Jose Tabata Crystal Ball
by John Sickels on Aug 27, 2010 5:00 PM EDT
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The Crystal Ball is NOT a prediction or formal projection. It is meant to spark discussion about the player in question, in this case Jose Tabata of the Pittsburgh Pirates.
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Haha
I was wondering if we’d see some kind of stat line that said
2012, age 23
2013, age 27
by Flynn Blake on Aug 27, 2010 5:30 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Stolen base totals
Seem a little low. He’s close to forty on the year this year isn’t he? Hard to believe that he’ll only get half that many two more times in his career if he stays healthy.
This guy could be a monster if the power comes, in my opinion.
SB
The speed isn’t that great despite the steals and he doesn’t have the frame that will allow him to keep that speed(he will get bigger and then slower). I own him in a dynasty league so I’ve done plenty of research on him so I can trade him for max value
by mattp31 on Aug 27, 2010 5:57 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
He's as fast
as McCutchen. Their home to first times are pretty much identical. Yes, he’ll lose a few steps as he gets older, and his speed may decline a bit quicker than average because he is pretty thick, but he has as much raw speed as pretty much anybody in baseball.
Trevor Cahill
Would love to see one of these on Cahill…sometime.
Bryce Harper Crystal Ball will be the last thing i ever ask for
If you make it :D
…they should send down Huntington & Nutting, because they aren’t ready, either. - royshowell
by Marinerfanjake on Aug 28, 2010 2:30 AM EDT up reply actions
I think he will be in Pittsburgh longer than until 2014
Players who should be in the Hall of Fame: Pat TIllman, Dwight White, Donnie Shell, L.C. Greenwood, Ray Guy, Steve Tasker, Greg Llyod, Andy Russel, Cris Carter, Kevin Greene and Jerry Kramer
"Don't wory, I'm an untrained professional" WVPF
Canal Street Chronicles resident Steelers Fan
Eh.
We’ll probably have to choose between him and Cutch, in the same way that Tampa Bay is having to choose between Upton and Crawford, after a fashion.
Hopefully Starling Marte or someone else can fill the Desmond Jennings role.
Hey, an out is an out - unless you're Mario, in which case it's probably two outs. -UtesFan89
Hard work always beats talent if talent doesn't work hard.
we have 5 years of control left with Cutch
and Jose still have six so I think we can keep them around for longer than four years
Players who should be in the Hall of Fame: Pat TIllman, Dwight White, Donnie Shell, L.C. Greenwood, Ray Guy, Steve Tasker, Greg Llyod, Andy Russel, Cris Carter, Kevin Greene and Jerry Kramer
"Don't wory, I'm an untrained professional" WVPF
Canal Street Chronicles resident Steelers Fan
by WVPiratesfan on Aug 27, 2010 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Pessimistic?
He has a year where he hits .336 with 18 homers and a year where he hits .327 with 19 homers.
Unless you expect him to be 2009 Joe Mauer at the plate, I don’t see how this can be pessimistic.
Re:
I think it was maybe a little pessimistic from a power perspective. He does a pretty good job of making hard contact — so topping out at 21 might be a little low. For example, John has him hitting 3 in 123 games at his age 25 season. I’d be pretty shocked if that’s the case.
Of course, on the other hand, I think the other numbers are pretty optimistic so take that for what it’s worth.
I LOLed that you have him going to the Giants in 2014.
Would the Giants ever sign an aging, past his prime, gritty veteran?!
A's Fan in Sweden
I believe you mean 2024
…they should send down Huntington & Nutting, because they aren’t ready, either. - royshowell
by Marinerfanjake on Aug 27, 2010 9:46 PM EDT up reply actions
still, Tabata will be an aging vet by 2014, he'll be what, like 35 then?
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
Doubles
Everything looks reasonable to me except that the doubles totals strike me as low. With Tabata’s good-not-great power(potential, anyway) but very good hit tool, I would think of him as a guy who would consistently be hitting 35-50 doubles, if he’s doing anything well. Am I missing something?
I agree with this
…they should send down Huntington & Nutting, because they aren’t ready, either. - royshowell
by Marinerfanjake on Aug 28, 2010 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions
YES!
The Cubs will finally have a legit centerfielder for longer than 2 years! John you made my day.
This is a really cool idea
I would love to see one for Justin smoak, nick Franklin, Michael Pineda, and Dustin ackley
by jackyz on Aug 28, 2010 12:21 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
+1
Homerism rocks!
…they should send down Huntington & Nutting, because they aren’t ready, either. - royshowell
by Marinerfanjake on Aug 28, 2010 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions
I dig it....
Obviously not exact, but I have a similar outlook on Tabata. He should have himself a nice career, and hopefully find himself on some good teams.
