top 30 royals prospects.
by vic1124 on Aug 19, 2010 12:29 AM EDT
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1.Micheal Montgomery, LHP,AA: He is my #1 one because he has been doing it for more than one year where as a lot of our guys have just came up big this year. Has a combined 2.38 ERA this year.Great stuff. Said to have 3 plus pitches and shows great poise on the mound.
2.Eric Hosmer,1B,AA: With the vision and eye problems behind him he has showed his true potential. He has showed his power potential this year which many have doubted and show a good eye to make a lot of contact but also take a walk. People don't rate him as high because he plays first base but i think defensive value has began to overtake prospect rankings and overrate some. Has potential to be an above average first baseman and IMO at least an average COF if needed. He is only 20 years old in AA. His combined slash line .338/.408.562, 37 doubles, 8 triples(seems like a ton) and 15 home runs. 53 BB's/57 K's. Also has 13 steals and has only been caught once. He is probably my favorite prospect.
3.Wil Myers,C,High-A: This guy is awesome as well. I have even heard people say this guy is the best prospect in baseball which is great to hear. People predicted him to be our first round pick and we got him in the 3rd because of sign-ability. His plate discipline and approach are way advanced for his age. Started in low A and was moved up to High A where he has hit even better. he is hitting a combined .318/.433/.500. 11 home runs and 32 doubles. 73BB's/79 K's. Has hit .370/.476/.500 in Wilmington which kills hitters power. People think he will get to the majors faster if he goes to the outfield but he is still atleast 2 years away so we should keep him behind the plate and see if he can work there. I am confident he can and if not we have a good outfielder with a great bat.
4.John Lamb,LHP,AA: Just turned 20 and got moved up to AA where he has got somewhat roughed up but it has only been 12 innings. has a combined 2.13 ERA in 126 innings. His K/BB is 138/33. Heard he is very aggressive and even being so young he has advanced poise. We got him in the 5th round. He dropped because of a car accident.
5. Mike Moustakas,3B, AAA: Before his promotion he would of been #1. He had arguable the best hitting numbers in all of the minors but his plate discipline, splits, defense and recent struggles with his promotion have dropped him for me. He has tons of potential still. Great power and bat speed. I think his glove can be at least average, he made a couple nice plays in the futures game.Hitting a combined .319/.371/.598 with 26 home runs and 33 doubles. His numbers are pretty low due to his slow start in AAA.
6.Dan Duffy, LHP: Was arguably our best pitching prospect before he left and has done well since he has came back. only 21 years old in AA he has a combined 2.72 ERA in 39 innings with 50 strikeouts since coming back so i just expect him to improve. He is an advanced arm and could very well be the closest to the majors for us. Last year as a 20 year old in high-A he had a 2.98 ERA.
7. Chris Dwyer, LHP,AA: This continues our run of lefty pitchers. He was a 21 year old freshman that we got in the fourth round of the 2009 draft. Was said to always have great stuff but the numbers didn't show it. He has had a great year. Has 2 plus pitches with needed work on his change-up to make it good. Could be a front of the rotation starter but may not need to be with the talent we have. Will probably start in AA next year and if he continues his improvements we could see him in September next year if not earlier.
8. Christian Colon, SS,High-A: I love that in normal years our first round pick would be at least a top 5 prospect but we are so talented that he comes in at #8. I am a big fan of Colon which he seems to have a lot of doubters. I am glad we drafted him because of his consistency and great performance with team USA which he out hit everyone on the team. His senior year he actually showed some power. He is a good leader and hard worker. From what i saw in the College world series his defense looked good. There are a lot of doubt on his defense but he can atleast be an above average second baseman. He started out slow this year hitting .264/.312/.356. I think those numbers will go up greatly next year.
9. Brett Ebiner,CF, Rookie: Was projected as a first round pick. We got him in the second. I have heard very good reviews about this guy and im pretty pumped. Have read he has very good power potential and a pretty good glove in center. Let's hope he can stay there. His senior year at arkansas he hit .333 with 22 home runs. A
10. Aaron Crow, RHP, High-A: I have lost almost all hope but being a Mizzou fan and thinking that there has to be some talent somewhere in him. Got demoted to High A in his first year. He is older which is what makes his struggles so frustrating. He got a lot of praises before the year and has done terrible. His command is said to be really bad. His K's have gone up a little recently. We will see. If he could somehow improve and become a 5th starter that would be great..
11. Tim Mellville,RHP, High-A: Another guy struggling and is now injured.. Was said to be a top 15 talent when we drafted him in the 4th round. I like Melville and think he will for sure turn it around. He had a good year last year and has went into a sophmore slump. I like that he strikes a lot of guys out and has very good stuff. I think he is done for the year and i can't wait to see him next year. If him, Crow and Argulles actually come around then our minors would be pretty much unreal.
12.Tim Collins LHP, AAA: This may be high to some people but i think this guy i the real deal. People wonder why he was traded by 2 teams in one year and i wonder that as well. My guess is that its because he is a reliever. His K numbers are ridiculous and he is 20 years old in AAA already. He may be small but i think he is a stud reliever.
12. Johnny Giavotella 2B,AA: Was a second round pick but came from a small schoool so i think the scouts saw talent in him it is just taking a couple years to develop. He is ripping the cover off the ball as of late. This year he is hitting .321/.395/.444 with 27 doubles and almost as many walks as K's. He has hit for power here recently which i don't expect him to develop much.I don't think he is a future stud but could be a solid second baseman for a feww years.. Hopefully a good average and high OBP kind of guy.
