2010 Top 20 Oakland Athletics Pre-Season Prospects in Review
by John Sickels on Aug 21, 2010 11:00 AM EDT
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2010 Oakland Athletics
Here is a review of the 2010 Athletics prospect list, originally published December 28, 2009. THIS IS A REVIEW OF THE OLD LIST AND PRE-SEASON GRADES. THIS IS NOT A NEW LIST. The 2011 list and new grades won't be ready until the season is over and I start writing the book.
1) Chris Carter, 1B-OF, Grade A-: .261/.366/.526 with 28 homers, 69 walks, 130 strikeouts in 441 at-bats for Triple-A Sacramento, 0-for-19 with nine Ks in the majors so far. The power is obvious but the strikeouts are quite high. I still think that he has better pure hitting skills than the numbers indicate, but we'll see.
2) Michael Taylor, OF, Grade B+: .262/.337/.380 for Sacramento. Power vanished; other components didn't change much. Not sure what the problem is.
3) Grant Green, SS, Grade B+: .319/.363/.508, 15 homers for High-A Stockton, 34/107 BB/K in 480 at-bats. He's having a good year with the bat, although plate discipline isn't great. Glovework not good statistically, high error rate with mediocre range.
4) Grant Desme, OF, Grade B: Quit baseball to join a Roman Catholic monastery.
5) Adrian Cardenas, 2B, Grade B-: .345/.436/.469 in 51 games for Double-A Midland, then .247/.298/.307 in 41 games for Sacramento. Makes contact, not showing much pop this year.0
6) Jemile Weeks, 2B, Grade B-: .293/.373/.423 with 14 steals in 62 games between Midland and rookie ball hip injury rehab. Good contact hitting with speed, lack of physical durability looks like a problem.
7) Tyson Ross, RHP, Grade B-: 5.49 ERA with 32/20 K/BB in 39 innings for Oakland, 39 hits. 3.55 ERA with 30/13 K/BB in 25 innings for Sacramento. On the DL with elbow problems right now. Strong ground ball tendencies, but his command wasn't sharp in major league action.
8) Max Stassi, C, Grade B-: .238/.314/.404 for Low-A Kane County, 13 homers, 37 walks, 126 strikeouts in 366 at-bats. Has thrown out 33% of runners. Passed ball and error rates are high. Potential is here but needs refinement on both offense and defense.
9) Josh Donaldson, C, Grade B-: .234/.331/.472 with 18 homers for Sacramento, 39% of runners caught, PB and Error rates are decent. 4-for-26 (.154) in the majors. He's shown good power and decent walk rate this year, so I still think he's interesting despite low batting average.
10) Sean Doolittle, OF-1B, Grade B-: Out all year with knee injury.
11) Henry Rodriguez, RHP, Grade B-: 1.69 ERA with 31/9 K/BB in 21 innings for Sacramento, 3.52 ERA with 16/8 K/BB in 15 innings in the majors. Stuff is there, just needs to throw strikes and stay healthy.
12) Corey Brown, OF, Grade C+: 80 games, .337/.429/.537 with 10 homers, 17 steals for Midland, but .156/.207/.275 in 34 games for Sacramento. Triple-A pitching exposed his weaknesses of approach, but with his tools more chances will come.
13) Fautino De Los Santos, RHP, Grade C+: 2.30 ERA, 22/3 K/BB in 16 innings for Stockton, 5.68 ERA with 39/10 K/BB in 25 innings for Midland, 23 hits. Midland ERA is deceptive; he's looked very good more often than not in the Texas League. Relief option for next year.
14) Michael Ynoa, RHP, Grade C+: Tommy John.
15) Arnold Leon, RHP, Grade C+: Tommy John.
16) Pedro Figueroa, LHP, Grade C+: 5.30 ERA, 57/29 K/BB in 71 innings for Midland, 84 hits. Injured.
17) Ben Hornbeck, LHP, Grade C+: awful at Midland, 5.87 ERA with 26/19 K/BB, 43 hits in 38 innings. Sent back to Stockton, 4.69 ERA with 108/38 K/BB in 88 innings, 109 hits. 1.78 GO/AO overall, with a 134/57 K/BB in 127 innings but 152 hits. Not sure what to make of him at this stage.
18) Sam Demel, RHP, Grade C+: 1.26 ERA with 28/9 K/BB in 27 innings for Sacramento. 4.61 ERA with 23/5 K/BB in 27 innings, 32 hits in the majors, traded to Arizona. Going to be a very nice bullpen arm.
