2010 Top 20 Kansas City Royals Prospects in Review
by John Sickels on Aug 4, 2010 8:00 PM EDT
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Here is a review of the 2010 Royals prospect list, originally published October 30, 2009. THIS IS A REVIEW OF THE OLD LIST AND PRE-SEASON GRADES. THIS IS NOT A NEW LIST. The 2011 list and new grades won't be ready until the season is over and I start writing the book.
1) Mike Montgomery, LHP, Grade B+: Brilliant early at High-A Wilmington, and continued to pitch well after promotion to the Texas League. Has just rejoined Northwest Arkansas after rehab from a sore elbow. 1.88 ERA with a 65/15 K/BB in 62 innings on the season. He's great if he can stay healthy.
2) Mike Moustakas, 3B, Grade B: .347/.413/.687 in Double-A, .269/.274/.484 in Triple-A. I predicated a Texas League breakthrough two years ago and it happened. Power has blossomed, but strike zone judgment and sharp platoon splits are still issues. Appears to be in better condition than last fall in the Arizona Fall League.
3) Aaron Crow, RHP, Grade B: 5.66 ERA, 90/59 K/BB in 119 innings in Double-A, 130 hits. Was just demoted to High-A and gave up 10 hits and eight runs in his first start. No way to spin this season as anything positive.
4) Tim Melville, RHP, Grade B: 5.54 ERA with 74/45 K/BB in 89 innings for Wilmington, 85 hits. Went on the DL in mid-July with pectoral tendinitis although he had been pitching better lately.
5) Danny Duffy, LHP, Grade B: Quit baseball this spring for personal reasons, then changed his mind. Has made eight starts at four levels since then, with a combined 3.25 ERA with a 34/9 K/BB in 28 innings, 24 hits. Just promoted to Double-A.
6) Wil Myers, C, Grade B: Hitting .311/.430/.497 between Low-A Burlington and Wilmington, with 10 homers, 67 walks, 70 strikeouts in 334 at-bats, 10 steals. I absolutely love the bat, but his defense needs a lot of work.
7) Eric Hosmer, 1B, Grade B-: The laser surgery worked: .351/.423/.577 between High-A and Double-A, with excellent strike zone judgment. He's even stolen 13 bases in 14 attempts. This is the player the Royals thought they were getting in the 2008 draft.
8) Carlos Rosa, RHP, Grade B-: Traded to Arizona. 3.38 ERA with 23/17 K/BB in 27 Triple-A innings, 6.75 ERA with 8/9 K/BB in 13 major league innings. Command is still the big problem here.
9) David Lough, OF, Grade B-: .256/.318/.420 with 11 homers, 10 steals for Triple-A Omaha. Still impresses with his tools/athleticism, but unrefined with the bat.
10) John Lamb, LHP, Grade B-: 1.65 ERA with 137/33 K/BB in 120 innings at three levels, 91 hits. Has emerged as one of the best southpaw prospects in the game.
11) Noel Arguelles, LHP, Grade C+: Cuban defector has missed entire year with shoulder problems.
12) Jordan Parraz, OF, Grade C+: .266/.352/.415 for Omaha. I expected better.
13) Jeff Bianchi, INF, Grade C+: Lost season to Tommy John surgery.
14) Chris Dwyer, LHP, Grade C+: Another breakout guy, 3.00 ERA with 113/43 K/BB in 102 innings between Wilmington and NW Arkansas, with 90 hits allowed.
15) Kila Ka'aihue, 1B, Grade C+: Tremendous season in Omaha, .319/.463/.598, 24 homers, 88 walks, just 69 strikeouts. I love the power/walks/low strikeouts profile. Will they let him play?
16) Johnny Giavotella, 2B, Grade C+: .301/.373/.413 with 13 steals for NW Arkansas. Skilled contact hitter, could sneak up on people next year.
17) Louis Coleman, RHP, Grade C+: Fine year in Double-A and Triple-A, 2.25 ERA, 79/18 K/BB in 72 innings, 47 hits allowed. Can help in pen next year.
