2010 Colorado Rockies Top 20 Pre-Season Prospects in Review
by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2010 6:15 PM EDT
Email
Print2010 Colorado Rockies Top 20 Prospects in Review
Here is a review of the 2010 Rockies prospect list, originally published January 15, 2010. THIS IS A REVIEW OF THE OLD LIST AND PRE-SEASON GRADES. THIS IS NOT A NEW LIST. The 2011 list and new grades won't be ready until the season is over and I start writing the book.
1) Christian Friedrich, LHP, Grade B+: 4.96 ERA, 76/35 K/BB in 85 innings for Double-A Tulsa, 97 hits. Not a good year, bothered by a sore elbow early in the season but even after that got better he hasn't been too effective overall, despite some brilliant outings.
2) Tyler Matzek, LHP, Grade B+: 2.75 ERA, 78/51 K/BB in 79 innings for Low-A Asheville, 56 hits. Good K/IP and H/IP ratios, walk rate is too high. Not throwing as hard as he did in high school, but I'm not too worried about that right now since the Ks are there. But the walks worry me a bit.
3) Jhoulys Chacin, RHP, Grade B+: 4.33 ERA, 93/43 K/BB in 87 innings for the Rockies, 75 hits. A pretty solid rookie year.
4) Rex Brothers, LHP, Grade B-: 2.68 ERA with 43/19 K/BB in 37 innings for High-A Modesto, 4.86 ERA with 18/13 K/BB in 17 innings for Tulsa. Command issues have hurt him in Double-A. K/IP and H/IP are strong.
5) Esmil Rogers, RHP, Grade B-: 5.75 ERA, 53/19 K/BB in 61 innings for Triple-A Colorado Springs, 62 hits. 5.01 ERA in 41 major league innings, 35/15 K/BB, 50 hits. Not a great year, but still has a chance to be useful.
6) Juan Nicasio, RHP, Grade B-: 4.10 ERA, 142/28 K/BB in 149 innings for Modesto, 162 hits. Excellent K/BB ratio, good strikeout rate, but has given up a lot of hits. Still intriguing due to the K/BB.
7) Wilin Rosario, C, Grade B-: .285/.342/.552 for Tulsa in 270 at-bats. On the DL with torn ACL, out for at least the rest of the year. This was a strong breakout season with a huge power surge. Too bad he got hurt.
8) Eric Young Jr, UT, Grade B-: .250/.335/.324 with 10 steals in 37 games for Colorado Springs, .273/.373/.341 with seven steals in 16 games for the Rockies. Missed two months with a stress fracture in his leg, but now getting a chance to play regularly.
9) Mike McKenry, C, Grade C+: .275/.337/.427 in 86 games for Colorado Springs. A Blah season considering park/league environment. Has thrown out 31% of runners, error and passed ball rates are low, so the glove is decent.
10) Sam Deduno, RHP, Grade C+: 3.65 ERA with 22/14 K/BB in 25 Triple-A innings, 5.51 ERA with 20/5 K/BB in 16 innings of rehab work at Tri-City in the Northwest League. Missed most of season with stress fracture in elbow, but back in action now.
11) Nolan Arenado, 3B, Grade C+: .276/.311/.462 for Asheville in the Sally League. Has shown doubles power and has a low strikeout rate, but walks are also low.
12) Tim Wheeler, OF, Grade C+: .248/.342/.388 for Modesto, 11 homers, 21 steals, 54 walks, 98 strikeouts in 443 at-bats. He steals bases and has occasional sparks of power, but it is a fairly disappointing season considering where he went in the draft.
13) Hector Gomez, SS, Grade C+ .269/.300/.404 in 27 games between Tri-City and Tulsa, has missed most of the season with a back injury.
14) Charles Blackmon, OF, Grade C+: .291/.360/.469 in 66 games for Tulsa, 15 steals. Texas League sources are impressed with his tools.
15) Chris Balcom-Miller, RHP, Grade C+: 3.09 ERA, 97/18 K/BB in 96 innings, 74 hits for Asheville, 2.08 GO/AO. A very solid season.
