Stephen Strasburg, Meet Tommy John
by John Sickels on Aug 27, 2010 12:15 PM EDT
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PrintI'm not sure what to say here, but as you've likely heard by now, Stephen Strasburg has blown his elbow ligament and will have to have Tommy John surgery. This is a blow not just to Strasburg and the Nationals franchise, but to baseball itself. Strasburg is special....it is unfortunate that we now have to add the caveat "when healthy" to that statement.
I know that some analysts had concerns about his mechanics, but arm injuries can happen to any pitcher. Tommy John surgery is at least easier (in many cases) to come back from than shoulder problems. There will now be recriminations that he was handled badly by the Nationals and should have been shut down earlier, but all it takes is one bad pitch.
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It's a shame but not a death sentence.
Keep your chin up Stephen.
by Kenneth Arthur on Aug 27, 2010 12:28 PM EDT reply actions
The un-natural motion of a 100 MPH pitch
Frankly, I was surprised that this was not in the minds of GM’s when they signed him. Any mishandling will be debated, but IMO, it was inevitable.
by team name deleted on Aug 27, 2010 12:31 PM EDT reply actions
+1
Not that there was any definitive proof, and it possibly could have just been our generally pessimistic nature, but inevitable is a good way of putting it.
Who loves orange soda?
by Kenan and Kel on Aug 27, 2010 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I called this.
It was obvious.
He’ll be back in 2012 a better pitcher for it…hopefully…by hopefully I mean probably.
Agreed
I think this is a blessing in disguise. Only time will tell.
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Blessing in disguise?
How could you possibly think that?
At best, he will be as productive as before while losing 1.5 years of development time.
This sucks, no other way to spin it.
development time?
i’d say he’s pretty much a finished product. and that finished product happens to be the best pitcher in baseball.
the surgery itself might be a “blessing” in the long-run, but the fact that he’s experienced these arm problems so quickly has to be a huge concern.
Maybe development time was the wrong choice of words
Is playing time, starts, or in-game experience better? The overriding point is that missing time is not better than playing.
It’s irrational to expect or even think he will comeback better than he was this year, and he most likely isn’t going to be able to alter his mechanics. I just don’t see how anyone could argue that this is a blessing in disguise.
The missed time
is to the detriment of the Nats to be sure, who are losing out on Strasburgian dominance for the next year. Here’s hoping his recovery dovetails with their ascent to contender. And I don’t care how good he is, he was still learning to pitch at the major league level.
Who knows how this will alter his mechanics? Liriano has finally regained some of his previous form, but he’s not the same pitcher he was before TJ. There are always adjustments to be made, here’s hoping for the better.
by blackoutyears on Aug 27, 2010 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Liriano is leading the league in FIP and is second in xFIP
He is already back to the pitcher he was before TJ surgery.
by King Billy Royal on Aug 27, 2010 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Many pitchers who've had TJ...
or any injury usually come back talking about how they understand their body much more than they did before.
From experience I tend to agree that you’re a little more aware of what’s moving and where.
And more to the point
Liriano had TJ at the end of 2006, and took until 2010 to get here. It’s promising that he’s made it, and that so many others have, but that timeline proposes at least two to two and half seasons of less than prime Strasburg. Maybe he’ll be better sooner, but who can know?
by blackoutyears on Aug 30, 2010 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Then what are you talking about?
If his results are back to being elite, what kind of form do you expect him to regain?
by King Billy Royal on Aug 30, 2010 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Billy
it’s a question of what changes in process/mechanics/approach were necessary to achieve results. What might Strasburg have to do differently following surgery re those areas is the question. Liriano has commented on the work it took to regain his feel for his pitches, changes in his mechanics, changes in pitch sequence and frequency each of his pitches is thrown, etc. Liriano will be the first to tell you that he’s a different pitcher than he was before TJ, similarity in results or no.
by blackoutyears on Sep 1, 2010 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I find any sort of I told you so
extremely distasteful in this.
