2010 Houston Astros Top 20 Pre-Season Prospects in Review
by John Sickels on Aug 19, 2010 10:00 AM EDT
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2010 Houston Astros Top 20 Prospects in Review
Here is a review of the 2010 Astros prospect list, originally published January 12, 2010. THIS IS A REVIEW OF THE OLD LIST AND PRE-SEASON GRADES. THIS IS NOT A NEW LIST. The 2011 list and new grades won't be ready until the season is over and I start writing the book.
1) Jason Castro, C, Grade B+: .265/.365/.355 for Triple-A Round Rock, .195/.269/.280 in the majors. He will get more chances.
2) Jordan Lyles, RHP, Grade B+: 3.12 ERA, 115/35 K/BB in 127 innings for Double-A Corpus Christi, 133 hits. Promoted to Triple-A this month, did well in his first start but lost, got killed in his second but got a no-decision. Such is baseball. He's only 19 and in Triple-A.
3) Jiovanni Mier, SS, Grade B: .225/.309/.296 for Low-A Lexington. Has drawn some walks, stolen 12 bases, but has also made 31 errors and not shown nearly the pop he demonstrated last year in rookie ball. Still interesting due to youth and athleticism, but yet another example that rookie ball stats (and scouting reports) have to be taken with a grain of salt.
4) Sammy Gervacio, RHP, Grade B-: Just 10 innings for Round Rock and 3.2 in the majors, his season ruined by a sore shoulder.
5) Chia-Jen Lo, RHP, Grade B-: Just 15 innings for Corpus Christi, although they weren't bad, three runs allowed, 13 strikeouts. Torn ulnar collateral ligament.
6) Tanner Bushue, RHP, Grade B-: 4.28 ERA, 101/42 K/BB in 116 innings for Lexington, 111 hits. Not horrible, not terrific, but shows some promise. Main problem is homers and high fly ball rate.
7) T.J. Steele, OF, Grade C+: .228/.259/.315 for CC, undone by horrid plate discipline (10 walks, 67 strikeouts in 241 at-bats) and contact problems. Out with a hand injury.
8) Jay Austin, OF, Grade C+: .271/.325/.427 with 51 steals for Lancaster. Love the speed, although he needs to improve his success rate. Power is starting to show up, home/road splits are fairly even, just turned 20 this month.
9) Jon Gaston, OF, Grade C+: .252/.317/.399 for CC, 10 homers, 12 steals, mediocre plate discipline. Slow start, .233/.309/.349 in the first half, .280/.328/.472 in the second.
10) Ross Seaton, RHP, Grade C+: 6.17 ERA for Lancaster, 71/41 K/BB in 128 innings, 167 hits. Incredible home/road split: 8.82 ERA with 29/19 K/BB and 89 hits in 51 innings at home, 4.42 ERA with 42/22 K/BB in 77 innings on the road, 78 hits. Road stats are more his genuine talent level I'd say.
11) Matt Nevarez, RHP, Grade C+: 4.11 ERA for CC, 27/38 K/BB in 31 innings, 26 hits. He has good stuff but the walk rate is horrific.
12) Fernando Abad, LHP, Grade C+: 2.35 ERA with 42/8 K/BB in 46 innings between CC and Round Rock, 53 hits. He's hittable but I like the guy for some reason.
13) Juri Perez, RHP, Grade C+: Just 6.1 innings for the GCL Astros, six hits, four runs, four walks. Sample too small to mean anything.
14) Chris Johnson, 3B, Grade C: .329/.362/.570 in 38 games for Round Rock, .357/.384/.546 in 53 games for the Astros, albeit with a 9:40 BB:K. Here is the thing with Chris Johnson. I saw him play Double-A and Triple-A in '08 and '09, and while he had bat speed, his approach was poor, both in person and on paper. His BB/K is still lousy this year (18/63 overall) but there he is with the gaudy numbers. I think it is a fluke and that he's really a .250-.270 hitter, but I could be wrong. Other analysts have seen him as a breakout guy even when I was skeptical.