18) Tyler Sample, RHP, Grade C+: 4.15 ERA, 93/69 K/BB in 102 innings for Burlington, 80 hits. K/IP and H/IP are pretty good, walk rate is too high.
19) Tim Smith, OF, Grade C+: .299/.376/.448 for NW Arkansas. Distance power is to the gaps, but he controls the zone well.
20) Cole White, RHP, Grade C+: Out all year.
21) Blake Wood, RHP, Grade C: 5.61 ERA with 14/15 K/BB in 34 innings in the majors. I know he throws hard, but without more strikeouts he is just not going to be a very good pitcher.
What a great year for this system, with breakouts from Hosmer, Moustakas, Lamb, Dwyer, and Myers. Count Montgomery too if his elbow is OK. And Kilamonster continues to batter minor league pitching, though at age 26 he doesn't have the long-term upside of the others.
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Unbelievable that before the season they only had 1 player above a B grade and Kila was #15.
Heck if guys like Crow and Melville can bounce back, they’ll be even scarier.
my quick take
Mike Moustakas, 3B, Grade B+:
Mike Montgomery, LHP, Grade B+:
Eric Hosmer, 1B, Grade B+:
Wil Myers, C, Grade B/B+
John Lamb, LHP, Grade B
Danny Duffy, LHP, Grade B-/B
Chris Dwyer LHP , Grade B-/B
Tim Melville RHP
9) David Lough, OF -SHOULD NOW BE 1B KILLA ? or 2B Giovatella ?
10) Aaron Crow RHP
Noell Arguelles could be big next year….
If Carlos Gomez could net J.J. Hardy then Wilson Ramos should have netted at Least Matt Capps...
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Aug 4, 2010 9:04 PM EDT reply actions
actually Moustakakas should be A- and possibly Monty too................
If Carlos Gomez could net J.J. Hardy then Wilson Ramos should have netted at Least Matt Capps...
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Aug 4, 2010 9:05 PM EDT up reply actions
i love monty
and if he wasnt injured most of the year awould def. agree with an A-…but have to agree with a B+ for now
Moustakas has a ton of question marks for an A-
I’d be much more comfortable with Montgomery there if he finishes out the year strong.
Myers
Myers to me is a straight B+ borderline A-. To have as many walks as strikeouts and still hit for power and average, at that age, with his athleticism? I don’t think there are many prospects his age with that kind of polish and approach
-1 and only member of the Nick Weglarz fan club!
agreed
there are not many situations where i don’t see him ranking as my #1 in this system, and maybe top 10 overall.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
Except for the situation in which Mike Moustakas hasn't been deleted from existence by the evil Reality Police
(all apologies to realitypolice)
I don’t think I can give him an A- unless we know he is going to stick at a premium position. Since that is extremely unlikely, I’d wait for a repeat performance before basically saying his bat is MVP caliber at the MLB level. A is about the best grade John has given out (has he ever given an A+?), I’m just not completely sold.
I’m OK with him being #1 if you want (I’d keep Montgomery there I think) but I don’t think I’d give any of these guys an A-.
I’d definitely have Lamb at a B+, and he might end the year as a fringe A- guy (if he isn’t one already…). Dwyer should probably be considered a high B, low B+ guy also. These two guys are very, very good.
http://mvn.com/mlb-tossingtherosin/
+1
www.pbfantasysports.com
^^ check it out
by Preston Barclay on Aug 4, 2010 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Add in Collins and Derrick Robinson
to top 10 list- Robinson had a breakout himself -may not sustain but he’s on the radar again
Christian Colon, Cheslor Cuthbert
Will Smith might be in the Top 20 next year.
