Minor League Baseball 8/24/2010
by casejud on Aug 24, 2010 3:20 PM EDT
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PrintI'm making an effort - it doesn't take but, 10-15 minutes to look through the starters for the day and write a little bit. Is 75 words really that much, especially when it is something you are actually interested in? Anywhoo, who cares? S'all good :) Here's some aspiring big-leaguers taking the hill today.
AAA - Zach McAllister takes on Andy Oliver in Mc's first game as an indian property, Brandon Beachy, Kyle Gibson, Blake Beavan. You ever like a player even though you know they probably aren't going to be great. That's how I feel about Blake Beavan. He isn't gonna make many top prospect lists but, he's tough, fearless, and I like the combo of never walking guys and keeping the ball in the yard - all of this at age 21 in AAA. I hope I didn't jinx him with the love .
AA Ball - Guerra vs Jenry Mejia, Tom Millone, Zach Stewart vs Dellin Betances in his AA debut, JC Ramirez, Wade Miley vs Chris Withrow, Simon Castro reminds me, physically, of Micheal Pineda.
A+, A, and Short season A - Tim Alderson (3-2, 8.42) I gotta be honest, I still root for the kid, Matt Moore stay tuned, he's been bucking FSL hitters down lately, Kyle Heckathorn, Ethan Martin, Trevor May, Robbie Erlin, Tyler Skaggs, Jake Odorizzi
Have fun posting everybody. Play nice now . . . or try, at least :-)
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Betances
Probably the most hyped start tonight. Goldstein tweeted to someone yesterday that his “gut call” is that Betances is a top 50 prospect and Piliere released a report last week comparing Betances to the Josh Beckett of old.
High praise indeed
I almost have to agree. There are plenty of reaons to doubt him – injuries – but, he’s a nice looking athlete and has been great. It’ll be especially telling how he handles AA. A lot of us we’ll be watching that one.
Rip Fredrick0220, cwhitman412, Mets2k9- mis you guys
I agree...
and actually posted as much in the game thread the last time he started.
If he keeps this up next year I think he puts himself in the discussion for best pitching prospect in the minors. Durability’s obviously a concern, so he’ll need a lot more distance from his most recent injury, but as far as stuff and pitchability goes there’s nothing not to like.
Beavan
He may never be exciting to watch, or put up Cy Young numbers, but he should have a long major league career. 1.4 bb/9 rate over 437.2 career innings is outstanding.
that
…and hitters can’t hit groundballs over the fence. The balls they get in the air off him at SafeCo will die in Frank Gutierrez’s and Ichiro Suzuki’s gloves.
by richieabernathy on Aug 24, 2010 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions
have you seen him pitch, by chance?
There are multiple reasons why he walks so few batters, and not all of them are good ones.
Most control pitchers give up hits.
If you don’t, you’re Cliff Lee or Roy Halladay.
by Fuckmikereilly on Aug 24, 2010 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions
okay
So what exactly are you trying to say about him?
Actually, what I meant was
He is what he is: a bottom of the rotation guy who gives up hits but has good control.
by Fuckmikereilly on Aug 24, 2010 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions
um
There is a middle ground between back of the rotation starters and the Cliff Lees and Roy Halladays of the world . . .
Apologies.
I didn’t mean offense by the statement. I just meant that most Mariners fans are aware that he’s been hittable, and it doesn’t mean he can’t be useful.
I’ve only seen him at Tacoma, where he seems overmatched at the moment (I wouldn’t have promoted him). From what I can tell, his fastball is too straight and he throws it too often for it’s velocity. From the sounds of it I like the secondaries a little bit more than you. But I should mention that I really am not a fan of him in general.
by Fuckmikereilly on Aug 24, 2010 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions
velocity?
How hard have you seen him throw? He topped out at 92 when I saw him.
Secondaries were all pretty average at best for me, but his change is very respectable if he keeps it down.
He was sitting at around 90
Which was disappointing, as I’d heard he was regaining some of the velocity he showed in high school. I like the change, but I think his slider is still raw. He keeps most of his pitches down generally though, which allows him to keep the ball on the ground. But he’s simply going to need to miss more bats to be successful, and I don’t know if that ever happens.
by Fuckmikereilly on Aug 24, 2010 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions
mmhmm
Sounds like what I saw, topped out at 92. His breaking balls aren’t very inspired, curveball is ahead of the slider at this point from what I can tell. The change is a solid pitch but isn’t really swing-and-miss.
I’m pretty sure he could miss more bats if he wanted to . . .just not sure what the consequences of that might be. I don’t think he’s necessarily destined to be an AAAA starter, but he’s not that far from that outcome right now.
Well if memory serves me correctly, isn't Beavan the one who was drafted with some devastating velocity...
and then the Rangers tuned him to down to gain more control? I think he has the power to throw mid-to-high 90s but at a cost. He’s young enough that he has time to be molded into a better pitcher (or worse pitcher) but at this point, I think he looks like he could be a back-end starter for a long while, especially in Seattle where Fister and Vargas have success.
by Kenneth Arthur on Aug 25, 2010 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Have you?
I haven’t but, I’ve been meaning too. i hope he gets a September callup. Its possible, I guess. What have you seen?
The reason I talk to myself is because I’m the only one whose answers I accept.
-George Carlin
yes, I have seen him pitch
Good command of a heavy fastball with average velocity. Secondaries are pretty eh. Throws way too many fastballs in pitcher’s counts, pitches backwards (secondaries to set up fastball). Does have decent pitchability and the poise is pretty good. The raw material for an okay (not great, maybe not even good, but like a No. 4 starter type) is there, but he would benefit from a reworking of his approach. I think he’d get killed in the majors right now, even in short stints.
