2010 Toronto Blue Jays Top 20 Prospects in Review
Here is a review of the 2010 Blue Jays prospect list, originally published December 23, 2009. THIS IS A REVIEW OF THE OLD LIST AND PRE-SEASON GRADES. THIS IS NOT A NEW LIST. The 2011 list and new grades won't be ready until the season is over and I start writing the book.
1) Brett Wallace, 1B-3B, Grade B+: .301/.359/.509 for Vegas, 6-for-21 so far since being traded to Houston. His plate discipline has slipped and as first baseman now he really has to hit, but I wonder if there has been a bit of an overreaction with his reputation. But on the other hand, for some reason he's been traded three times now. Seems a bit odd.
2) Zach Stewart, RHP, Grade B+: 3.67 ERA, 92/48 K/BB in 115 innings for Double-A New Hampshire, 108 hits. Much better recently after a slow start. I took a gamble rating him so highly but I don't regret it.
3) Kyle Drabek, RHP, Grade B+: 2.92 ERA, 110/54 K/BB in 142 innings, 110 hits for New Hampshire. I'll rank him slightly ahead of Stewart now.
4) Travis d'Arnaud, C, Grade B: .259/.315/.411 for High-A Dunedin. Has caught 30% of runners, other defensive stats are strong. Would like to see an offensive step forward next year.
5) Chad Jenkins, RHP, Grade B-: 3.63 ERA, 64/13 K/BB in 79 innings, 87 hits for Low-A Lansing, 4.66 ERA, 30/10 K/BB in 46 innings for Dunedin, 55 hits. Great K/BB ratios, but quite hittable. Gets ground balls at least.
6) David Cooper, 1B, Grade B-: .238/.306/.417 for New Hampshire. More homers this year with 15, but at the expense of OBP. Stock is slipping very quickly.
7) Josh Roenicke, RHP, Grade C+: 3.53 ERA, 44/17 K/BB in 43 innings for Las Vegas, 4.97 ERA, 12/11 K/BB in 13 innings in the majors. Has the stuff, but command still a big problem and he's 28 now.
8) Henderson Alvarez, RHP, Grade C+: 4.12 ERA, 74/24 K/BB in 103 innings for Dunedin, 127 hits. Gets grounders, hittable, good command, young at 20. Breakthrough candidate for next year.
9) Carlos Perez, C, Grade C+: .302/.389/.481 for Auburn in the NY-P. I am liking this one a lot, will rank highly on next list.
10) Brad Mills, LHP, Grade C+: 4.20 ERA, 85/39 K/BB in 96 innings for Vegas, 92 hits. Pretty solid numbers considering the environment.
11) Jake Marisnick, OF, Grade C+: .287/.373/.459 in 35 games for GCL Jays, just up to Lansing where he is .233/.258/.367 so far in eight games. 15 steals in 17 attempts combined. Love the tools. Plate discipline a question.
12) Eric Thames, OF, Grade C+: .287/.366/.514, 21 homers, 42 walks, 100 strikeouts in 418 at-bats for New Hampshire. Showed what he can do when he is healthy. Should be strong platoon bat.
13) Brad Emaus, 2B, Grade C+: .287/.403/.472 between New Hampshire and Vegas, 68/57 BB/K in 341 at-bats. Love the bat control and plate discipline, tools decent.
14) Ryan Schimpf, 2B, Grade C+: .234/.329/.414 for Lansing, six homers but 10 triples and 22 doubles. Some gap power, but I thought he could do better than this.
15) Dan Farquhar, RHP, Grade C+: 4.34 ERA, 63/35 K/BB in 58 innings for New Hampshire, 44 hits. Like the Ks and the low Hs, needs to get the walks down.
16) Robert Bell, RHP, Grade C+: 6.24 ERA at New Hampshire, 34/12 K/BB in 49 innings, 63 hits, 11 homers. Now on rehab assignment following injury.
17) J.P. Arencibia, C, Grade C: .303/.360/.639 for Las Vegas, went 4-for-5 with two homers in his first game with the Jays. I was very skeptical about him entering 2010. His numbers last year were quite poor, and when I saw him in person for Vegas last year he looked awful, flailing at everything. He's improved greatly this year without question, although I do wonder what his batting average will look like long-term, though it won't matter much with firepower of this magnitude.
18) Justin Jackson, SS, Grade C: .232/.312/.290 for Lansing in 155 AB, 18 walks, 50ks. No skill growth at all. Despite his tools and the fact that he is still just 21, I no longer see much reason for optimism.
19) Reidier Gonzalez, RHP, Grade C: This didn't go so hot....8.63 ERA, 74/53 K/BB, 200 hits in 122 innings between Vegas and New Hampshire.
20) Tim Collins, LHP, Grade C: Traded to Braves then Royals. 2.10 ERA, 91/22 K/BB in 56 innings, 33 hits combined between New Hampshire, Mississippi, and Omaha. Expect to see him in KC next year and I think he'll do well.
The big news of course is Arencibia, who got some command of the strike zone and unleashed his power. He looked so bad last year at Vegas, in person and on paper, that I was very doubtful he could do this. Carlos Perez is also an interesting young catcher, and the Stewart/Drabek combo should be able to help next year. I like Thames a lot. Too bad about Justin Jackson though.