16) Parker Frazier, RHP, Grade C: 5.59 ERA with 41/13 K/BB in 48 innings between Tri-City and Modesto, 55 hits. Throws strikes, doesn't dominate, still in the projectable category at age 21.
17) Delta Cleary, OF, Grade C: .248/.289/.324 with 14 steals in 57 games for Asheville. Speed and tools, but still quite raw with the bat, plate discipline remains poor.
18) Chaz Roe, RHP, Grade C: 5.80 ERA with 96/48 K/BB in 135 innings for Colorado Springs, 169 hits. Getting killed at home (6.46 ERA) but road stats aren't much better.
19) Cory Riordan, RHP, Grade C: 3.92 ERA, 115/34 K/BB in 135 innings for Tulsa, 139 hits. Sharp control the best attribute here.
20) Kiel Roling, 1B, Grade C: .222/.286/.390 for Tulsa, 12 homers in 89 games, 27/96 BB/K in 315 at-bats. He tore up the Sally League in '09 but was too old for the level, which is why I just gave him a C.
Not a great campaign for this pre-season list. Chacin has been decent as a rookie, but injury attrition has taken a tool. Rosario's power breakout against Double-A pitching was good to see; the injury is unfortunate.
36 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Well there are still bright spots with this organization
19 year Rafael Ortega has been tearing it up at Casper, Chris Balcom-Miller, by all accounts, has had an awesome year, and of course, Chris Nelson has shown up out of nowhere. Chacin’s performance intrigues me: he never showed the huge K potential in the minors; when his control gets better (it should, he had good control in the minors), and if the K rate stays, he could be huge. Matzek doesn’t worry me much as long as the K’s stays, since he’s still maturing as a pitcher. I really wish Rosario didn’t get hurt because he looked like the crown jewel of the system, and Blackmon is I think underrated because of the age. I would’ve been concerned if the BB/K ratio and the power stayed the same from his early minor league numbers. I still really like Arenado, and Elizer Mesa and Thomas Field should be new additions to the list new year (albeit near the bottom, but they could be C+ prospects)
yeah
yeah, all good points. Glad to see Nelson start to figure things out. I always liked him.
by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2010 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions
What was the primary reason he wasn't in the top 20?
I am a big fan of his and am pretty surprised you didn’t have him the top 20. I figured he would have been on the list over some of the later guys. He was hurt in 2008 but he still hit pretty well.
by King Billy Royal on Aug 19, 2010 12:38 AM EDT up reply actions
nelson?
Nelson? I’ve always been a fan of his but was growing weary and had him down to a Grade C.
by John Sickels on Aug 19, 2010 1:19 AM EDT up reply actions
My bad
I left out his name. I am guessing he would rank much higher this year. ;)
by King Billy Royal on Aug 19, 2010 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Nelson
I see him as a solid B right now. He was actually pretty good last year too, but missed a ton of time due to injuries. If Grant Green is having a year like this 2 years from now in AAA, I think a lot of A’s would be quite happy.
by auclairkeithbc on Aug 19, 2010 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Matzek still get a B+?
or higher? or lower? I personally would lower it to a B. Maybe leave it the same because of performance, but he went down in stuff.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
What is with Chaz Roe?
Is he just not very good?
Matzek really should be a special pitcher…also, I underrate right handed guys like Chacin…young, good, but not spectacular…that is the profile of a sinner in the prospect world.
Roe hasn't stood out in any yearsince he's been drafted
His age keeps him a prospect, though I should note he’s had an up and down sort of year: he’s had 2 months with ERA"s over 8 and 2 under 4. He has one option year left, so I expect another year in Triple A from his and possibly be tried out in September next year and in Spring Training, though it wouldn’t surprise me if he were outrighted soon. He’s been unspectactular but solid through most of his MILB career, so if he turns it around in Triple A next year, he could be a pleasant surprise.
How do you rank these three...
Matzek, Chacin, and Friedrich?
Matzek is #1 for me. The K rate is strong, and despite his walk issues, he still sports a low ERA (2.75). Command can be polished. I give him a A-; people will say that I am crazy for upgrading him in a season when he walked so many, but if anything I am encouraged. The fact that he can have such success while being a bit wild makes me wonder how good he could be after he refines that control.