As a Cubs fan...
I totally buy the Cubs overpaying him after a couple of good years in Texas. Seems to be a trend. Good call John.
Cub Fan - Bud Man
Very Cool
I agree with most of this. Very nice job.
by soxaroundtheclock on Aug 28, 2010 10:17 AM EDT reply actions
what's up
with 2013? He’s playing in 38 games.
John, are you projecting an injury? is it something you see/hear that scares you?
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Aug 28, 2010 11:52 AM EDT reply actions
just right
This looks like an extremely reasonable future for Tabata. As one poster already said, I could see 5 extra doubles per year. I’m also a bit skeptical that he’ll increase his walk rate so significantly late in his career. I know that’s typical as players age, but I don’t think Tabata is that type. He’s a good contact hitter and he doesn’t have enough power to make guys pitch around him, so I think he’s going to have to put the ball in play his whole career.
One major injury does seem kind of likely to me. He’s already struggled with hamstring issues, and for a guy who’s so big and whose game relies so much on speed, I would not be at all surprised if he misses significant time at some point.
Not gonna lie but if he get some more pop and touch more hitting ability
He’ll have a little Kirby Puckett in him.
if i had a little more velocity and a little more bite on my curve
i’d be pretty good too.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
Ironically, Tabata and Kirby were born in the same year, too.
Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor
Um...
You didn’t realize Tabata IS Kirby?! He went into recovery for his eye issues, got a double to play him for the time being, and he reappeared as a 19 y/o outfielder. Just wait until the reappearance of Robin Yount robs him of an MVP in 2020, just over 30 years from the first time it happened!
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Aug 29, 2010 3:56 AM EDT up reply actions
...to get out of alimony payments, no doubt.
Kidding. Always liked the guy, despite his personal failings.
Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor
if ifs and buts were candy and nuts
oh what a christmas we’d have
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Aug 29, 2010 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions
enough of the nonsense
I was saying he’s a good hitter and he’s short and stocky like Puckett was…
Terrible comp
That’s why the nonsense ensues. Tabata’s taller, leaner, stronger, and more athletic. Kirby wanted it more than any other baseball player I’ve ever watched in my lifetime. Tabata’s not in the same stratosphere in that regard.
Why would you comp a guy to a HOF’er anyway? That’s assuming big things right there. Nevermind that they’re poor comps in physical aspects and baseball skills.
Cue more nonsense!
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Aug 29, 2010 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions
puckett
seems like a reasonable comp to me. They’re both good contact hitters who don’t walk much, and they’re both thick guys with some speed. Tabata probably won’t match Puckett’s power and ultimately won’t be as good, but they’re similar types.
I'm not sure Tabata has half the talent Kirby did.
Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor
fair enough
But can’t you make a comp just based on the type of player rather than on their talent level?
I don't see it
Seeing a LOT of Puckett from his earliest days (I’ll admit that I’ve not seen any of his minor league video, so I couldn’t expound on what Kirby was like in the minors!), he and Tabata are not alike in skills. You do realize that Kirby was quite svelt when he first came in the league, right? He gained size after his first few years, but he was fairly thin when he first entered the league.
I know we’ve done a few age things on the site, and I realize I’m one of few here with anything higher than a 2 at the front of my age, but Kirby and Tabata are not good physical comps. As far as progression, Kirby went from A ball at 23 in 1983 to AAA/majors at 24 in 1984. There is very little progression to compare to, though it is pretty obvious that Tabata has a lot more conservative approach than Puckett ever had. Puckett struck out more and walked much less until late in his career than Tabata does now. In other words, skills-wise, it’s a poor comp as well.
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Aug 30, 2010 7:27 AM EDT up reply actions
while I'm not going to touch the Kirby comparison,
Jose has matured a ton since his time in the Yankee organization and he’s been as hard working as anyone in the Pirates org since the trade.
Really goes to show that some players really just need a change of scenery.
Absolutely
I have Tabata in a dynasty league, and I am very impressed by his change since the trade. My comment on Kirby’s desire as a player was nowhere near a knock on Tabata. Kirby really did everything wrong from a baseball perspective, yet he simply seemed to get better and better as he aged. He added weight, he rarely took pitches (though he seemed to be getting better at that later in his career), and he wasn’t much of a student of the game (not to Tony Gwynn standards, anyway). Yet he had one of his best seasons of his career his last year in the league. I used to love that on a grounder to 3b, he would leg it out like there was no tomorrow. Granted, he led the league in GIDP one season and was up there multiple seasons, but he hustled down the line. His little legs would be spinning like Fred Flinstone on every hit and every ball hit to him on defense.
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Aug 30, 2010 7:35 AM EDT up reply actions
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