2010 Cleveland Indians Top 20 Pre-Season Prospects in Review
by John Sickels on Aug 14, 2010 1:00 PM EDT
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Here is a review of the 2010 Indians prospect list, originally published January 9th, 2010. THIS IS A REVIEW OF THE OLD LIST AND PRE-SEASON GRADES. THIS IS NOT A NEW LIST. The 2011 list and new grades won't be ready until the season is over and I start writing the book.
1) Carlos Santana, C, Grade A: .316/.447/.597 for Triple-A Columbus, .260/.401/.467 in 46 games for the Indians. Obviously successful, hopefully the knee injury won't be a long-term problem.
2) Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, Grade B+: .264/.329/.433 for Double-A Akron, 14 homers, 29 walks, 55 strikeouts in 360 at-bats. Makes contact and has some pop, but not dominating.
3) Nick Hagadone, LHP, Grade B: 2.39 ERA with 45/29 K/BB in 38 innings for High-A Kinston, 4.46 ERA with 36/26 K/BB in 36 innings for Akron. Great stuff as shown by the K/IP ratios, but walk rate is excessive.
4) Alex White, RHP, Grade B: 2.58 ERA, 104/41 K/BB in 132 innings combined between Kinston and Akron, 109 hits, 1.74 GO/AO. A fine campaign.
5) Hector Rondon, RHP, Grade B: 8.53 ERA for Columbus with 33/10 K/BB in 32 innings, 48 hits. Went on the DL in May.
6) Michael Brantley, OF, Grade B-: .319/.395/.425 with 13 steals for Columbus, .174/.252/.256 in 121 at-bats in the majors. He'll get more chances.
7) Carlos Carrasco, RHP, Grade B-: 4.04 ERA, 105/44 K/BB in 123 innings for Columbus, 119 hits, 1.53 GO/AO. Outlook remains the same: he's got the stuff, but will he make the most of it in the majors? Gets grounders but has also given up 16 homers.
8) Nick Weglarz, OF, Grade B-: .285/.390/.503 between Akron and Columbus, 50 walks, 69 strikeouts in 312 at-bats. He still hasn't fully tapped into his power, but he's getting closer. On DL with sprained thumb ligament.
9) Jason Knapp, RHP, Grade B-: 8.1 innings of rehab work in rookie ball so far, with 14/3 K/BB, recovering from shoulder procedure.
10) T.J. House, LHP, Grade B-: 3.62 ERA with 91/50 K/BB in 117 innings for Kingston, 112 hits. Good year, not a great one.
11) Jason Kipnis, 2B-OF, Grade C+: .313/.395/.502 in 106 games between Kinston and Akron. Error rate at second base is high, but with this kind of bat they will be patient there.
12) Lou Marson, C, Grade C+: Couldn't hold off Santana with a .186/.263/.267 major league mark. Glove will get him more chances as a reserve.
13) Zach Putnam, RHP, Grade C+: 4.48 ERA, 50/13 K/BB in 62 innings between Akron and Columbus, 73 hits. I still see him as a good future reliever.
14) Tony Sipp, LHP, Grade C+: 5.19 ERA with 47/32 K/BB in 43 major league innings, 37 hits. Command the main problem.
15) Josh Judy, RHP, Grade C+: 3.46 ERA, 44/11 K/BB in 39 innings between Akron and Columbus, 48 hits. Strong K/IP and K/BB ratios, hit rate is rather high.
16) Jess Todd, RHP, Grade C+: 3.48 ERA, 50/18 K/BB in 44 innings for Columbus, 42 hits. In the relief mix for next year.
17) Mitch Talbot, RHP, Grade C+: Pre-season, I wrote "he could pull a Randy Wells in 2010," as a guy coming out of nowhere and doing well. 4.09 ERA, 67/51 K/BB in 121 innings, 120 hits for the Indians. The low strikeout rate is bothersome, but otherwise this is a decent rookie year.
18) Scott Barnes, LHP, Grade C+: 4.83 ERA, 99/43 K/BB in 110 innings for Akron, 101 hits. Season is better than the ERA indicates, FIP is 4.12 and he's improved each month.
19) Eric Berger, LHP, Grade C+: 5.11 ERA, 73/59 K/BB in 92 innings between Akron and Columbus, 92 hits. Command the big problem here, simply too many walks.
20) Jason Donald, INF, Grade C+: .259/.319/.403 for the Indians. I expect a long career as a competent utility player.
21) Kelvin De La Cruz, LHP, Grade C+: 2.91 ERA with 28/8 K/BB in 34 innings for Kinston, 4.54 ERA with 64/48 K/BB in 77 innings for Akron. Command slipped at the higher level, but 6-5, 190 pound lefties who hit 90 are inherently interesting.
22) Conor Graham, RHP, Grade C+: 3.36 ERA, 48/39 K/BB in 64 innings for Akron, 66 hits, 3.06 GO/AO. Strikeouts down from previous seasons, but tons of grounders, seemed to take well to relief conversion.