If it sounds like I don’t like him, it’s not that. He clearly gets the point of throwing strikes and that can be half the battle sometimes. But it’s not hard to see him as a Chris Sampson redux statistically speaking.
I feel what ya sayin'
I have a feeling he was someone that I would like a lot less in person, as is often the case with minor leaguers coming up but, I saw an interview with him and I liked his no-nonsense moxie. That is kind of the opposite of some of things I heard about him when he was drafted.
Sampson huh? Hard to see how he compares except for throwing a lot of strikes and allowing a bunch of hits – wait, I guess I see EXACTLY what you are saying.
I live in Seattle, and I hate to be a downer for folks around here but, I really wish we would have got Jesus Montero but, I’ll get over it If Smaok turns out okay. He has been soo verry overated for so long around here but, he’s a good kid with some positives.
The reason I talk to myself is because I’m the only one whose answers I accept.
-George Carlin
right
I could see Beavan coming up and having some initial success, then struggling to stick. But he does seem like a good kid with solid poise. Maybe a reliever, but I was not impressed with his arm speed and I’m not sure how much if any of a bump in velocity he would see with a move.
Astros 2nd round pick Vincent Velasquez
Also pitching tonight. He has been pretty good for the most part so far, he supposedly needs quite a bit of time but I like what I’ve read on him. Excited to see how he does.
Who is a better prospect?
Jeurys Familia or Cody Scarpetta?
interesting
I think most would see it the other way
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Sure
I think Familia will eventually be moved to the pen. He’s got a good fastball, but not much else and poor mechanics in that he doesn’t repeat his delivery well. I see him more as a mop up reliever for his floor, but think he has a better overall chance to get to the majors in this role.
Scarpetta’s got a great arm; however, he’s also gone through arm injuries, which is a red flag moving forward for me. Similar to Joel Zumaya, he had restorative surgery for his hand (neurologically related). Just turned 22, he’s already 6’3 240lbs, so conditioning will also be a factor. Scarpetta’s has a good, not great fastball, and a wipe out curve plus his delivery is pretty clean and repeatable. His second half this year, shows he can learn and make adjustments. I think his ceiling is a #3 if all works out. He’s a big guy and conditioning is a factor. Primarily for his past health issues and aspects with conditioning, I think he’ll have more challenges getting to the majors. Still, I like his ceiling more than Familia if he puts it all together.
by BryceHarper on Aug 24, 2010 8:04 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Lots of good Names going today
I called on the exact pitch - Joe Mauer's first career Home-Run at Target Field !!!
Why Oh Why did the D'Backs select A.J. Pollock over Mike Trout?
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Aug 24, 2010 7:14 PM EDT reply actions
Andy Oliver
6.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 9 K
I’m a fan. His numbers are pulled down by how aggressive the Tigers have been with him, but he’s still struck out 100 in 111.2 innings this year across Double-A and Triple-A in his first full season, and his raw stuff is pretty good.
Vincent Velasquez
Meh start. 3.2 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
Nothing spectacular, but effective in preventing runs from scoring, I suppose? The one run came on a homer.
betances
80 pitch limit
4.2, 2 h, 2 r, 1 er, 2 bb, 8 k
2 errors on pick-offs.
fanned last 6 he faced.
solid
pretty impressive for his AA debut. I’m getting pretty excited about this guy.
by Arlo Brunsberg's Swing on Aug 24, 2010 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Upside...
is as high as any pitcher in the minors. As soon as (or if, for you pessimists) he gets appropriate distance away from his injuries I’ll consider him one of the 3-5 best pitching prospects alive.*
*I’m not a Yankees fan. Far from it.
Another bold comment:
if durability concerns weren’t an issue, I’m not sure I’d take Julio Teheran over Betances.
Obviously, durability concerns are an issue, so Teheran’s currently a far superior prospect by virtue of never having suffered an injury, but man…his return could not have gone better.
Anyone have an idea on how his secondary stuff looked?
Besides the injury concerns this was always the other main concern.
from Frankie Piliere's recent report
on the curveball: “Betances’ top secondary weapon, the curveball is an impressive one to say the least. And unlike many young arms with plus curveballs, he does not overuse it. He remains primarily a fastball pitcher. But when he did mix in the curveball on this particular night, it was extra sharp time after time. Thrown at 81-83 mph, the curveball showed very hard, late bite with tight 12-6 rotation…This will be yet another swing-and-miss offering for him at the big league level.”
on the change: “For a pitcher of Betances’ limited experience and power stuff to have anything resembling a decent changeup would be surprising. It turns out Betances has more than just a show changeup, and instead has a very usable 5 changeup on the 2-8 scouting scale. Given the good two-seam movement he has on his 82-85 mph change, there’s potential for it to grow into a plus pitch if he can refine his command.”
http://www.theyankeeu.com
Mejia
He still qualifies as a prospect right? I feel like I haven’t seen him on any of the top 50 / 100 lists that came out recently. I’d think if he finishes the season healthy and pitches well in AA he’d have to at least be top 50. Heck, I might could see him top 30…
lots of prospect lists
just go by the 50/130 IP/AB thresholds.
by auclairkeithbc on Aug 24, 2010 9:05 PM EDT up reply actions
but
he’s not really a top 50 prospect to me right now. he’d be in my top 100, but i think he’s stock has dropped.
by auclairkeithbc on Aug 24, 2010 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Really?
