2010 San Diego Padres Top 20 Pre-Season Prospects in Review
by John Sickels on Aug 8, 2010 11:00 AM EDT
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2010 San Diego Padres Top 20 Prospects in Review
Here is a review of the 2010 Padres prospect list, originally published December 7, 2009. THIS IS A REVIEW OF THE OLD LIST AND PRE-SEASON GRADES. THIS IS NOT A NEW LIST. The 2011 list and new grades won't be ready until the season is over and I start writing the book.
1) Donavan Tate, OF, Grade B+: Hitting .227/.343/.352 in 24 games in rookie ball, 40 strikeouts in 88 at-bats. He's swiped seven bases in eight attempts and has drawn some walks, but his strikeout rate is unacceptably high. The tools are here, but he is very very raw, and the constant injuries haven't helped.
2) Simon Castro, RHP, Grade B+: 3.07 ERA, 87/31 K/BB in 106 innings for Double-A San Antonio, 87 hits. I wish his strikeout rate was a bit higher but overall he's having another good season.
3) James Darnell, 3B, Grade B: .242/.327/.377 in 73 games for San Antonio. Good plate discipline, 31/43 BB/K in 265 at-bats, but injuries and lack of power have hurt his stock.
4) Jaff Decker, OF, Grade B: .243/.349/.451 for High-A Lake Elsinore, 37/73 BB/K in 257 at-bats. I don't like the deterioration in his BB/K this year, but he's done better after a slow start, hitting .285/.413/.556 in his last 40 games with a 29/32 BB/K.
5) Wynn Pelzer, RHP, Grade B: 4.20 ERA, 83/56 K/BB in 94 innings for San Antonio, 102 hits. Traded to Orioles, being used in relief at Bowie, 5/1 K/BB in first four innings. I still like him despite some command troubles this year.
6) Everett Williams, OF, Grade B: .226/.324/.334 with 41/110 BB/K in 296 at-bats for Low-A Fort Wayne. Eaten up by strikeouts so far.
7) Logan Forsythe, 3B, Grade B-: .269/.394/.357 in 283 at-bats for San Antonio, 58 walks, 71 strikeouts in 283 at-bats, 12 steals. Steals and high walk rate are good to see, adapting ok to new position at second base, lack of power notable. Still see him as a possible Joe Randa.
8) Edinson Rincon, 3B, Grade B-: .259/.322/.395 for Fort Wayne, 35 walks, 73 strikeouts, nine homers, 27 doubles in 413 at-bats. Just 19 years old, I still think he has considerable potential.
9) Cory Luebke, LHP, Grade C+: 3.06 ERA, 70/22 K/BB in 88 innings between Double-A and Triple-A Portland, 67 hits allowed. Having a solid campaign.
10) Aaron Poreda, LHP, Grade C+: Has walked 58 in 49 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. Unless that improves he'll never live up to his potential.
11) Lance Zawadski, SS, Grade C+: .231/.298/.298 in 61 games in Triple-A, .200/.300/.257 in 20 games in the majors. I still think he could be a very interesting player.
12) Rymer Liriano, OF, Grade C+: Hit .191/.234/.293 in 50 games for Fort Wayne, sent down to Eugene in June and has hit .292/.339/.404. 28 steals overall. Strike zone judgment is weak.
13) Sawyer Carroll, OF, Grade C+: .242/.323/.339 for San Antonio, 45 walks, 99 strikeouts in 384 at-bats. Other than drawing some walks he's not doing much.
14) Drew Cumberland, INF, Grade C+: .365/.404/.542 with 20 steals in 60 games for Lake Elsinore. Hurt his knee shortly after being promoted to San Antonio. Very promising player if he can avoid the doctors.
15) Kellen Kulbacki, OF, Grade C+: .215/.284/.319 in 39 games for San Antonio before hurting his shoulder again. Hasn't been healthy in two years.
16) Adys Portillo, RHP, Grade C+: 6.21 ERA with 36/29 K/BB in 38 innings for Eugene, 38 hits. Good strikeout rate, but command problems have been serious this year.
17) Keyvius Sampson, RHP, Grade C+: 3.10 ERA, 54/15 K/BB in 41 innings for Eugene, 29 hits. I love this guy; his stock is rising strongly with me.
18) Jonathan Galvez, SS, Grade C+: .239/.346/.359 for Fort Wayne, 48 walks, 15 steals. Strikeout rate is too high (97 in 88 games) but I still think he could turn into a good player.
