2010 Top 20 Pittsburgh Pirates Pre-Season Prospects in Review
by John Sickels on Aug 15, 2010 10:00 AM EDT
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Here is a review of the 2010 Pirates prospect list, originally published December 16, 2009. THIS IS A REVIEW OF THE OLD LIST AND PRE-SEASON GRADES. THIS IS NOT A NEW LIST. The 2011 list and new grades won't be ready until the season is over and I start writing the book.
1) Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Grade A: .277/.363/.533 for Triple-A Indianapolis, .239/.318/.443 with 10 homers in 49 major league games. He strikes out a lot and seems unlikely to hit for a great average, but the power is genuine.
2) Jose Tabata, OF, Grade B: .308/.373/.424 in Triple-A, .303/.353/.394 in the majors, 12 steals. The question still remains...will he develop power? He's still young, just turned 22 yesterday.
3) Tony Sanchez, C, Grade B: .314/.416/.454 in 59 games for High-A Bradenton. Out with broken jaw. He's a good prospect and I think the Pirates took too much criticism for drafting him last year.
4) Zack Von Rosenberg, RHP, Grade B-: 3.53 ERA, 30/11 K/BB in 51 innings for State College in the New York-Penn League, 53 hits. Throwing strikes, as expected. Would like to see more strikeouts next year.
5) Tim Alderson, RHP, Grade B-: 6.07 ERA with 64/35 K/BB in 102 innings, 124 hits combined between Double-A Altoona and Bradenton, has been getting killed (20 runs in 15.2 innings) since being demoted last month. He's falling apart...the Giants knew what they were doing when they traded him.
6) Brad Lincoln, RHP, Grade B-: 3.92 ERA, 71/19 K/BB in 83 innings for Triple-A Indianapolis, 70 hits. 6.57 ERA with 21/14 K/BB in 51 major league innings, 64 hits. There is some risk he may be a Quadruple-A guy, but I would give him more chances.
7) Chase D'Arnaud, INF, Grade C+: .253/.336/.372 for Altoona, 27 steals. Speed is his best offensive attribute. Range and reliability may not be good enough for shortstop, but defensive numbers at second base are better.
8) Starling Marte, OF, Grade C+: .318/.404/.459 with 16 steals in 45 games between Bradenton and GCL injury rehab. Speed is best attribute, power still in the raw stages.
9) Rudy Owens, LHP, Grade C+: 2.74 ERA, 106/22 K/BB in 128 innings, 107 hits for Altoona, 1.42 GO/AO. A strong season, should see the majors next year.
10) Ronald Uviedo, RHP, Grade C+: 5.49 ERA, 67/31 K/BB in 62 innings between Altoona and Double-A New Hampshire in Toronto system, traded for Dana Eveland. Getting killed with homers, 15 out of 56 hits.
11) Victor Black, RHP, Grade C+: Has missed almost entire year with oblique and shoulder injuries.
12) Daniel McCutchen, RHP, Grade C+: 3.99 ERA, 39/19 K/BB in 79 innings in Triple-A, 71 hits. 6.64 ERA in 41 major league innings, 49 hits, 22/19 K/BB, 11 homers. He's fun to root for but his stuff may be just a bit too short for the majors.
13) Brett Lorin, RHP, Grade C+: 3.71 ERA with 29/8 K/BB in 29 innings between GCL Pirates (rehab) and Low-A West Virginia, recovering from hip injury. He's a sleeper for next year.
14) Robbie Grossman, OF, Grade C+: .240/.341/.350 for Bradenton, 58 walks, 101 strikeouts in 400 at-bats. Draws some walks and has stolen 13 bases, but power remains negligible and strikes out too much.
15) Diego Moreno, RHP, Grade C+: Interesting season, 1.07 ERA in 34 innings for Bradenton, just 13 hits, 50/5 K/BB ratio. In Double-A, 7.2 innings, 10 hits, six runs, but a 12/3 K/BB. Already 24 but should be watched next year.
16) Justin Wilson, LHP, Grade C+: 3.35 ERA, 101/54 K/BB in 116 innings for Altoona, 93 hits, 1.55 GO/AO. A nice solid season all-around.
17) Colton Cain, LHP, Grade C+: 4.45 ERA in 32 innings between GCL Pirates and State College, 31/14 K/BB, 24 hits. Samples too small to mean much. Next year should tell us more.