Why’s that? He showed good stuff in the majors and held his own as a 20 year old. Now he’s back in AA and starting and putting up a nice line as well. I realize that he had a minor injury and that lost some development time as a starter but neither of those things really scare me that much. He still has plenty of time to develop and has lots of things on his side (plus velocity, ARL, groundballs, and Ks to name a few). He’s top 50 for me (if you consider him a prospect) and I could probably be convinced to have him a little higher…
I wouldn't drop him
I’d keep him the same as last year and drop the Mets, if they can drop any lower.
"This has got to hurt"
by Da.aron on Aug 24, 2010 9:45 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
I think this is Carl Pavano's replacement for the 2011 season
I called on the exact pitch - Joe Mauer's first career Home-Run at Target Field !!!
Why Oh Why did the D'Backs select A.J. Pollock over Mike Trout?
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Aug 24, 2010 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions
RedSox first round pick Kolbrin Vitek promoted from Lowell to Greenville.
When life gives you questions, Google has answers.
Will Smith
8 IP, 1 H (single), 0 R, 12 K, 0 BB. Pretty good game.
Since being traded to the Royals, and put back in A+ ball where he belongs, he’s pitched 39.2 innings, with 37 K and 4 BB, and he has a roughly 2:1 GO:FO ratio (45:28). He has given up 4 HR though. He’s got a 2.95 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP. He’s was abused by the Angels this year, but thankfully he found his way to a much better place in KC (though he might have a hard to making it as a starter there).
ooops
45-28 isn’t really roughly 2:1. Still somewhat decent though.
by auclairkeithbc on Aug 24, 2010 9:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Rubby de la Rosa
6 IP 3 H 0 R 4 BB 6 K 7-3 GO:FO
85 pitches only 45 for strikes… ERA at AA now 0.71
pitched the 7th
7IP 4H 0R 0ER 4BB 6K 10GO – 3FO
gotta love this kid
by SeanMillerSavior on Aug 24, 2010 9:33 PM EDT up reply actions
still in for the 8th inning
gave up 2 hits then was taken out…
he has gone 7 innings in his last 5 AA starts… (only 6 total) and in those 35 innings hes given up 14 walks….. Not bad at all!!! his control is very good for a guy who has only pitched less then 70 innings coming into the year…
by matthewmafa on Aug 24, 2010 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions
imagine when he gets better control of his pitches....
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Aug 24, 2010 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Kyle Davies would be TOR if he had control of his pitches
you could say this about countless pitchers.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
Well I mean
his BB/9 in A ball before being promoted was 2.6…
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Aug 24, 2010 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions
true
but that was his lowest average, and his average on the season is still 3.2 BB/9
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Aug 24, 2010 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions
very true
it is an if, but I can dream, as he is just 21
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Aug 24, 2010 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions
And at 21 Davies had a 4.2 BB/9 in AAA
Here we are 5 years later and its not any better. Its just how pitchers are.
Im not disagreeing
all Im saying is he has improved his control yearly, and this season is a good 3.2 BB/9
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Aug 24, 2010 10:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Small sample sizes and the DSL is notorious for the walks
I wouldn’t put too much into him “improving” in the category. I don’t think he’s really all that much more likely to improve than any pitcher with control struggles at his age.
davies
i know you’re just using him as an example of pitchers who never learned control but, Rubby’s stuff is better than Davies’ and Davies never showed the kind of GB%’s that Rubby has been putting up.
plus
rubbys control is not even bad
he is at 3 BB per 9 in AA right now….
the only thing hes missing right now is K’s but with his stuff… that might come in time
by matthewmafa on Aug 24, 2010 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions
No he's walked 4.4 per 9 in AA
Neither the BB rate or the K rate is looking all that great right now.
in his last 35 innings.... besides his first start where he went 4 IP 5 BB
hes gone 35 inings and 14 BB… thats 3.5 BB per 9…
so his control is not a huge issue….
i dont get why your hating on this guy so much
by matthewmafa on Aug 24, 2010 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not hating on him at all
He’s struggled with his control though out his career. I don’t think he’s any more likely than most pitchers to develop control. That’s really all I’ve said.
hello
his BB rate was 2.6 per 9 in 59 innings in A ball this year….
followed up by 3.5 per 9 in his last 35 innings (5 starts) in AA
his control issues are blown out of proportion
by matthewmafa on Aug 24, 2010 11:31 PM EDT up reply actions
He was terrible prior to this year
And I don’t put too much stock in low A BB totals for a guy with a very good FB. I’m also not just going to throw out his worst start because it makes his numbers look better. Yeah, if he keeps the BBs down for the rest of the season, I’ll definitely start buying that he really does have control. We’re not there yet though.
He was terrible prior to this year
And I don’t put too much stock in low A BB totals for a guy with a very good FB.
Those two sentences contradict each other. So you won’t put stock in his low A numbers but will use his rookie ball numbers to back up your opinion?
Not in the least
I’m not going to give a guy a ton of credit for doing well against lesser competition. I’m definitely going to hold it against him if he struggles against lesser competition. How does that not make sense?
because you're not giving him any credit for progression
even though as an international FA signing, he started his professional career later than most latin prospects. He was extremely raw and pitchers with his velocity do take/need time to harness it. For the limited about of time he’s been pitching, he has progressed considerably. I’d like to give him credit for that. And even though his k/bb ratios are mediocre right now, he still has a 3.82 FIP in AA while jumping two levels midseason. I think there’s a lot to be excited about.