13.Noel Argulles, LHP: Has really nothing to show but has a lot of hype surronding him. It has died down some and there has been negative reports but i think he has a lot of potential. Hopefully he can get on the mound sooner or later.
14.David Lough OF,AAA: He needs to prove something soon. All the talent is there but he needs a better plate discipline. I don't like putting him this high because i see his ceiling being a 4th outfielder so i am skeptical. Hopefully he gets a September call up.
15. Jason Adam, RHP,Suprise,AZ: Baseball america had him ranked as the 54th best prospcet in the draft. Has tons of upside. Fastball can get up to 95 at times and i have heard good things about his curve and change-up. I am excited about him can't wait to see him at Burlington next year.
16. Louis Coleman RHP, AAA: Has had good numbers so far and is just about ready to jump into our major league bullpen. I think he has taken the reliever role on well. Hopefully we can catch a glimpse of him in September.
17. Derrick Robinson,CF,AA: Lots of speed here. His average is ok but he strikeout quite a bit. Not much power at all. He is a project. He is 22 right now so i think he still has a lot of refining to do but could be a late blooming type player. has 44 stolen bases this year.
18. Tyler Sample, RHP,Low-A: Has great size and arm strength. Still in low A and not doing as well as some would hope but he has very good stuff. I think his real future will be as a good reliever but he is putting together a nice year and we will see if he improves
19.Salvador Perez, C, High-A: Started the year extremely hot but has cooled off a lot. He is only 20 and i have heard a lot of good things about his defense. Not hitting at all right now.
20. Cheslor Cuthbert,3B,Rookie: Only 17 years old he is in rookie ball. He started out ok but isn't hitting all that great. From what i have heard is that be looks to fit in prefectly even though he is younger than everyone and has tons and tons of potential. glad we can develop him from such a young age. Can't wait to see how advanced he will be in a couple years when we will still be very very young.
21.Buddy Baumen, LHP,High-A: He is having a very good year. Has a 2.35 ERA in 84 innings with 101 strikeouts and has only gave up 1 home run. Only 21 years old.
22.Will Smith, RHP,High-A: He just turned 21 and has good potential. I think be thrown around every level of the minors has hurt him so we are putting him in Wilmington and kind of starting his development from square one. I think he will impress people.
23.Blaine Hardy, LHP,AAA: This guy is barely talked about as royals fans. He is 23 and has a combined 1.76 ERA this year and opponents are only hitting .193 against him. I am sure there are reasons he isn't highly touted but he will get his shot. His numbers last year were really good as well.
24. Tim Smith, OF,AA: This guy has been consistently good. every year so far he has hit the ball well. He is a guy that i don't know a lot about and based off his numbers it seems crazy to put him this low. He is 24 though and im not sure why he is just now in AA. I have heard he has a week arm. surprised he is still in AA. Could probably be higher.
25. Jeff Bianchi, SS, injured: This guy could possibly be our starting shortstop if he didn't get injured, i am excited to see him come back.
26.Paulo Orlando, OF,AA: He is looking to become the first Brazilian player in the MLB, correct me if i am wrong. Hasn't had that great of numbers in the past but has done really well this year and people are thinking it is just taking him a little longer to develop.
27, Micheal Antonio, SS, Rookie. We will have to see. Not hitting very well but shows good slugging. This is purely potential.
28.Clint Robinson,1B,AA: He is old but he is completely smashing. He could become Kila 2.0 we shall see.
29.Elisaul Pimentel, RHP,Low-A: Heard he has nasty stuff but needs better control. Lots of potential.
30.Edgar Osuna,LHP, AAA. He had a great year in AA with an ERA under 3. has gotten roughed up in AAA but i think he is pretty underrated. Doesn't throw very hard but has great command. could be a good long reliever.
Just Missed:Yowill Espinal(2B), Kevin Champman(RP), Jordan Parraz(OF), Manny Pina(C), Kelvin Herra(RHP) Crawford Simmons(LHP)
This system is great, lots of depth and plenty of star power. Tell me what you think.
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Nice job Man!
Gonna have to disagree with Moustakas though. Can a young dude get a few weeks to adjust to a new league already? C’mon now. For a 21 year old, he hasn’t struggled at all
If you pro-rated his first 33 game’s numbers at Omaha to a full-season that is not a bad season for one of the younger dudes in the league.
And regarding the splits, id say the fact that he continues to bash righthanders is more important than 55 abs vs the oldest and craftiest lefties he’s ever faced. I don’t think it is fair at all to downgrade him at all for his AAA stint thus far- Id say its a positive for me.
I’d take him first among Royals prospects myself, but thats just me maybe. I think Royals fans may, possibly have a small case of the proverbial Shiny New Toy Syndrome with Mous’. He’s been around a while and guys like Hos, Lamb, and Montgomery have busted out recantly. Not saying you are but, maybe?
Rip Fredrick0220, cwhitman412, Mets2k9- mis you guys
This
Moustakas is #1 in the system for me, but I’m admittedly really really high on him.
Rest of the list I really like, although Eibner ahead of Crow and Melville seems like a bit of a stretch to me. Regarded as a better pitcher, but wanted to hit, so teams gave him the opportunity, he could have been a first round guy, but I don’t know if I’d put him ahead of some of the other guys.
Overall very good list, and any list with writeups, and explanations to picks, like you have provided here are great.
Thanks i appreciate it.
I like Eibner as a hitter. His pitching stats to me weren’t that impressive, i just think he could throw hard.
