Strasburg
by soxaroundtheclock on Aug 29, 2010 9:16 AM EDT
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PrintHere's Lincoln Hamilton of Project Prospect on Stephen Strasburg on Oct. 13, 2009.
"As his hips and shoulders fully open, Strasburg's pitching arm goes through severe reverse forearm bounce (where the ball and the pitching elbow, basically go in opposite directions. In Strasburg's case the ball goes from towards third base to first and his elbow goes from towards first to third). Reverse forearm bounce is a major risk factor for elbow injuries including UCL tears which require Tommy John surgery to fix."
Very interesting. Here's a link if you want to check out the full article: Here is the full article
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Post #12342438209789
On Strasburg…
Why not include this in any of those threads? This is an article that basically copies exactly what two different reports that I read say about his delivery. Yet another article showed a perfect comp with Steve Carlton’s (I believe) arm motion and Stephen Strasburg’s, and Carlton had very little injury issue at all in a very long MLB career. Pitching is a maximum effort motion with the arm that can easily lead to issues. Predicting a pitcher to get injured is like predicting a pasture full of cows to contain manure.
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
Logical fallacy
“[Insert pitcher here] pitched that way and he didn’t get injured!” does not disprove the thesis that X mechanical issue increases the risk of injury.
How is that different from...
the corresponding logical fallacy: “pitcher X has Y motion and thus has a high risk of injury”?
Or for that matter, “Pitcher X has Y motion which caused Z injury?”
Those statements aren't saying they prove something
They’re setting forth a hypothesis, albeit one that’s tough to test without a huge amount of samples.
The logical fallacy is trying to disprove a theory about the probability of getting injured with one sample.
Both are flawed
…as hypothesis. You can disprove either with a number of examples. You teach a certain motion to lessen the damage on the arm, but the truth is that pitching is like banging your head against a wall. You may never get a concussion, but there’s a good probability that it will eventually happen.
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Aug 29, 2010 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I wonder if there's another thread that this would fit into.
Maybe even one pinned to the top or on the front page…
Nah
Strasburg deserves 1800 threads just based on his awesomeness. Can someone please start another one?
+1
I called on the exact pitch - Joe Mauer's first career Home-Run at Target Field !!!
Why Oh Why did the D'Backs select A.J. Pollock over Mike Trout?
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Aug 29, 2010 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Let's not.
A little peer pressure in these instances is the best way to keep a site in line, rather than waiting around for an “authority”. For instance, right here I’m going to tell you that you should butt out, and let these things work themselves out. Peer pressure.
by PissedMick on Aug 29, 2010 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
What great logic
Someone asks the posters to let the mod and the owner of the site police it but you would rather (1) tell him to shut up and (2) chastise the original author for posting a topic for discussion on a discussion board. Let’s essentially have a penis measuring contest to decide who is right. Is this a junior high football team or what?
I personally think the topic is valid. A lot of people on this site gave Foster, Lincoln and all of PP a bunch of shit for going out on a limb with their assessment of Strasburg. “How could you possibly rank anyone but Strasburg the #1 prospect in baseball?” Nearly every other publication was willing to just award Strasburg a spot in the HoF and they went against the grain…not just to go against the grain, but because they had true reservations that have been somewhat validated. I get it, correlation doesn’t necessarily mean causation but they are trying to expand the group knowledge by taking what others have done a step further. They read up on red flags for pitching mechanics, then deduced which red flags are more severe (in their opinion) and more likely to lead to injury. To take the approach that you can’t figure out which motions lead to a higher injury risk and all pitchers hold the same risk is really lazy.
Heck PP doesn't even have Hellickson in their top 100
They think his shoulder is going to pop off, we’ll see…
He's #77
Obviously doesn’t look good currently, but let’s see how his arm holds up.
Well...
Let’s see what happens when Hellickson starts getting stretched out for 175+ inning seasons. He’s five years removed from being drafted and still hasn’t topped 152.0 innings in a single regular season.
AdamWFoster on Twitter
Projectprospect.com Founder
by Adam Foster on Aug 30, 2010 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Oh I agree completely
Hellickson’s ranking doesn’t look good on the surface right now, but he also hasn’t done anything to allay the concern that led you guys to rank him where you did. Its definitely a ranking that will take years to evaluate.
laughable ranking here from PP
10 Fernando Martinez LF/RF Plus power/good contact skills may allow him to ascend to stardom some day
http://projectprospect.com/article/2010/02/23/2010-top-100-prospect-list
Why don’t you talk like this on their boards Braves? Should I go look for quotes about Sickels from their boards? :D
Keep hiding in the bushes.
by jfish26101 on Aug 29, 2010 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Still way to soon to judge - they may be right in the end.
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My apologies
I probably should have posted this in one of the Strasburg threads already up on the site, but those seemed to be fading, and I thought this was interesting enough to stand on its own. I realize there should have been a better title.
This is my first fanpost, so I guess this is my rookie hazing.
I just wanted to generate some discussion.
Thanks, guys.
by soxaroundtheclock on Aug 29, 2010 11:27 PM EDT reply actions
don't stress it
it’s an interesting discussion. welcome.
by BryceHarper on Aug 30, 2010 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions
If you throw 100 MPH, you're incredibly gifted and also at a much higher risk for getting injured.
It’s a good reason why Rob Dibble only lasted so long. Why Joel Zumaya’s career was over before it really got rolling.
Yes, there are iron men. Men you can cite for being hard throwers that stayed healthy, but few who have pitched as hard as 100 MPH on a consistent basis. And they are the exception, not the rule.
If you drive a street bike down a busy street road at 80 mph every single day, I can predict you will get in a horrific accident eventually because the color of the bike is blue. But it doesn’t make my prediction true. It just means I knew that you were at a higher risk and I picked a cause. That’s it.
How come Nolan Ryan lasted a while
He had great mechanics…
because he's a freak of nature...
As Humbled Fan says, they are exceptions, not the rule.
And Ryan doesn’t have an entirely clean bill of health. He had elbow surgery in 1975.
by Alex Eisenberg on Aug 31, 2010 1:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Nolan
Actually did have great mechanics, and he was one of the best conditioned athletes of all time…and he also might have been a freak of nature.
I think some of the problem might be that Strasburg wasn't all that highly touted until he got to SD State and they transformed him into what he was.
When you start intriguing people early in high school, perhaps they start teaching you the right things earlier on. And I say this knowing almost nothing of high school baseball, just a hypothesis.
by Kenneth Arthur on Aug 31, 2010 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions
as far as I'm aware
there has been absolutely no correlation between velocity and injuries
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