No I gave him credit, just not as much as you
Yeah, he’s looking better, but I want to see more before I completely believe in the control. He also racked up a lot of his good numbers as a reliever. Even in low A he was considerably worse as a SP. FIP of 3.91 as a starter at that level, and I’m guessing his AA FIP will probably be between that and 4 after his 4 walk game tonight. That’s not bad at all, but its also not something I’d be getting really excited about. He’s still most likely a reliever. Clearly this is going nowhere though, so I’m just going to walk away.
He also racked up a lot of his good numbers as a reliever.
He was a piggybacker. The dodger’s do this to limit the innings on young arms. they did this last year with Martin and Eovaldi. Even though rubby came in relief, he was consistently throwin 3-4 innings per appearance. So does it matter if you start the game going 3-4 innings or come in the game throwing 3-4 innings? Once they built his arm strength up from the beginning of the year, he’s been consistently going 6,7,8 innings per start.
http://firstinning.com/players/Rubby-De%20La%20Rosa-a/?s_y=2010&s_t=Great%20Lakes%20Loons&s_ll=A
He only threw 3 innings per as a reliever
He threw over 5 as a starter. He was significantly worse as a starter. I’m not just going to write that off until I have more data.
sweet sample size...
was he really terrible prior to this year???
he pitched 16 innings last year….. sweet sample size…
prior to that year he pitched 47 innings and was great… so yah terrible prior to this year huh???
and since you discount low a walk totals…. you are basing that he has horrible control on 39 innings of AA ball?
by matthewmafa on Aug 24, 2010 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, he was really terrible prior to this year
He had a career walk rate of 5.9 in in 70 innings coming into this year.
And I discount low BB totals by a guy with a good fastball in low A. I don’t ignore bad BB totals anywhere, especially in a foreign rookie league.
How so?
Struggling against bad competition is never a good sign. Overpowering lesser competition isn’t that impressive. Heck, he wasn’t even that great as a starter in low A. A 6.9 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9, which is certainly good, but nowhere close to the 8.4 and 1.9 he was putting up out of the pen.
You discount walks in a better league
But in a worse league you take more stock in them?
Wtf?
"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"
How does this not make sense?
If his walks had been low in the DSL I wouldn’t have given him a lot of credit for them either, because he’s dominating lesser competition. If he struggles against that lesser competition its a big red flag though. And maybe it came out wrong, but I’m not saying I don’t pay attention to the lower BB rate in low A, I just discount it because of his past history and the fact it jumped right back up after his promotion. If he keeps the BB down the rest of the way this year, I’ll believe that the control is no longer a worry. If he stays in the 4s with his BB/9, I’ll think it bears watching.
Seriously?
Davies had filthy stuff when he was coming up. There’s a reason he struck out 10.9 per 9 between high A and AA as a 20 year old.
davies
i don’t understand projecting Davies’ stagnation on De La Rosa.
Rubby does 3 things extremely well and I believe can serve as a solid foundation for major league success:
1. He limits homeruns
2. He has strong groundball %s
3. He has a plus plus fastball in velocity and movement.
He is also succeeding in AA; while making one of the hardest jumps in the minors going from Low A to AA.
I'm not projecting Davies' stagnation onto him
I’m not even the one who brought him up in the first place. He was just an example someone mentioned for how stalled development of control can hold a pitcher back..
Honestly, I like what de la Rosa brings to the table, but I’m not about to get real excited over him yet. I don’t call what he’s doing succeeding at AA necessarily, as the peripherals aren’t anything special. And I don’t think I buy the plus plus FB velocity and movement either. Guys with a plus plus fastball strike out way more than 1 guy an inning in low A.
its not plus plus
just plus… velocity and gb tendencies..
by matthewmafa on Aug 24, 2010 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions
That'd I'd definitely buy that
I’m not trying to make it out like I hate the guy or anything. At the very least he looks like a good bullpen arm as long as the control doesn’t completely fall apart as he moves up.
from BA
And I don’t think I buy the plus plus FB velocity and movement either.
he was voted as having the best FB in the midwest league this year and reports of his velocity staying late in games at 96 are out there. That combined with his gb%s, gives good evidence on velocity and movement of the fb. The reason his K rates are not extreme is because his breaking pitch is lacking right now. He’s obviously not a finished product but like i said before, the foundation is there.
I doubt anyone in the MWL to has a plus plus FB
And at lower levels, good velocity will lead to a lot of ground balls on its own. I’m sure his fastball is good. I don’t think you understand how good a plus plus fastball is.
I have a lot of respect for you as a poster
but it seems like you are trying to find reasons to hate on De La Rosa. Good velocity is what is leading to a lot of GBs in the lower minors? Maybe. But since when is AA the lower minors? And a 61% GB percentage is very good for a raw 21 year old…
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Aug 25, 2010 2:21 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm not hating on him, just trying to temper expectations
Yeah, good velocity will get you grounders in lower levels. Sure, he’ll still have GB tendencies as he moves up, but they’ll continue to go down.
His GB% in AA
is 61%, before his last start when he had 10 GB and 3 FO… Not sure what else he needs to prove. He jumped from A ball to AA and he still has a GB% over 60%!
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Aug 26, 2010 2:34 AM EDT up reply actions
He throws 100 MPH when starting
and his fastball has been described as having a bowling ball effect, as it is difficult to square up
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Aug 25, 2010 2:17 AM EDT up reply actions
de la rosa doesnt have the secondaries he had...
and who cares.. what does davies have anything to do with davies
by matthewmafa on Aug 24, 2010 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Secondaries are kind of a prerequisite to start though
I wasn’t the on who brought up Davies either. Some one else did in reference to a pitcher with very good stuff that just never learned to control it.