15) Polin Trinidad, LHP, Grade C: 5.04 ERA, 78/32 K/BB in 123 innings between RR and CC, 155 hits. Good control, but stuff may be a bit short.
16) Collin DeLome, OF, Grade C: .235/.287/.460 for RR, 14 homers, 15 walks, 82 strikeouts in 272 at-bats. The power is real and he has some speed, but his contact problems and lack of patience hold him back.
17) Brain Bogusevic, OF, Grade C: .289/.374/.432 for RR, 60 walks, 22 steals in 23 attempts. Looks to me like he could be a really nice fourth outfielder.
18) Enrique Hernandez, INF, Grade C: .280/.316/.389 for Tri-City in the New York-Penn League. Turns 19 next week. Hasn't done anything to stand out yet, but quite young.
19) Brad Dydalewicz, LHP, Grade C: Command collapse, 9.64 ERA with 49/57 K/BB in 75 innings between Lancaster and Lexington, 96 hits. Still young at 20 but everything went bad here.
20) J.D. Martinez, OF, Grade C: Hit .362/.433/.598 for Lexington in 88 games, then jumped to CC and continued bashing at .336/.400/.483. Overall: .356/.424/.569, 18 homers, 37 doubles, 44 walks, 81 strikeouts in 464 at-bats. I had him rated as a sleeper in the book and he's definitely woken up. He's got decent physical tools and it is hard to believe he lasted until the 20th round last year.
Mixed results. Castro couldn't hit in the majors but will get more chances. Lyles has been strong, but injury attrition and command problems have dropped the stock of several pitchers. Martinez looks like a real steal right now. I still don't quite trust Johnson, but maybe I'm stubborn there.
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not a great year for this system
The depth has gotten a bit better thanks to the draft and the emergence of Martinez, Koby Clemens, and J.B. Shuck. Lyles has done well. On the other hand when you had 3 B or higher prospects coming into the year at the top of the system and two of them have mostly crapped the bed, it’s hard to spin that well. Even the players who have emerged this year look more like fringe regulars.
Not a great year for most of these twenty players
But I think it’s been a good year for the Astros’ farm system as a whole, as much because of additions in the draft/international free agency/trade as due to player performances this season from guys just off this list.
As John mentioned last year, the back end of this list was at that time interchangeable with a bunch of other similarly talented guys. A few of them have raised their stock to the B- or even grade B range. Jose Altuve is a personal favorite.
Notable draft additions this year (outside of the first round of the draft which everybody already knows about) include Vincent Velasquez, Austin Wates, and Ben Heath. Jonathan Villar and Jimmy Paredes came in trade and provide much needed high-ceiling middle infield depth. International free agency brought in OF Ariel Ovando and a bunch of high-ceiling pitching prospects.
So, sure. The top twenty prospects list will have an entirely different flavor at the end of the year than this one, but I still think it’s been a good year for the system overall.
+1 on Altuve
He’s awfully short IIRC, but he’s done nothing but hit and wasn’t he the best 2B defender in his league on the BA Tools report?
Really looking forward to seeing how Wates does, and what position he plays.
by blackoutyears on Aug 19, 2010 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Perez
Perez had elbow surgery last off season. He has just started rehab in GCL. I would watch for him in winterball to see what he does there. Look for him to be in Lex next year.
Abad & Villar
He is back in the Astros pen now.
What do you think of Henry Villar who jumped high A and has done well in AA this year.
CJ is definitely playing well over his head at this point. Your probably right for what type of hitter he is, but he may be a little better, but definitely not this good.
Castro has been pretty unlucky all season. He’s hit a ton of hard hit liners strait at fielders. I expect his numbers to be much higher next season, albeit not much above average at most.
Gaston’s numbers have been improving the second half like you mentioned, but I want to point out the park in Corpus Christi. Right field faces the coast, and it literally is right there on the opening of the channel so there is a strong wind that blows in from RF. Being that Gaston’s power is primarily pull-side as a lefty, it has suppresed his power some this season.
Bushue started off really well to the season with a bunch of dominating performances, although his flyball rate was still high then, but a start or two before he got a DL stint is when it all went wrong. Since then, he’s had that HR problem with all of his flyballs.