19) Anthony Capra, LHP, Grade C+ 4.31 ERA with 105/74 K/BB in 111 innings, 103 hits for Midland. Command problems the big issue here, walk rate is just too high.
20) Connor Hoehn, RHP, Grade C+: 3.19 ERA with 94/34 K/BB in 79 innings for Low-A Kane County, 58 hits. Love the K/IP and H/IP. Needs to sharpen control for higher levels.
21) Justin Marks, LHP, Grade C+: 4.91 ERA with 129/48 K/BB in 125 innings between Kane County and Stockton, 124 hits. The ERA is deceptive; his K/BB and K/IP marks are strong. Sleeper for next year.
22) Mickey Storey, RHP, Grade C+: 5.54 ERA with 14/5 K/BB in 13 innings for Sacramento, 3.32 ERA with 58/18 K/BB in 65 innings for Midland. Not a bad year.
Injuries and a spiritual commitment took a toll here, but some guys have just been disappointing and having hard transitions to higher levels. I still believe in Chris Carter, who has shown the ability to adapt and make changes before. Rodriguez, De Los Santos, and Storey could all provide some bullpen help next year, and Hoehn isn't far behind them.
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taylor
General observation and my sample size was small, but when I saw Taylor, I thought he looked really tight at the plate. Maybe next year will bring better things.
For an entire season though?
It’s shocking how he has completely fallen off the map. You’d think it’d have to be (a) some injury that hasn’t been diagnosed or (b) personal life. Otherwise how does a talent like him struggle the entire season?
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Taylor is diabetic and I just have a hunch
that there’s some connection between that and his drop in power. Only a guess, though.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
With the history of our medical staff,
an undiagnosed injury wouldn’t shock me.
Keep in mind, of course, that "the best defense of Derek Jeter's life" ranks somewhere in between "the best fiscal responsibility of Mike Tyson's life" and "the best not-getting-assassinated-ness of James Garfield's life." -FJM
He also had a diagnosed injury that could've made him bad for a while.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 22, 2010 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions
I have a hunch its his crappy swing.
He has never had a swing that generates much backspin or loft… everyone just assumed he would hit for a high AVG with his LD swing an enough power b/c he’s a big dude.
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I can't speak for anyone else, but
I assumed he would hit for a high average with enough power because he has repeatedly in the past hit for a high average with enough power.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Well, there's that, too... sure.
I’m still assuming he will hit for AVG again. Don’t question that at all. I was responding to the assertion his diabetes has to do with his drop in power this year. Kind of a bizarre thing to claim with no evidence when there have always been concerns about the guy’s ability to hit for power.
As for the general crappiness of his season… seems like a cold start that got in his head and now he’s messed himself all up trying to adjust.
Bullpen Banter
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twitter: @alskor
Someone who saw him in person earlier in the season
said it looked like he had lost weight. Something’s not right.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
Well, I just can't argue with secondhand anecdotal evidence like that.
Bullpen Banter
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twitter: @alskor
Why so hostile?
I said it was a hunch, not that there was evidence to support it. No reason to be dismissive or sarcastic.
I like Cindi. A. She never pretends to know more than she does. B. She has unbridled enthusiasm for her "Hotties," and isn't afraid to show it. -IM4Oakgal
You're reading hostility into it where none (or very little) was intended.
I was using humor to make a point.
Bullpen Banter
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twitter: @alskor
Corey Brown
I’d love to hear some discussion about Corey Brown. His AA OBP (429) and SLG (537) are individually about the same as his AAA OPS (482).
It’s hard to imagine a great disparity between AA and AAA lines. Any thoughts on his future? Reasons Oak didn’t give him another shot at AAA? etc
he's not bad
I think he doesn’t get too much talk because he technically is repeating the level, but he only made it through about half a season in Midland last year before injury. I think that’s partly why Oakland sent him back down.
I don't really get the love affair some have with Carter
He’s got big holes in his swing, he’s striking out way too much against AAA pitchers, and MLB pitchers are just going to eat him alive.
I don't really get the anti-Carter argument either though...
Nobody at any point has expected Carter to become the next Albert Pujols or Frank Thomas yet every year people bash him for his high K rate and holes in his swing like he’s failing as as prospect. It’s been known for awhile that he is what he is. A hitter with great power and a good eye that is gonna strike out his fair share. He’s not gonna be, nor has he ever projected to be a .300 hitter however he’s a better pure hitter then people give him credit for. He started out slowly at AAA this year but really turned it on in the last couple months. It always takes him time to adjust to a new level, hence the slow start at AAA and the troubles in a VERY SSS in the bigs. He has hit the f*** out of the ball at every level, especially after some adjustment time. It may take him a couple years to reach this level, but I think he could easily become a .265/.370/.530 hitter at the big league level. He hits the ball hard to all fields and i’ve seen him plenty to know that he has a pretty good approach at the plate despite the high K rate.
