Allen Craig vs. Mitch Moreland
by StickRat on Aug 18, 2010 6:39 PM EDT
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PrintTwo intriguing call-ups in 2010 are Craig and Moreland. What interests me most about them is they each have the potential to be better-than-average, if not exceptional, big-league starters. However, they are also each in the position of having to prove they belong in the bigs to the point where neither is guaranteed of a roster spot past this season.
Craig is a fifth-year pro, drafted by the Cards in the eighth round in 2006. A collegiate shortstop at Cal, he was converted to third base where he hit a wall over recent years in the upper minors. He has since played exclusively at first base and corner outfield, with the exception of two recent big-league appearances at the hot corner which evidently convinced Tony LaRussa that Craig is not a viable option there. At the plate, he is somewhat comparable to Xavier Nady for his athletic frame and raw power.
Moreland is a fourth-year pro, drafted by the Rangers in the 17th round in 2007. He was a two-way player at Mississippi State, and was projected by many pro scouts as a future pitcher. The Rangers signed him as a first baseman, though. With the Rangers prospect depth at first base, they converted Moreland to the corner outfield where he has been useable. He has played both first base and right field since his recent big-league call up. At the plate, he has drawn comparisons to Rafael Palmeiro for his combo of gap power and contact ability.
This is a great smackdown, in my opinion, because of the similarities of these two players. They are both potential middle-of-the-order hitters who could develop legit home run power. In the meantime, they both have balanced gap power, and figure to handle the same positions of first and corner outfield in the future. Perhaps what they most have in common, though, is that each of their clubs have made deadline deals this season -- with the Rangers trading Justin Smoak, and the Cardinals trading Ryan Ludwick -- which has opened the door for them to emerge as big-league regulars.
So, If you could choose one of these players, who would it be?
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I think I prefer Moreland
But Craig really deserves a shot at playing time somewhere, even if it’s not with the Cards.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
As a Cards fan who has seen most of his at bats
He has looked pretty terrible. Most AB’s he has looked overmatched. Obviously it’s only been 56 or so AB’s, so small sample size. But still. I agree that he deserves a shot somewhere as a starter, but I doubt it will be with St. Louis.
by Arlo Brunsberg's Swing on Aug 18, 2010 9:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I think he keeps hitting the ball right at people
His line drive % is 26.7 this year (again, as always, insert small sample size caveat here). He has definitely not been great or anything, but I think there’s a good chance he’s been quite unlucky. BABIP is something like .200 for the year.
Albert Pujols does not have "down" years. He has "~6 WAR" years.
Opinion
I think you are overrating them both. Maybe because you are looking at their stats but you have to remember both played in the PCL and Texas league, the two most hitter friendly leagues in the upper minors .
They are both corner outfielders/first basemen. What that means? They have to be a hell of a hitter to be a “better-than-average, if not exceptional, big-league starters.” No chance I see them being exceptional, for reference CHONE currently projects 26 year old Craig as a 1.2 WAR player throughout a full season and soon to be 25 year old Moreland as a currently below replacement level (that has a lot to do with his projected OF defense, so I could understand thinking slightly higher of him). They both project roughly as average major league hitters right now.
Also, the Cards trading Ludwick trade was way more for Jay and wanting another SP than Craig.
But to answer your question I would probably take Craig.
Moreland fits the mold of a player underrated by scouts who has a chance to rake
People underrated Moreland because he is not an exceptional athlete, is limited to first base or corner outfield and his bat speed wasn’t anything special.
But he has hit well at every level, has a short compact swing, has shown solid to good plate discipline, a lot of gap power and the size (6-2, 230) to turn doubles into homers. In 1,398 minor league at bats he had a slash line of .313/.383/.509 and for every 162 games averaged 50 doubles, 22 homers, 71 BB and 100 K.
From a fantasy perspective, he has a real chance to start in 2011: Smoak is gone, Davis is not likely to get another shot and Cantu is in the last year of a contract and is not likely to be re-signed. Plus the Ranger front office really loves the guy and I believe that was a factor in trading Smoak. The fact he plays half his games in Arlington helps too.
I targeted him in my roto league’s monthly free agent auction in early August but was out-bid by a single dollar — I bid $3, which is all I had left, and a rival bid $4. I later traded for him as part of a larger trade; he was the throw-in but in truth I targeted him as a possible keeper.
He could be a poor man’s Billy Butler. There minor league stats are comparable though of course Butler performed out of high school and has a higher ceiling:
Butler per 162 games: 45 doubles, 30 homers, 83 BB and 120 K with a slash line of .336/.416/.561. Both are about the same size – Butler is 1 inch shorter and 10 pounds heavier at 240 lbs. And Moreland plays in a much better park for power hitters.