Nitpick
CC stadium actually faces towards Corpus
Christi Bay. Gorgeous stadium, especially for the level. Also, it has interesting dimensions. 315 to left, 330 or so to right I think (feel free to check me), but 400 plus to center. In other words, as you might expect, guys with gap power make an awesome living there.
by mrkupe on Aug 19, 2010 11:28 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
JR Towles
JR Towles © is not eligible for this list and I apologize if this is off topic… He appears to be rehabbing, but it doesn’t look like he will play again this year at this point. Is he THAT awful or does he just need a team change. He’s looked good at times. Is there any hope for him?
About Chris Johnson
Obviously, he doesn’t walk enough. But he’s gotten a lot better at getting a good pitch to hit, and has shown the ability to hit the ball where it’s pitched to all fields, both breaking balls and fastballs, in all parts of the zone. He’s due for some serious BABIP regression, but at the same time, I think his ability to hit for average (not .350 obviously) is real. The question for me is more, will he provide enough pop to compensate for his lack of walks?
I'd say no
His slumps are going to be worse than most other guys because he doesn’t have the plate discipline. Also, most major league pitchers usually deal with these type of hitters well so they’ll keep him off balance even if he’s swinging decently.
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Don't underestimate
His reduction in strikeout rate. At AAA this season he struck out in only 14.1% of his 163 plate appearances, which is obviously a huge improvement over what he did before. He was given some adjustments to make there, and he made them.
Since being called back up from AAA in late June, he has struck out in 18.1% of his major league plate appearances.
So, that’s why I think he can hit for average—he has shown the ability to make significant adjustments and lower the amount of strikeouts he takes. Plus, over the last three years he has always had a premium line drive rate and a high BABIP.
So, I think a strikeout rate around 15 to 20% and a BABIP around .310 to .330 would be a reasonable most likely outcome. The median there would be 17.5% strikeout rate, and .320 BABIP, which should be around a .280 or .290 hitter.
The question becomes, is he more of a 10 HR guy or more of a 20 HR guy?
Hmmm
I think the power will be serviceable. I could see him hitting 20+ HR quite regularly if he acquired enough ABs. However, I think he will have a really hard time sustaining a good enough average to make up for the lack of walks. I’ll be surprised if he’s much better than a .270 hitter with a .310 OBP. That type of player could stick around as a starting 3B, but he’s not really going to be a great one.
I could see Juan Uribe being a decent comp, statistically anyway. They have similar minor league stats, and both are capable of putting together a nice season or two. Johnson has a little better upside, but also plays a position that requires a little more offense. If he ends up having an equal career to Uribe, that will be a good thing for CJ.
by auclairkeithbc on Aug 19, 2010 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Uribe's
value is greatly tied into his ability to play multiple INF positions, so I take it you’re referring only to hitting in that comp?
by blackoutyears on Aug 19, 2010 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah
Basically. I was saying if he exceeds Uribe offensively, to the point that he was equally valuable overall, that would be quite a good thing for Chris Johnson. I don’t really expect him to do that though. I do think there is a good chance for him to be similar offensively, and eek out a pro career.
by auclairkeithbc on Aug 19, 2010 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions
makes sense
he could easily be a comparable or better hitter from what I’ve seen; it’s not like Uribe is world class, but he’s somewhat underrated. How’s Johnson’s glove holding up?
by blackoutyears on Aug 19, 2010 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions
It's okay
He’s pretty good at charging slowly hit balls and his arm is a cannon, but he struggles with accuracy sometimes and he’ll never have good lateral agility. Overall I’d peg him at a few runs below average.
