2010 Top 20 Pre-Season Washington Nationals Prospects in Review
2010 Washington Nationals Top 20 Prospects in Review
Here is a review of the 2010 Nationals prospect list, originally published November 18, 2009. THIS IS A REVIEW OF THE OLD LIST AND PRE-SEASON GRADES. THIS IS NOT A NEW LIST. The 2011 list and new grades won't be ready until the season is over and I start writing the book.
1) Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Grade A: 1.30 ERA, 65/13 K/BB in 55 Double-A and Triple-A innings. 3.07 ERA in 59 major league innings, 79/17 K/BB, 49 hits. He's awesome. He just needs to stay healthy.
2) Derek Norris, C, Grade B+: .226/.409/.385 in 71 games for High-A Potomac. Still drawing tons of walks, has thrown out 52% of runners. I still believe.
3) Drew Storen, RHP, Grade B+: 1.08 ERA with 15/3 K/BB in 17 Double-A/Triple-A innings, 2.75 ERA with 29/16 K/BB in 36 major league innings. No problems here.
4) Danny Espinosa, SS, Grade B: .264/.334/.472 with 20 homers, 21 steals between Double-A and Triple-A. Not going to win batting titles, but does a lot of things well.
5) Chris Marrero, 1B, Grade B-: .291/.354/.446 for Double-A Harrisburg, 14 homers. Home run production not that hot for a first baseman, but at age 21 he has time.
6) Jeff Kobernus, 2B, Grade B-: I changed this to a Grade C+ and lowered him down to number 10 before the book went to press. Hitting .279/.316/.346 for Low-A Hagerstown, so the downgrade was the right move.
7) Michael Burgess, OF, Grade B-: .267/.349/.439 with 12 homers, 44 walks, 85 strikeouts in 97 games for High-A Potomac. Has cut his strikeout rate, still just 21. Breakout next year?
8) Justin Maxwell, OF, Grade C+: .287/.390/.439 with 16 steals in 66 games for Triple-A Syracuse, but just 6-for-47 (.128) with 19 strikeouts (and 16 walks!) for the Nationals. He's 26 now. Power/speed potential is still enormous. . .could he have an age 27 or 28 surge?
9) Ian Desmond, SS, Grade C+: .260/.295/.393 in 107 games for the Nationals, 12 steals. On-base skills are weak. WAR is 0.7. I think he can improve.
10) Bradley Meyers, RHP, Grade C+: 1.47 ERA with 35/7 K/BB in 31 innings for Harrisburg, pitching great, but went on the DL in May with foot injury.
11) Destin Hood, OF, Grade C+: .286/.330/.389 in 111 games for Hagerstown. Not exactly a good season, plate discipline is spotty and power hasn't developed, but he still has a chance to develop.
12) A.J. Morris, RHP, Grade C+: 3.21 ERA, 63/23 K/BB in 76 innings between Potomac and 14 GCL rehab innings following injury, 1.86 GO/AO. Pretty good year.
13) Eury Perez, OF, Grade C+ : .269/.320/.347 with 43 steals for Hagerstown. Love the speed, but needs to improve on-base skills to be a leadoff man at higher levels.
14) Aaron Thompson, LHP, Grade C+: 5.67 ERA, 81/43 K/BB in 121 innings, 144 hits in 23 starts between Double-A and Triple-A. Not developing.
15) Juan Jaime, RHP, Grade C: Out all year with elbow problems.
16) J.P. Ramirez, Of, Grade C: .293/.342/.479 for Hagerstown. Walk rate is low, but there's some offensive potential here.
17) J.R. Higley, OF, Grade C: .233/.303/.353 in 35 games for Hagerstown. On restricted list, suspended for PED use, taking Ritalin. It sure wasn't helping his numbers.
18) Paul Demny, RHP, Grade C: 3.93 ERA, 90/40 K/BB in 110 innings for Hagerstown, 104 hits. Not terrible, not terrific.
19) Marco Estrada, RHP, Grade C: 3.15 ERA in 40 innings for Triple-A Nashville in the Brewers system after Milwaukee claimed him on waivers, 33/11 K/BB. 13/6 K/BB in 11 major league innings, but with 14 hits and 13 runs. Has missed much of season with a sore shoulder. Not really a prospect at age 27, but for some reason I thought he could be interesting.
20) Jeff Mandel, RHP, Grade C: 4.36 ERA, 82/44 K/BB in 126 innings, 144 hits between Double-A and Triple-A. Can eat innings, but that's about it.