23) Jeanmar Gomez, RHP, Grade C+: 5.20 ERA, 78/42 K/BB in 116 innings for Columbus, 129 hits. Although he has a 1.56 ERA in three major league starts (9/5 K/BB in 17 innings, 14 hits), the Triple-A numbers aren't very good. Wide range of possible outcomes next year.
24) Alex Perez, RHP, Grade C+: Tommy John.
Aside from some typical pitcher injury attrition, there is quite a bit to be pleased with here. Santana was excellent, Weglarz has made progress, several pitchers look good. On the negative side, I do wonder if Chisenhall may be overrated. I have no idea what to expect from Carrasco and Gomez next year...they could both be quite successful in the majors, but they could also stink.
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they've had several other pitchers emerge as well...
Joe Gardner is a ground ball machine. Rob Bryson and Bryce Stowell are potential power arms out of the bullpen…Chen-Chang Lee is another bullpen arm that has emerged. Bryan Price hasn’t had a terrific year, but he’s a guy I’ve like since Boston picked him a couple years ago.
So some good pitching depth for Cleveland, though they are obviously missing a legit top of the rotation type of pitching prospect…I’d expect that to change after next year’s draft.
+1 on Gardner
Saw this kid pitch once this year – good stuff. He’s got a nice build for a pitcher and seemed to have good command of his pitches and used them well in situations. He’s one to keep an eye on. Bo Greenwell is another position player to keep an eye on.
Pomeranz
Doesn’t Drew Pomeranz count as a “legit, top of the rotation type” or, does he not count for one reason or another?
Rip Fredrick0220, cwhitman412, Mets2k9- mis you guys
preseason list
This is a preseason list that John is commenting on. Pomeranz wasn’t drafted at that point and wouldn’t have been eligible. Has he signed yet?
he has not signed
But I think casejud was referring to Eisenberg’s comment that they lack a frontline caliber pitching prospect. Pomeranz would probably qualify as one for most people.
Bingo
Are you one of those people? I have only een a small clip of Pomeranz but, it was impressive and so are his numbers and size, and stuff.
Rip Fredrick0220, cwhitman412, Mets2k9- mis you guys
pomeranz
I think he’ll need more time than most college pitchers drafted this highly and thus he is a bit riskier than you might hope for, but if they don’t rush him he has the raw talent to pitch at the top of a rotation.
He has some...
good potential. Could be a #2. There are not many lefties with stuff like his.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
No Dude
I wasn’t asking if Pomeranz should be on this list. I was responding to the posters comment that Cleveland lacked a #1 type pitcher in the system. I don’t believe he has signed but, either has next year’s #1 pick that he commented on above.
Rip Fredrick0220, cwhitman412, Mets2k9- mis you guys
actually forgot about Pomeranz...
I’d say he is borderline top of the rotation…I don’t see him as a No. 1 guy. I don’t see him anchoring a rotation. I see his upside being more of a No. 2 starter.
by Alex Eisenberg on Aug 14, 2010 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Chisenhall overated?
I think it depends on what people expect from Chisenhall. Scott Rolen he is not. But he could have as long of a career with really solid defense and respectable numbers. He could be a medium power 3B or move to second where his power would be above average for a 2B. I haven’t seen him play this year, but I remember him last year as a hard worker and solid all around player, especially on defense. But you are right his hitting hasn’t come around as well in AA.
His numbers are dragged down by a stretch of a few weeks where he didn't hit at all because of a bum shoulder
followed by a DL stint… followed by him raking again.
I still think the bat is going to be great. Top 20 prospect for me most likely.
Bullpen Banter
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+1
I don’t know about a top-20 ranking… but he’s still one of the best 3B prospects in baseball.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Aug 14, 2010 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions
-1
Disagree. He hasn’t been raking since his DL. His pre-AS break numbers were .267 / .341 / .410 with a .751 OPS. Post ASB he’s been .257 / .313 / .485 for an OPS of .798. That’s really not that much better than before, and it’s not a good batting line no matter how you slice it.
-1 and only member of the Nick Weglarz fan club!
I don't know how you slice it, but for me this slice actually looks pretty tasty.
I HATE OPS. It does more harm than good at this point.
When I see a .257/.313/.485 line I see a guy who has a decent walk rate (good separation between AVG and OBP) and a really high SLG. The fact he’s been able to put up a .485 SLG despite a low AVG dragging it down… that’s pretty close to “raking” for me. AVG is the flukiest of stats in the minors… over a SSS like that its very likely Chiz just ran into a little bad luck. If we raise that line to a .277 AVG he suddenly looks phenomenal… and over the post ASB sample, we’re talking of a difference of a handful of hits. Combine this with the fact that he has a fantastic swing, great plate coverage and that I already have very little doubt he can be a regular .280-.300 hitter in the majors… well, he looks great to me.
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I should also add that Chisenhall is the youngest player on his team.
Just as he was when he was rushed to AA last year for 24 games
Bullpen Banter
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And I should add, once again, that Chisenhall's BABIP is incredibly and unsustainably LOW
In a league where the average BABIP is around .335, look at his May-August BABIP:
May: .205
June: .288
July: .269
August: .200
The power is there, the walks are there, the strikeout rate is low, and the poor batting average is mostly a function of bad luck on balls in play. There’s a lot to like about what he’s done this season.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Aug 15, 2010 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
apparently this is incorrect
His BABIP is low, but he sure appears to be sustaining it when you look at it from month to month.
