Minors and Callups 9/10
by casejud on Sep 11, 2010 1:56 AM EDT
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Is it too irrational for an outstanding playoff preformance to change ther way one percieves a prospect? I know it's SSS and all but, I like the waysome of these kids respond to the playoff atmosphere.
DiscussLance Lynn K'd 16 for Mephis in the PCL finals
Micheal Taylor hit a BIG 3-run bomb as Sac beat Tacoma in the other PCL series to avoid a sweep. They played at Safeco field as well as Cheney stadium in Tacoma is being removated.
Man-Ban (Manny Banuelos) went 7 shutout innings as Trenton swept it's series v New Hampshire 7-5-0-0-3-5
Brett Jackson homered as Tennessee beat West Tennessee 11-1. Nick Franklin went 2-4 for W.Tennessee.
Engel Beltre hit 2 triples and drove in three in Frisco's loss to Midland in the Texas league playoffs
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matt magill
5 1/3 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 10 K…. 0 hr allowed
9 of 10 Ks were striking out swinging
145 Ks in 131 IP, 93 H
brent morel - majors
1-3, HR
in a FU to scouting reports that say he doesn’t have enough power, first major league hit is a no-doubter to straightaway center.
seriously?
not to be antagonistic, but Mous has better D at 3rd than Lennie and projects to be a better hitter (and his stats this year back it up). I’m betting you’re a Cleveland fan.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Sep 12, 2010 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions
No, I don't think Moustakas's defense is anywhere close to Chisenhall's
Not an Indians fan at all.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
by Jeff Reese on Sep 12, 2010 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Again
Your guys’ old buggaboo, minor league defensive delusion, has reared its ugly head.
Do you guys EVER take a cursory glance at the basic stats? Third -base numbers can be especially telling sometimes
Mike Moustakas has a .935 fpct in 294 games at 3b, not great but Chisenhall has been worse- .922. Actually, minor league fields being what they generally are, and from the reports Ive heard on both, as well as seeing Mous play a few times Id say they are pretty even hands-wise.
Before you begin your speel about errors not meaning anything, Mous has also gotten to a decent amount more balls than Chis as well, 2.69 RF for Mous to 2.33 for Chis.
The biggest difference, and one of the best ways to really guage defensive skill for a 3b in the minors – is double plays started. I’d rather know that ONE piece of info than hear a million “experts” spout thier opinion on a kid’s defensive ability.
Mous has started 70 dp’s in 294 games at 3b
Chis has 33 dps in 196 games at 3b.
Both of these guys were athletic enough to start thier pro career as SS’s, and neither runs well, and Mous has better numbers. I have a hard time believing Chisenhall is better, let alone CLEARLY better.
What evidence is there of that? That doesn’t make any sense really.
May the forces of evil become confused on the way to your house.
-George Carlin
Thank God!
I need all the help I can get :)
Deal with the life you’ve got. Solve the problems you have, rather than fantasizing about a life without them.
-Bill James
Do we really have to go over why errors, range factor and even TotalZone aren't really accurate reflections of defensive value, either for the present or for projection
Errors simply aren’t a good way to judge a fielder. I’d much rather have a fielder that makes a few more errors but gets to significantly more balls. And please don’t act like range factor actually properly credits a fielder for his value.
As for TotalZone, you’re getting close, but even minor league TotalZone has serious flaws given that its calculations are dependent on minor league batted ball data, which is sketchy at best when it comes to differentiating between line drives and fly balls. Some stringers will call an event a fly ball that would be called a line drive by other stringers. It just kills a lot of the accuracy of a statistic that’s already merely a starting point at best when factoring in the minimal sample sizes.
When talking about defense in the minors, ALWAYS take scouting reports over numbers. Defense is a lot easier to judge with the eyes than some other things in the game.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Sep 14, 2010 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
The last line is the only thing I don’t really agree with. I don’t have much confidence in the random untrained eye to judge defense.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
I mean, I don't have confidence in the untrained eye to judge anything
But I think that with some effort, one could learn to judge a defender’s footwork, motions and instincts quicker than judging the mechanisms of hitting or pitching. Maybe that’s just a misconception on my part.
But seriously, I’m a pretty huge supporter of defensive metrics, but I simply don’t buy into what we have for the minor leagues yet. And that’s still while acknowledging that what we have for the majors still needs a ton of work, too.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Sep 14, 2010 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I feel the same way about MiLB defensive metrics
I’ll look at the TZ numbers, but numbers that vastly differ from the scouting, I am inclined to simply ignore.
I don’t know. I have very little faith in my own ability to judge defense, and will always defer to the experts. I find pitching (save mechanics which I feel is mostly sophistry) to be the easiest to “scout”.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
Right
Getting to more balls, turning a LOT more double plays, AND making less errors are ALL meaningless. Duly noted.
How about I’m 38 years old, have waytched a LOT more baseball than you, I HAVE ACTUALLY SEEN Mike Moustakas play 3b a few times, and . . . I know what a good third-baseman looks like!
