Double-A Transition Monitor: Kyle Gibson and Dee Gordon
by John Sickels on Sep 15, 2010 6:15 PM EDT
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Double-A Transition Monitor
Kyle Gibson, RHP, Minnesota Twins: 2009 first-rounder Gibson got off to an excellent start in the Florida State League this year: 1.87 ERA with a 40/12 K/BB in 43 innings, 33 hits, 3.67 GO/AP, 3.10 FIP. Promoted to Double-A in May, he posted a 3.68 ERA, 77/22 K/BB in 93 innings, 91 hits, 2.16 GO/AO, 3.23 FIP. The transition to better competition saw his strikeout rate decline and his ground ball percentage drop, moving from 63.9% at Fort Myers to 53.1% at New Britain. A late promotion to Triple-A resulted in 12 hits and five runs in 15.2 innings, with a 9/5 K/BB and a 1.38 GO/AO. Overall, Gibson went 11-6, 2.96 with a 126/39 K/BB in 152 innings, with 136 hits and a 2.31 GO/AO. He was shut down in late August and placed on the DL with an ankle injury, but it wasn't a serious thing and it was done mainly to keep his innings load down. The best news is that Gibson was fully healthy this year, after the injury scare that cost him at least 10 spots in the 2009 draft. I gave him a B- in the book due to concerns about his health, but he's a Grade B+ for me now that he's passed the transition successfuly and proven his health.
Dee Gordon, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers: Dee Gordon skipped a level this year, jumping to Double-A from the Midwest League. The results: .277/.332/.355, -6 percent OPS, compared to .301/.362/.394, +8 percent OPS in 2009. He stole 73 bases in 98 attempts (74%) last year; this dropped to 53 in 73 attempts this year (73%), almost identical. His BB/K ratio was almost the same, 43/90 in 601 PA last year, 40/89 in 614 PA this year, well within what could be expected by random variation. He lost some Isolated Power (.093 last year, .077 this year), but the main difference between the two seasons was batting average, driven by a 32-point decline in BABIP (.355 to .323).
So, was the decline just a matter of worse luck and better Double-A defenses? Scouting reports still point to extremely impressive speed and athleticism, but with a still-raw approach at the plate and on the field. His error rate remains too high. For a positive spin, consider that he did skip a level, and that his hitting components hardly budged at all. I gave him a Grade B+ last year. Right now he's still somewhere in the Grade B range for me and I might leave him at a B+, which would likely strike some as overly optimistic.
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Gordon's still a B+ for me
Held his own while skipping high-A, solid season.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
Gordon
how is a .687 OPS and a .356 SLG for a 22 year old in AA holding his own? That’s pretty bad IMO.
ya
for a top prospect, i definitely wanna see more. he’s still a fine prospect, but i couldn’t go any more than a B right now.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
Age has to be taken differently with Dee
He didnt start playing until his senior season in HS… aka, 4 years. And he is in AA, playing almost the same way that he did in A ball last year. He is very raw still, but I don’t know how you can drop him given that he stayed the same, except two league higher
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Sep 15, 2010 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions
The fact that he hasn't played much baseball previously (and is still very raw at age 22) are arguments against him as a top prospect.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Sep 16, 2010 3:03 AM EDT up reply actions
Eh, I don't think so
The fact that he shows a good hit tool while being in over his head experience wise is enticing. Maybe he doesn’t ever refine his tools, but if he does, he is going to be an elite SS in the majors.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
Because he's a raw athlete who skipped a level
He didn’t take a step forward, but I don’t see any reason to be disappointed either. His wRC+ was 91 this year.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
I agree with B+ for both
However, for comparisons sake, if Gordon gets a ‘pass’ I’m not sure why Chisenhall would have his grade reduced to ‘B’.
chisenhall
I dunno. There is just something intuitive about Chisenhall that makes me think he’s a tad overrated. I can’t prove it, it isn’t objective. Just a feeling.
by John Sickels on Sep 15, 2010 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions
intuition
Frankly, I think it tends to get severely underrated (to the point of outright derision) these days. We’re not living in the era of “gut feelings”, but there are certainly things that we aren’t picking up consciously but are doing so sub-consciously. We shouldn’t look down on intuition; we should just accept it as a factor in the evaluation process which deserves consideration when it comes to every prospect. It seems like “good pedigree + numbers = good prospect” tends to carry the day . . .
Intuition is a big part of prospecting, I think
We’re dealing with uncertainty here and players that, sometimes, aren’t even close to fully maturing physically. There are certain things I look for that will cause a guy to surge up or down for me (athleticism, defensive abilities, future position, tools, an ability to adjust), but so many guys surprise one way or the other that intuition has to be a major part.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
we're similar, really
I’m a fan of guys with good gloves who can hit, like Danny Espinosa (42 on last year’s list) and Peter Bourjos (70? 72? I forget).
You’re a fan of guys with good gloves who can’t hit, like Matt Dominguez. :)
Dumbass deleted?
If so, I applaud the decision.
by King Billy Royal on Sep 16, 2010 12:35 PM EDT reply actions
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