This arguement has been hashed out a lot on this site. I sort of remember some people thinking Carter could be a .275-.280 hitter with 70-80 power on the 20-80 scale. No that isn’t Pujols or Thomas but that is an amazing bat. Throw in the questions about his defense and I don’t see why he is a top 10-20 guy like others were arguing earlier in the year.
I'm not bashing him in anyway
I just thought John’s A- was a terribly optimistic grade and I think the people who seem to rank him in the top 50 are getting ahead of themselves. I’m not saying he’s a bad player or that he won’t make it in the bigs, but strikeouts are always going to be a huge issue for him. He has holes in his swing. If AAA pitchers are doing a good job exploiting him, MLB pitchers are going to eat him up.
I’m sorry, but there is almost no chance he turns into a .265 hitter. He just strikes out way too much to expect that. I’ve had this argument before and I don’t feel like going through the whole thing again, but his K rates are terrible. He’s much worse than Adam Dunn was at this point in the minors. Honestly, I see him as a .235/.340/.460 type hitter in the bigs. He’ll certainly have some value, but as a below average defensive 1B or corner OF, its nothing special either.
carter
Well i’ve seen a lot of carter the last few years. He has it in him to be a more complete hitter, I THINK. I don’t know if he’ll actually do that, but he’s made adjustments before, and sometimes guys like this can surprise you. I’m not saying he’s a .333 hitter, but I think there is more in there than just a low-batting-average slugger. We will see.
by John Sickels on Aug 21, 2010 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm sure you've seen him more than me
And the A- didn’t look nearly as bad before the season as it does now, but I always thought he was a B+. I just can’t see myself going higher for a guy with absolutely no defensive value and a huge contact problem.
Will he play in the Oakland OF?
Don’t they have a lot of OFs fighting for playing time?
by King Billy Royal on Aug 21, 2010 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Or terrible at baseball.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 22, 2010 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions
I'd always heard he was real rough out there
That he’s got pretty good speed, but the acceleration and reads weren’t there. I could see him eventually developing into a roughly average fielder in LF with experience though.
Where’d you see those reports? I haven’t seen any recent stuff on him so I’d like to take a look.
Sorry for the delay
Some folks whose opinions I consider valid saw him play in Oakland. Obvious sample size issue here.
The monster at the end of this blog.
No worries, I don't doubt it
He definitely could be solid out there, he just needs to put some work in and start reading balls off the bat well.
I don't see what is so different between this year and last year
he hasn’t improved, and his K rate has slipped a bit, but I think the shiny BA, despite the main difference from that last two years being his BABIP, have people down on him. He presumably hits the crap out of the ball, hits a crapload of balls into the air, and a good deal of them are LD. His BABIP should probably be higher (not that .306 is incredibly bad, but for a guy with his power, LD rate, average running speed, and playing in the minors, its definitely low). Yes, the league is a hitting league, but he is in a pitcher’s park in that league, and I think we’ve already hashed out our arguments about the effects of the PCL.
by Navi's_Navy on Aug 22, 2010 12:59 AM EDT up reply actions
The K rate is what's different
It didn’t just slip a bit. It went from acceptably bad to terrible. His K/PA went from 20.0% to 24.9%, while his K/AB went from 24.3% to 29.4%, both of which point to a huge issue. You realize he has the fifth worst K rate in the PCL, right?
5% variation in K rate is well within the bounds of random variation
especially over the course of less than a full season.
I happen to think Carter is somewhat overrated, but that has zero to do with his bat.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Really? Not sure I buy that
I was always under the impression K rate stabilized very quickly, like in the neighborhood of 200 AB. I also think it’d be a little overly optimistic to chalk it up to that after people predicted his K rate would shoot up as he moved up and that exact thing happened. He has holes in his swings and better pitches are exploiting him. That’s a much more satisfying explanation IMO that just saying, well maybe he’s just been unlucky.