I have heard he is a really good fielder with a strong arm which would be great for us because we need a centerfielder. Also he looks like a very slender guy yet still has above average power potential which i think will just get better once he fills out. Like Moose his plate discipline is a problem.
I am so disappointed in both Crow and Melville. Especially Crow. I just wonder what is wrong with him.
I think as Royals fans we are scared of players who lack plate discipline.
That is what i’m truly worried about with Moose. He is having a hard time with taking a walk. He may be a .300/.330/.500+ type guy which might not be bad with big slugging but idk. Also should we over hype him for half a good year just as much as we should give him a break in AAA? I think i got so excited about him that i actually turned into a pessimist so i wouldn’t get let down.
I just think Hosmer and Myers are more complete hitters at a younger age.
I think Monty is #1 because he has done it for multiply years now.
There isn't enough to make the conclusion that he would have that little discipline
He was between 7-9% of his PA, which isn’t a great rate, but its a fair one. Sure, if he doesn’t improve, then it will go down as he moves up levels, but he is young, and was improving in that department at every level barring AAA now. I think .290/.350/500 is closer. Its not a huge difference, but its noticeable in terms of process.
Definitely though, there are reasons to be down on him because of his AAA performance, even though the power and contact ability has been there.
Sure
but it is also 33 ballgames in which he’s done some positive things – 6 bombs, 8 doubles and has struck out less than he did in AAA. That coulb be a big thing right there – If your boses told you to strike out less, you might not walk much right?
Personally, I don’t care about walks. I know its imoportant to work the count and recognize pitches and everybody could be more selective but, the list of good/ great major leaguers who dont walk much is SO long. So Mous will be the 3b version of Robinson Cano . . . great!
Rip Fredrick0220, cwhitman412, Mets2k9- mis you guys
I'm not criticizing him. I will take a 7-9% rate from him
that was to the comment that he may only be able to put up a .300/.330 BA/OBP which I felt was a very low OBP.
I love the kid, and I think he’ll have the discipline, but, to be fair. If we look at great, modern (The early-mid 1900s aren’t comparable) major league players they have either ridiculous defensive value (which some people think he wont have much at all, and I don’t believe that, but he wont be great in this regard) are legitimate freaks, or have good discipline.
Pitchers work out of the zone more against aggressive as it has gotten smaller, and this not only ends up hurting their BB numbers, but also their power as they will swing at more bad pitches, and they are getting pounded with bad pitches.
For the Record-
Moustakas never had a slg% within 30 points of .500 untill he played at NW Arkansas, in a park where he had an OPS over .600 points higher at home. He was a bit unlucky on the road in looking at BABIP, but he was more than a bit lucky at home, in a park with a 126 LHB HR rating.
I like Moustakas a lot, but just don’t think it’s realistic to look at his 300 PA @ NWA and start projecting superstardom. He’s young and will be in the bigs for sure, but I think the people trying to rank him #1 in this stacked system aren’t looking into the numbers enough.
by Burlin White on Aug 21, 2010 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Exactly.
I want Moustakas to be great. I really do but people are looking at his half a year in AA and ignoring the other 2 and a half.
Hopefully like i said that this would be his junior year in college and that is when most athletes turn the corner.
+1
It has become passe to dog on Moustakas, but no way is he the 5th best prospect in this system. He absolutely demolished AA this year, and for the most part has done very well in AAA considering his age.
His two main weak spots in AAA so far are hitting lefties (.370 OPS vs .930 against RHPs) and taking walks (only 4 in 139 AB). The low walk total is most concerning, but I think that mainly comes from being a bit overmatched for AAA at this point. I expect he will continue to improve his plate discipline as he gets more comfortable.
Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club
I love that we can have this argument. It shows how good the system is.
I think our top 5 is interchangeable.
What about Moose’s OBP the last 2 years and his OBP this year is only .50 points higher than his AVG and that is with a lot of intentional walks. This is a very big concern for me because it will just get way harder once he reaches the MLB.
I love his power and his contact but i just have my concerns. I think his glove will be fine at 3rd and i love his arm. His showing in the futures game at 3rd was great.
His age still gives me hope because if he was in college he would be ending his junior year and that is when a lot of athletes turn the corner so maybe he has turned it. I just need to see a better approach at the plate for my liking.
Why would you put him above Montgomery?
Monty has been doing it for two seasons and really Moustakas has just busted out recently. Besides power his last 2 seasons weren’t all that great.
Moustakas was really high regarded two years ago.
His status fell, in my opinion undeservedly, very far last year. Moustakas hasn’t always had the ridiculous stats (until this year), but was always considered a tool box that, if he put it together, could be special. I consider him less recent than Montgomery.
Nice read.
I think Mellville was and always has been overrated. That said, I really like the three lefties…the first 9 players on that list are some of my favorite in the minors.
Chris Dwyer strikes me as the guy who could be the best of them all…he’s got some Jon Lester in him, but there’s alot of nice armed lefties out there now who’ll get that Lester/Anderson/other young power lefties comparison.
My favorite part about this list is the "just missed" guys.
Those guys aren’t slouches.
Yowill Espinal is only 19 and has a high avg/obp just no power.
Chapman was a 4th round selection this year and will be in KC’s bullpen soon.
I would probably switch Parraz with Tim Smith.
Also Crawford Simmons is a very interesting arm. He probably deserves a spot. maybe switch him with pimentel
Kelvin Herrera is only 20. I think he got hurt this year. He is having an average year but his last 2 he didnt have an ERA over 1.56. That is impressive.
There are even more guys i could name who are having good years or have potential but i will stop lol.
