave him a Grade C+ pre-season. That would move to a Grade B- now, and maybe a B once I get final reports on him. I’d start him at High-A.

.300 hitter, 15-20 homers per season, good OBP.

Well he was never going to be a huge home run guy, but I think he has more pop than he showed this year. The wrist seems likely to have impacted that.

Oh, i really have no idea. I haven’t focused on the 2011 draft at all yet, I’m sorry. I’m focused on getting ready for the book right now. I won’t take a close look at the draft until January.

I really hate rating Japanese guys, lol. I’d probably give him a A-.

No.

If they can get through the recession nothing huge will happen.

On the other hand, if the entire capitalist economic infrastructure collapses (and that IS a possibility, the inherent contradictions of capitalism are grinding against each other again, just as they did in the 1930s), then MLB itself is in jeopardy. In that case, though, we’ll have a lot more to worry about than what happens to baseball.

Marx was right about a lot of things, by the way. The horrific nature of Communism was the fault of murderous bastards like Lenin and Stalin.

But as an economist, Marx had a lot of insights into the way capitalism actually works, and I don’t think he was wrong to predict that it would eventually destroy itself.

I think dialectics are a real thing, in politics and economics, and in most aspects of life.

maybe in the second half.

Concrete research? I think I remember reading something once showing that parks with extreme tendencies either way can distort development, but I can’t find it on a quick search and maybe it was just a theory and not something that was actually shown objectively.

In THEORY, I think it IS a problem, particularly extreme hitter’s parks, which can screw up both hitters and pitchers. It can ruin a pitcher’s confidence, but conversley it can also foul up a hitter since he can put up big numbers even with flaws in his approach that would otherwise be exposed.

I know from talking with front office people that many teams consider it a problem, and will try to avoid getting stuck somewhere extreme, though someone always ends up losing the musical chairs game.

I think Vaughn’s tools are better from what i understand. Both of them performed very well but have some issues with their BB/Ks that could lead to problems at higher levels. Vaughn will get a C+, I’m not sure about Cecilliani yet though probably the same.

Undersized, excellent K/BB ratio, strikeouts not so hot, a bit hittable for the league, durable so far. Early report from April said average stuff but I’ll need to lock down a more recent report while i’m doing the book. C+ based on what I know now, could go higher depending on reports

That’s plausable, although i’m not at all convinced that Viciedo will hit enough to be a good regular 1B at this point. He’s got holes.

he’ll start out in AA but probably spend the whole season there given the way the Rays handle pitchers. He might get to AAA in the second half if he’s dominating.

Number two ceiling, more probably a number three. Not that there’s anything wrong with that!

Well the good news is that the book won’t go to press until early January, so I’ll be able to incorporate any last-second health info into the grade. He got a B pre-season and I’ll likely stick with that given the health issue, though he was doing well enough to go to B+ or A- before he got hurt

Yeah it has happened. Scott Richmond was an example, i drafted him in the eighth round in 2005 and he didn’t get drafted at all, but he eventually made the majors as an undrafted guy.

This year, I drafted Jose Iglesias out of Coastal Carolina in the sixth round. However, it turned out that before the draft, he told everyone he wasnt’t interested in playing pro ball. I didn’t know that and certainly would not have drafted him if I had known that, so I switched the pick to Rett Varner a couple of days after the draft. Only time I’ve done that.

Oh, that’s a tough question. I can turn that into a larger post. Remind me in a week if I dont

Thinking B- right now. Straight B is theoretically possible depending on what my sources tell me. I think he’s mostly for real.

I think his upside is seriously underrated.

His K/rate is still way way too high. I don’t think he’s going to make it.

Well I haven’t heard anything “promising”….i have heard about issues with swing mechanics and excess passivity. all the tools are still there, of course. I gave him a B in the book based on high school reports. I’d probably drop that to C+/B- now.

Very down year for the Spinners…not seeing much on that roster that excites me.