Deal with the life you’ve got. Solve the problems you have, rather than fantasizing about a life without them.
-Bill James
You're 38? You should have a better grasp of why those stats suck then
You clearly don’t understand the concept of batted ball distribution. Moustakas got more opportunities than Chisenhall, that’s why his range factor is better. It’s not because he has more range. He got to more balls because more balls came to him.
Your evidence is based on personal anecdotal evidence, which I’m not a big fan of without establishing credibility, and a bunch of flawed statistics that don’t properly credit a fielder for what he’s actually done.
I’ll stick to the opinions of respected scouts and talent evaluators, you can go with your eyes and a bunch of seriously-flawed statistics.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Sep 16, 2010 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Dude
You realize that you have NO evidence that Chisenhall had more opportunities right? At least you haven’t presented any – statistical evidence – that he had more opportunities.
Deal with the life you’ve got. Solve the problems you have, rather than fantasizing about a life without them.
-Bill James
I don't care about Chisenhall or Moustakas
And I don’t care about minor league defensive statistics – we don’t have useful ones yet.
I’m not trying to convince you that Chisenhall had more opportunities- I’m trying to convince you that range factor doesn’t accurate represent really anything about a fielder’s skill level.
From Tom Tango, a god of baseball stats: "A major critique of range factor is that it does a better job of measuring fielding opportunities than fielding prowess; players who have more balls hit at them tend to get better range factors than fielers who see fewer balls, given the same level of underlying ability. It also does not seperate out the role of infielders involved in turning double plays, which doesn’t involve “range” at all."
Range factor isn’t useful.
TotalZone isn’t useful yet at the minor league level because we need accurate batted ball data, and it’s a far-from-perfect system even with accurate data.
Errors and double plays made are worthless.
I just don’t want to hear about minor league numbers for defense- I want to hear about scouting reports from reputable sources.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Sep 16, 2010 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Sure
Me too but, the probelm is when one “reputable source” says a player is great, and another says the same player is terrible, and another ays he is average.
I’ve read 4-5 reports saying Moustakas was “brilliant” at the futures game- “solid” a bunch of other places- and most of the reports thgat said he wasn’t going to be good were just people saying they didn’t think he “looked” like a 3b.
And, by the way, I wish you could be more reasonable Satch. Double plays started is an excellent way to see if a minor league can play 3b. Not making errors, especially on minor league fields, is also very telling.
Just because range factor has biases, doesn’t mean that it isn’t a good, general way to see how much range a guy has – even now. Not a good idea to toss it out just because somebody wrote something bad about a guy. Unless I hear something, first-person from someone I trust, I trust the numbers more.
They are just so far from worthless but, I guess there Is no use discussing it more because your mind is closed to the topic.
Deal with the life you’ve got. Solve the problems you have, rather than fantasizing about a life without them.
-Bill James
Yeah, but you can't make conclusions from those numbers
You can use them to reinforce what you’ve heard/read from scouting reports- if a guy is said to be a good defender and he doesn’t make many errors, then he’s probably a good defender.
But if there’s a lot of disagreement about a player’s defensive value, the MiLB statistics that we have available to us don’t really tell us enough to sway one in any particular direction.
Range factor is a hugely flawed statistic, especially when we’re talking about the minimal sample sizes that minor league experiences produce.
I’m sure that you know that I’m a huge numbers guy- I just don’t think that we have the right numbers to look at minor leaguers yet.
Here’s the way I view Moose’s defense, since we honestly haven’t really talked about that yet: I think he’s actually pretty solid now, with below-average range but decent enough instincts and a strong enough arm that he’s still a solid average overall defender in spite of his range. The concern isn’t with his defense now- it’s with his defense in the near-future. I think that he’s more than good enough for now- I’m worried about five years from now.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Sep 16, 2010 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I just don't have the energy to go through this again.
Someone recently (Callis or KG or Pilliere) questioned again if Mous will stick at 3B long term. I will try to find this but I think it was on twitter. Also, Chiz had a shoulder injury for a decent portion of the season.
Bullpen Banter
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twitter: @alskor
Recharge
You will need your energy for this one because there ain’t a damned thing wrong with Moustakas as a thirdbaseman.
I am not really arguing that Chis is a decent to good to great 3b. I am arguing that Moustakas is “Not even close” to Chisenhall. That just isn’t correct. Mous is probably better and now you have added “healthier” to it as well.
I laugh when I here people say Moustakas will end up in Lf or Rf. He has the hands, instincts giving him solid range, and a terrific arm for 3b. If he ever lost agility he would move over to 1b and be fantastic there, not the OF. That would be rediculous- thats where you stick somebody who can’t field a grounder -and can run. The arm would play though.
The report you heard, especially if it was from KG, is erroneous.
Deal with the life you’ve got. Solve the problems you have, rather than fantasizing about a life without them.
-Bill James
There is nothing wrong with Moustakas as a 3B
He’ll be okay there. I think Chiz will be better.