My thoughts
I like the players in your top ten, and I expect those will be the players in almost everyone’s list, although in a slightly different order (I like Moustakas and Dwyer more, and Crow would be ahead of Eibner).
I can’t see having Arguelles that high considering he has yet to throw a professional pitch and is now rumored to have shoulder surgery. Also Melville is no longer injured, I think he’s back with Wilmington.
I think Crawford Simmons deserves a spot on your list, most likely in the 15-25 range. He’s had a great year and the early scouting reports have been very positive. Could be the next big southpaw prospect for the Royals.
Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club
Thanks for your thoughts.
I hate Crow right now..The talent has to be there somewhere and it is encouraging that people still like him as a prospect but for now he gets rated low by me until he proves me wrong. Being a Mizzou fan it sucks seeing Crow doing so bad. Only good thing is that his K numbers are going up.
Argulles is tough to rank. I have heard all the hype, then he gets injured and i hear negative things about him. I wasn’t really sure where to put him and im still not but i put him high.
I have been checking the box scores and i havent seen Melville recently.
I agree i should of put Crawford Simmons in the top 30 for sure.
The only question I'm struggling with is "Will it ACTUALLY work in Kansas City? Can they not screw this up?"
by Kenneth Arthur on Aug 19, 2010 11:35 AM EDT reply actions
At some level, prospect attrition is to be expected
But people will probably blame Dayton Moore if every one of these guys doesn’t become a star.
then again
he’s kinda putting all the eggs in this basket, so it has to work out or he’s gone.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
This got me interested in who the Rays top prospects were pre-2008 as a reminder.
Evan Longoria, David Price, Wade Davis, Desmond Jennings, Reid Brignac, Jake McGee, Eduardo Morlan, Jeff Niemann, Jeremy Hellickson, Fernando Perez, Ryan Royster, Nick Barnese, John Jaso, Chris Mason, Mitch Talbot.
Well, Moustakas will be 22 next year, same age Longoria was in 2008.
Isn’t it interesting that Davis/Hellickson/Jaso haven’t made an impact until this year. And the 2008 Rays had a lot more pieces than the 2011 Royals will it seems. I wonder how far away this team could be? Maybe 2013?
by Kenneth Arthur on Aug 19, 2010 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Well let's look at it
Montgomery could be up in the 2nd half of next year but probably to start 2012 is more likely. Duffy is on a similar timetable I’d think, maybe a bit ahead because of his age. Lamb and Dwyer could be ready by the 2nd half of 2012 if not the start of that year. Crow is a question mark, he could move fast if he is hot next year. Coleman and Collins should be in the pen next year. Sample could be in the pen by 2012 if they switched him to relief, though I’d keep him as a starter for now. Guys like Melville, Baumen, and Smith are probably three years off if they keep them as starters.
Moustakas could be the starter at 3B next spring but I think he’d benefit from at least a couple of months(or half a year maybe) in AAA before hitting the bigs. Hosmer could be ready to start 2012. Myers could be ready by 2012 if they moved him to RF. If they want to keep him behind the plate or transition him to another position(like 3B or CF) it’s probably 2013 at the earliest. Lough and Parraz could see time next year with Robinson ready at some point in 2012. Giovatella could be up midseason next year, Colon probably mid-2012.
I’d say 2011 is pretty much out as a year to contend, though they could come close to .500 probably. I think 2012 is a year they could surprise and contend for the AL Central title, and would probably be needed to keep Greinke long term if he hasn’t been dealt by that point. Your guess of 2013 is probably a good estimate, though depending on how quickly guys get promoted and things like sophomore slumps and what not, I could see it being anywhere from 2012-2014 before they are contending for the playoffs.
http://bullpenbanter.com
Good analysis
I think 2011 will be a lost cause for KC, but a window from 2013-18 or so could be there for the franchise to take off.
KC is lucky because not only do they have a great system, but it looks like the top prospects will all graduate to the majors in a one-two year time period, providing an optimum environment to compete. I believe Colon and Eibner were taken in this year’s draft to go along with this philosophy, as both could be MLB contributors by 2013.
The most interesting decisions in my opinion will be:
1. Greinke – he is signed through 2012. Do you try to extend him or trade him?
2. Gordon and Butler – both signed through 2013. Do you extend either of them now, or use them up and let them walk once the new kids come up?
3. Myers – the bat is showing it is elite. While his defense at catcher has reportedly improved, how patient should you be? Is it worth keeping him in the minors until 2013 to focus on defense at catcher? Could staying at catcher have a negative effect on his long-term batting prospects? (yes I know Mauer does fine but he’s the exception)
I want to keep Greinke but i say we trade Greinke.
He isn’t happy with the organization right now and we could get a pretty nice haul.Think about adding 3-5 guys to that already impressive list? Most likely 2 would be in our top 10. That would be pretty awesome.
I want Butler and Gordon to be the veteran leadership for these prospects coming up. I would really like Greinke to mentor, Monty,Lamb and others but he will command a lot of money.
3-5 guys
To be blunt, this isn’t fantasy baseball, most organizations don’t have three to five guys that equal Greinke (or that would make KC fans happy) and if they have an elite guy he likely has more surplus value than Greinke anyway.
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They could get something like...
Desomond Jennings, Matt Moore, and Nick Barnese from Tampa or something like Aroldis Chapman, Yonder Alonso, Todd Frazier, and another low level guy from Cincinatti(they probably won’t get involved).