Freude schöner Götterfunken, Tochter aus Elysium, Freude!
by t ball on Aug 27, 2010 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Ahh
that’s too bad
Who loves orange soda?
by Kenan and Kel on Aug 27, 2010 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Why?
It was really bound to happen IMO. There was just a whole bunch of signs pointing to it…If I was a smarter person I’d detail it, but instead I have to just say it was my “gut feel.”
Just that I've seen a lot of this kind of comment, here and elsewhere
and it turns me off. I’m not ranting or angry at your personally or anything. The risk for any pitcher is great.
Freude schöner Götterfunken, Tochter aus Elysium, Freude!
Strasburg was NOT mishandled
They seemed to have a pretty good plan in place on how to handle the kid. I really don’t think they are to blame here at all.
So if he misses all of 2011, does it push back his free agency?
by Kenneth Arthur on Aug 27, 2010 12:54 PM EDT reply actions
This
How does this affect his service time. Does it depend on if he’s put on the minor league or major league dl or am i making that up?
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on Aug 27, 2010 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Positive
Not saying it’s good he’s hurt but this may be a positive. People were worried after some a issues and his delivery, it’s not out of the way and won’t be a future worry about if it will be needed. Many pitchers, especially young ones bounce back better than ever due to the work they put in. I’m a fan of another NL East team, and I really want to see him bounce back as quickly as possible
by mattp31 on Aug 27, 2010 1:11 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
He'll be sucking up MLB service time, which is a big part of why this sucks
He’s still in line to hit free agency after 2015, as he’ll be placed on the MLB 60-day DL, so he’ll still be accumulating service time.
The Nats just lost a ton of value with this UCL tear.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Aug 27, 2010 1:22 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
The reality is
he may not be playing baseball in 2015
I’d say the bigger concern by far is the fact he’s injured, we can worry about service time 5 years from now
Who loves orange soda?
by Kenan and Kel on Aug 27, 2010 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions
it does seem to be bad timing as far as service time goes
but maybe by the time he’s healthy they have more talent to go beside him, its not like the nats were going to the playoffs with him next year.
"I have seen the future and his name is Matt Wieters." Keith Law
by Reddrummer9187 on Aug 27, 2010 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions
If I were the Nats I would hold off as long as possible on the 60 day DL
Burn an option if you have to since he has three left after this year. Unless they need the 40 spot I would wait just for this exact reason. Id rather burn an option year and gain a year of control
I am pretty sure you can't send a guy to the minors while he is on the DL
Can anyone confirm if this is correct?
by King Billy Royal on Aug 28, 2010 12:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes, and not even "on the DL"; any injury he suffered in the majors will do
Sending a player, who got injured in the majors, to the minors is an instant grievance. You will lose the hearing, because it’s forbidden under the CBA, and thus end up paying him a bunch of backpay anyway. You will also make your player hate you.
It’s one of the very dumbest things a team can do.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Agreed
It would also probably cause any other significant free agent to give your team the finger.
by King Billy Royal on Aug 28, 2010 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions
What about at the start of next season
Out of spring training? Keep him up the rest of this year but next spring option him to start the season
Its not gonna happen.
He would obviously still be dealing with the injury. They could never get away with this.
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You don't gain any control
Time on the DL counts as MLB service time.
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2016, not 2015.
His 2010 callup was WAY too late for him to accrue 6 years of FA time after the 2015 season.
Needs moar dingerz.
The thing I'm most worried about is how quickly he got injured
We’re talking about his first ever season pitching consistently on 5 days rest, and he didn’t even make it 5 months before going down with a major injury. Yeah, most pitchers come back from their first TJS just fine, but a second one is much tougher to recover from and that certainly looks like a possibility with Strasburg. I think the only hope for not having another one is if the shoulder inflammation caused a slight mechanical change that led to the tear, but I honestly think its his normal mechanics that caused it.