Chacin would be #2. Flashed signs of dominance (including a 12 k game in the majors), but has had his issues with command. I see him as a strong #2 pitcher in the majors with a strong GB rate. He might even lead the league in k’s a year or two. Strong B+.
Friedrich comes in at #3; what a mediocre year. The injury troubles are notable, but I look for a bounce back in 2011. B/B+.
Chacin first by a long shot
major league hitters have been absolutely fooled by his plus changeup, and once he develops better fastball command of his pitches, he should be dangerous. He gets so much movement on his pitches, it’s crazy, and he doesn’t know how to control it yet.
Still, anybody who hold’s a consistent 9.6 K rate in the majors with success is better than any A baller to me. Especially when he’s only a year older than most of them.
McKenry just recently hit the skids at the plate, Didn’t he? He was hitting around the .300 mark for much of the year.
It's because of the amount of road games CS has played recently
He has to have about the worst home/road split in the majors.
Tim Wheeler
He has to be one of the biggest disappointments this year, Not even hitting .250 in the Cal League as a #1 Draft pick out of college is very worrisome. Anything positive from him this year or is he on the way to be very concerned about?
His batting average doesn't matter
The defense in the Cal League has been absolutely horrid.
The average BABIP in the Cal League from 2007-2009 was .364, which is astonishingly high and absolutely dwarfs Wheeler’s .290 mark.
It hasn’t been a great year, but his numbers should look much better than they do.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Aug 18, 2010 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions
.364 average babip over a three-year period
makes me want to play in the Cal League. Wow.
by richieabernathy on Aug 18, 2010 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions
He's striking out way too much
Everything, like his ISO, the walks, and the steals are reasonably within the expectations that were held of him.
brothers
I’d say setup guy in the short run
by John Sickels on Aug 18, 2010 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions
go talk to the Rockies
I imagine if they thought he was a starter, they would have had him starting in the low minors. So I don’t think it’s going to happen.
They specifically moved
him to a relief role so he could move faster through the system.
"No Mission Too Difficult, No Sacrifice Too Great—Duty First" - 1st Infantry Division Motto
Purple Row - Covering all your Rockies needs!
SB Nation Denver - The regional hub for Denver sports!
Diplomatic and Military History Book Review - My other blog where I go all historical on you.
Albert Campos - RHP
Keep an eye on this kid. He’s pitching at Casper this season and is quite impressive.
I’ve had a chance to watch him pitch in person, and he’s someone you’ll be hearing about alot more in the future.
I'm almost starting to get the feel that Matzek's starting to get seriously underrated
Yes, his control problems are an issue, but the guy is 19 and is still maturing, Not every top prospect or major leaguer makes a bang in their first professional season. I still see a lot of positives in Matzek’s season, like the K’s despite the decreased velocity, the lack of hits against, and his starts where he’s shown complete dominance (He’s had 2 starts where he hasn’t given up a hit). So sure, lower him greatly on your list, but he still has massive potential. If he matures and gets his velocity back, you’ll be eating crow.
No, not really
My point is that despite the walks, he still has a massive ceiling. We always knew that players like Turner and Miller had low floors, but the walks don’t change his ceiling, and his season has still been successful to this point. It’s not like he’ll be held back in A ball for a year. So far, the only problem with Matzek’s game is the command, and command is something that can be fixed. Everything else (K/9, H/9, ERA, HR/9), is right where you’d want it.
Not sure why you like the HR rate
1.8% of the batters he’s faced have taken him deep. As a league, 1.7% of PA end in HR in the SAL. The only reason the HR/9 looks good is because he’s facing crappy hitters who have trouble taking any pitcher deep.
Blackmon
Interesting that JS’s sources are saying good things, as Blackmon’s numbers are pretty impressive, too. Missed a bunch of the year, but has improved his numbers from what he did in the Cal Lg — no mean feat. I’ve heard good things about his defense, too.
Yeah
I like him a lot. Almost traded for him in a deep fantasy league of mine a week or two ago, but my trade partner took another look at him and had me switch him out of the package for someone else.
by auclairkeithbc on Aug 19, 2010 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions
funny how Young is hitting higher in the majors
think he will come down to reality
Any task BIG or small, Do it well or not at all
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