Not saying you're wrong,
but I checked Carter’s numbers at minorleaguesplits.com today and in April and May he had 189 AB and 224 PA, his K/AB was 31.2% and his K/PA was 26.3%. Since then though, he’s at 27.6% K/AB and 23.3% K/PA, which is a 3-3.5% difference. I’m pretty sure I’ve heard/read the 200 AB thing too, but it looks like maybe it’s not such a hard and fast rule.
http://bullpenbanter.com
That's a good point, he does seem to have improved some
But even the better, more recent numbers are a good bit worse than they were last season. Instead of about 5% worse, now they’re just about 3.3% worse.
Judge: Mr. Hutz we’ve been in here for four hours… do you have any evidence at all?Hutz: Well, Your Honor, we have plenty of hearsay and conjecture. Those are kinds of evidence.
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Not sure how serious you are considering its a Simpson's quote
But I definitely think Carter’s contact problems at AAA are good evidence that he will struggle to make contact at the MLB level.
Sure, it's not what you want to see by any means
I’m also not sure that he can’t improve upon what he’s done this year though. Whether it’s adjustment periods or streakiness, he’s been right at those 20% and 24% numbers over the last two months(20.2% and 24.2% in July and August). I’m not trying to parse down his season to prove I’m right, because I’m honestly not sure it isn’t just a hot streak that accounts for the improvement. It could be a hot streak or Carter adjusting to the way pitchers are approaching him. I just don’t think we can conclusively say one way or the other at this point.
http://bullpenbanter.com
Sure we can't say conclusively
We can’t really say much about any minor leaguer conclusively. My main point is the preponderance of evidence right now points to Carter having more trouble making contact against advanced pitching.
I'm not saying he's not going to K plenty at the MLB level
I’m just not sure it’s going to be as awful as you think it will be. I think your prediction of .235/.340/.460 is low. I think he’s fully capable of .260/.360/.500 or something similar. Everyone likes to point to his extremely high BABIP last year when he hit for average, but no one seems to look at this below average BABIP’s in 2008 and 2010-things that support the idea he can be more than a .235 hitter. I’m not accusing you of doing that, BTW. It just seems that in general it’s just the negative that is looked at and opinions formed from that, without looking at the whole picture. Time will tell though, and like a few other times in the past I’m certainly willing to agree to disagree here.
http://bullpenbanter.com
I certainly don't think that line is out of the question
I just think its one of the better scenarios. I’m also not sure I buy that he was that unlucky this 2010 and 2008. Sure there was probably some luck involved, but I just think 2009 is the big outlier here. He was generally around average prior to the past 3 years (a little better in 2007) and this year isn’t too far outside the PCL average. I think he’ll probably be better than average in terms of BABIP in the majors, but not by a ton.
I'm not saying last year wasn't an outlier
It absolutely was. His BABIP was 60 points higher than the average for the Texas League(per the list Satchel posted in the JD Martinez thread). Carter is a hitter that will likely post higher than average BABIP’s but certainly not that much higher.
On the flip side though, his BABIP in the Cal League was 75 points below the average. This year, his BABIP is 30-40 points below the PCL average. I’ve just seen too many people point to his .259 average in the Cal League and say he’s a low average hitter. He’s not going to contend for batting titles, but there isn’t any reason to believe he’s a .220 hitter like Rob Deer was either. Again, I don’t think that you specifically are doing this, I’ve just seen it enough in general.
I don’t like Ryan Howard as a comp for anyone, so I won’t use him here. I know people quickly dismiss Adam Dunn because hit for average in the minors, though we don’t know what his BABIP’s were(at least, I don’t know where to find them). His BABIP has been all over the place in the majors, with five years above .300 and five below. In the years he’s been below, four of them are below .280 and two are below .260! In four of the years with average or better BABIP, he’s hit over .260 with a .249 average the other year. Dunn isn’t a perfect comp either, as I don’t believe in projecting many guys(except maybe Harper and Stanton) for 40 HR a year, and Dunn has consistently posted walk rates around 16% year in and year out.
I hope Carter can be more consistent in terms of BABIP than Dunn has been, but maybe we see with his track record in the minors that he won’t be. I can see a career similar to Dunn, but with a walk rate in the 12-13% range and an ISO of .240-250 instead of .270+. I hesitate to call it a “poor man’s Adam Dunn” type career because people usually assume all slash stats will be lower and I don’t believe his batting average will be much lower.
http://bullpenbanter.com
Fair enough
Dunn didn’t have nearly the contact problems that Carter did in the minors. I think Carter is doomed to strike out more than Dunn in the bigs, which is one of the reasons I’m so down on him.
