Top 20 Pre-Season Los Angeles Dodgers Prospects in Review
by John Sickels on Aug 6, 2010 12:00 PM EDT
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2010 Los Angeles Dodgers Top 20 Prospects in Review
Here is a review of the 2010 Dodgers prospect list, originally published December 26, 2009. THIS IS A REVIEW OF THE OLD LIST AND PRE-SEASON GRADES. THIS IS NOT A NEW LIST. The 2011 list and new grades won't be ready until the season is over and I start writing the book.
1) Dee Gordon, SS, Grade B+: .279/.327/.367 for Double-A Chattanooga, 40 steals, caught 16 times, defense remains erratic. His stock has dropped a bit in my mind but he's still intriguing.
2) Chris Withrow, RHP, Grade B+: 5.05 ERA, 91/51 K/BB in 98 innings for Chattanooga, 103 hits. Reports on stuff are still good, but command is giving him trouble. Stock down slightly for me.
3) Ethan Martin, RHP, Grade B: 5.61 ERA, 94/67 K/BB in 103 innings for High-A Inland Empire, 104 hits. Good strikeout rate, but like Withrow his command is problematic.
4) Aaron Miller, LHP, Grade B: 2.77 ERA, 75/35 K/BB in 75 innings for Inland Empire, but 7.04 ERA with 22/18 K/BB in 23 innings for Chattanooga. Command has slipped after promotion. Still like his ceiling.
5) Josh Lindblom, RHP, Grade B: 6.34 ERA with 70/27 K/BB in 77 innings for Triple-A Albuquerque, 113 hits allowed. ERA in relief is 4.91 with better peripherals, and that's likely where his future lies.
6) Scott Elbert, LHP, Grade B-: 4.98 ERA with 45/34 K/BB in 43 innings for Albuquerque. Serious command troubles. Left team in early June.
7) Andrew Lambo, OF, Grade B-: .271/.325/.411 in 50 Double-A games. Drug suspension, then traded to Pittsburgh. Young enough at 22 (next week) to rebound if he gets his head out of his rear.
8) Garrett Gould, RHP, Grade B-: 4.91 ERA with 26/13 K/BB in 33 innings for rookie-level Ogden, 38 hits allowed. Numbers not impressive at this point, but sample is small, upside is still here.
9) Ivan DeJesus, SS, Grade B-: .288/.327/.396 for Albuquerque. Not impressive for that team/level. Walk rate way down for one thing.
10) Allen Webster, RHP, Grade C+: 10-7, 2.56 with 88/44 K/BB in 98 innings for Great Lakes in the Midwest League, 87 hits. Reports are positive about his stuff, but command will need to sharpen up to avoid fate of Martin and Withrow at higher levels.
11) Trayvon Robinson, OF, Grade C+: .308/.396/.458, 31 steals in 42 attempts, 50 walks, 98 strikeouts in 354 at-bats in Double-A. Has hit very well after a slow April. Stock going up.
12) Kenley Jansen, RHP, Grade C+: 1.60 ERA, 78/23 K/BB in 45 innings, 29 hits between High-A and Double-A, has looked great in three major league innings. Outstanding K/IP and H/IP ratios. Walk rate was still higher than ideal in the minors, but he's made huge progress overall.
13) Nate Eovaldi, RHP, Grade C+: 4.45 ERA, 58/33 K/BB in 85 innings for Inland Empire, 99 hits. Component ratios are not impressive, scouting reports mixed. On DL right now with oblique strain.
14) Kyle Russell, OF, Grade C+: Killed the Cal League at .354/.448/.692, but strikeouts are killing him in Double-A, .228/.293/.405 with 64 whiffs in 44 games. Still has excellent power potential but has to make better contact.
15) Brett Wallach, RHP, Grade C+: 3.48 ERA, 96/46 K/BB in 89 innings in the Midwest League, 81 hits. Traded to the Cubs. Doing OK, not great but not bad, like the strikeouts.
16) Jonathan Garcia, OF, Grade C+: .319/.380/.511 for Ogden in the Pioneer League. 18 years old, toolsy of a bit undersized at 5-11, strong throwing arm.
17) Lucas May, C, Grade C: .284/.345/.488 combined between Double-A and Triple-A, 14 homers, 27/71 BB/K in 303 at-bats, defense still erratic. Traded to Royals. I don't see him as a future regular.
18) Xavier Paul, OF, Grade C: .348/.404/.635 in Triple-A, .231/.277/.314 in the majors. I still think he can be a useful reserve outfielder but isn't likely to get beyond that.
