2010 Detroit Tigers Top 20 Pre-Season Prospect List in Review
by John Sickels on Aug 19, 2010 4:00 PM EDT
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Here is a review of the 2010 Tigers prospect list, originally published January 3, 2010. THIS IS A REVIEW OF THE OLD LIST AND PRE-SEASON GRADES. THIS IS NOT A NEW LIST. The 2011 list and new grades won't be ready until the season is over and I start writing the book.
1) Casey Crosby, LHP, Grade B+: Just 12 innings for the GCL Tigers, rehabbing a sore elbow, but was shut down again in early July. It all depends on his health.
2) Jacob Turner, RHP, Grade B+: 3.77 ERA with 83/20 K/BB in 100 innings for Low-A West Michigan and High-A Lakeland, 97 hits. He's had a good season, though not a spectacular one.
3) Austin Jackson, OF, Grade B: Hitting .302/.354/.405 with 18 steals in 22 attempts for the Tigers. He's kept the batting average up all year despite a poor BB/K ratio. More home runs may come in time. I've always liked him better than the numbers said I should.
4) Alex Avila, C, Grade B: .219/.311/.332 in 71 games for the Tigers. Not a great year for the rookie, but he will get more chances.
5) Dan Schlereth, LHP, Grade B: 2.37 ERA with 60/34 K/BB in 49 innings for Triple-A Toledo, 40 hits. Has given up 10 hits and five runs in five major league innings. Love the strikeouts but command is still an issue.
6) Scott Sizemore, 2B, Grade B-: Got the plug pulled pretty fast. .205/.282/.282 in the majors, .292/.360/.455 for Toledo. I think he deserves another chance.
7) Ryan Strieby, 1B-OF, Grade B-: .245/.323/.400 for Toledo, 10 homers, 85 strikeouts in 290 at-bats, 33 walks. Lots of trouble in his home park, just .642 OPS vs. .827 on road.
8) Andy Oliver, LHP, Grade B-: Got killed in ill-advised major league promotion (7.36 ERA, 18/13 K/BB, 26 hits in 22 innings) but has had a good year for Double-A Erie and Toledo, 3.70 ERA, 93/38 K/BB in 105 innings. Not bad considering lack of A-ball experience and Nietzschean Tigers prospect philosophy.
9) Casper Wells, OF, Grade C+: .228/.305/.470 for Toledo, 32 walks, 106 strikeouts, 20 homers. I liked him a lot pre-season. Power is nice but his approach is getting away from him.
10) Wilkin Ramirez, OF, Grade C+: .229/.295/.450 with 21 homers, 36 walks, 154 strikeouts between Erie, Toledo, and Triple-A Gwinnett in the Braves system following a trade. Has tools, approach at the plate sucks.
11) Daniel Fields, SS, Grade C+: .232/.340/.363 for Lakeland. Why is this guy at Lakeland? He's only 19, had no rookie ball experience, and was considered raw coming out of a Michigan high school. Hard to judge at this point.
12) Cody Satterwhite, RHP, Grade C+: Has missed entire year with shoulder problems.
13) Robbie Weinhardt, RHP, Grade C+: 1.98 ERA with 18/4 K/BB in 27 innings for Toledo, 7.79 ERA with 11/5 K/BB in 17 innings for the Tigers, 24 hits. Will get more chances.
14) Brayan Villareal, RHP, Grade C+: 3.58 ERA, 117/34 K/BB in 113 innings for Lakeland and Erie, 97 hits. A very nice season, I like him.
15) Alfredo Figaro, RHP, Grade C: 4.14 ERA, 112/39 K/BB in 124 innings for Toledo, 142 hits. Nice K/BB ratio. Not a hot prospect at age 26 but could be useful.
16) Luis Marte, RHP, Grade C: 5.06 ERA, 53/26 K/BB in 48 innings for Erie, 44 hits. Good K-rate, otherwise blah.
17) Gustavo Nunez, SS, Grade C: .226/.264/.287 for Lakeland, 27 steals. Other than speed, he's pretty worthless offensively this year.
18) Melvin Mercedes, RHP, Grade C: 5.03 ERA, 12/19 K/BB in 20 innings for West Michigan. Out with Tommy John.
19) Ramon Lebron, RHP, Grade C: 5.38 ERA, 102/48 K/BB in 77 innings between West Michigan, GCL Tigers, and Connecticut in the New York-Penn League. His command was horrible in the Midwest League but he seems to have improved after being sent down to rookie ball to fix it. He'll try again in full-season ball next year. Love the strikeouts.