Moreland
He had a .857 OPS (739 PA) in the high minors as a 23/24 year old in the two most hitter friendly leagues in the high minors (so that .857 OPS is inflated) and is likely a 1B. How anyone thinks highly of him is kind of weird to be honest.
Seems a lot of us are wierd, then, including John Sickels
A few points to consider:
(1) While he played in hitter-friendly leagues he hit way above average in every league; his OPS topped the league average OPS by . 241, .258, .121 and .080. That last figure, in AAA, was largely the result of a poor April after zipping through high-A and AA the previous season.
(2) He is playing now in a hitter-friendly ballpark, one that tends to boost run production as much as the minor leagues in which he played. If he were to play in Seattle or Oakland I would be less enthusiastic.
(3) You cite his age as if that were a negative but he has moved up faster than many college players, going through five levels and making the majors after just 361 games. Of course he doesn’t have the upside as a high schooler who moves as quickly and with similar production. But nor are his stats the product of repeating levels and going through the system slowly.
(4) He played more games in RF than he did at 1B in the minors and has a good arm though he is likely just an average corner fielder. In real baseball, that limits his defensive value, but most fantasy leagues, including the two I play, don’t use defensive stats.
(5) In a roto league, Moreland at $4 is a real value in a league that is competitive - I play in a 12 owner-for A.L. only. - and deep: we each have 40 man rosters including a 17-person reserve. Our team budget is $260. of which $160-$170 typically goes to hitters — meaning the average hitter would go for $12, before you factor in inflation from being a keeper league — it’s about 20% inflation — so a league average hitter at auction goes for $15. That average includes backups — 25% of the players that go at auction are backups. Lyle Ovebay, for example, went for $17, Matt Laporta for $22, Willie Bloomquist and Jake Fox for $12 each, Casey Kotchman for $9 and Daric Barton for $5. In that context, if Moreland starts, he is a bargain at $4.
I’m not suggesting the guy in an all-star much less a hall-of-famer. He may be below league average as a hitter at first, though I think he will approach that level. If he does, then at $4, he is a great bargain.
1. Do you really care what a 22/23 year old does in A ball? Really? .121 and .080 aren’t that impressive for above league average, especially for being not young for the league and a player who will be around the -10 run region defensively throughout a season.
2. Don’t care, I’m talking about real life.
3. Uh, it’s still his age. His stats simply aren’t that impressive when you look at them in context.
4. See #2
5. See #2
Right now he is roughly around a league average hitter. That is what I’m saying. If your fantasy league values that thats fine, not trying to say anything more.
1. Not sure why I should ignore his first two professional season just because he hit exceedingly well. I know Sickels took note — those seasons are what landed him in his prospects book. Moreland was a 17th round draft pick and those seasons served notice that he was underrated and a sleeper to watch.
2. If age was all that mattered then we might as well write off nearly every college player since they will rarely if ever be young for their league and they will often be old. Years as a professional is yet another context to consider – in Moreland’s case he’s shown the ability to quickly adapt to each new level.
3. If he’s a league average hitter at age 24 (he turns 25 next month), there is a better chance than not he will peak as an above-average hitter, as player tend to improve until age 28, then plateau, before beginning a gradual decline.
4.You may not care about fantasy baseball, and you may be more sane than the rest of us who do, but many posters do care. And fantasy baseball is in large measure spotting talent before others do; it doesn’t take a genius to snatch up Jason Heyward and it’s a lot more fun to target players others over-look.
He needs to be way better than league average offensively at 1B
An average offensive player that plays first base, even with a good glove, is still not a particularly good player.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Aug 20, 2010 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions
I like both
I think the OP is overrating both, but at the same time they could each turn into above-average corner OF/1B types.
Their power is pretty comparable, so give me the guy with slightly better contact skills – Moreland.
Craig's Ceiling
I’ve been a Craig fan for years, and I’ve always seen him as a poor man’s Casey Blake (albeit with a less impressive glove), but he’s always been able to hit, and his versatility (can play 4 spots without killing you) should give him a long career as a bench/platoon option.
like them both
Each fit the profile of a non-5 tool/7 skill player that aren’t terribly sexy to scouts and prospect mavens unless they have a ton of homers or insane bat speed. A guy like Josh Willingham, say. But they each have the most essential tool/skill, the same one that Willingham had: can hit, and that plays.
I like Moreland better. He progressed nicely through the minors:
.936 in low A/MidW Lg but a bit misleading, as his OPS improved month by month (.983 in July); his .668 in April is really the only splotch, and looks to either be an outlier or an adjustment issue.
-.1018 in high A/Cal Lg
-.918 in AA/Texas
-.855 in AAA/PCL -
-.800 in major leagues.
Basically everywhere he’s gone he hits for a high average, controls the strike zone well, and would seem to have power to develop.
Sickels mentioned in his Texas system round-up that he likes him more than most and I agree. That’s the profile of the type of guy who is often overlooked, but who will hit.
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