18) Gorkys Hernandez, OF, Grade C: .266/.333/.334, 17 steals for Altoona, 95 strikeouts in 92 games. Glove and speed are assets, but I'm doubting he'll hit enough.
19) Trent Stevenson, RHP, Grade C: 4.36 ERA with 21/12 K/BB in 33 innings, 33 hits between GCL and State College. More sample size issues here. Low-A staff should be very interesting next year.
20) Brooks Pounders, RHP, Grade C: 4.60 ERA, 26/5 K/BB in 31 innings for State College, 33 hits. Excellent K/BB ratio.
The pitching staff at Low-A next year should be very intriguing, with ZVR, Cain, Stevenson, Pounders, and probably Jameson Taillon heading there. Lefties Owens and Wilson could help in the majors next year, and I still find a healthy Lorin to be a good sleeper. The hitting is less interesting once you get past the Alvarez/Tabata/Sanchez trio. I didn't believe in Neil Walker as more than a Grade C guy pre-season, and I still wonder if he can maintain his '10 performance next year.
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Rudy Owens
Any recent reports on his velocity? I know it was a point of debate in recent months when reports had it higher than expected. Wish he induced more ground balls; almost half of his homers allowed have come in his last six starts. Still, he doesn’t turn 23 until December, his performance this year has been steady and the Pirates have done a nice job of managing his workload. He’s just four innings over last year’s total as of August 10th which should allow him to get an ideal increase in innings pitched. Nicely done.
Is that
recent, and did they say where his FB parks? He’s had high strikeout games recently. I think he, Locke and Morris (of course) all have a chance of getting auditions in 2011.
by blackoutyears on Aug 15, 2010 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions
They don't often mention velocity
But every time they have, they say “with a fastball reaching 94”. I think he sits in the low nineties, but he obviously has excellent control.
Also, you might want to add Wilson to that group. He’s been great all year, with the exception of his walk numbers. He just threw 8 innings of 2-hit shutout ball last night, with 11 ks. His era is barele over 3 for the year.
Yea...
everything I have heard is Owens sits 90-92 and touches 94 with really good control and an outstanding change.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
The control
is definitely plus. And Wilson is definitely interesting. That last start was light out.
by blackoutyears on Aug 15, 2010 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Walker looks extremely good this season
Consistent game in and game out. Seems like more of a threat to hit 50 doubles next year than he does of totally stepping back.
There has been nothing that Walker has done in the majors which suggests that....
…his season is a fluke. A reversal now would be a major surprise, to put it mildly.
s.zielinski
.366 BAbip
is pretty flukey. I doubt he can maintain the 25% LD rate to support it, either.
Why would you doubt his ability to maintain a 25% LD rate?
nt
s.zielinski
it's super high
a) everything regresses
b) he’s never demonstrated that level of talent before
Every measurement regresses to its mean
However, we do not know what Walker’s mean production is with respect to his LD%. Therefore, at this point in time, it’s not clear where his LD% will settle.
Walker’s always had the talent. He’s lacked the plate discipline needed to control the strike zone. That lack of discipline appears to be less of a problem these days.
s.zielinski
We know
that his LD rate in AAA (~1300 PA) was 18-21%. His BB rate was 6-7%. That serves as a baseline for regression.
It doesn't because mid-2009 Walker changed
His average climbed, hit began to draw walks, and he began to push himself back on to the prospect tract.
He continued to produce at this new level this year. So, he’s maintained his new level of productivity for one year and over the course of two calender years.
The upshot: He modified his game in such a way that he’s diminished the predictive value of his statistical history.
s.zielinski
Epoc
With regard to his LD rate, the premise that he’d regress back to what he did in AAA is fine, assuming he didn’t make any adjustments. But, as Steve says, he did turn a corner mid-2009 by leveling out his swing, cutting down on the fly balls and transferring those would-be fly balls into line drives. His GB rate is about 1-2% higher in the MLB than his AAA numbers, which also suggest a legitimate adjustment in his swing plane.
I haven’t seen a scouting report confirming that, but I would guess that’s the big adjustment. Assuming that’s legit, and he can maintain a mid-20s LD rate, a BAPIP in the .350-.360 range isn’t too unreasonable, and factoring his power and below-average defense, he’s still an above average MLB 2B.