20) Cale Iorg, SS, Grade C: .211/.248/.333 with 17 walks, 135 strikeouts in 418 at-bats for Erie. He can't hit.
Brennan Boesch has been a great story this year although he's coming back to earth. He's always had the power, but did just enough with his approach this year to unleash it. We'll see if he can maintain it. I don't agree with how quickly the Tigers rush pitchers and some of their hitters. I much prefer the Tampa Bay approach.
I'm really glad Austin Jackson is having a strong debut...I went out on a limb with him.
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Tigers Rookies
Schlereth, Oliver, and Weinhardt have all been rushed to the Tigers, this happens with injuries.
Ryan Strieby was recently shutdown again with reoccuring wrist problems, a continuing problem since 2008.
Dan Fields should do Hi-A Lakeland again in 2011 as a 20 year old.
Maybe next year a black hole in the Tigers system at third base will have the likes of Nick Castellanos, Frankie Martinez, and Javier Azcona discussed in the prospects discussion.
a couple of years down the road Danry Vazquez a young projected corner outfielder will hopefully be in the mix.
Does Wade Gaynor
fit into your 3B mix? Nothing really jumps out but he’s had a solid year, even with ARL factors.
by blackoutyears on Aug 20, 2010 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Turner
With his disappointing season-compared to what was expected-is he still a B+ guy or did he slide down to a B?
by mattp31 on Aug 19, 2010 6:41 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I suppose his grade could drop, but I think it would look like a mistake this time next year. With the injury, if John believed in him last off-season, he should still believe in him now. I understand why some are concerned, but I’d be more concerned with Matzek’s control issues. That was a minor concern heading into the draft and continues to be an issue. Doesn’t seem like many think Matzek’s grade should change so I don’t see why Turner’s would.
turner
no lower than B. undecided, could still be B+. need to review reports.
by John Sickels on Aug 19, 2010 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I guess I'd want to know what was expected...
…because I wouldn’t call it disappointing by any stretch of the imagination. How many high-school pitchers see high-A ball in their first professional year? The Tigers wanted to challenge the kid to see how he would handle it. He struggled in his first 3 high-A starts (12 IP – 21 H – 13 ER – 3HR – 4BB – 10K), but since then he’s gone 34.1 IP – 23 H – 6 ER – 0 HR – 7BB – 22K.
I think he’ll need to bump up his strikeout rate before he heads to the bandbox in Erie, but he has walked fewer than 5% of the batters he has faced this year, and I couldn’t be happier with the kid.
No kidding
I don’t see anything about Turner’s stats or early scouting reports to be disappointed about. I think he’s performed very well. People are acting like he went out and get crushed in low A ball.
For me, he’s still right there with Matzek and Miller.
I don't get this either
Why overreact to his first pro exposure? If he has some mechanical/health issue you get concerned, but he seems fine in that regard, he’s on pace to throw over 100 innings, he has a solid walk rate, and he does a decent job of keeping the ball in the park. Six of his last seven starts have been very good. Seems like he’s on a roll to me. We also have no idea what he’s been workign on this year. Just as Matzek reports that he’s been told to shelve his CB to work on his change, Turner may have, or had, a similar developmental restriction. Can’t stress enough that it’s about development, not results, at this stage.
by blackoutyears on Aug 20, 2010 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions
Another great start for Turner...
Five more scoreless innings, with 4 hits, 1 BB, and 7 Ks. Kid now had 90 strikeouts against 21 walks in 105.1 IP
I know it's unlikely people will come back to visit this...
But Turner has really been tremendous over his last 10 games in high-A. Just a 1.28 ERA with 32 Hits, 10 BB, and 41 Ks in 49.1 IP.
All in all, I’d say it was a tremendous year for the kid.
Daniel Fields
I’m really high on Fields. The #‘s don’t look outstanding but I’m really encouraged by that performance in Hi-A at his age.
He's an average hitter for the FSL
And his walk rate is phenomenal. If he could cut down on the strikeouts…
Assist. Editor, Minor League Division, Bless You Boys
Daniel Fields is better than you.
by David Tokarz on Aug 19, 2010 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes it is...second highest walk rate in the entire league (12.9%)
Behind only Brett Jackson at 13.8%
I’m sort of getting the impression that he may never hit for a high average — probably in the .270 range — but I think his power potential and ability to take a walk will make up for it.