I also don’t really like the pitchers most people want to compare this too. Yeah, guys like Smoltz, Carpenter, Hudson, etc. have come back from TJS just as good as when they went down, but they went years without having the problem. The fact that this happened so quickly with Strasburg is what really worries me. Sure, he could end up like Josh Johnson and come back strong, but its not like Johnson is far removed from his injury. He could easily go down again in the next few years and see his career collapse. That’s the worry I have with Strasburg as well.
How long has he had this arm pain?
What worries me, and what I don’t think we’ve heard the full story on, is just how much pain he was used to pitching with. The first time he was DL’ed, he claimed that he couldn’t get loose, and it was the sort of arm pain he frequently experienced in college — remember, that was part of what Rob Dibble seized upon when he said Strasburg should just learn how to pitch through it, because he’d done it before in college.
Has he ALWAYS had arm pain?
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by alexwithclass on Aug 27, 2010 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions
He had his arm wrapped heavily in the dugout when I saw him pitch in May
I don’t see other pitchers do that…
if his arm was wrapped with ice packs after he pitched
then its actually pretty common, I’ve seen it on a number of pitchers.
AJ Burnett had TJ in 2003 and that was early in his career but he didn't seem to miss a step.
Liriano’s career was almost in the same spot when he went down in terms of his career. Seems okay now.
Josh Johnson is going to finish up his 2nd full season since TJ. That’s pretty good.
Ryan Dempster had TJ in 2003, hasn’t looked back.
It’s not a thing to be overlooked, but it’s not a huge leap to think that Strasburg can come back and be fine.
by Kenneth Arthur on Aug 27, 2010 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Those either aren't comparable or haven't turned out great yet
Burnett had thrown over 500 innings before he went down. He has come back well though. This is the closest good comparison I’ve seen.
Liriano hasn’t even thrown 400 innings since coming back. There’s no way of knowing if he’ll stay healthy for a significant period of time.
Josh Johnson has thrown less than 500 innings since coming back. Hopefully he’ll be a long term success story, but we just don’t know at this point.
Dempster had thrown over 1000 innings before he went down. Not really comparable at all.
Ugh
For all the talent the Nationals have assembled, it won’t matter because they’ll never be on the field at the same time. As soon as Zimmermann comes back, there goes Strasburg. When Harper comes up, lord knows what ligament Ryan Zimmerman is going to tear.
It's not like the Nationals have ever assembled this kind of talent before.
There are no curses. At some point this team will look pretty good.
by Kenneth Arthur on Aug 27, 2010 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Why do they say 'likely'?
If it’s torn, so he needs it no!? Just get on with it, get it scheduled, the sooner the better.
It's all Rigglemans fault
he is going to carry around Mishandling from cubs days and now Strasburg. I feel bad for the guy.
Big Bats, We Don't Need No Stinkin Big Bats!
He hasn't been mishandled.
The guy is a lean dude throwing 99-100 consistently while snapping off a low 80’s power breaking ball…plus he’s pretty elbow-y in his delivery (not really a bad thing per se)….
Now since I made this lean comment….a few years ago I read somewhere about pitchers body type, velocity, and injury…any ideas on how to conduct a study? Any ideas on what to expect?
I have no clue
but I really think it is a reality. If you are a frail guy and throw hard you’re arm can only take so much. In m case I didn’t have strong legs so my shoulder tore because it couldn’t take the brunt. I didn’t throw exceptionally hard, 85, but since my legs weren’t very strong it wore my shoulder out. Maybe he didn’t have strong legs, Idk. Call up sports science maybe they can do something, that’d be a cool idea.
Big Bats, We Don't Need No Stinkin Big Bats!
by angelskid2210 on Aug 27, 2010 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions
You can’t get lankier than Randy Johnson, and since he was fairly clean on the injury front for his career, it’s obviously not a 100% correlation.