“Dejon Watson said he has a great changeup and curve”
This is a comment from a TBLA thread where I asked who was the best arm in the Dodger system.
According to this comment, he DOES have secondary stuff, and a great fastball…
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Aug 25, 2010 2:25 AM EDT up reply actions
If he has a 100 MPH FB and a great change and curve
He should be leading the minors in strikeouts. That would probably be the best pitching prospect in the minors. Hell, if he had a 100 MPH FB with average secondaries, that would still probably make him #1.
Rubby
Just love this guys ceiling/floor combo, IMO he is the LAD top pitching prospect and possibly ahead of Gordon/Sands by the end of the year if he keeps this up. There is no reason not to expect him to keep improving with further experience/instruction. With a good showing in winter ball and spring, could be a dark-horse for the rotation next year—maybe. They need SP’ers and he looks like the best internal option…
i thought i was
the conductor of the Rubby train? :-p
Anyways, as for next year. I hope the Dodgers don’t rush him to LA. He still needs to refine his breaking pitch and the nuances of pitching. Obviously, if he takes off in AA next year with an explosion in k rate and lowering the walks, i would think about bringing him up to LA midseason. But right now that shouldn’t even be in the conversation.
Here
This is more of what a plus-plus fastball is/ looks like . . . and an excue to bring up Kenley Jansen :)
Any chance this kid could start? I admit to not understanding these things sometimes but, he’s big, and strong, has the dominating heater, developing breaking pitches, and lots to learn I admit.
Never seen Rubby but, Kenley has a better fastball.
The reason I talk to myself is because I’m the only one whose answers I accept.
-George Carlin
It'd be tough to turn Kenley into a SP
It just seems like it would take too much time to stretch him out to throwing that many innings when he can be a dominating reliever right now.
Couple things
Here is a quote from Keith Law’s blog in ST 09.
The best stuff of the day belonged to Rubby de la Rosa of the Dodgers, who turned 20 earlier this month and has yet to pitch in a pro game in the United States. De la Rosa sat at 91-95 mph with a solid changeup from 84-86 that he turns over hard. His breaking ball was a slow curve in the mid-70s, although the harder he threw it the sharper the break became. He clearly has the arm speed to throw a good breaking ball and the laxity in his wrist to throw a curve, so it might just be a matter of development with better coaches as he moves up.
It is old, so it is safe to assume the pitches are at least the same.
On LaDodgertalk
They list him with a great fastball and plus changeup, and a curve that needs some work.
I am trying to find the link that said he was hitting 100MPH as a starter, and I will post it when i find it.
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Aug 26, 2010 2:54 AM EDT up reply actions
I see solid change and developing curve
There is nothing there that makes me believe they’re great pitches currently. They seem to have potential, but they’re not there. If they were, he’d be striking out way more guys than he is.
Here it is
While Kenley Jansen got all the major league buzz with his promotion to the majors, the minor league buzz was about 21 year old flame thrower Rubby De La Rosa getting promoted from the Loons to replace Jansen on the AA Chattanooga Lookout roster. Rubby had only started five games for the Loons so it was quite surprising that he got the call. I asked Hugh Bernreuter if Rubby had been doing more then throwing fastballs by the kids in the MWL;
He certainly hasn’t been the best pitcher on the Loons. The whole pitching staff has been incredible. I was surprised they didn’t take Josh Wall (really throwing well, plus older), Steve Smith (older and throwing well) or Luis Vasquez (also throwing well and older).
Buddy has one thing, however, the others don’t … a 100 mph fastball. The rest of the pitches are still a work in progress, but when you can start with a 100 fastball, the others sort of follow.
The Dodgers aren’t shy about moving the 100-mph arms up. Will we seeKenley Jansen pitching for the Dodgers soon? It wouldn’t surprise me.
This move also reinforces the notion that the Dodgers do not view Inland Empire and Great Lakes as different levels. The Loons have had four players promoted this season, three to AA.
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Aug 26, 2010 2:58 AM EDT up reply actions
So a random columnist says he throws 100?
And the same guy says Kenley Jansen, who generally sits around 93 or 94, is a 100 MPH arm. Yeah, I think that pretty much says it all.
He's hit high 90s regularly since he's made the MLB
No one said Jansen throws 100 on every fastball.
You’re just trying to argue.
"If we hit that bull's eye, the rest of the dominoes will fall like a house of cards. Checkmate"
His average FB has been 93.4
There have been 6 games where he didn’t break 95 MPH. He’s maxed out over 97 MPH in 2 games. He’s never got to 99 MPH. He does not actually hit high 90s regularly. I’m not just trying to argue, I’m pointing out the truth. Based on what Bernreuter said about Jansen, its safe to assume he might touch 98 once in awhile.
Nice to see him closing strong
He could potentially post a batting average over .250 by the end of the year, which would be a gross misrepresentation of how bad his year has really been. I hope he keeps it up though, I think he is still the SS of the future, for now.
Villar is the better prospect at this point
As reflected by him being the one who got promoted to A+ after the trade, despite being the same age and having a similar amount of experience.
by OremLK on Aug 24, 2010 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I’m not sure Mier is the SS of the future, but I think he’s a much better bet to be a solid regular than Villar.
by auclairkeithbc on Aug 24, 2010 11:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Why so?
I assume you are referring to Villar’s strikeout rate?