I'm not so comfortable assuming bad BABIP luck with minor league players.
Most of what we know about BABIP we know with regards to major league players with a certain level of skill.
Give me a bat, and I’m not going to put up a .300 BABIP in the minors.
right
I don’t doubt that sometimes minor leaguers are subject to bad luck, but the single biggest reason that most of them aren’t in the majors is the (seemingly obvious) fact that they simply aren’t as good as players in the major leagues.
With BABIPs this much lower than the league average over the span of the better part of a season, either Chisenhall is one of the unluckiest players ever in the history of the Eastern League or there’s something wrong with his approach. Maybe it’s both. When trying to explain the difference between his BABIP and the league average, how much of it should we attribute to bad luck, and how much to a lack of skill?
Agreed
It is the same as when a pitcher consistently outperforms, or does worse, then his FIP. Peripherals are very important but after a reasonable sample size, we should instead look at results.
by King Billy Royal on Aug 16, 2010 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions
What about when
-a guy has a shoulder injury
-& the scouting projects him as an excellent contact hitter?
I just don’t see the big deal here. Do you all really believe Chisenhall is a low BABIP hitter? I don’t buy that at all. The rest of his peripherals indicate a fairly good command of the strikezone.
Yes, .288/.269 are sustainable. No way is a BABIP near .200 sustainable given the scouting on this guy. His swing is fantastic looking, great bat speed and excellent plate coverage. 32/56 BB/K isnt indicative of a guy with a real flawed approach. Sometimes bad luck is just bad luck (+ injury + being one of the youngest players in your league + playing in a league that stifles offense).
IMO its mostly bad luck. Regardless, I’ve given a number of other factors beyond “bad luck” that are dropping the BABIP & AVG some… Its .270 right now… raise it lets say 10 points – forget the bad luck and just account for ARL, League Run Scoring Environment, Park Run Scoring Environment and shoulder injury. I think 10 points of AVG isn’t an overly optimistic adjustment in this case, no? At that point he’s batting .280/.347/.452 (just working shorthand here, obviously OBP and SLG won’t also go exactly 10 points). With good defense at 3B that’s a pretty impressive prospects. Personally, I really do think the AVG will be even higher than that. There’s more to come from this kid.
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twitter: @alskor
meh
I think he’ll be a solid player, not more than that. He really hasn’t shown that great all-around bat yet.
+1
I’m thinking solid-not-spectacular as well
by John Sickels on Aug 14, 2010 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, not seeing the Chisenhall love.
The bat reminds me a bit of Ty Wigginton. Not a bad player, but I don’t see anything near a top-20 player right now.
Alex White
Saw him pitch brilliantly earlier this year in a Carolina Lg game. The defense behind him was awful and he was the losing pitcher of record despite a really good performance. Then I looked at his numbers in Akron. 6-6 record, 2.45 ERA, 63k, 22BB, but here’s the kicker – he’s given up 40 runs but only 24 were earned at Akron. Poor defense.
Chen Chun-Hsiu
I think he’s fairly intriguing and should be on the 2011 list. The defensive reports behind the plate seem fairly solid, and he’s had good offensive performance. There’s some loft. I know there’s concerns about his bat speed, but it hasn’t hampered him just yet.
Rondon
Can someone tell me what the deal is with Rondon? He has been out since May, but with what? What is the longterm diagnosis? Such a shame, I expected him to contribute this season.
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I thought I heard he has a bum shoulder
Somebody? Anybody?
I read forearm problem.
Its very difficult to find information on this. Ive looked around a bit. I think the Akron paper mentioned it IIRC.
Bullpen Banter
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twitter: @alskor
JeanMar Gomez
I think he is vastly underratted
He’s already every bit as good as Fausto Carmona ever was…
he should be a B- clearly now and if he still qualified top 10-12 in this system….
I’m guessing John would agree
If Carlos Gomez could net J.J. Hardy then Wilson Ramos should have netted at Least Matt Capps...
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Aug 14, 2010 5:04 PM EDT reply actions
Meh
I see a guy who put up 5.8 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, and a 42% GB rate in Triple-A as a 22-year-old.
Not terribly familiar with his scouting reports and couldn’t quickly find a good one, but a 4.35 FIP in his minor league career and a 4.82 FIP in 2010 don’t exactly indicate dominance at the minor league level.
He’s definitely not as good as 2007 Fausto Carmona, I can say that.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Aug 14, 2010 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Carrasco
Really seems to be turning it on lately. In his last 13 starts (76 IP), he has 73 K, 21 BB, a better than 2:1 GO:FO ratio (97:47), a 2.96 ERA, and a 0.83 WHIP. Still, he’s given up 7 HR over this stretch, which isn’t great, but it is better than 16 in 123 innings citing by John in the update.
by auclairkeithbc on Aug 18, 2010 10:27 AM EDT reply actions
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