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
Wow, that seems rich
I can’t see Tampa giving up six years of Jennings for two years of Greinke, much less Jennings AND Matt Moore and Barnese. That’s potentially twelve years of cost-controlled all-star-level production (Jennings and Moore) for two years of Greinke.
agree to disagree
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No one gives up packages like that anymore.
Far too damaging long term to your org. the way rosters, salaries and team control of a player are structured these days.
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Not saying they will...
saying that is what it will take to get him. Niether of those teams are likely to enter the race for him, but if a team wants him they will have to give up a HUGE package for him because he is a pretty young “ace”.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
To be "blunt" you didn't really make sense.
So most organizations can’t trade for Greinke and if an organization does have good prospects they are more value than Greinke? So we just won’t be able to trade him?
He need to get an A prospect, a B prospect and probably 2 C+ prospects for Greinke.
RE
Interestingly, everyone else understood me perfectly…
So most organizations can’t trade for Greinke.
If you assume, as the original poster did, that such a deal would require 3-5 prospects that would make their list more impressive than it already is, yes. Most teams wouldn’t have that.
if an organization does have good prospects they are more value than Greinke?
If a team could meet that steep requirement, which few, if any, could yes those prospects would likely be more valuable than Zach Grienke. Greinke has two years left on his deal at $27M, at a surplus value of roughly $20m (thats good). But the 18-30 years of service time the Royals would get back is worth much more than that.
So we just won’t be able to trade him?
No, you could. But the initial assumption that they would need 3-5 prospects that make their prospect list more impressive would be to change.
He need to get an A prospect, a B prospect and probably 2 C+ prospects for Greinke
Now, that is your assumption. First, I’m not sure we’ll ever see a straight A prospect traded again, and if we do it’ll be a very rare. Jason Heyward, a straight A prospect, has a surplus value over $100m. A B prospect would likely be in the $40m range. Add Greinke’s value to the team today and to winning today, I’d say a B+ and a C+ prospect would be all they would get for two years.
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Obviously no one is trading...
the top prospect in the game. Someone like Ackley who is regarded as top 5 by most people seems like someone that it will hurt to give up, but it is not entirely impossible that they trade him.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
RE
His assumption was an A prospect, not mine.
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Ackley would be a good example.
He is the Mariners top prospect, i could see them trading him and maybe another one of their top 10 prospects for Greinke with one more guy thrown in.
I would also use the Smoak and Montero examples.
Hell im sure Dayton Moore would trade Moose, Duffy, and somebody else for Greinke.
Also Jason Heyward in the definition of a untouchable prospect. There aren’t many like Heyward.
I also understand what you mean by surplus value or whatever but the point of trading prospects is you don’t know if they will be good and you are acting like they will for sure be good where as Greinke has won a cy young. Had a good year before that. Is still relatively young so you skip the developmental prospect. I am sure the team that trades for him will be one that is confident they can resign him.
It isn’t uncommon for teams to overpay for proven players.
I guess it depends on your definition of "A" prospect
First, I’m not sure we’ll ever see a straight A prospect traded again, and if we do it’ll be a very rare.
Do you not consider Montero an A prospect? NY was rumored to dangle him for both Lee and Soria this offseason.
Smoak was an A-caliber prospect in my eyes when he was traded for Lee.
I get your point that teams are more reluctant to trade top prospects now, but I think there will always be an opportunity when a team sees an opportunity to win big now.
RE
Not straight As as per my last ranking, but your point is noted. As I said, it would be rare. I think most would agree that Smoak trade was as rare as it was unexpected.
And, of course, Montero was never actually moved.
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FWIW
John has Smoak as an A-
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He has Alvarez...
as an A and I am sure a team would consider trading him and others for a guy like Greinke(not the Pirates obviously).
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
Just in comparison to Tampa, I'd say the Rays pitching in 2008 was superior to anything the Royals could do next year even with Grienke.
Hochevar could have a Niemann-like production breakout perhaps. But nobody like Matt Garza I see being a #3 next year. Not sure if they have the defense either that a Bartlett gave the Rays. Maybe they do, Im just not sure about the defensive ratings of those Royals.
And accounting for some rookie and sophomore stumbles, they could definitely be good by 2013, maybe lightning in a bottle before then, who knows.
by Kenneth Arthur on Aug 19, 2010 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed
I wasn’t trying to compare them to the Rays, just trying to see how close your guess of 2013 was. Looking at the Rays though, did they look like they’d accomplish what they did in 2008 at this same point in 2007? The Rays certainly had a stronger core in place already with Pena/Crawford/Upton/Shields/Kazmir/bullpen. They got league average production out of Sonnanstine and Jackson that year as the 4th and 5th starters which KC likely can’t match next year.
So as of right now, yeah there isn’t much chance KC makes that leap in 2011. A Greinke trade could change things a bit but my guess is still 2-4 years off from KC making a big time jump.
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Yeah and I know you weren't making that comparison.
True, certain players stepped up in 2008 that you didn’t expect. Who knew that the Garza/Bartlett thing would work out so good so soon. And the Royals have the prospects to perhaps make a minor move, say Danny Duffy for a 4th starter and a ML-ready hitter/defender.
by Kenneth Arthur on Aug 19, 2010 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Mous...
was drafted out of HS while Longoria was drafted out of Cal. Not saying they don’t compare but they both took 2 different paths to get there.