19) Jerry Sullivan, RHP, Grade C+: 4.50 ERA, 78/25 K/BB in 94 innings, 103 hits for Fort Wayne. I thought he could do better than this.
20) Eric Sogard, 2B, Grade C+: Traded to Oakland, hitting .299/.385/.384 with 55/50 BB/K in 401 at-bats in Triple-A. A pretty decent season though he lacks power.
21) Jeremy Hefner, RHP, Grade C+: 2.76 ERA, 84/27 K/BB in 131 innings for San Antonio, 118 hits. A solid season with little to complain about, though I'd like more strikeouts.
The Padres got a lot of praise from traditionalists last year for drafting tools players Tate and Williams. Unfortunately both have been unimpressive this year. Of course, many of the more statheady players haven't had great campaigns, either. I thought this system was hugely underrated heading into the season, but it hasn't been a wonderful year.
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Yikes
There is still a lot of potential in this system but man they have had a bad year on the farm. I like Cumberland a lot, if he can only stay healthy.
I just don’t understand why everyone is so down on Decker. HIs bat seems legit, he struggled early with some injuries but is rebounding very nicely. I also still question the people who just assume he has zero chance to be an average defender, heck a lot of people here think he has zero chance to be a slightly below average fielder.
This is a very odd system to me. Good mix of toolsy high ceiling guys, and solid skill guys who don’t have that high of a ceiling. There are a lot of players to watch though, very interesting system.
Reading the tea leaves from San Antonio
The Wolff has always been a pitcher-friendly park, but this year, some of the Missions’ home/road splits are just absurdly crazy.
I’m not sure whether James Darnell (179/.262/.269 vs .299/.384/.480), Logan Forsythe (.203/.307/.271 vs .333/.473/.444), Matt Clark (209/.266/.368 vs 308/.379/.540) and Blake Tekotte (169/.206/.354 vs 333/.388/.556) are closer to the duds they’ve been at home or the impressive offensive players they’ve been elsewhere…
Also not sure what it says about Castro’s season.
maybe
I’d go:
Darnell – still impressive tools-wise but needs an offseason to get healthy and needs to move off 3B
Forsythe – I understand why the stats guys like him but he doesn’t do very much at all for me other than an okay (but not more than that) glove at 2B and patience at the plate
Clark – This one is interesting. Clark has excellent legit power, but he’s a big guy with a correspondingly big zone and when I’ve seen him, he doesn’t have a very discerning eye. Maybe the Wolff (which produces some pretty massive shadows between the mound and batter’s box in late afternoon/early evening) is to blame?
Tekotte – That’s an interesting one as well. I haven’t been too impressed when I have seen him (I think Cedric Hunter looks like a better player, honestly), but maybe he could play himself up into a utility outfielder role.
Would love more of your read on Tekotte
The word I had from Elsinore this year was that he was showing some good skills.
Also, I still want to know your comp for Cumberland! :)
by realitypolice on Aug 8, 2010 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions
tekotte
I’ve only seen him here-and-there with all the movement going on in the SA outfield, but he just doesn’t really stand out for me. His tools are pretty respectable, average across the board with the speed a bit better than that, but there’s nothing exceptional about them. His approach against LHPs is pretty raw and is going to need some work; I’m surprised he has shown as much power against them as he has, and would not expect that to last. So he’s a maybe-a-CF-maybe-not who probably is a platoon guy and isn’t a spectacular hitter anyways.
It’d be interesting to see him play outside of SA, maybe the park factor is legitimate.
Probably should mention
Cory Luebke was traded to the Indians.
Need a fantasy fix? Come visit http://www.fantasycafe.com/ for all your basketball, baseball and football needs!
I’m curious where Gyorko ends up in this system come winter. He really has had a nice debut, if a place like BA gets just a couple of decent defensive reports he could really shoot up the list as far as I’m concerned. I never bought into Darnell, I see no reason why Gyorko couldn’t get that kind of love quickly in this system.
The home/road splits on guys like Darnell and Forsythe are insane. They’re having deceptively good years.
I saw Decker in Lake Elsinore this year, and he actually looks pretty good in LF. He made a terrific catch the game I saw.
But yeah, pretty disappointing year for a lot of the hitters outside of Cumberland. Gyorko absolutely raked in Eugene, so that’s nice to see.
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