19) Tony Delmonico, C, Grade C: .281/.414/.374 in 53 games between Inland Empire and AZL rehab assignment for wrist injury. No power, but has good strike zone judgment. Already 23 and needs to take step forward next year.
20) Pedro Baez, 3B, Grade C: .268/.312/.368 in 54 games for Inland Empire, weak plate discipline being a problem, also needs work on defense. Skills are stagnant.
Most of the top pre-season Dodgers guys have slipped or remain about the same, although Jansen and Robinson took steps forward. There seems to be a pattern of command problems with the group of young, hard-throwing pitchers.
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Do you think its just a coincidence
That a lot of the pitchers have had control problems or could it be a problem with player development?
by TRISTAR on Aug 6, 2010 12:22 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
not sure
Not sure. It often goes with the territory, young HS RHP. It could be a coaching issue, but I don’t know.
by John Sickels on Aug 6, 2010 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm optimistically hoping that it is the former
Additionally, Martin was a mid-first rounder, the rest very low first round or below, so these are not the top few HS pitchers in the draft either. (I know John knows this.)
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
it is because we drafted high school pitchers
who throw hard but have control problems. Think of Billingsley and Kershaw. We figure we get them away from possible damage in HS and college and get them into the professional rankings quickly
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Aug 7, 2010 2:41 AM EDT up reply actions
Holy crap.
The first 9 prospects on this list have either sucked, been traded, or left baseball for a while. This makes me sad.
"Stop exploding you cowards!!!"
I know this is just an update to the offseason list and rankings
but it is funny to see a Dodger minor-league article today without the name Jerry Sands in it.
The commenter formerly known as El Lay Dave.
The way everything is going
Sands or Jansen could very well end up number 1 on this list for next year. Funny to think about.
"Stop exploding you cowards!!!"
I don't see it
Sure, they’ve had great seasons, but one is a reliever and the other is an all bat prospect. I’d still rather gamble on Dee Gordon, Trayvon, or the three pitchers.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
Sands is by no means a bad fielder
He’s not a plus fielder, but he’s not Andrew Lambo out there.
You bring up a good point about Trayvon, because I forgot about him in that he has been doing so well he could potentially take that number 1 spot by next year. Gordon has been doing crappy, same with Withrow, I think they could still end up being good, but for the start of 2011, neither one of them should really be the number 1 guy.
"Stop exploding you cowards!!!"
Dee hasn't been that bad
He certainly hasn’t taken any steps forward, but his actual performance is acceptable considering his (lack of) refinement and that he jumped 2 levels.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
In fact, it seems that his big problem is facing LHP
Here are his splits:
vs LHP: .209/.269/.276 8BB/28K
vs RHP: .317/.358/.414 17BB/38K
http://bullpenbanter.com/
I'm not sure what people expected Gordon to do...
after completely skipping A+. A to AA is a huge jump for a hitter, and the fact that he didn’t fall on his face is extremely encouraging to me.
that's my guess
Trayvon at #1, has the offense/defense/speed on the paths package and some pop. Maybe Sands after that, and then Dee Gordon #3 based on tools?
Sands isnt all bat
He is expected to be able to stay in RF and be at least average to above average. He also has 17 steals on the year. He is a 4 tool prospect, as his speed is probably just average to slightly above average
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Aug 7, 2010 2:42 AM EDT up reply actions
No, but I don't see how that matters
There are questions about whether he can stick and he’s playing a lot of games at 1B. I think extremely optimistic to think he can play in the OF.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
Best I've heard
is LF. Since when does he have the arm for RF?
by blackoutyears on Aug 8, 2010 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions
he has always had the arm
The only reason he plays 1b in AA is because others were already in RF. His arm has never been questioned, but rather his athleticism was question. As the report said, he is big but surprisingly athletic.
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Aug 8, 2010 10:55 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Well
I’m referring to reports since he’s started playing OF this year. I wish I had them at hand. They indicated he was a LF at best at the major league level.
by blackoutyears on Aug 9, 2010 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions
If you want some good ones to look at
Check out:
Gerald (Jerry) Sands
Kenley Jansen
Allen Webster
Blake Smith
Mario Songco
Matt Magill
Rubby De La Rosa
Brian Cavazos-Galvez
Then recently drafted:
Leon Landry
Jake Lemmerman
"Stop exploding you cowards!!!"
horrible year for last year's top rated prospects
but a good amount of other players in the system has stepped up.
I really like Rubby De La Rosa and he’s a big time sleeper for everyone. Travyon is a CFer that projects as a top of the order bat with a .399 OBP and 31 SB so far. And Jerry Sands has as much raw power as anyone in the minor leagues (and his defense isn’t really that bad).