Not to be an a-hole...
but Longoria was drafted out of Long Beach state. Two different schools :) lol
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
Wil Myers
As long as Myers has a shot to be a catcher, and it seems pretty clear that he has a real chance, I can’t see an argument for having Hosmer ahead of him. They both seem to have special bats, and Myers’ fallback defensive positions (3B and RF) both have more value than 1B. Seems like an easy call to me.
by FI2 on Aug 19, 2010 12:32 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Myers
won’t be playing 3B if he switches. He’s the Royals’ starting RF in 2013 (or should be).
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Aug 19, 2010 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd argue he's their starting C in 2013
But I mentioned 3B because Myers is capable of playing there, and that’s part of the reason why I value him above Hosmer. The fact that they have other 3B prospects doesn’t change that.
Or...
Myers is the starting 3B in 2013, with Moustakas in RF. If Myers can’t stick at C and with some question of Mous’ ability to stick at third it could happen
"question of Mous' ability to stick at third"
Where is this coming from? I haven’t seen any doubts lately from the usual suspects (BA, BP, Law, etc) on his ability to stick at 3rd. Consensus appears to be that his range will always be so-so, but his 70/80 arm will offset that, resulting in solid average defense at 3rd base. He was also just named the best defensive 3rd baseman in the Texas League.
I don’t think anyone is expecting him to be a perennial Gold Glover, but I don’t think recent scouting reports support the idea that there is a legit question if Moustakas can stick at 3rd.
Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club
have to agree
seen him a few times now, and he’s not bad at all. big guy, yes. bad defender, no way. i will say he will need to work hard to stay in shape, but i have little doubt he’ll do what’s necessary. and the arm is good. i wanted to see him really unleash one, but you don’t need to to see how good the arm is. ball jumps out of the hand.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
His defense last year was an issue
KG even mentioned scouts had brought up the idea of moving him back to Catcher because of it.
Those polls are BS, too, btw. Tyler Flowers was named best defensive catcher in his league last season… and the guy’s defense is a disaster.
Its really his body type and relative lack of athleticism that is the issue. If he gains any weight his questionable mobility is going to really suffer by the time he’s 25, 26, 27.
As for good arm + limited range = solid average defense… nah, range is FAR more important than arm at the MLB level. He has a fantastic arm, but many MLB 3B do… range is what makes the major difference. I do think Moose will most likely be fine at 3B, but he’s probably not going to be a plus defender over there… and I think its at least possible Myers could be. Ultimately, I would still put my money as Moose the 3B and Myers the C in 2012/13/whatever.
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Last year is not this year
and this year, by all accounts, his defense has meaningfully improved to where there are no longer discussions about him moving off 3rd. That’s great that one random scout last year told KG he could possibly move to catcher, but that’s more fantasy talk then real life. Feel free to post recent links to help prove your point, but reports from within KC circles have all said his defense has drawn much better reviews. Also it’s a bit silly to say the best tools awards are BS across the board simply because Tyler Flowers won an award one time.
Bottom line is that it seems as though you’re arguing he won’t be a plus defender at 3rd when I never said he would be in the 1st place. He will be solid average at 3rd, so-so range, plus to plus-plus arm, and will stick at the position – exactly what I said in the post you replied to. Moving him to OF and moving Myers to 3rd base, a position he’s never played, would make no sense at all and would only happen at this point in a video game.
Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club
What the hell are you talking about?
I’m not arguing against anything of the sort. His defense has improved this year from what I’ve heard and I said nothing to the contrary. I’m not trying to prove any kind of point here. I’m adding on to the discussion, not arguing with you. I said:
I would still put my money as Moose the 3B and Myers the C in 2012/13/whatever.
My only point here was that – comparing him to Myers – Myers gets another edge since Moose isn’t anything special at 3B.
Moving him to OF and moving Myers to 3rd base, a position he’s never played, would make no sense at all and would only happen at this point in a video game.
I was not suggesting this. That was two different people above, not me. I’m talking in terms of comparing them as prospects.
However, although I didn’t discuss this above, I will admit I don’t think any of this is as preposterous as you’re making it seem. If he does put on some weight with that body and his limited mobility it is far from out of the question he ends up somewhere other than 3B.
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+1
Hell, I think he could be a better 3B than Moustakas.
I really don’t see a rationale for Moose above Myers anymore. I’m not sure I could even understand Hosmer above Myers. How much better can you reasonably expect Hosmer’s bat to be? They both look pretty damn special.
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Agreed
I had Myers 4 spots behind Moustakas on my midseason list, but I’m pretty sure I’ll have Myers ahead of Moose in the offseason. I still have Hosmer behind both, though he’s not too far behind Moose. I don’t see any more upside in Hosmer’s bat than in Myers’, and Myers should provide much more defensive value wherever he ends up.
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I think Hosmer is our safest prospect.
I see him as Billy Butler but with more power and a better glove.
I think he is putting it all together and it our best complete hitter. I think he will do everything very well. Myers is very close. I just like Hosmer more.
Still... unless you think Hosmer's bat beats Myers by *a large margin* I really can't understand ranking them that way
The positional adjustment is just too much, even from 1B to RF, if that’s what it ends up.
Frankly, I like Myers’ bat more… but I understand the case for liking Hosmer’s more. Liking Hosmer’s bat enough more to the extent that he’s a better overall prospect than Myers? I really can’t see that. We’re talking about a kid who is 1B only at age 20 and a very good athlete with a solid chance to stay at catcher. If you think Myers’ bat is 75% of Hosmer’s I think you have to give Myers the edge.
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I will take hosmer
The paths catchers take isn’t the same as other positional players. Also, I would like to see what Myers does in a tougher hitting environment. I don’t have any concerns right now other than the usual ‘how much of a factor is this environment’.
tougher than the park that hes destroying right now?
its one of the toughest in the minors
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Aug 19, 2010 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Is it?