I’m also not sure where you’re pulling your BABIP numbers from. From 2007-2009 the BABIP in the PCL was .316, so his .309 is just 7 points below that. The CAL was at .333 over that period, so his .296 is only “only” 37 points below that. You must have made a mistake somewhere, because there is no way a .296 BABIP could ever be 75 points below a league average.
BABIP
I got the numbers here, Satchel didn’t link to the fangraphs article though.
http://bullpenbanter.com
I have to think those are wrong
I’m approximating based on 1-DER from this study that covers the same time period. If those numbers are right, then I would think the average batting averages in those leagues should be much higher. Minor leaguers don’t strike out that much.
His K rate dropped when he moved up from A+ to AA
That theory can’t even explain the past, much less the future.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
He improved back then (look at the LD rate and ISO)
I’m not saying that he can’t improve again and lower the K rate going forward. I think its pretty clear that he’s doing worse this year because of the more advanced pitching. I also think its part of the reason pitchers at ML level have made him look silly in a small sample size as well. You’re welcome to disagree and blame it all on luck, but I’d rather try and figure out why it might be happening.
I don't really get why you think so highly
of what are, in reality, remarkably banal observations.
When a player plays against tougher pitching, it’s harder to hit well. This is not rocket science. There’s a reason why there are things like MLEs and statistical translations.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
If thats the case
His K rate in July and August is 24.2% in 150 AB. Don’t want to look at his last 50 AB in June but I would think it would stay in the 25% range over then 200 AB. So after he adjusted to the league his K rate is down to last years level.
But he struck out in over 30% of his ABs in June
I don’t think its safe to assume it would stay right around 25%. He’s at 24.7% for his 162 AB in July and August (use MiLB.com for the current month, minorleaguesplits doesn’t update daily). If we give him the same K rate over the last 38 AB that he had for the month, he’s already back up to 26.3% again. So now, looking primarily at his two best months of the season, he’s still a good bit worse. Heck, after his K in his first AB tonight, he’s already back up to 26.8% this month. Honestly it just looks like last month was a bit of an outlier on the low end.
i saw a couple games where he played left...
Obviously there are some big sample size issues here, but he made the plays he was supposed to including a couple of catches on the run. One ball he sort of misread off the bat. It was headed over his head, but he managed to recover and make the catch.
I wouldn’t say he looks natural out there, but he’s a better athlete than he’s given credit for, and could probably hold it down if necessary.
by Alex Eisenberg on Aug 22, 2010 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions
I wouldn't exactly say a possibly average LF
Has any real defensive value. It wouldn’t be as negative as it could be, but it’d still be negative.
I've already seen Chris Davis with a lower Minor league K-Rate get eaten up after ML pitchers
figured out his hole and then destroyed his confidence. For guys like CD and Carter, if they are gonna make it, its gonna take alot of perserverance and refining, its not an easy transition thats for sure
The Ranger's will win the AL pennant by 2013
Chris Davis has the plate discipline of a punch-drunk armadillo
They’re not very similar at all.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
One thing I've learned from this thread is that apparently everybody who strikes out a lot in the minors is the same type of hitter.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 22, 2010 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I wish
I could say I’d learned something from this thread. lol
by blackoutyears on Aug 27, 2010 12:44 AM EDT up reply actions
he sounds like the West Coast version of Cody Johnson
but with MUCH more hype.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Aug 22, 2010 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions
no no
i just WISH Cody Johnson was like Chris Carter.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Aug 22, 2010 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Carter
I still maintain he is a Rob Deer type in the majors. They have similar power, similar contact issues, and very similar walk rates. If Carter can improve his fielding to Rob Deer level he will be a useful OF. If not, I don’t think I would want him at DH.
by King Billy Royal on Aug 21, 2010 1:09 PM EDT reply actions
Cardenas
Started in AAA, then went to AA, not the other way around.
cardenas again
Started in AAA, was demoted to AA, and promoted back to Sacramento a few weeks ago.
yeah, I've actually seen him in one of those games
He really hasn’t had a bad year, approach just needs a bit of work against AAA and it was a small sample anyways. It’s not a big deal, he is relatively young for a hitter in AAA and AAA is hard. He’s just not really geared for power at all, but he does have some pure hitting talent. If he can just hit for a bit of power, he’ll be a decent regular somewhere on the field, or at worst a very solid utility guy.
Hornbeck had mechanical issues earlier
The A’s adusted his arm slot again when they demoted him to Stockton.
And did Figueroa hurt his arm or shoulder, I’ve heard both.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I hate the way the A's have managed some of their players.