I think he may get that strikeout rate down in the future, and probably hit for more power, once he takes a more aggressive approach at the plate. Almost 9% of his Ks are looking, so he may be patient to a fault at this point. I fully expect him to do some real damage in the FSL next year, and I’m envisioning a Nick Swisher type, except with plus D in RF.
you don't think he'll ever hit for a high average based on what he did at age 19?
That’s bold. And he’s a plus defender in RF? I thought he was still playing SS.
I’m worried that the high walk rate is basically just Fields being overmatched and staring at the ball a lot as it comes towards the plate. He’ll need to become more aggressive to be successful . . .but at the same time, if he’s more aggressive at the plate, it’s likely that the rawness in his game will be further exposed.
They moved him to CF before the year
And the reports are that he’s taking to it very well. I’m projecting him at RF down the line because I expect him to fill out a little bit, and I think Jackson will be a superior fielder in CF. The average thing isn’t just a hunch…from the reports I’ve read, his hit tool is the only thing scouts aren’t sure of. He already has a plus arm, and most expect him to hit for plus power, be an above-average runner, and provide above-average defense. The reports on his hit tool seem to range from below-average to plus, so I’m just being conservative.
me too
Isn’t the story that he went to hi-A as an injury sub, and showed that he could handle it, so they kept him there?
Ideally, next year he starts again in hi-A, puts up above average numbers and then gets to spend most of the season in AA perhaps.
I’m higher on him now than I was coming into the year, and I was high enough on him then to draft him in the 2nd round in my 30 team sim dynasty league.
I believe you're right
Though I can’t remember who he was subbing for.
Assist. Editor, Minor League Division, Bless You Boys
Daniel Fields is better than you.
by David Tokarz on Aug 20, 2010 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Jackson
I am a big fan of this guy. He plays a great CF and is a pretty good hitter for a kid his age. I could see him developing power down the line as he is an unbelievable athlete. A lot of people are eating their words after what they said about him last season.
by King Billy Royal on Aug 20, 2010 12:42 AM EDT reply actions
He's still striking out a ton and not walking that much...
Is it really possible he can maintain an elite LD% with that kind of approach…? I’m very skeptical he can… and if the BABIP regresses to something normal the AVG goes down everything goes with it… and then he doesn’t look very impressive at all as a hitter. Not sure I see a whole lot more power coming with that swing, either.
His defense has been fairly impressive, though. I think the guy is a solid regular, but I don’t see him as any kind of impact guy.
Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor
I still don't understand all of the strikeouts
Every time I’ve watched him play, he seems to have a good approach at the plate, and his plate discipline numbers are only slightly worse than league average:
It just seems odd for him to be a high K guy.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
I wonder if its the length of his swing more than his approach...
He’s not walking much either, though.
Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor
The strikeouts are mostly because of his approach
Jackson makes his living hitting the ball up the middle and the other way, and as such he often waits a long time (relatively) to swing. I’ve watched him play about 100 times this year, and it seems to me that the majority of his Ks come when he swings right through fastballs that are in the zone. He doesn’t chase that many balls, but by waiting so long to swing, a lot of fastballs get right by him.
Three more swinging Ks tonight (along with 2 more hits), two of the Ks were on 91mph fastballs right down the middle, and the other was on a pretty nice curveball that broke out of the zone
His defense has been more than 'fairly impressive'
He has been outstanding in CF. He continues to hold his own at the plate especially for a player of his age. It seems like every season that people say ‘he can’t sustain his AVG’ and yet he continues to do so. As he fills out it is very possible that he adds some pop and I could see him becoming a .300 hitter with 12-15 homers while being one of the 3 best CFs in the game.
by King Billy Royal on Aug 20, 2010 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions
I understand it’s early days with UZR, but at this point, the numbers have him at 3.4 UZR/150.
That’s good, but I wouldn’t call it “outstanding”. It’s been brought down by 5 errors and a bad arm rating. He clearly gets to a good number of balls, but needs to improve his arm and not make so many errors.
other metrics...
Total Zone (88 OOZ) and +/- (17 runs saved) pretty much have him as the #1 defensive CF in the game. Wouldn’t go just with UZR.
Agreed
Austin is unbelievable in the field.
by King Billy Royal on Aug 25, 2010 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions
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