Other who could break into 2011’s Top 20 – Elisaul Pimentel, Lucas May, Edgar Osuna, Michael Antonio, Manny Pina, Clint Robinson
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Antonio is showing nice power in Arizona
could be pretty interesting if he doesn’t out grow SS.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
and my sleeper is Buddy Baumann
loved him when we drafted him, loving him even more now. showing very good K numbers in the Carolina League as a starter. another LHP, i know.
i’d be stunned if he’s not at least in my personal top 20. Rany had him at #15, FWIW.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
Baumann
Yeah, what’s the story on him. Doesn’t look like the biggest guy in the world. What’s his stuff like, stix? The strikeouts have held up well as he’s been stretched out.
by blackoutyears on Aug 8, 2010 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions
baumann
i saw a report of him at 90-93 out of the pen earlier this season, but i haven’t had any confirmation of whether it’s carried over to the rotation. changeup is his go to strikeout pitch (and evidenced by his K rate vs RH batters), but also has a decent curve. AA is going to be the test for him, but so far indications are strong.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
How can the top 5 not be A prospects
Moustakas is basically the best power hitting prospect in the game. The comparable I’ve seen is Ryan Braun.
Myers is basically Joe Mauer as a hitter.. Who cares about defense.. If Mauer was a LF in the minors he still would have been a grade A prospect, and he’s still at catcher, and has a better chance of staying there given his height.
Hosmer’s minimum upside to me is Mike Sweeney’s prime with a little more speed.
Lamb and Monty are both in the discussion as top 5 pitching prospects in the game which also merits an A, especially since they are both southpaws.
Look out for Cheslor Cuthbert down at Idaho Falls.. He’s 17 and killing it.. Baseball America or one of the other Latin American heavy scouting sites will rate him as a B+/A- guy by next year
temper it down dood
i love the optimism, but you’re like off the charts. haha. you’re kinda setting yourself up for disappointment with that high of expectations for these guys.
it is good to bring up Cuthbert though, who Callis said might sneak into the back of the team’s top 10 list.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
you're being
too pessimistic, particularly on Mous. Kid’s a hitter.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Aug 5, 2010 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions
A prospects
These were their grades during the offseason, not their grades right now.
Make sure to read everything he writes :)
-1 and only member of the Nick Weglarz fan club!
Montero is still the best power hitting prospect in the game.
But you’re right, clearly every Royals prospect is a Hall of Famer.
by Kenneth Arthur on Aug 4, 2010 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions
+0.5
He is not only the best power hitting prospect, but also the best HITTING prospect. Montero is a beast.
by King Billy Royal on Aug 5, 2010 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Haha
Assist. Editor, Minor League Division, Bless You Boys
Daniel Fields is better than you.
by David Tokarz on Aug 5, 2010 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Finally some optimism for KC
No playoffs since 1985
6 above .500 teams since 1986
1 above .500 team in 17 years
12 top 10 picks since 1997
So the odds were eventually going to turn around. Maybe they start to see the results of their farm system stating mid to late 2011, give or take a couple more years for extra progression at the mlb level. AL Central Contenders by 2015 or so. Making it the 30th anniversary since their 1985 world series to finally break this streak
Lamb and Montgomery both push for the top pitcher in the system
Duffy and Dwyer are 3 and 4. Top 4 pitchers in the system are LHPs. Do you need RHP prospects to be successful or can you do it all with LHPs? Serious question….
Hosmer and Moustakas are different hitters but both very good.
Myers is a solid kid but still a little overrated if you take into account his below average defense. He’s going to have to move.
I love our prospects and think we’ll be a top 5 MILB team, but we still have some big holes.
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
Personally....
Give me two pitchers, one a LH and one a RH, and give them the same talent and production, and I pick the RHP over the LHP.
Throughout history, there are more RH hitters than LH hitters (although I think you can say there have been maybe a few better LH power hitters), and given natural generic L/R Splits (~10% in BA, and even more in OBP and SLG), the RHP is more likely to put up better numbers than the LHP going forward.
Or, that’s my theory.
…give them the same talent and production, and I pick the RHP over the LHP.