I tend to think that’s a somewhat overrated issue, personally. Villar actually has better defensive tools than Mier and a better chance to be an above average defensive shortstop. Plus he will provide value on the basepaths.
that is nuts
i saw that as well. how is this happening? why do people like him?
by auclairkeithbc on Aug 25, 2010 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions
honestly
what is his upside? .240 average/.300 obp, 2-3 HR?
by auclairkeithbc on Aug 25, 2010 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions
don't get me wrong...
i think he is a high end C prospect, possibly even a low end C+ prospect. that is better than where he ranked preseason, although he hasn’t really done much to improve his stock.
by auclairkeithbc on Aug 25, 2010 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Upside
He won’t have HR power, but he could be a 40+ SB guy in the majors with plenty of doubles and triples. He has premium defensive tools—great range, a plus arm, soft hands. His strikeout rate is concerning, but remember that he’s only 19 years old facing pitchers a lot older than he is.
His speed means he will likely be a high BABIP hitter.
I think his upside is “Michael Bourn as a switch-hitting shortstop”, with the key difference being that shortstop is a more valuable position than center field. I don’t think .700 OPS with 40 SB and +5-10 run defense is an unreasonable best case scenario.
yeah
i’m not really seeing this.
i’d probably take both 1st rounders over him, and by quite a good margin. others too.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
yeah easily
plus JD Martinez, Ariel Ovando, Jay Austin, Tanner Bushue, as the obvious ones.
For me, Jiovanni Mier and Dallas Keuchel are also clearly ahead, plus probably Kvasnicka, Wates and maybe Velazquez from this year’s draft.
by auclairkeithbc on Aug 25, 2010 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions
He's not my no. 2 prospect
I would take J.D. Martinez, Jay Austin, Mike Foltynewicz, Delino DeShields, and Ariel Ovando over him. But not by a wide margin. I see them all as being pretty interchangeable in the 2-7 spots, and I think they are all top 200 prospects. I can see the argument for Villar on a tools basis, though.
Well...
That would mean you think Villar is a B- player. That to me is way too aggressive. Like I said, I’d think he’s a C/C+ guy. Definitely way outside the top 200.
by auclairkeithbc on Aug 25, 2010 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm more aggressive than that
I think he’s B- but close to grade B. His defense and speed make him a very safe bet to see the majors in some capacity. If he can figure out his contact issues (a very big “if”, I know) he could be special. Think Elvis Andrus.
what has he done this year
to improve his stock so much? he’s been pretty bad. his ARL is probably sort of ok, but he doesn’t seem like a very good prospect to me. top 20 astros? yeah, probably. but that isn’t saying too much.
by auclairkeithbc on Aug 25, 2010 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Maintained his OPS in full season ball
There’s a huge difference in difficulty between DSL/GCL and the pitcher-friendly single A Sally league.
He performed well enough to make it to A+ as a 19 year old, which makes him one of the youngest players in the league.
maybe
Callis had a typo and meant to say he was the number 20 Astros prospect. That is about right to me honestly…at least a lot closer. He might be a little bit better than Jon Gaston and Jose Altuve, and some of the decent relievers in the Astros system, but that still doesn’t get him too close to being a top 10 prospect.
by auclairkeithbc on Aug 25, 2010 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't see why you're so low on him
He’s not that different from Jay Austin, who you seem high on, and he plays a more valuable position.
Really?
Austin has shown some power this year, hitting more HRs away from Lancaster than at home. Austin has a pretty decent K rate where Villar’s is horrid, and even though he doesn’t walk a ton, he seems to be better than Villar in that category. Plus Austin isn’t being graded purely on performance, like Villar is. Villar was a C prospect before the year, and hasn’t done much to show he’s significantly better now. And even though Austin is looking far superior, and was projected to be far superior, he is still only a B- at best, and that is with a little wishful thinking. Even Villar’s mom shouldn’t have him anywhere above an average C+ guy, which is still too high for my tastes.
by auclairkeithbc on Aug 25, 2010 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Power?
Austin has 9 HRs in 484ABs while playing his home games at Lancaster. He has an ISO of .152.
Villar’s defensive tools are highly praised and he has quite a bit of speed. He’s not an elite prospect, but I definitely consider him at least a B- prospect. That could go higher if I read some good reports on his offensive ceiling.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
Yeah... its great he's hit more HRs away from home
He still hasn’t hit many HRs at all and everywhere away from home in that league is good to hit in.
Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor
well
i’m not saying he is the next babe ruth. but he has shown more power than jonathan villar. villar has shown nothing at all.
by auclairkeithbc on Aug 25, 2010 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Since joining the Astros
He has 2HRs in 84 ABs and a .179 ISO. Obviously the sample is much smaller than Austin’s, but you seem to be exceedingly down on him.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
but why just use those numbers?
makes no sense. there is a bigger sample to work with.
by auclairkeithbc on Aug 25, 2010 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions
All right, let's look at their career numbers
Jay Austin career ISO: .109
Jonathan Villar career ISO: .92
Austin is better but not by a wide margin. In any case, power is not really either of their games. Villar might hit 5 HR, Austin might hit 10. Big deal. Villar is a little less of an offensive talent, but he has a lot more defensive value, since he plays shortstop.