Carter up and sent down after a rough small sample cup of coffee, same with Cardenas, Brown, some guys have been promoted too fast (Donaldson, Ross). The state of the system is a little misleading with all the graduations that have occurred lately, but these next few years are very important for restocking talent.
Keep in mind, of course, that "the best defense of Derek Jeter's life" ranks somewhere in between "the best fiscal responsibility of Mike Tyson's life" and "the best not-getting-assassinated-ness of James Garfield's life." -FJM
When will Grant Green...
get promoted to Double-A? His plate discipline has improved over the last few weeks and his bat has obviously outgrown Single-A ball. I guess the only thing holding him back is his defense. He’s averaging almost an error every 3 games with needs to be improved. Still, the bat is certainly special.
His errors come in bunches
And he’s obviously had several bunches. What worries me more is John’s “mediocre range” comment. This is a downgrade from what I was hearing before the season.
The monster at the end of this blog.
It was mentioned not long ago
That A’s are keeping him in high A stockton to remain with Manager Steve Scarsone who is working with him on his defense.
He said statistically though
Not sure what he’s using to determine range statistically. I don’t think TZR is supposed to be released for minor leaguers until after the season. I’d like to hear some scouting opinions on his range (and his arm strength).
http://bullpenbanter.com/
range
I was looking at his range factor.
Yes, range factor is not especially relaible, especially at the minor league level. But a range factor of 3.75 for an every day shortstop….that is suspiciously poor. We will see what TZR says and what the scouting reports indicate at the end of the year of course.
by John Sickels on Aug 21, 2010 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions
3.75 is very bad, but RF has wierd anomalys in the majors all the time.
although it has been pretty good at SS on the extremes. I would rather see some TZ information, and even that is suspect.
agreed
Agreed. It is hard to know either way based just on RF.
But 3.75….eeeek.
Let’s just say that an extreme reading like that makes me think his range needs to be looked at closely. I reserve judgment until we get TZR and end-of-year scouting reports, but the range is one issue we have to consider in detail.
by John Sickels on Aug 22, 2010 8:43 AM EDT up reply actions
I thought Hoehn was going to be transitioned to starting
Jeez. Here I thought ONE guy had actually had a good year, and then I realize that he’s still just a bullpen arm.
Horrible, horrible, horrible season. Has there ever been a farm where so much apparent value just evaporated in the course of four months?
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
A few players having solid seasons
There are players having solid seasons but A’s having player repeat levels or staying at a level too long without challenging them like green, parker in high A for all this season so far. Brown, Cardenas,Mitchell.
Obviously injuries and stalled progress for weeks, figueroa, ynoa, ross, simmons, carignan, doolittle hasnt helped. More injuries, whats new.
The A’s are still a young team at the mlb level cahill, anderson, mazzaro, gio, rodriguez are 22-24 yrs old. I see some stability at SS pennington, 1b Barton, and C Suzuki. The rest of their mlb offense needs a huge overhaul
Henry Rodriguez
The other night vs toronto 20 of his 23 were 98-101 mph
Last night vs TB 10 of his 11 pitches 99-101 mph
Also 1bb in his last 8 appearances is good
At some point you’d like to see an improvement and use in the breaking pitches
John, quick question on an obscure A's prospect
I noticed a guy named Royce Consigli playing for the A’s’ AZL team. He was a 30th round pick in 2009, which means he should be irrelevant, but he’s only 18 and he’s hitting .338/.403/.496, which seems pretty good for a guy his age, even at that level. Do you have any idea who he is?
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
nope
Nope, no more than what you just posted. Never heard of the guy.
by John Sickels on Aug 21, 2010 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks
The dude must be so far under the radar that he’s underground.
Does the AZL generaly favor hitters strongly? Do you know whether it’s unusual for an 18-year-old to put up those kinds of numbers there?
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
In a scout chat,
he was said to have had good tools. Haven’t heard much of him other than that.
Keep in mind, of course, that "the best defense of Derek Jeter's life" ranks somewhere in between "the best fiscal responsibility of Mike Tyson's life" and "the best not-getting-assassinated-ness of James Garfield's life." -FJM
AZL
AZL is a high-offense league most seasons.
by John Sickels on Aug 21, 2010 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Generally rookie ball is VERY pitcher friendly
The ballparks are built for 25 year olds. Put a bunch of 18 year olds in them and the dimensions are frankly too large.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
But on the other hand, it is Arizona
so I guess that counteracts it some.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
depends
GCL is very pro-pitcher. AZL tends to be pro-hitter, due to the weather I think
by John Sickels on Aug 22, 2010 8:44 AM EDT up reply actions
The two most hitter friendly leagues are rookie leagues
The Arizona Summer League and Pioneer League have highest run scoring environments in the minors by far.