Strasburg and Storen make this a successful year. Desmond has shown flashes, and I still think Norris is going to be a very, very good player, although with catchers there is always the risk of stagnation. I like Espinosa a lot too. The rest of the list is pretty blah.
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Now Having Wilson Ramos in AAA
too certainly doesn’t hurt matters…
If Carlos Gomez could net J.J. Hardy then Wilson Ramos should have netted at Least Matt Capps...
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Aug 12, 2010 4:32 PM EDT reply actions
That's a long way away.
Norris seems to be making at least some progress defensively. His bat may have regressed. His defense seems to be making progress. Seems more catcheresque to me. I don’t think you start factoring in whose blocking whom until a guy gets closer to the upper minors or there’s a seriously entrenched all-star starter who won’t be going anywhere.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park. In Rizzo and Ramos we trust.
Eury Perez
Isn’t he having a spendid second half of the season? What do you think of Steve Lombardozzi? Yes, he’s not a german chocolate cake more of a pound cake but this kids got lots of it. What ever it is?
It's a review of the original list.
Lombardozzi’s tools and defense don’t really project too well for a lot of folks. He’s certainly continued his steady eddie ways at Potomac this year. C+ next year? Top 20?
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park. In Rizzo and Ramos we trust.
I'm a big Lombardozzi fan.
I don’t think he’ll be flashy and I realize he has a low ceiling. I’m curious about what the neutrals think about him.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park. In Rizzo and Ramos we trust.
by souldrummer on Aug 13, 2010 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions
On Eury Perez...
…splendid second half is probably overstating it some. The question is can he get on base. He still hasn’t really answered that question. He had a hot July with an OBP over .400. His OBP every other month hasn’t gotten been over .304. I like him. He’s young. He’s got speed to burn. But you really can’t raise his grade until he answers that question people have about him. Question for me is at age 20, where do you start him next year? Personally, I’d have him repeat Hagerstown.
Ramirez definitely and Hood probably I’d promote out of the Hagerstown outfield.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park. In Rizzo and Ramos we trust.
pre-emptive

Take a step back from the shark-blood rituals . . .
Which is worst?
A light hearted one-line joke or a giant obnoxious picture that you keep posting?
HAHAHAHA
This is comedy gold. You get a rec sir!!!
by King Billy Royal on Aug 13, 2010 12:20 AM EDT up reply actions
Poor dagerrrrrrr
I think he belongs on the Nats boards. Wonder if this is his first handle or not?
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park. In Rizzo and Ramos we trust.
Flores is supposedly throwing longer distances in Viera.
Which means they haven’t given up hope (in public) but they have given up hope in private. He wouldn’t really even have time to do a significant rehab at this point. Pray he can do Winter Ball but with Pudge, Ramos, and Norris I think he’s out of the picture at this point. So sad.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park. In Rizzo and Ramos we trust.
Pudge should be a non-factor in all this
He can be traded or given a backup role if he starts blocking folks. Although I’m not sure if I’d move Pudge for Flores though, I would for Ramos.
Needs moar dingerz.
Yeah, Rodriguez is kind of a non-factor
My guess is that Flores’ career in Washington is close to done.
I think that Ramos and Norris are the future at catcher for them.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Aug 13, 2010 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Somtimes with the Nationals, it's not almost but not purely the best baseball decision
I’d like to see Ramos get the Opening Day job as well next year. I really think that they will give Pudge at least 1/3 of the starts regardless, though. He’s popular with the fans, and popular with the pitchers while making steady progress toward the 3,000 hit mark. Kind of like the likely hefty Dunn contract or Dunn walking that isn’t as sensible to outsiders, Pudge will probably get at least a little more leeway than some of the baseball people would like.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park. In Rizzo and Ramos we trust.
by souldrummer on Aug 13, 2010 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions
I think that's the case with most teams
The A’s giving Zombie Eric Chavez ABs at DH while a much better hitter in Jack Cust rotted in AAA is a good example of that.
I’m just saying Pudge should get his starts cut if someone else starts banging on that door hard. 70/30 or 60/40 makes sense, since running Ramos into the ground and getting him hurt isn’t the objective.
And the chase is definitely significant.
Needs moar dingerz.
Pudge, Ramos and Flores
I think a 70/30 split next year with Ramos getting the 70 and Pudge getting the 30 is a likely scenario.
Not sure what happened with Flores. Took a foul tip off the shoulder last August (or so), went on the DL, rehabbed, and got hurt worse. Hasn’t played since. He has a solid bat and if he loses his ability to throw as well as a catcher needs to – maybe he could be moved to 1B. He always seemed athletic.
