Travis Snider

by emarc on Sep 1, 2010 4:21 PM EDT

First post, so I'm not 100% sure what I'm doing. Just wanted to see what you guys thought of Travis Snider and his future. So far in the show, he really hasn't done much, and his 2008 debut looked more impressive than what he's doing now. Born in '88 he's still got youth on his side, but what will he do when he matures? Do you think he'll be the kind of player that can really impact his team with power and OBP or do you think he'll be a role player at best?

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He's still very, very young and he's been hampered by injuries.

His star might not shine as bright as it did a couple of years ago, but there are things to like and things to dislike.

Like: .199 ISO this season. In the future, he could easily be a 30-HR player. Especially in Toronto where balls seem to fly out with regularity.

Dislike: 30.3 career K%. He absolutely needs to walk more and strikeout less. When he cuts his K’s, how much power will he sacrifice?

It seemed like he was starting to put some things together before he got hurt early in the year. And he hasn’t done great in August.

For me this season is a wash. But even as a wash, he hasn’t displayed enough power and walks to make up for strikeouts and he’s not an elite defender.

He could be a .280/.350/.500 player in his prime with 30-HR – but not a star.

by Kenneth Arthur on Sep 1, 2010 4:48 PM EDT reply actions

I think you are underrating him...

I think hes a .300 hitter with 30+ home runs in his prime. Thats a star in my book, as there are only about 10-12 guys who do that every year.

People forget that hes in his third ML season, but is still younger then most of the guys who were on the top 25 at the start of this season..

by ADLC on Sep 1, 2010 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Guys who strike out as much as he does don't hit .300

by nixa37 on Sep 1, 2010 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions

His K rate is 27% this year, down from 32% last year

Considering he is still only 22, I would have to think that it will improve a bit over the next few years.

Ryan Howard hit .313 a few years ago with a K rate of 31%
Austin Jackson is hitting .305 with a K rate of 27%
David Wright his .307 last season with a K rate of 26%
Shin-Soo Choo and Justin Upton hit .300 last season with a K rate of 26%
BJ upton hit .300 with a K rate of 33%

by nyy601 on Sep 2, 2010 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

I don't think he was talking about a 1 year fluke, but a yearly thing

Unless you think Snider is a .360-.370 BABIP guy or that he really lowers his K rate (while upping his power), I just don’t see it.

by nixa37 on Sep 2, 2010 8:24 AM EDT up reply actions

Agreed.

Very rarely do guys that swing-and-miss on 12% of their swings end up hitting .300 year-in, year-out.

I think at this point he’s closer to being a .265-.275 kind of guy. I’m becoming less convinced that he’ll be a star, but I still think he’s close to a lock to become a solid regular.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Sep 3, 2010 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions

There's been plenty of seasons where a player has hit 30+ home runs and not been all that valuable.

If you do a Baseball Reference search for players with >30 HR and <2 WAR, you get 119 examples. Dante Bichette hit .340 with 40 HR in 1995 and had .3 WAR by their standards.

Not saying this is Travis Snider. Just saying he’s going to have to do more than just hit home runs.

by Kenneth Arthur on Sep 2, 2010 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions

Psh, what about Bichette's 1999?

How the hell do you hit 34 homers and 133 RBI with a .298/.354/.541 line and put up a minus-2.8 WAR?

I mean, Rally had his defense at -34 in left field and his base-running at -6, and his offensive production was essentially average given that Coors was an absolute bandbox at the time.

I think that if Snider can put up 30+ homers and play solid defense in this era, he’ll be a damn good player. Bichette’s numbers were just pumped up by Coors and the era he played in, not to mention that TotalZone absolutely hated his defense. Bichette is more the exception than the rule, because Rally thought so little of his defense/baserunning.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Sep 3, 2010 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Well as I said, there are 119 such seasons of 30+ HR and less than 2 WAR.. per BR of course, but you can be below average and hit 30 homers.

Again, I’m not saying that this is Snider – just that he hasn’t yet displayed a whole bunch of tools. He’s young, he’s got stuff to work on. I am still keeping an eye on him myself because he had a short little stretch run before he got hurt in which he played pretty good.

by Kenneth Arthur on Sep 3, 2010 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh, of course.

I don’t know about you, but I immediately think of Mike Jacobs in 2008: 32 homers in 519 PA, but a low walk rate, low BABIP, and awful defensive numbers made him essentially a replacement-level player.

The thing is, I see no reason to believe that Snider is that kind of player. Better contact skills, better plate discipline, far more potential for defensive value as a corner outfielder. I have a hard time believing that Snider won’t be at the very least an above-average regular if he’s hitting 25-30+ homers annually.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Sep 4, 2010 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions