2011 Dodger Prospects

I've been think a lot about dodger prospects lately - I haven't posted here in, well, maybe a couple years, but I just wanted to bounce my thoughts off of some other people.

First, my guess as to 2011 grades for the prospects:

B+

Kenley Jansen RP

B

Sands 1B/LF

Robinson OF

Gordon SS

B or B-

Withrow RHP

Zach Lee RHP

De La Rosa RHP

B- (pitchers)

Martin

Webster

Magill

Gould

Miller

B- (hitters) *note: I could see either of these guys as C+

Russell

DeJesus

C+ (hitters)

Smith

Garcia

Landry

Cavazos-Galvez

Akins

Lemmerman

C+ (pitchers) *note: I could see these guys as Cs

Elbert

Cash

Guerra?

Lindblom?

CONCLUSION: The first things that jumps out to me is that the Dodgers have a lot of right-handed power pitchers in the B/B- range and plenty of outfielders.  Little catching, corner infielders, or left-handers (who's the second best LH after Miller?)

Jansen: I know people rank some of the positions players ahead of Jansen.  My argument is ranking prospects is largely about balancing upside vs risk and Jansen has as high a ceiling as RP can have and he is already pitching in the majors.  He seems like a B+ guy to me, and I don't see any other prospects as a clear B+.

Lee: I know we're all excited that McCourt actually signed the guy, but $5M+ doesn't make him any better than your typical first round HS righty.  Martin had better velocity going into the draft, but was more raw.  Withrow had similar velocity and command.  Lee has a legit change-up - which is nice.  Sickles gave them both Bs going into their first seasons.  I think Lee is a B also.  If I were ranking him next to those two at the same age, I'd say he'd be slightly ahead of Withrow because of the change-up (otherwise they seem pretty similar).  Comparing Lee to Martin is choosing between projectable velocity and a change-up vs present velocity with less polish.  I'd take Martin because I'd rather have the upside, but it's pretty close. I think Lee is a 10-20 pick talent that got top-5 money.

De La Rosa:  On one hand he's got the velocity of Withrow or Martin, with better GB tendencies, and he's pitching well in AA while Withrow is struggling there and Martin is struggling in the Cal League.  On the other hand, his strike-out rate is unimpressive, he's only taken to starting recently, and he's still kind of a string-bean.  How many would take him ahead of Withrow, Martin or Lee?

Magill: His stats are better than Webster, but I've heard nothing about him. He's tall ... that's about it.  Does anyone have reliable info?

DeJesus: First off, he's missed all of last year with a broken leg and struggled in April/May, but has turned it on after June.  He still the guy we thought he was - good average, polished plate-discipline, no power, and a slick glove without top-tier athleticism.  He isn't walking as much in AAA, which shouldn't surprise because he has little power; I don't think he'll walk a ton in the majors.  Here's the thing: I don't think there is disagreement about what kind of player DeJesus will be - a good glove at 2B with 280/335/400 type lines.  To me that's a decent starting player, and that makes him a nice little prospect.  I don't have any problem with him starting at 2B next year. I think he should remain a B-.

Cavazos-Galvez: The good: low-strikeout rate, gap power and speed - consistent, hard contact and speed are the building blocks of a major league outfielder.  The bad: he's old, he never walks, his power is more about doubles than homeruns and he rarely plays CF - the recipe of a non-prospect.  Not sure how you balance these things - I guess we'll have to wait and see how he handles upper levels (seriously, he needs to be promoted more aggressively in 2011, he's hitting .390 with .655 SLG since July 1 - he's going to destroy the Cal League).  I know the negatives are terrible, but I just like guys that combine low-K's with a lot of XBH.

Akins: Here's what I know: it took him a while to get into pro-ball, so now he's kinda old.  Oh, and he has a career OPS over 1000.  What I don't know: everything else - does he have legit tools? can he run? does anyone have reliable info on this guy?

How do you see the outfields in Great Lakes and Inland Empire looking? My guess:

GL: Akins/Landry/Garcia

IE: Songco/Cavazos-Galvez/Smith

THANKS!