In any case, I don’t know why everyone has to go to such damn extremes. They aren’t just grade C prospects any more than they are elite top 50 guys. They are what they are, young, raw toolsy guys with high ceilings. Good prospects, but not great ones.
it is pretty extreme
to call Villar a B-/B guy. I’m sorry. That is extreme to me. And calling him the #2 prospect in the Astros system (which I know you don’t think is true), is also very extreme.
by auclairkeithbc on Aug 26, 2010 9:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Because Austin has spent all season in a hitter's paradise
Villar has been in Lakewood for the majority of it.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
What you don't seem to understand
Is that this is not just Villar’s first full season, it’s his first season anywhere higher than the Gulf Coast League. Beyond that, he was signed on a smallish international free agent deal, so he wasn’t a well-known prospect prior to this year. So of course he would have been a grade C, you can’t really go higher than that for most DSL/GCL prospects, because they need to prove themselves at higher levels.
That’s what Villar did. He moved to a tough pitcher’s league in full season ball and proved himself. Maintaining his performance and advancing to A+ boosts his prospect stock significantly.
yeah
if he put up impressive numbers, i’d agree with you. he probably had a decent ARL like i said, but that isn’t enough to really put him on the level of a several 1st round prospects (and Ovando who was paid like one).
by auclairkeithbc on Aug 25, 2010 8:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I dont think Villar is all that good.
I just think Mier is pretty damn bad.
Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor
that is fine
I really wasn’t making an argument that mier or austin were great. maybe they are C/C+ guys like Villar. Either way, Villar isn’t the 2nd best Astros prospect.
by auclairkeithbc on Aug 25, 2010 11:13 PM EDT up reply actions
i'd have folty 4th
DDJ and JD are clearly #2 and #3 for me. But Folty is good as well. Either way, Villar is not in the ballpark. There are at LEAST 200 prospects separating them.
by auclairkeithbc on Aug 25, 2010 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions
For what it's worth
My fellow editors over at The Crawfish Boxes seem to agree with you more than than they do me and Jim Callis. We currently have him as the tenth best prospect in the system and a solid C+ leaning toward B-.
I could see 10th
I’d put him lower, but I could see him there. I’m not sure the Astros have 10 B- guys, but that is sort of a different point that I don’t really want to debate. Maybe I’m just a little stricter with B- guys generally.
by auclairkeithbc on Aug 26, 2010 9:37 AM EDT up reply actions
also
Lancaster stats translated to Lexington, actually get worse. So what he’s doing in Lancaster would be worse (theoretically) in Lexington. Compare his stats to Jiovanni Mier’s and in pretty much every category (except BABIP despite Mier’s advantage in LD%), Mier is roughly tied with or better than Villar.
So the horribly dissappointing season of Mier, a recent 1st round draft pick that made most top 100 lists, and was B prospect according to John, is a little better than the breakout season of a relative unknown that John gave a C to before the season. Hmmm.
by auclairkeithbc on Aug 26, 2010 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Well
That was OremLK’s argument. I actually agree with you. He was a C prospect according to John pre-season as a known quality. And he hasn’t broken out this year. So he is still a C. I can understand an aggressive ranking of a C+ as well though. B- is a lot for a guy like that.
by auclairkeithbc on Aug 26, 2010 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions
The tools allow me to give him a B-
Every report has raved about his defense. That + speed + some ability to hit with a chance to be better makes him a pretty good prospect.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
Ok
I guess we’ll see. If he is a B- guy based on tools, then this season was a big disappointment, bigger than Mier’s disappointing season.
by auclairkeithbc on Aug 26, 2010 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions
somone has a no no going
Odorizzi 7 IP 8 K’s team has 1 E
till you jinxed it
lol
"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."
by fourfingerwoo on Aug 24, 2010 10:00 PM EDT up reply actions
8 IP, 0 H, 10 K, 1 BB
This kid doesn’t get nearly the attention he deserves.
I’ve never seen him pitch but from the scouting reports he seems similar to Clay Buchholz. Super athletic, solid delivery, several offerings. That may be premature and overstated, there aren’t a ton of pitchers that have Clay’s stuff, but I love this kid.
Wow Dodgers fans are touchy...this is 1 of your 14 posts on the site and you came to say this?
When did I say de la Rosa was a failure?
If you really want to get into it, Teheran is looking significantly better in AA and has a much stronger track record.
its a sarcastic comment!
lol…
you know… to show that anything that is not 10 K 0 BB 0 Runs sucks
Dude its was a completely irrelevant post by a guy who almost never posts here
He took the time to post that because he thought it had some sort of a point.
Like I said, I never said Rubby sucked or he was a failure. I don’t even think I said his start was bad. I tried having a rational discussion about his control after he walked 4 in 6 innings. I don’t know why that seems unreasonable to some Dodgers’ fans.
I doubt he skipped over the Rubby comments to get to Teheran
Based on his comments, he seems mostly to be interested in Dodgers prospects. He’s never even mentioned Teheran in a post before. Excuse me if I assume he didn’t come to this thread looking for Teheran’s line in order to make a sarcastic remark that had nothing to do with our discussion on Rubby.
You said he had 14 comments
Which is a pretty small sample size to make any claims about what he does or doesn’t like. That in 14 comments he never mentioned Teheran is not significant. I think you’re getting a bit defensive here
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Aug 25, 2010 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions
The 4500+ comments at True Blue LA
does seem to show the guy is a Dodgers fan. I’m not sure that nixa37 is 100% right about the intent of the comment, but I absolutely think it’s possible.
http://bullpenbanter.com
You really think...
A random Dodgers fan came to this thread to check out how Teheran did and make a sarcastic comment about him being a failure? That makes more sense than him being a Dodgers fan, seeing me “putting down” Rubby, and making a sarcastic comment about Teheran in response? Really?