If they’re putting up the same production, then the LHP is already overcoming all the hurdles you describe in the second paragraph… Suggesting that, even by your own theory, those two guys can’t have the same “talent,” i.e., the LHP must be better than the RHP.
I thought of how I was being hypocritical there after I hit post....
I should have clarified that I meant in the minors if they are doing the same, going forward I expect the RHP to have a natural splits advantage, thus a slight statistical advantage. I don’t know if it’s true or not, just a theory I have. Feel free to shoot holes in it. I am here to learn, not to teach.
Teams don't typically like to be that strong either way. The idea, from what I've heard, is that it's better to have a rotation that mixes up lefties and righties.
Of course, there’s also some other team theories out there about what is good and bad for a baseball team that are completely wrong and unfounded. We all know Tony LaRussa has no problem batting a pitcher 8th. There’s no reason you can’t have a rotation with 4 lefties if they are all good. Some teams out there have a lineup that is super strong on the leftside. Does any team want to face a guy like Cliff Lee or CC Sabathia ever? Is it a bad thing if you had Lee and Sabathia and Kershaw in the same rotation?
by Kenneth Arthur on Aug 5, 2010 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions
That's kind of what I think
It’s not so much the LH vs. the RH. It’s the type of pitcher they are. Say you bring all four up a the same time and then you add Edgar Osuna who is more of a soft tosser and control guy. What do you make your rotation based on the type of pitcher?
Montgomery. Hard thrower. 91-95. Very good off speed. Considered the best of the group.
Lamb. Low 90s. Another guy wih an above average assortment of offspeed.
Duffy. 93-94. Hit 98 the other night. Very good curve and change combo.
Dwyer. Low 90s. Has gotten to 95. Excellent curve and average change.
Osuna. Lives on the location and offspeed aspect. Upper 80s to 91. Great change and average curve.
How do you line these guys up? I’m guessing you throw Osuna in the middle somewhere to break up the rhythm at either 2 or 5. That makes him usually the middle guy of a series.
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
Probably not an issue
The chances that all four of the lefties make it to the major league rotation and stick are fairly slim based on typical attrition, eh? Monty is already dealing with a tender elbow and Duffy, while back, did leave to “find himself”. That’s just a preview of what can, and likely will, go wrong.
by blackoutyears on Aug 8, 2010 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions
We have 5 borderline B+/A- prospsects
And its not like there is a sharp decline after that.
I could name a couple lesser systems that would love to have dwyer duffy kila(not much longer) colon and crow as there 1-5 prospects
Hosmer has not got close to the credit that i believe he deserves. The only thing that held him back earlier this year is the homerun hitters graveyard at wilmington. Since his promotion he has flashed some major power. Offensively i cant find anything bad to say about him.
Myers and Moustakas might be overrated a little bit but still very excited to see all these guys up in the near future.
Cant complain about the pitching but it would be nice to see some RHPs at the top.
We still have melville sample and crow so there is still hope for a RHP to emerge. But i really dont think it matters are best pitching prospects are lefty’s
Chris Dwyer...
is going to be a good one. I like him better than any of the other lefties in the system, and this is a strong system for left handed pitchers.
He’s probably got the best breaking ball with his curveball. He’s anywhere from 88-94, which isn’t bad in his first full pro season.
I haven't gotten to see Monty, Dwyer, or Lamb throw
But I did see Duffy and he knocked my socks off. Very impressive.
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
Great farm system.
So many good bats.
When Hosmer is ready, does KC install him at DH, trade Butler, or try a position change?
Nice problem to have in any case. Kila needs to get the hell out of there to an organization who actually needs his services though.
i think
they could get a VERY good middle infielder for Butler (Brett Lawrie once Fielder goes some place else).
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Aug 5, 2010 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Billy Butler for Brett Lawrie does not compute.
by Kenneth Arthur on Aug 5, 2010 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Agreed, especially when you consider that Lawrie's near-upside is similar to Butler now.