His LD rate
this year at AAA was 21%. I’m not denying he made some adjustments. He’s obviously a much better player now than he was a year ago. Nonetheless, both his LD rate and his BAbip are unlikely to remain where they are.
I agree and find it hard to believe he wasn't in top 20
Any task BIG or small, Do it well or not at all
by Rickfansince76 on Aug 20, 2010 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Tough system to grade. Some of their prospects have definitely struggled and a lot depends on what players they can get signed from the most recent draft.
I still think the Pirates have made considerable strides under NH. Sure Alderson has really taken steps back, and the Giants may have known something before agreeing to the deal, but it isn’t like Sanchez is playing that well either. You can say similar things about a lot of the deals they made but the players they gave up aren’t playing well either. NH can only get what is available. If he can continue to draft well, talent will cycle through and I think the organization will end their losing streak.
Pirates got mucho criticism for the Sanchez pick but the O’s came out unscathed after picking Hobgood, confusing stuff.
that's because
The Pirates went on a huge spending spree and signed a bunch of draft prospects that were thought to be unsignable. Huge influx of prep pitchers, which always gets people excited.
The Orioles didn’t go cheap, either. Ryan Berry cost somewhere in the area of $800-900k, and Cameron Coffey got $990k. Both dropped due to significant injury concerns, though, and Berry was more of a high ceiling low floor type of player. I’m not quite sure what to think of Coffey yet.
Orioles
They also had taken the best player available the previous two years as well (Wieters/Matusz) when they were on the clock. The Pirates had taken Moskos over Wieters,
Stupid media
You asked why the reaction was different. Everyone assumed the O’s were going cheap in round 1 because they had paid so much the previous two years AND took some overslot guys later on. The Pirates didn’t make a cheap pick, they simply overdrafted a guy then paid him overslot. The circumstances are very different.
????
I understood the pirates plan I was just commenting on the baseball media criticizing the Pirates for playing it safe with the fourth over all but not criticizing the O’s for making the same move.
The Hobgood was a bit confusing. He was virtually unknown to me a couple weeks before the draft, and I certainly didn’t think he was going to go that high leading up to the draft. Media seemed split but willing to give the O’s the benefit of doubt. Sanchez was immediately labeled as an overdraft but nearly everyone. I think a lot of people understood the Pirates plan but didn’t think it would work. Too early to tell whether it worked, but they also paid more for Sanchez than I thought they would (just slightly above slot I believe?).
In the end, I think it was an interesting strategy to use and quite possibly the right way to go given the circumstances. Looking back in hindsight, there are definitely things they could have done differently but I think they did a good job with that draft class.
Morris, Adcock, Locke are among their best prospects now and weren’t even included in this list. That’s not a criticism, just evidence that their system is filled with projects with upside. The first wave of Huntington pitching should arrive next year and hopefully more of those projects will continue to progress.
Also, it’s too early to write off Alderson. He obviously not a “B” prospect now, and he needs a full rebuild (or more likely is in the middle of one), but he’s 21. He still has a reasonably high upside just based on what he’s done in his career up to this point. He’s not a safe bet, but I’ll reserve my judgment until next year.
charity standing orders
reasonably high upside?
Doing well in minor league games != having high upside
Honestly...
I am a Pirates fan and I know Alderson sucks. He doesn’t have the stuff at all. Maybe if he adds like 5 mph to his fastball I will stop thinking he sucks.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
Has he taken a step backwards?
Yes.
Did the Pirates give up anything to get him?
No.
He was worth the flier for sure, even if its only a 10-20% that Alderson works out, I’d rather him that than Sanchez from the time the trade was made going forward. Freddy has a wOBA of .292 right now and is way overpaid. I make this deal 100 times out of 100.
not really
I dont think the Pirates knew what they were getting… they thought his value was down a bit, but nothing led them to believe this kind of a meltdown was coming…
I agree...
I’m not complaining about the trade. That doesn’t change the fact that he sucks though.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
No
but pitching well in AA as a 20 year old and having a really good curve before losing his stuff does. Is he a great prospect? No. Could he still turn into an average SP? I’d argue yes.