So we've had 5 of these now, how would you guys rank these 5 systems?
1. Royals
2. Braves
3. Mariners
4. Mets
5. Dodgers
Seems reasonable. Depending on your feelings of the top 3 in each of the Mariners/Mets systems, you could possibly flip those two around. I really like Flores, pretty meh on Mejia (since I think he will be a RP in the end), and have never been high on Martinez so I’d agree with the way you have them.
Dodgers minors have really struggled
but don;t be surprised if they are in the top 10 next year at this time
by SeanMillerSavior on Aug 6, 2010 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
That's the ceiling
But I will be surprised. This year they have been pretty crappy and asking them to improve dramatically over a course of a year is a tall order.
And they probably won't be signing their first rounder.
and aren’t really compensating for it with later overslots.
I want to see Logan White work with a huge scouting/draft budget (even on a smaller market team).
Needs moar dingerz.
I am a big Ethan Martin fan...
But man has he been getting hit around in the CAL this year. Any reports on his stuff?
His stuff is still good
just control is hurting him. Also, he is getting killed at the high desert(an division rivals home park), and has pitched there in something like 4 of his first 10 starts..
He is inconsistent. Some great starts followed by really bad ones
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Aug 7, 2010 2:45 AM EDT up reply actions
Agreed
And for those who don’t know: the Cal league is an absolute nightmare for pitchers. Almost every stadium is very hitter friendly with Adelanto and Lancaster both being total launching pads. I wouldn’t worry so much about the raw hitting numbers against Martin, but his control is the thing to watch.
I think we pulled a fast one on the dodgers
when we traded Dotel for Lambo and McDonald
Players who should be in the Hall of Fame: Pat TIllman, Dwight White, Donnie Shell, L.C. Greenwood, Ray Guy, Steve Tasker, Greg Llyod, Andy Russel, Cris Carter, Kevin Greene and Jerry Kramer
"And why do we fall, Bruce? So we can learn to pick ourselves up." Thomas Wayne
Canal Street Chronicles resident Steelers Fan
yea
but they both needed a change of scenery. That could be a huge deal for you guys, or it could be like the Bay trade…
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Aug 7, 2010 2:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Well, yeah, getting even one good prospect
for a middling impending FA (mutual option that he can decline) reliever in his late 30s who’d make Type A, but could accept arbitration, is already getting close to a heist
Needs moar dingerz.
Blake Smith
Anyone think he can sneak into the top 10 next year? Top 20 definitely, but he’s been better than expected this year.
Not a big fan of his
Old for his league and pretty ugly strikeout to walk rate
by SeanMillerSavior on Aug 6, 2010 9:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah
I’ve been trying to like him all year, but the strikeout rate is a big flag. Couple that with a guy who has to BABIP .381 to hit .288, and it’s reasonable to expect contact issues as he advances to higher levels. Not a bad walk rate…
by blackoutyears on Aug 8, 2010 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions
There are a handful of players (I might have even mentioned in a post here, I need to check) that are having breakout years in the Dodgers organization
And Blake is one of them.
Cavazos-Galvez, Mario Angelo Songco, Blake Smith, Matt Magill, Jerry Sands, Rubby De La Rosa I believe will all be in the top 20 next year no doubt.
"Stop exploding you cowards!!!"
my current top 11
at this moment in time (subject to change)
1. SP Chris Withrow
2. LF Jerry Sands
3. CF Travyon Robinson
4. SS Dee Gordon
5. RP Kenley Jansen
6. SP Rubby De La Rosa
7. SP Aaron Miller
8. SP Ethan Martin
9. SP Allen Webster
10.RF Jonathan Garcia
11.SP Matt Magill
It’s probably a middle of the pack system.
The top 9 has really good potential
and so does Magill. Dont know a lot about Garcia though
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Aug 7, 2010 2:47 AM EDT up reply actions
I love the Dodgers system
I’m just going to state that straight up. I suppose in terms of straight value, they are middle of the pack. But it’s just such a balanced system. Lots of different types of prospects—speedy, toolsy defenders, big bats, both RH and LH high ceiling pitchers.
Dee Gordon and Jerry Sands are personal favorites.
They’ve made some dumb moves lately though. Picking Zach Lee (assuming he doesn’t sign, which seems a fairly safe bet right now), selling low on Lambo and McDonald for an aging reliever when they were fringe contenders anyway… still, I like what they have in the bank.
They need a couple more big bats that could make it IMO
Russell, Sands, Robinson, Cavazos-Galvez all could make it, but that is our major bats, and Russell and even Galvez has some question marks(Ks and age respectively).