You guys win. You can keep your little marked-out piece of internet territory. Spend your days communicating via keyboard with people too ugly for the real world and too nerdy for anyone to care, anyway. Your piece of land is here. Do the rest of civilization a favor and stay within its limits. You bore me. Have fun with your nightly sobs and screams into your pillow over your inability to attract a good mate, Radiohead. ~The Hooligan
by Daniel Berlyn on Aug 5, 2010 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Are you saying that you would want MORE then Butler for Lawrie?
Do people realize that Butler is a fantastic hitter for his age? He hit .300 with 20 homers and 50 doubles as a 23 year old. Most guys that age can’t perform like that in AA.
by King Billy Royal on Aug 5, 2010 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Seriously
I assumed the first post was saying that Lawrie may not be enough to get Butler
If I was the Royals I would want a lot more then Lawrie for Butler.
by King Billy Royal on Aug 5, 2010 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I thought I was taking crazy pills
Totally agree, Butler’s a pretty valuable hitter. All he’s missing from his game is more power though. Do you think his swing will bring more power shortly? I noticed that his HR/FB% is pretty low this year (8.3%) but I don’t know how much of that is luck and how much is just not being aggressive or putting good loft on the ball
-1 and only member of the Nick Weglarz fan club!
Jumpy much?
Lawrie’s near upside is similar to the type of player Butler is now. I expect both to get better this point forward and I obviously wouldn’t trade Butler just for Lawrie.
You guys win. You can keep your little marked-out piece of internet territory. Spend your days communicating via keyboard with people too ugly for the real world and too nerdy for anyone to care, anyway. Your piece of land is here. Do the rest of civilization a favor and stay within its limits. You bore me. Have fun with your nightly sobs and screams into your pillow over your inability to attract a good mate, Radiohead. ~The Hooligan
by Daniel Berlyn on Aug 6, 2010 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions
The Royals are really building something here, and by trading away Podsednik and Ankiel it's like they might actually realize that bad vets aren't the way to go
So expect that 17 year extension for Kendall any day now.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 5, 2010 8:57 AM EDT reply actions
And releasing Jose Guillen today!>
Party in KC.
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
Hosmer
I think he’s at least a B+. I fell in love with him at the Futures Game. His approach was so advanced and he wasn’t trying to do anymore with the balls pitched to him than he could.
Mous will get all the HR love, but I see Hosmer with the higher avg/OB throughout their careers.
hmmm
still think Mous is an A-. He does have his K and OB issues, but they’ve gotten better. Montgomery is a borderline A-, but with his injury there’s reason to be hesitant. Lamb has had a very good couple of months and should only be a B+ (at most) right now. Hosmer, though, has shown that the lasik surgery has worked and his thumb injury was much worse than thought and has pummeled pitching this year. He has to be an A- in my eyes.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Aug 5, 2010 10:27 AM EDT reply actions
Guillen DFA'd
so Kila will be an everyday guy it looks like.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
Personally I think that Kila will be a mediocre hitter
He may hit 20-25 homers but I would be surprised if he hits .270.
by King Billy Royal on Aug 5, 2010 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions
But AVG isn't what matters MOST
I’ll take the homers and a .400 OBP if it truly does happen, and I’ll even take it with a .240 avg.
I really doubt that he gets enough walks to get a .400 OBP.
Pitchers won’t fear him nearly that much.
by King Billy Royal on Aug 6, 2010 2:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Does anyone still buy into that?
I thought we’d all accepted that it’s a bunch of crap and plate discipline is a repeatable skill.
Sure its a repeatable skill
That doesn’t mean BB rates from the PCL will carry over to the majors. He gets pitched around more in the PCL because the pitchers aren’t as good and he’s playing in a bunch of bandboxes. Put him in the majors and guys will attack him a heck of a lot more.
Guys will throw him more strikes
Not because they are pitching around him less, but because pitchers throw more strikes in the majors. Every player’s walk rate goes down in the transition to the majors. That doesn’t mean Kila is going to be subject to an unusual amount of reduction.