Seems like
the Astros have some solid average guys to build on in Wallace, Johnson and Pence. I’ve been a Keppinger fan since he was a Red and he’s doing what he always done when given PT: hitting. If they can graduate Castro and Lyles they’ll have a decent, medium-ceiling core to build around.
by blackoutyears on Aug 19, 2010 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Paulino, Norris, Bourn
J.D. Martinez, and lots of relief prospects coming up. Lots of decent players but nobody to get really excited about unless one of them starts to consistently exceed expectations. Any potential impact players are at the low levels of the farm system for the most part.
yeah
the three guys you headline all have talent big also questions for me (command with the pitchers, splits for Bourn). Norris’ 14 K game the other night was a great exampel of how tantalizing he can be, and it seems like every time I see Paulino he has three pitches working and I find myself scratching my head as to his struggles. lol
I’m very interested in Martinez based on numbers.
by blackoutyears on Aug 19, 2010 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions
As a hitter I can see Francoeur as a comp
Though Francoeur isn’t great in terms of BABIP, so Johnson would likely be a little higher in terms of average and OBP. Combine that with passable defense at 3B and you’d have a solid player that’d be around league average.
Clemens
What letter grade would you give Clemens? I’m surprised at how little attention he gets despite very good power and the bloodlines. I don’t think he will be a star, but is .250 with 20-25 HR unreasonable?
by mattp31 on Aug 19, 2010 3:56 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
He's got to improve a ton to hit for that average in the bigs
He just strikes out way too much to be taken too seriously at this point. Over 27% of his PA are ending in Ks against AA pitching. Throw in the fact that he appears to be locked in at 1B and there isn’t a whole lot of value there. There’s an outside chance he could turn into something useful, but I can’t see anything more than a C+ grade at this point, and I’m not sure he’d even get that if he had a different last name.
He's another high-BABIP hitter
Per Minor League Splits, his line drive rate this season is 23.7% and adjusting for park/luck pushes his BABIP to .376 and batting average to .293. Last season at Lancaster he hit .340 despite striking out nearly as much; obviously, a lot of that due to that crazy ballpark, but not all of it. .250 or .260 seems like a reasonable ceiling, although he’ll more likely sit somewhere in the .230-.240 range.
Now that the Astros have Wallace, I wonder whether Clemens will get a chance to show anything at the ML level though.
Is Tyler Flowers still considered a grade B- prospect? Baseball America called him the 60th best prospect in baseball entering the season, and he profiles similarly. (Yes, he’s a catcher, but from what I’ve heard I doubt he’s much better of one than Clemens was.) Obviously Flowers has had a terrible year and is no longer a top 100 guy, but if he’s still in the B- range, I’d think Clemens would be too.
Flowers would probably be a borderline B-
He might actually still be able to play C though, and he’s nowhere near as bad at it as Clemens was (50 PB in 147 games at high A). He is throwing out a decent percentage of runners (28%) and he’s only allowed 7 PB in 85 games.
On top of that, he was probably the better player in AA as well. He struck out at a lower rate and walked at a much higher rate. The power was fairly comparable once leagues are taken into account.
Honestly, I think Flowers makes the case as to why Clemens in only a C+. Flowers is looking more like he can play at least some C in the bigs, while Clemens is locked in at 1B. If you told me Flowers was locked in at 1B, he’d probably only be a C+. On top of that, Flowers was more impressive at the same level at the same age. I’m not sure there is any case for Clemens to be ahead of Flowers.
Fair enough
If you think Tyler Flowers is a C+ as a first baseman I guess I can see that. Was just checking that you were being consistent. Where the cutoff for the grade goes seems pretty arbitrary. I would rate both of them as B- prospects even at first base, personally.
C+/B-
The batting average is going to be an issue probably, but the power is real. I’m not a huge fan, so I’d probably lean toward a C+, but a B- would be reasonable I think. I don’t think he is a top 200 prospect, but he probably isn’t too far outside it.
by auclairkeithbc on Aug 19, 2010 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Johnson
I think you are right, he is a Mark Reynolds type and the K will stop him from hitting .300
Any task BIG or small, Do it well or not at all
Pretty poor comp
Chris Johnson has never struck out anywhere near as much of Mark Reynolds and he certainly won’t do so in the future. He also doesn’t have anywhere close to Reynolds’ raw power.
+1
He doesn’t walk nearly as much as him either. Totally different players.
by auclairkeithbc on Aug 20, 2010 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions
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