You don’t have to be an asshole about it.
charity standing orders
Tabata
Still not enough love IMO.
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No way
Grissom was way faster then Tabata. I highly doubt that Tabata puts up Grissom type seasons.
by King Billy Royal on Aug 15, 2010 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah
Prime Grissom was hot (and underrated at his peak). Great speed, great arm (and I assume range), nice pop.
well, let's see
Grissom’s stats in minor leagues:
1988 – .323/.393/.502 with 23 SB in low-A
1989 – .299/.365/.414 with 24 SB in AA and .278/.327/.406 and 16 SB in AAA
Tabata’s stats in minor leagues:
AA (2 Seasons average) – .283/.350/.381 with 25 SB
AAA (2 Seasons average) – .296/.358/.419 with 29 SB
Looks to me that Tabata’s got comparable batting and walking skills, less pop but MORE speed.
if you’re going to say “Grissom was way faster”, at least back it up. Stats prove otherwise.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Aug 16, 2010 5:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Did you ever watch Grissom play?
He was easily a plus plus runner in his prime. This guy stole over 70 bases in back to back seasons. You don’t to look at ‘stats’ to know who is way faster. You can just watch both of them actually play.
Also, are you sure that your minor league stats are right for AA and AAA in regards to Tabata? I read them as follows:
2008 – .277/.345/.388 with 18 steals primarily in AA
2009 – .293/.357/.406 with 11 steals in AA and AAA
2010 – .308/.373/.424 with 25 steals in AAA
I’m not sure where you got such high stolen base totals in AA. He did turn the steals on this year so perhaps he has become more of a burner, but he has never been known for having speed need Grissom level.
by King Billy Royal on Aug 16, 2010 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Oy
Judging speed based on minor league SB totals is muy, muy malo, pox. Tabata is fast, no doubt, but Marquis Grissom had elite speed.
by blackoutyears on Aug 16, 2010 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions
Grissom
I remember how shallow he played in CF. He could turn around and run down any ball hit over his head. Grissom was a fast, fast man.
Yeah
I think anyone who actually saw him play will attest to that. He and Devon White were two of my favorite defenders of that era.
by blackoutyears on Aug 16, 2010 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions
White was the best CF I have ever seen
He ran like a deer (he actually looked like this) and had insane range. One of those guys who makes everything look easy.
by King Billy Royal on Aug 16, 2010 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree
I’ve seen quite a bit of Tabata now, and every at bat he stings the ball – line drives all over the field. Even if he doesn’t become a 20+ HR guy at his peak, his line-drive swing and gap power combined with his exceptional speed and good defense still makes for a very valuable player.
Tabata
I’m skeptical. He hits the ball pretty hard, but he rarely gets any air under it. Though he’s patient he rarely walks because pitchers aren’t afraid to challenge him. I would not call his speed exceptional, though it is good, and as a RHH without exceptional speed, I’m not sure he’s going to maintain an elite BAbip. He limits the Ks and plays decent defense, but I think it’s 50/50 that he ever becomes an above-average player overall.
Thanks for the link
Tabata’s definitely exceeded my expectations in the SB department, as he’s on pace for ~30 steals over a full season. Looking at him, I expected a slower player. It’s good to see he’s one of those guys who’s thick, but quick.
Batting average, defense, speed
I think he’s above average right now, at the age of 22 (which he just turned this week), and you think it’s only 50/50 he gets better?
i know
was a solid B by John (http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/1/15/132056/714) and, honestly, people were putting him in the top-100 of 2008 http://www.sportscity.com/mlb/top-100-mlb-prospects-2008/). I am assuming it’s physical or has Steve Bass claimed another victim?
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Aug 15, 2010 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Diego Moreno
Not terribly young, like you note, but of course that doesn’t matter terribly much for pitchers, especially if they have electric stuff (if they do harness it, then it’s there, regardless of what age they’re at when it happens — different of course for finesse guys carving up the lower minors).
Anyone know what the incident was that caused him to be sent back to hi-A?
If I remember correctly
the incident coincided with some poor pitching on his part. I didn’t get the impression that the demotion was based purely on whatever he did as much as performance reasons.
showing a lit of good young hitters who are streaky
they need to find it more consist and the pitchers coming up have been disappointin
Any task BIG or small, Do it well or not at all
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