I guess for what Consigli is doing, it's pretty hitter friendly
I’m right about the dimensions— the HR rate is insanely low— but overall there are a lot of runs scored, mostly because the players can’t field (average DER of .664— i.e. one in three balls put into play is not turned into an out).
Also apparently it’s comically easy to steal bases there.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Leagues can be hitter friendly without being HR friendly
I wouldn’t be surprised if the bigger fields were part of the reason the defensive efficiency is so bad.
You were also talking about Rookie leagues in general and the Pioneer League is extremely hitter friendly with an extremely high HR rate for the level. I guess my main point is most levels have both hitter and pitcher friendly leagues. We shouldn’t make generalizations just based on level.
The Pioneer League is short-season ball
College draftees in the 3d-10th round range are sent there. It doesn’t surprise me that the HR rate is far higher.
Complex leagues almost never see college juniors and seniors unless they were drafted in the organizational-player section of the draft.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
It's higher than most leagues
The only ones higher are AAA, the Texas League, and the California League. The Pioneer is still Rookie league ball too. Its not as low as the complex leagues, but its not short season A either.
Meh
It’s essentially short-season. 2 of 8 MLB franchises have an actual short-season team in addition to a Pioneer League team. The rest use the Pioneer League team as their short-season team.
Labels are irrelevant.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Ian Krol had a good year, and could make next year's Top 20. But wow, what a disaster.
Ryan Ortiz is another who could conceivably amount to something. Rashun Dixon bounced back somewhat. Travis Banwart has a nice K-rate in AAA. OK that’s all I got.
I hate Bob Geren and his peanut brain so much -- lenscrafters
yeah
i’m pretty sure he WILL be making the top 20, possibly the top 10.
by auclairkeithbc on Aug 21, 2010 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Also, FWIW, Michael Choice has done a pretty good job so far in Vancouver
Two caveats: 1) He’s a 1st-round, college junior playing in rookie ball, 2) his K rate and K/BB need improvement. But he has been legitimately mashing the ball (.327/.414/.694).
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Dixon bounced back a lot and spent some time in CF
Stassi has potential.
Keep an eye out for SP Robert Gilliam next season.
The monster at the end of this blog.
I'm not sure what to do with Stassi
I have no concerns about the defense, but the approach at the plate has been pretty terrible. I was not expecting strikeouts to be a problem with him given the HS scouting reports.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
It's his first year in pro ball and Low-A was an aggressive placement
I want to see how he adjusts (or fails to adjust) next season before worrying about the K’s.
The monster at the end of this blog.
What level do you think he'll be placed at next season?
Think they’ll have him repeat Kane County or would they move him up to Stockton?
by bakerbeachboy on Aug 23, 2010 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions
He probably goes to Stockton
‘Course, Instructs and ST will go a long way in that decision but I think they’d like to keep him and Krol together.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Good point
I hope a lot of his offensive struggles lately are due more to wearing down in his first professional season. Although the K’s have been an issue the entire year so we’ll see.
by bakerbeachboy on Aug 24, 2010 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Shawn Haviland has put up some intriguing stats as well.
What you fail to understand in your joyless myopia is that baseball is the key to life-- the Rosetta Stone, if you will. If you just understood baseball better all your other questions your, your... the, uh... the aliens, the conspiracies they would all, in their way be answered by the baseball gods.
by winchester5 on Aug 22, 2010 12:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Even Krol isn't showing the kind of K rate we'd want to see
His stats say “super-polished for his age but lacking big-time stuff.”
That said, I suppose the A’s have managed to pull some rabbits out of their hats when it comes to pitchers’ stuff before (eg Brett Anderson). So I think he’s easily top 10 given the rest of this radioactive wreckage.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
A's prospects all seem to have one or two major flaws.
I thought Taylor was the exception to that rule, but I guess not.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
Does anyone know what kind of stuff Matt Thomson has? This years 12th round pick. Good stats so far!
Average at best fastball, changes speed and throws strikes
His command makes his stuff play up.
The monster at the end of this blog.
i gotta disagree just a bit...
His fastball velocity is average, but it’s definitely a difficult pitch to pick up out of his hand. It looks faster than the low 90’s it’s typically clocked in.
And while he does throw strikes, command is actually somewhat of a issue for him though it hasn’t been that a big problem so far as a pro.