I have heard it kills power. But doesn’t it help average and doubles?
I don't have the most recent numbers
but from 06-08 it was bad across the board offensively.
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2008_minor_league_park_multipliers/
Appropriate to this discussion, Wilmington was the park that killed Moustakas across the board and Hosmer HR wise. Myers has (so far) been the best of them there.
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Hosmer put up huge numbers this year
last year his problems had nothing to do with the park. BTW the park factors were good for BB rates ;)
Yeah
LH//RH
K: 110 / 106
BB: 110 / 116
1B: 97 / 93
2B: 90 / 93
3B: 128 / 145
HR: 83 / 60
LD: 68 / 61
IF: 98 / 96
OF: 114 / 116
GB: 94 / 97
HBP: 117 / 116
wOBA:95 / 93
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Damn.
Even more help for Myers’ case (for the most part)
Also, Myers is 19 years old while both Hosmer and Moustakas were 20 in the Carolina League.
Here w can see the wacky park dimensions (from google maps):
Honestly, I don’t know how I could like Myers anymore at this point. He might be top 3 for me. Youngest guy on his team (Lamb was 19 as well), learning how to play catcher and absolutely destroying not one but two leagues that are difficult to hit in, and now hitting. 379/.483/.545 in 42 games at A+(which is almost as long as he spent in the Midwest League). No real platoon split either (At Wilmington, .364/.488/.606 vs LHP & .384/.481/.527). Looking through his game log I don’t recall and can’t find the last time he had a passed ball or error. His career line across all levels is .327/.431/.536 – and he’s been aggressively promoted (to say the least). That’s from yesterday and doesn’t include today’s 3-3 with a HR and a walk! Now 26 BBs to 25 Ks!
P.S. Why in the world would you make a park shaped like that…??? Do the fans of Wilmington hate HRs from RHHs? Why would you make it jut out like that in the LCF power alley?
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wouldnt the LF line be the shortest? so why so few
RH homers? Maybe they typically hit it into the power alley? That diagram seems to favour a dead-pull RH hitter.
Nope
325 down both lines, 400 to dead center
There’s a pic from the OF on the link that won’t fit the SBNation setup
Usually I agree but Arcia could probably hit a bounced pitch out of the park right now. -KBR
So even though it's 325 down the LF line
Because of the angle it’s more like 340.
I live in Wilmington...
and have been to many Blue Rocks games myself. I don’t really think the park is much harder for righties to hit HRs out of. I have seen HS kids with no chance of getting to the minors hit it out there(that is where all the big games in DE are played). I have even played there myself(though I never could hit it out). I don’t really get why people act like it is one of the hardest parks to hit it out of.
Side note: If scouts payed attention to Delaware more they would have found a true sleeper this year for them to draft. In the state championship the pitcher from the winning team was about 6’3’’ and throwing gas from the left side. Easily low 90’s. Below average slider, but serious potential for it. Could have been a HUGE find if DE was scouted more.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
RE
“I don’t really get why people act like it is one of the hardest parks to hit it out of.”
Because, as I just showed, statistically it is.
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From being there...
mutiple times I have seen even HS kids with little power potential hit it out. Who knows? Maybe they got lucky. but still I have seen plenty.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
of home runs...
I could probably even hit the wall on it and I am a terrible hitter. Not going to say it is the easiest park to hit homers in, but it doesn’t seem like the worst.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
The park factors are derived from what has actually happened, though.
RHH in fact have hit far less HRs at Wilmington that they do at other Carolina League Parks.
Not just this year, either.
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When you say actually happened...
are you talking about me seeing HS kids hit it out of there? It has happened. Almost all of the big HS games are there and every player from Delaware sucks. lol
Not arguing with you about it. It just doesn’t seem like a hard park to hit out of. I have been to others and Blue Rocks stadium doesn’t seem any worse to me.
It actaully is shaped like PNC park in LF so i can see the left center area being hard to hit out of.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
StatCorner has MiLB park factors
Wilmington is an absolutely awful park for hitting HR.
100 is considered neutral, and they have Wilmington at 83 for RHB and 60 (!) for LHB.
Even if those numbers are a tad exaggerated, Wilmington is still quite clearly a pitcher’s park and a very difficult HR park.
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by Satchel Price on Aug 21, 2010 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions
those park factors
Are they from last year, last 3 years weighted average, any idea how they calculate?
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faily certain its one year
I could ask if you’d like
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are they based solely on opposing teams?
or do they include home hitting stats as well?
Some Context for ya
In High A, Runs PER 600 PA
Myers: 87.3
Hosmer: 58.5
Moustakas (09): 5.1
BAM.. :)
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Enjoy
http://www.statcorner.com/team.php?team=WIL&year=2010&leag=CAR
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You guys are actually convincing me of Myers
but Hosmer is still my personal preference, Myers may be overtaking him soon. Plus Myers is starting to get a power stoke recently which is good to see.
Probably overkill mentioning this again... but Myers' has had the power stroke all year.
Right now (and even more so in the Midwest League) he is in conditions (parks and leagues) that inhibit power. He’s still SLG .500 at home in that park – which looks like it was deliberately constructed to test RHH’s power. Its really frightening to think what he could do once he reaches AA/Texas League – even though he’ll be reaching it a year younger than either of the other guys.
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I kinda just meant home run wise in Wilmington.