I don't think
he was mishandled either. Of all the concerns I’ve heard regarding possible injury, the most compelling was the worry over the effects of his ridiculous velo jump. I doubt it’s unprecedented, but has anyone heard of another prospect adding 8-10 mph to their FB velocity in a year?
by blackoutyears on Aug 27, 2010 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Comparison to Chris Carpenter anyone?
Just throwing this out there, but Carpenter had his surgery and then came back to get a Cy.
On the other hand, Mike Hampton, Bill Pulsipher, and Joe Mays are names that went the other way after the procedure.
by team name deleted on Aug 27, 2010 2:11 PM EDT reply actions
Josh Johnson/Francisco Liriano
have also come back with great success.
Time will tell, unfortunately.
Yeah I have little doubt he'll still have awesome stuff when he comes back
The question is if/when he’ll go down again.
This whole situation reminds me of Liriano in 2006
What terrible luck.
But Carpenter went the equivalent of about 5 full seasons before breaking down
The fact that this is happening in year 1 is what’s really concerning.
Liriano is a MUCH better comparison here
Carp had shoulder surgery, which is quite frankly much less of a “sure thing” (not that TJ is, but the likelihood of coming back is much greater). Liriano, on the other hand, had TJ and took about a year and a half to come back to close to his former self.
This is disappointing for everyone...
What do you guys think? To much use in college?
I'm trying a blog. It's about the Royals of course but more of a mechanical analysis type thing about players I see. Try it and let me know what you think! Scouting the Royals
Nope.
Tony Gwynn seems to be one of the most responsible college coaches there was from what I remember hearing in terms of pitcher use. He certainly understands about the big leagues more than the CWS and doesn’t have his reputation hinging on wins and losses at college.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park. In Rizzo and Ramos we trust.
Tony Gywnn
knew he was something special and handled him so that he could have a successful MLB career. He had mechanical problems that many ignored and it came and bit him. I saw a bunch of people on this site think that the Nats shouldve changed his mechanics and they didnt. They played with fire and it bite them. It was just very quickly
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Aug 27, 2010 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions
You know...
since that first start, he didn’t have the super sharp curve… I wonder if he had been sore in the forearm/elbow and just tried to go through it?
I'm trying a blog. It's about the Royals of course but more of a mechanical analysis type thing about players I see. Try it and let me know what you think! Scouting the Royals
John
it may time for a Karl Spooner retrospective. Medicine has advanced so far since then. Here’s wishing stras a full and speedy recovery.
Strasburg's doing a presser at 4:00 today.
He certainly doesn’t have to do that given all he’s going through and that speaks to his professionalism and his maturity. Another reason why it’s going to be tough without him for the next year. You can’t but help rooting for the guy.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park. In Rizzo and Ramos we trust.
I feel like he sorta has to
because of his giant contract and hype. Many guys with big contracts make press conferences when they are injured…
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Aug 27, 2010 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions
He thinks bulking up in his legs is going to help him
Sorry but it won’t, Liriano did that and sucked balls until he lost all the muscle last offseason
Prediction on post injury scouting report:
Fastball – 92-95 consistently, can/will hit higher velocities. We’ll probably see more two seamers.
Change up – Improved or scrapped for a splitter…probably 84-88.
Breaking ball – Probably still more like a curveball…78-82.
My guess is that he has a bit more meat on him, that he irons out mechanically, and he still becomes an ace.
I don't think Id teach a kid coming off TJ a splitter.
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Yeah
maybe a cutter, thought there are risks there too. FB/curve/change seems safest.
by blackoutyears on Aug 30, 2010 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions
So Strasburg said that the same type of shoulder issue...
he faced before going on the DL the first time was similar to what he had in college? Well what do you know, that’s the exact type of issue (shoulder) that everyone concerned about mechanics saw coming. It wasn’t surprising his elbow went first, that curveball no doubt accelerating it, but Tommy John doesn’t give him a bionic rotator cuff. Right now it looks like even if he does come back healthy in 2012, we will probably just see him headed back to the DL for shoulder surgery.
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