I agree he does a good job of changing speeds, as well as moving his fastball around the strike zone to keep hitters guessing and off balance.
by Alex Eisenberg on Aug 22, 2010 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, your observation differs from two scouting reports I've read
Your the first to say low-90’s. His scouting report outa college said 88-90 and the A’s minor league pitching co-ordinator strongly implies less than 90 average velocity. So while I’d like you to be right re: velocity… you’re going to have to back up the claim.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Here's what I found...
Before I begin, however, in the game I was able to watch, there was no radar gun reading was on display and the announcer did not once mention what number was popping up on the stadium gun while he pitched.
With that said, his BA scouting report from 2009, when he was a starter said this:
His fastball sits in the 90-91 mph range, peaking at 92
I don’t have access to his 2010 scouting report…I’m actually not sure if he had one.
From Perfect Game:
Struggles in college vs. aluminum, excels in summer vs. wood; +locates low-90s FB, other pitches average
From a site called Baseball Draft Report (not sure how credible this one is):
93 FB peak (2.81 FIP; 12.73 K/9; 2.41 BB/9) *
Article from Thomson’s first start with Stockton:
Thomson kept hitters off balance with his off-speed pitches and hit spots on the inside and outside corners to demonstrate command of his 94 mph fastball. He walked the first batter he faced but settled in to strike out six in a row.
Now, the BA report also said he didn’t get much movement on his fastball. His movement/life looked pretty good in the game I watched, and again hitters were late in reacting to his fastball, making it seem harder than it probably was.
I also went to look at his draft video and in that clip he threw 87, 88, 90, and 90 in a February appearance. However, his mechanics look like they’ve been cleaned up since then and perhaps that’s what is accounting for some of the higher velocities of late.
by Alex Eisenberg on Aug 22, 2010 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions
If he's hitting 94 now, he's a legitimate prospect.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Aug 23, 2010 5:42 AM EDT up reply actions
As I noted, the A's have had significant success coaxing extra velocity out of players
Contrary to popular belief, it CAN be taught. They seem to do a pretty good job finding junkball college pitchers with bad mechanics but good offspeed pitches and then turning them into “real” pitchers by improving the fastball.
"We don't want our people to be preoccupied with seminude, crazy men jumping up and down who are chasing an inflated object," said Sheik Mohamed Osman Arus, head of operations for the Hizbul Islam insurgent group.
Links man, links!
Hopefully we’ll find some clarity during the offseason.
The monster at the end of this blog.
Nice
Alex Eisenberg is the guy I dun for links. Because, you know, he lacks credibility.
by blackoutyears on Aug 27, 2010 12:52 AM EDT up reply actions
Cardenas also had a wrist injury at the beginning of the year. That likely slowed his development this season.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 22, 2010 10:12 AM EDT reply actions
I thought it was a thumb problem
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Who had a wrist injury? Was that Taylor?
Anyway, I remember Cardenas having an injury that very well could’ve affected his ability to hold and swing a bat. Thumb, wrist, it’s all the same (it’s not the same, really, but both would be good explanations for a poor start).
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 22, 2010 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I meant Cardenas
Here’s a scout.com blurb from May that refers to him missing a month after injuring a ligament in his thumb this spring.
Going back a few years, remember Swisher’s last AAA season, when his power was down due to an injury? That was either the wrist or the thumb, too.
"And Julio Franco is batting right-handed!" -- Wayne Hagin, A's radio play-by-play, mid-80s
Okay, it was the thumb. I thought some A's prospect was out with a wrist thing. Maybe not.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Aug 23, 2010 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
John, what do you think of Capra now?
Does he have the stuff to make it if he cuts down the BB’s?
Keep in mind, of course, that "the best defense of Derek Jeter's life" ranks somewhere in between "the best fiscal responsibility of Mike Tyson's life" and "the best not-getting-assassinated-ness of James Garfield's life." -FJM
not John, but
When I saw him, he was pitching like a guy who thought he was going to be hit if he threw strikes. He only sat in the high 80s, but he shifted into second gear late and got it up to 93 MPH. I think he’s probably destined for relief work if he makes to make it in the majors, but if he could sit in the low 90s and pitch with confidence that’d be an interesting option.
Thanks, I apppreciate the input.
Keep in mind, of course, that "the best defense of Derek Jeter's life" ranks somewhere in between "the best fiscal responsibility of Mike Tyson's life" and "the best not-getting-assassinated-ness of James Garfield's life." -FJM
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