He had 10 already before he got there. I was never worried about it, i just hate the Wilmington park lol
From a fantasy perspective it depends upon your league
I’ve built a team to compete this year and next. Myers is a wonderful prospect but of no value in that time frame. Hosmer should be up some time next year and I would guess in June. So from my perspective, Hosmer is more valuable (and I have him at $2 in a $260 league).
One other thing to consider: This season is essentially Hosmer’s first without the eye and wrist issues; while Myers is a year younger, he’s playing his second year.
They’re both fantastic prospects. Myers will be high on my list for our auction next year — because of our keeper rules it makes little sense to acquire a player in 2010 who won’t likely start until 2013. I am tempted, though, to get Myers on the cheap at $1 at the end of our auction rather than a second catcher (I already have Matt Weiters).
Guys
This is not the Astros or Cardinal system we’re talking about. 1 through 6, all these guys could reasonable be ranked # 1 depending on rational criteria. I believe they are all A or A- prospects. What I consider to be more important is that the system is HEAVY and deep. I mean, they could easily graduate 5-10 guys in the next 2-3 years and still have a decent system. I think that’s extraordinary.
Wow, this system is even more stacked than I thought
What a great year this system has had, so many guys playing really well.
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How long did thistake you?
Just wondering. Have been working on a top 50 Pirates prospects list and I am wondering how long doing the rankings and adding the write ups about each prospect took.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
It took all day off and on. I did a lot of things in between.
The top 10 was a breeze. Their write ups were a little longer. 11-30 was what took long. I was very indecisive. I would do a couple prospects and then watch tv or look at other stuff on here. Then do a couple more and go eat dinner, then do a couple more and so on.
I wish i would of put more stats on some of the lower guys to give you guys a better feel. Also there are probably a few guys i would switch around but overall i am happy with the list.
I kind of want to do a final draft but this is enough.
There are still about 10 more interesting prospects after our top 30. it’s crazy.
Hopefully we are able to sign the tight veterans to go along with these guys.
Best system in baseball.
For all the awfulness that Dayton Moore has provided at the MLB level, he’s proven to be awfully adept at recognizing and acquiring high-quality prospects.
I’m really intrigued by this team’s future.
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I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
I'm intrigued, all the while, skeptical.
As a prospect lover and a fan of a non-divisional opponent, I hope for good things from the Royals.
I only think back to other teams who all of a sudden had amazing farms.
2006 Diamondbacks:
Justin Upton, Stephen Drew, Conor Jackson, Carlos Quentin, Chris Young, Carlos Gonzalez, Dustin Nippert were all in BA’s top 67.
2005 Angels:
Casey Kotchman, Dallas McPherson, Erick Aybar, Jeff Mathis, Kendry Morales, Brandon Wood.
2006 Dodgers were #2 system by BA for 3 years in a row:
Billingsley, LaRoche, Joel Guzman, Russell Martin, Scott Elbert, Broxton, Dewitt, Ethier, Kemp.
I’d say things worked out for the Dodgers though. Playoff success.
Those other examples – Aybar, Morales worked out pretty well. Diamondbacks – some good players but not translating into wins.
I only bring these things up to temper my own expectations of the Royals.
by Kenneth Arthur on Aug 19, 2010 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Arizona still confuses me
They looked absolutely stacked – I was sure they had a bright future. Also throw in Max Scherzer and a healthy Brandon Webb.
Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club
Agreed, and if Moore is still around
Can we really count on him at the MLB level?
I really have no idea
He did make a really nice move in trading Ankiel/Farnsworth for Blanco, Chavez and Collins, though.
Blanco and Chavez could be useful role players on the bench and in the bullpen, respectively, while Collins should be a very good reliever with a chance to become a closer-type.
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by Satchel Price on Aug 20, 2010 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions
no idea either
but equally disturbing as his trading has been his willingness to field an atrocious D out there. It makes Greinke’s season last year look even more amazing. Betancourt at SS, Guillen in the OF, etc.
Weighing in on the Royals farm system as a long time fan
Agreed that the top 4-6 players could easily be the #1 prospect in other systems. If it is possible for a LH pitcher like Duffy to be a sleeper, he is the one guy who keeps rolling along and wins. Montgomery, Lamb and Crow have had their hiccups this year but the talent is there. Once Duffy returned from his “sabbatical” he has been terrific.
Why would KC move Myers to 3B and Moustakas to RF? Moose has been invested at 3B for his career and Myers has the skill set to be an outstanding RF – good arm, runs well, power bat for corner OF.
Can’t figure out what to do with Arguelles – have read that he is basically stealing money from KC with his 2010 season. The raw talent is there but character?
I like Chapman and Simmons as top 20 players. No way Osuna ranks above them as a LH prospect. Was pleased to see Collins ranked so high. I think he will be terrific – he has a strong mix and a true put away pitch for Ks. A great return for Ankiel and Farnsworth.
Has there been any word on Bianchi’s rehab? I wonder if his injury will be Aviles’ regarding recovery time and gaining arm strength. If Colon is the KC SS in 2012, Bianchi could have a role as a utility middle infielder at 2B/SS. He probably projects best at 2B but I really like Giavotella.
fun list
I’d probably have it as Giavotella, Colon, Crow to round out the top 10, though. There are some caveats to Giavotella . . .he’s small and his arm isn’t all that strong, so he’s probably restricted to playing second in the majors, and he’s really not a big power guy. That being said, I REALLY like him. He’s got a quick stroke with enough loft to produce line drives, and he’ll be a good glove guy. I don’t think Colon is quite as gifted as an all-around hitter and I remain a bit iffy about what he’ll do at shortstop.
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