Toughie. I still believe in Carter, but Kalish has strong broad-based skills and tools. Kalish will likely exceed rookie limits so I wont’ have to worry about it in the book. :)

I might very well choose Kalish.

he had a good year, but was too old for the level and as a first baseman that’s not a good thing. Grade C.

I don’t see either one of them as huge long-term contributors. i think Martinez has a better glove at this point, more relaible anyway and better range. Gaynor’s got some issues with his swing mechanics that need to be ironed out.

.288 hitter, 30 HRs, 30 2Bs, close to 1:1 K:BB ratio during an average season…

I could see Hosmer as a Palmeiro-type if all goes well, yes.

Keep in mind that the 2010 version of Hosmer is what they were expecting he would be when they drafted him. The eye problem was the issue in 2009.

lol

Santana, Brown, Stanton, Alvarez.

Good tool set from what I understand, including substantial power potential. Has plate discipline issues though, like many players his age. Definitely worth watching, but don’t count chickens yet.

Oh, I really have no idea, I’m sorry.

I don’t know if he’ll really fit at 2B….I think 3B is more likely. I don’t think he’ll have the lower-half quickness needed for 2B.

I don’t buy his ability to hit .300 in the majors, Toronto is not Las Vegas.

I think he can hit .240-.260 with 20+ homers though.

Either trade bait or fourth starter/long reliever in Atlanta.

That may sound discouraging but I like Hoover a lot. But I shadow-drafted him, so I’m probably just biased :)

Well nothing objective to look at yet, so all we have are the scouting reports from high school. He sounds like he’ll be a well above average hitter for a middle infielder, but a lot can happen between ages 18 and 21….does he lose some quickness and have to switch positions? Will he develop power at the expense of batting average and OBP, or will he be a complete hitter? We just don’t know yet. The tools are clearly here but they could go any number of ways.

Well I don’t like the way his performance collapsed in August and September…ERA over 10.00 in his last 10 outings, still struck out 16 in 15 innings but somehow gave up 26 hits. I know he was “working on things” at Oklahoma, tinkering with pitch sequences and stuff, but people often use that as an excuse when a pitcher falls apart or loses their ratios.

I’d still give him a B+ I think but his stock has dropped a hair in my mind.

He showed more power this year but was repeating the level. He’s still a prospect, but he MUST get off to a good start in Triple-A in 2011. Otherwise he risks being buried.

Well…the world series will be the Twins against the Giants.

Oh, I don’t do “odds”….i’m not a gambler.

I expect all of them will see regular major league action, with Machado having the best overall balance between offense and defense if he develops as expected.

Well to answer that properly I’d have to do a full system analysis. Lorenzo Cain finally put his tools together. Erik Komatsu had a really good year….Merklinger, Scarpetta would be other names

I think the mishandling was in 2008 and 2009 when he was pushed up the ladder so fast without getting time to work on his contact issues. He’s only 22 and it is way too young to give up on him.

Not liking what Flowers did this year….I think he went backward. not a bust yet, but heading in that direction. Phegley had limited playing time due to injury, but it looks like he’s got strikeout issues too. He’ll be in the Arizona Fall League and I hope to see him there.

Although I did see Grant Green and thought he was a STUD.

I suspect we’ll see Weeks sometime next year, but to be honest I am not impressed with how he has played so far. I know injuries have been a problem…maybe they run in the family…but I was hoping to see a livelier bat.Maybe he ends up as just a role player

Speed, athleticism, and his outfield defense are all highly-regarded. He makes contact. But many scouts doubt his power.

Desmond Jennings type maybe?

What I heard is that he has his fastball back and his breaking ball has bite, but that his command is taking some time to get back in gear. I don’t know of any plans to make him a starter.

I can’t stop thinking that he produces something along the line of a Jose Guillen.

He thrived in high desert but was just ok on the road.

He’s got some power but I think Double-A will be a challenge for him. If he makes it, Guillen is a good comp.