I don’t really care, I just think it was a dumb attempt to “get back at me.”
FYI
Withrow isnt starting, it was Rubby De La Rosa. His line has already been posted in the comments.
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Aug 24, 2010 10:14 PM EDT reply actions
Smoak +
. . . with a three-run bomb in the first off of Reno’s Matt Torra
Yonder Alonso went 2-4 with a Triple
Josh Reddick went 5-5 with his 14th Homer. Never gets mentioned anymore. Thats what a crappy year in AAA will do for you but, he still plays a nice CF – has pop – and is hitting really, really well since July 1st.
The reason I talk to myself is because I’m the only one whose answers I accept.
-George Carlin
trayvon robinson
2/3 2 BB
OBP over .410 in his first year of AA at age 22 with a 865 OPS as a CF…
wheres the lovve for this man???
I like him
and I agree that he gets little or no attention around here but, 22 at AA isn’t particularily impressive. I like him though – he has a well rounded game and could be the Dodgers lead-off man sooner than later. I have no idea why most talk about Dee Gordon more than him.
The reason I talk to myself is because I’m the only one whose answers I accept.
-George Carlin
Couple things
regarding Dee and Robinson, I think.
Dee is the son of a big league player and is more of a leadoff hitter. Robinson is more of a 2 or 3 hitter because he has power..
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Aug 24, 2010 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Didn't you get the memo?
If you can’t be projected to have 30+ HR power you suck as a prospect.
Personally, I agree – Robinson is a fringe top 50 guy right now. He could easily slide into the starting CF role in LA sometime in 2011, with Kemp moving over to LF. I love the combo of high OBP, speed and good up the middle D. These guys always profile well in the bigs.
Kemp... LF...?
What a waste if you think he should do that
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Aug 26, 2010 2:40 AM EDT up reply actions
Is it a waste to play a below average defensive CF in a corner to make room for a good defensive CF...?
Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor
Can you really say that 130 games makes him below average
after having him be one of the better defense CFs in the game.
And is it even known if Robinson is a better defensive CF?
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Aug 26, 2010 3:35 AM EDT up reply actions
He's played 419 games in CF
According to DRS, he’s been worth -6 runs in that span. UZR says -19.7. TotalZone says -17.3. So I would suggest that we have enough data to think he is below average out there.
I'll give some love...
I’m a pretty big fan. Swings and misses a bit too much to be an elite prospect, but he’s a poor man’s Desmond Jennings. I absolutely see him as a future big leaguer.
yup
strikeouts are holding him back from being an elite definte top 50 prospect
Tom Milone(11-5 .293ERA) 6.1IP,4H,3ER,1BB,7SO tonight.
The most underrated prospect out there.
Be real with yourself.
I'm sure you mean 2.93
…they should send down Huntington & Nutting, because they aren’t ready, either. - royshowell
by Marinerfanjake on Aug 24, 2010 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Not MiLB, but
Ryan Howard is 0 for 7 tonight with 5 K’s…absolutely horrible.
Apparently not
And now Howard got ejected and Oswalt is in LF!?!?!?!
Ji-Man Choi
With his first bomb in HIgh-A. Still not where they plan on putting him though 3B? 1B? C(i sure hope he can stick there)?
Hitting the Ji-Spot
ohhhhhhhhhhhhh yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!!!!!!!!!!
by BryceHarper on Aug 25, 2010 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'm not sure why he's playing so much 1B
He supposedly has excellent catch and throw skills. He definitely intrigues me.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
Does he?
I haven’t heard much from anyone with a huge amount of credibility, but based on nothing but vague impressions from something I may have read but can’t point to I thought he was thought of as a guy who’ll inevitably have to move…
I'm not sure if BA has written anything on him recently
I found this from when he was signed:
Engle called Choi “a skilled receiver with a solid arm. He has a power bat and was considered the best lefthanded bat in Korean high school play this year.”
I was referencing this Goldstein blurb from a couple Monday’s ago:
The Mariners are one of the busiest teams when it comes to scouting in Asia; one of their biggest investments is Choi, a 19-year-old Korean who signed for just under $500,000. A left-handed hitter with a highly advanced approach and gap power with a projection for more down the road, Choi is batting an even .400/.484/.562 in 31 games while also showcasing impressive catch-and-throw skills.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
Nats
Danny Espinosa, SS: 1-3, 2R, 2BB, K, throwing error (2nd at Syracuse)
Wilson Ramos, C: 1-4, R, K, 2 stolen bases against, 1 caught stealing
Chris Marrero, 1B: 2-3, R, 2RBI, HR, BB
Michael Burgess, RF: 1-3, RBI, BB, K
Derek Norris, DH: 1-4, RBI, 2B, 2K
Tom Milone’s up earlier in the thread…
Tom Milone, LSP: (W, 11-5) 6.1IP, 4H, 3ER, BB, 7K, HR, 2 WP
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park. In Rizzo and Ramos we trust.
Oops!
Sorry about putting this in the wrong thread!
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park. In Rizzo and Ramos we trust.
Actually the right thread.
Need. More. Sleep.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park. In Rizzo and Ramos we trust.
Hank Conger
3 for 5, raising his August batting average to .366 and season average to .292. I think it would only make sense for him to get a September callup, as Mathis’s bat isn’t going to be missed.
Jason Knapp
Is going again today as well. So far, he’s looked good coming off his injury with 25 K and 6 BB in 16.2 IP. He’s got a 1.08 ERA (2.16 RA), and a 0.66 WHIP. Hopefully he does well tonight.
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