A couple more big bats would go a long way… well, actually, we had those in Santana, Bell and Lambo, but they are now gone…
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Aug 7, 2010 2:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Landing Gausman or Lee would be a huge boost to the draft class
But I doubt they can ink either.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
I still think Gausman could sign. I don’t know that Lee would even be worth the amount it would take to land him, although he would be a great get.
I'm sure that 3MM that got put towards Theriot/Lilly/Dotel/Podman would go pretty far
but then, a contending team 8 games back is worth the infusion of impending free agents.
Needs moar dingerz.
I hope we get one
Id bet on Gausman before Lee though
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Aug 7, 2010 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions
He's had a good summer
And is going to be demanding a lot of money. I’d bet on LSU at this point.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
he has had an inconsistent summer
I saw the breakdown a week or so ago, and he had a bad stretch followed by dominance. So basically, it was the same thing that should be expected… Inconsistency
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Aug 8, 2010 10:58 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I've only seen a couple of reports
But the main thing I got out of them was his stuff was back to where it was last summer when he was seen as a mid first round pick.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
Are you guys
talking about his spring/senior year performance? Has he been pitching somewhere this summer?
by blackoutyears on Aug 9, 2010 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions
It was a second hand report
at another SB Nation site in one of the comment sections,so I have no way of finding it, but it said he struggled mightily early on but had since done better. So the question is was it an adjustment period or is it his a lack of consistency of having his stuff all the time.
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Aug 10, 2010 2:18 AM EDT up reply actions
Right
but was the reference to his spring or is he pitching this summer? He did struggle this spring, and for most of the season, and while there were some reports that he had regained some velo and the shape on his curve by the tail end of the year, there were still some big questions. I’m assuming that your header shoudl have read inconsistent spring, not summer? One consistent report was that he’d spent a lot of time on basketball and wasn’t ready for the beginning of the baseball season, a la Taijuan Walker. He seems like a potential steal if the price is right and the Dodgers should sign him if at all possible. Gausman has the makings of an excellent college starter if he does end up at LSU.
by blackoutyears on Aug 11, 2010 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions
California Penal League
I have been looking for the homepage but can’t find it, but go this from truebluela.com, I asked the people who comment there
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Aug 12, 2010 11:55 PM EDT up reply actions
lol you really thought it was the California Penal league
that was a joke haha. . . He pitched in the California Collegiate League. . . here are his stats:
http://www.calsummerball.com/tv.htm#team.mlb
by SeanMillerSavior on Aug 13, 2010 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions
hahahaha
I was searching for literally 20 or 30 minutes for the site, but couldnt find anything. All I could find was articles saying that Bonds may end up in that league.
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Aug 13, 2010 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions
here someone linked this
story about his summer league performance
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Aug 12, 2010 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks for the link
That may be one of the most hyperbolic articles I’ve ever read (105 mph? Really?) but it did give a picture of his progress, which sounds a lot like his spring. He has a ton of projection left, but 105 mph? I do think he was one of the more underrated arms in this draft thanks to some poor performance at crucial times.
by blackoutyears on Aug 13, 2010 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions
the 105 is a joke
Its saying he has a huge arm and is only 175. The sky is the limit on his fastball, basically.
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Aug 13, 2010 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I guess
But the joking nature of the remark was poorly conveyed. ;-)
The kid has a good arm, no doubt, and scouts who favor projection love him. Lots of work to do though. I still favor the narrative where he goes to LSU and turns into a first round arm three years from now a la another lanky cold weather kid who was more projection than polish when drafted out of h.s.: Anthony Ranaudo. If the Dodgers are smart, that doesn’t happen.
by blackoutyears on Aug 14, 2010 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Re-read
the article, and there’s nothing indicating that the guy saying 105 thinks it’s a joke. It’s a really strange article…
by blackoutyears on Aug 14, 2010 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I mean does he go 105 (mph)?
To me, he is saying he could go as high as anyone velocity wise. Its like saying the skys the limit, I doubt he actually meant he thinks he’ll go to 105.
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Aug 14, 2010 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions
It's more the last part
“I can’t wait to see him next year with the development at LSU, how much better he got, and see if my words aren’t right, see if he doesn’t throw 105,” Thomas said. “I don’t think that’s too far off.”
The writer either needs to clarify that this is said tongue in cheek, or the guy is going to come off sounding unrealistic (to say the least). Nothing about this says the guy is joking. I think you’re trying too hard to defend the indefensible. I’m an ex-journalist and I’d have gotten a thrashing from my editor if I hadn’t clarified the tone of the comments. lol
by blackoutyears on Aug 15, 2010 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions
A bit late
But what about Brian Cavazos-Galvez’s season?
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