The issues I don’t want to go through again involve your usage of select minor league fielding statistics and the conclusions your’re drawing from them. We just went through this and I don’t think I have anything to add.
Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor
okay, I gotta admit, casejud has a pretty compelling case here
Yeah, Chisenhall was hurt earlier this year . . .but that doesn’t account for the disparity in TotalZone in previous seasons.
He listed an awful lot of fielding statistics there. He even has personal first-hand accounts of one of the two players in question. I don’t believe Callis/Goldstein/Piliere have that, although they do have secondhand accounts.
Quantitative data, qualitative data . . .if only casejud would do this all the time, we’d have like half the posts around here that we do. ;)
Chisenhall - moved to 3B beginning of last season and learned on the job.
The vast majority of his errors last season were in April/May.
Goldstein and Pilliere see plenty of games live, too. For instance, KG just mentioned he saw Shelby Miller for the fourth time last week. I’d wager Callis does as well – but only 99% on that while I know for a fact the other two do. Pilliere is a former scout.
Also, the case he’s making is against a strawman. The argument above was not that Mous had to move – just that Chisenhall projects as a significantly better 3B. Mous is not as athletic, though he does have a better arm. I see Chiz as a plus 3B and Mous as slightly below average.
He’s really misusing the stats as well. The amount of balls got to is not significant, as we discussed with him last time. In the minors, in such a small sample many, many things affect the amount of chances a player gets. Teams faced, league, park, random grouping, team pitching staff, etc… I really don’t think anyone actually projects Mous as having more range than Chisenhall.
Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor
I didn't "select" any stat
I included EVERY basic stat for a 3b there is – fielding percentage, range factor, and double plays turned- and a couple of other guys have said that TZ likes Mous better.
You see Chis as a plus 3b and see Mous as a below average one – and you are not correct there. You would probably say so yourself if you saw Mous play for a series or two.
By the way, there is nothing particularily athletic about Lonnie Chisenhall. I’ve heard him described as slow quite a few times.
The larger point is THIS – and you really should take a look at it. Minor league fields are atrocious so a guy who has 55 errors to 70 dps turned in 294 games played can most likely REALLY play 3b. This is not hand-picking a stat. Errors to DP ratio is extremely indicative of who can play that position -especially in the minors!
Its an silly conversation anyways. Didn’t you watch the futures game? The one play he made there showed off his agility, hands, arm strength AND accuracy. He’s actualy a HELL of a good thirdbaseman.
You say thyere is niothing wrong with him at third, then say he is below average. He isn’t, he’s really good over there and remember I told you so okay?
Deal with the life you’ve got. Solve the problems you have, rather than fantasizing about a life without them.
-Bill James
Errors to DP ratio is extremely indicative of who can play that position -especially in the minors!
No, its not. Look at the Errors to DP ratio in the minors for 3B currently in the majors. There is zero correlation. Does not have any connection whatsoever. You’re just making stuff up now. I understand intuitively you think this makes sense… there is no correlation. You’ve latched on to a few pieces of logic and twisted them to fit your argument. The evidence we have does not logically lead to the conclusions you’ve drawn.
You know my take on the rest. Are you serious about one play convincing me? Moustakas is 5’11, 230 (maybe more). Chisenhall is 6’1, 200. Moustakas has a great arm, but Im taking Chisenhall as the better 3B… and I’m not JUST basing this on body types, every major expert disagrees with your assertion that Moustakas is a “HELL of a good thirdbaseman.”
Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor
I'm working on that study now
.. that shows that there IS a correlation there- a strong one. I’ve always wanted to do it anyways so, thanks for the motivation.
Deal with the life you’ve got. Solve the problems you have, rather than fantasizing about a life without them.
-Bill James
Irrational for a playoff performance to change a perspective?
Nah, I think it can be fine…perhaps irrational in some cases to refuse to do so, even.
Longoria jumps to mind for me. Back when his MLB future was still debatable (you know, when Brignac vs. Longoria was a real argument), he moved up a level and was mediocre in a brief performance in the regular season, but hit well in the playoffs. The decision about whether to include the playoffs or not definitely affected ones assessment of how well he’d made the transition up.
Also
Major league teams see it as important too perhaps. I notice teams every year call up kids to a higher level and put them in a tough environment, in a playoff atmosphere on a new club, and see how they handle it. Just noticing a lot of propects taking the bull by the horns in the playoff this year also -Eric Hosmer has been a BEAST!
May the forces of evil become confused on the way to your house.
-George Carlin
this would be a good fanpost topic
if you had the time
true, true
I’m mildly surprised that Wil Myers isn’t with NW Arkansas, just to give him a few extra ABs against some good competition. Grant Green is with Midland as their DH. Robbie Ross started for Frisco in the elimination game the other day and got hit around, although I thought he looked intriguing and a little unlucky. Minor league win-loss records may not mean much in the long run, but as anybody who has actually watched a minor league game can tell you, don’t tell the players that!
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