Somehow, Nick Johnson and Jason Giambi maintain an elite walk rate despite no longer being elite power threats. I wonder why that is?
The point I’m trying to make is that while his walk rate will go down, it’s not going to suddenly plummet to the point where he can’t maintain a high OBP.
They most certainly will pitch around him less
He’s an elite slugger in the PCL, while his power in the majors is only above average. Pitchers will challenge him more because they’re better and he’s not playing in a bunch of bandboxes.
No one said he would maintain a high OBP either. KBR just disagreed with him still being a .400 OBP hitter. MLEs agree with him on it, as Kila’s current MLE OBP is .378
MLE... ha.
And you didn’t answer my question. How do guys maintain such high on-base percentages when they no longer hit for plus power, if they ever did? It’s not just reputation either, because some guys who have never been big power threats still manage to consistently post very high walk rates.
It’s because plate discipline is a repeatable skill and it doesn’t have much to do with “pitching around a guy” (outside of actual IBBs) or protection in a lineup or whatever.
Kila isn’t going to maintain a 21% BB rate in the majors because nobody walks that much in the big leagues. But he’s still likely to be among the league leaders.
By the way...
…I’m not necessarily saying he’s going to post an OBP over .400. That’s a very extreme projection. But he has as good a chance as any prospect in the minors IMO.
You're arguing with a POV I don't even have
Of course plate discipline is a repeatable skill and of course Kila has it. That doesn’t change the fact that his current BB rate is a product of more than just MiLB pitchers having worse command than MLB pitchers. He also gets less strikes thrown to him because he’s got great power for the minors and he’s playing in a league that’s incredibly HR friendly.
Thank you
I am not saying he can’t get a lot of walks. However, he won’t be near a .400 OBP.
by King Billy Royal on Aug 6, 2010 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions
4 A- or better prospects and almost a 5th
I’ve seen most everyone on this list play/pitch either this year or last – short of what I’ve seen from the Braves organization in the same time period I’m not sure I’ve seen better talent. There are 4 A- better prospects – Moustakas, Montgomery, Hosmer, Lamb. Myers is a B+ regardless of where he plays – as far as a bat he’s ready for AA at 19. I’ve been watching him this past week just tear it up at BB&T Ballpark – granted he had his own cheering section, but he has put on a clinic again Winston’s above average (and mostly older, college) pitchers.
Melville (2 starts) and Crow (1 start) were just awful. Cow was hitting good numbers on the radar gun, but they were mashing his stuff – must not have much break to it. Melville just couldnt’ get out of the gate – he was getting shelled from the get-go. I’m not sure I’d put either of these 2 pitchers in my top 10.
You’ve still got Lough (B), and Kila (c+, but still mashes the ball), Duffy (B- and that’s only because he took a break) and Dwyer (B-).
I don’t think its a stretch to say 4 A- or better prospects and you could probably argue for 5. A lot of guys have just really blossomed this year and have jumped 2 grades.
Have you seen Lough?
Or Parraz (or Robinson over the last month)? DRob has scuffled statistically, I’m curious if there’s a change. Parraz has something like a .900 OPS since April, people are forgetting him a bit. Lough seems to tease with his talent, but has improved his discipline over the last month.
Saw Lough last year so I can’t speak for change. Just remember thinking – who is this kid, good hitter, runner, fielder – where’d he come from? Thought he was very promising. Never saw Parraz. I’ve seen all the guys who were with Wilmington this year or last and the very few who were with Burlington, NC at some point.
11-20 is really interesting to me.
We already know about the top 10 which is amazing but we are super deep as well.
Lets go with the top 10
1.Micheal Montgomery B+
2.Mike Moustakas B+
3.Eric Hosmer B+
4.John Lamb B+
5.Wil Myers B
6.Chris Dwyer B
7.Dan Duffy B
8.Christian Colon B
9.Aaron Crow(dont know what to think)B-/C+
10.Tim Melville
Kila is about to lose his prospect status.
Noel Arugulles has tons of hype and potential with him.
Brett Eibner second round pick, good power and defense.
AAA potential top 20 prospects
20 year old Tim Collins, great numbers good stuff just small guy
Louis Coleman looks to be a great bullpen guy and could contribute soon.
Blaine Hardy(23) and Edgar Osuna(22) are a couple guys who have put up good numbers and i think will contribute to the major league club next year.
We have 4 guys who could make up part of the KC pen for awhile.
AA
Paulo Orlando(RF)
Derrick Robinson(CF)
Johnny Giavotella(2B)
High A
Salvador Perez©
Buddy Baumen(SP)
Will Smith(SP)
Kevin Champman(RP)
Low A
Tyler Sample(SP) tons of potential
Elisaul Pimentel(RP) heards has nasty stuff
Kelvin Herra(SP) average year but worst one so far.
Cheslor Cuthbert is also getting big reviews as a 17 year old. WE have some lower level potential but its too early to tell.
Put those guys in order and that is an impressive 11-20, even top 25. Love the depth.
Wil Myers
Can someone explain why Mike Trout is considered a top 3 overall prospect, while Myers is only in the 20-30 range?
Myers has had a better offensive season considering he’s now playing in the pitcher friendly Carolina League while Trout is in Cal League. Myers plays a more difficult position, and although he may eventually get moved, definitely has the athleticism to give CF a shot. Finally, the tools and pedigree are comparable if not essentially equal.
Sure thing
Trout put up significantly better numbers while both were in MWL (Trout’s only played 20 games in the CAL). He’s also 8 months younger, a much better baserunner, and plays at least a plus CF defensively. Maybe Myers could handle CF defensively (I have my doubts), but he wouldn’t be nearly as good out there as Trout.
Myers has better overall stats
Is crushing the Carolina League and has similar athleticism to Trout (“at least a plus defender at CF” – at least?) where you can project plus OF defense.
I honestly believe the catcher-thing is an overhang for Myers as a prospect; if he were already in the OF and flashing great defense, he would be ranked higher.
But...
I don’t think you can give Myers the same credit for a “projected” defense in CF as Trout for already being there, as long as Trout is excelling.
Exactly. He is OK behind the plate due to good athleticism, that doesn’t automatically mean he will be a plus defender in the OF. I made that statement in a different thread and was told nobody is suggesting will automatically be a plus defender but that is how they are ranking him (as if he will be).
Myers has better overall stats?
Trout’s slash stats are better across the board. Myers also doesn’t have similar athleticism to Trout. Myers is considered a good athlete, while Trout is considered a truly elite one. Myers may project to play plus defense in a corner, but I have never seen anyone say they think he can play a great CF like you see scouts universally say about Trout. You also seem to have ignored the fact that Trout is also a better baaserunner and is younger. There are a lot of good arguments for ranking him ahead of Myers.
The only real argument for Myers at this point is his numbers are close, his tools are close, his age is close, and he’s doing better since both got promoted. If there current performances hold for the rest of the season, then you’ll have a pretty good argument for Myers being right there with Trout. Right now all you’re doing is basically ignoring what both guys did for the first 2-3 months of the season and how scouts see their tools in order to make your case for Myers over Trout. Most people aren’t ready to do just to focus on what they’ve done over the past month or so. That’s perfectly defensible.
Stats
Trout had the better slash line but had a BABIP 78 points higher in the same league. Myers’ underlying stats were better, higher IsoD and IsoP. I find Myers’ numbers to be more repeatable than Trout’s, so I wouldn’t give Trout an edge with the bat at all personally. Defensive value of course is in Trout’s favor and puts him ahead, but the margin isn’t too great IMO.
http://bullpenbanter.com
recent BA chat
Jeff (New Hampshire) : Is Wil Myers a top 5 talent in terms of pure hitters?
Ben Badler: Definitely. Frankly, he’s in the discussion for the top 5 among ALL prospects in the minors.
Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club
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