Hopefully, he’s healthy enough this winter to at least go somewhere and DH and get his bat speed back.
Next years top 10...
(Assuming Strasburg isn’t a prospect anymore….)
1.) Bryce Harper (again assuming he signs): A
2.) Derek Norris (quietly solid, love the discipline): B+
3.) Danny Espinosa (Power/Speed combo rare for SS): B+
4.) Chris Marrero (Made some progress, needs to regain power): B
5.) Michael Burgess (Breakout candidate 2011): B
I think if you knock each one back a half a grade, you got it.
1.) Bryce Harper: A-
2.) Derek Norris: B
3.) Danny Espinosa: B
4.) Chris Marrero: B-
5.) Michael Burgess: B-
by cookiedabookie on Aug 12, 2010 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I was just thinking about this.
Does anyone in MiLB get an “A” from John during this year’s off season lists? I don’t think Montero, Harper, Trout, or Hellickson do.
A
Hellickson will. Don’t know about the others.
by John Sickels on Aug 12, 2010 7:15 PM EDT up reply actions
And thats assuming
Hes even on the list. Doesn’t he have a chance to graduate?
If he starts the rest of the year
He almost certainly won’t be eligible.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
I don't go that high
On either Marrero or Espinosa. For a 1B with moderate at best power I’m hard pressed to put a B-, and I know I’m not alone in thinking Espinosa can’t hit .240 in the majors.
I'm okay with B+ for Espinosa
If he can hit 25+ HR in the big leagues, and I don’t think that’s entirely unreasonable, it doesn’t matter that much if he’s hitting .240. Especially if the walks return. Career walk rate is solid.
Burgess
Burgess is certainly trimmer this year and seems to have a better overall attitude. I think that’s helped him improve some. Last year he was fat and would mess around during batting practice and not practice fielding or running at all. He may still be screwing around in BP, but I wouldn’t know since Winston-Salem doesn’t allow fans in their precious new park anymore for BP. But I’d guess someone lit a fire under Burgess and he seems more serious.
I think he's the one that worked out with a trainer something serious over the offseason.
I think Rizzo was very pleased by his physical work. He started out well with the first time through the league and optimistic Nats fans were talking about a promotion. Last couple of months he’s been okay. Certainly worthy of starting at Harrisburg in my opinion but hard to really upgrade his rating. He had some family issues with his grandmother passing this year and he’s missed some games in the second half due to that.
I’m not counting on Burgess, but I’m not giving up on him. There’s going to be pressure from above (He Who Should Shut Up and Sign) and below (at least one of the Hood, Perez, Ramirez group should get promoted to Potomac) for him to get it together something serious. He’s a toolsy high schooler from the Bowden regime who won’t get but so much leeway from Rizzo methinks.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park. In Rizzo and Ramos we trust.
Norris can't still get a B+...
can he? I understand liking him, but he should have to perform to get THAT high of a grade/
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
You can probably go either way.
The OBP is impressive. Most people blame the hamate bone injury for the lack of power. And reports say that he’s at least starting to make some improvement behind the plate. I don’t think that they will be trying to move him to first next year. I think they’ll give him at least a year to try to catch in the Eastern League. Ramos isn’t a guarantee with the bat. Things usually work themselves out.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park. In Rizzo and Ramos we trust.
Disagree
If the scouting reports are still good, and they are, and there is progress defensively, which there has been, and the performance is explained by injury recovery, then the only reason to downgrade him is a ‘what have you done for me lately?’ framework that seems too prevalent in prospect rankings. I’d argue the defensive improvements might actually mean he’s a better prospect than he was a year ago.
If he doesn’t perform next year, I agree completely. But for now the things that made him a good prospect last offseason are all still true.
norris
I have him as a Strong B right now.
by John Sickels on Aug 13, 2010 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Kobernus is a concern for me. He's missing a bunch of time due to injury again.
Meyers injuries have been significant setbacks as well. Didn’t realize Tom Milone wasn’t on last year’s list. Would he make it this year? Lombardozzi seems to also be someone who would make it. He had a .771 OPS at Hagerstown and has followed that up with a .779OPS at Potomac and earning a Harrisburg callup.
To me there’s a gaping Bowden sized chasm in the Nats system. They’ve got the top draft pick guys and Ramos at the top of the system plus Espinosa and Norris. At the bottom of the system, they’ve got the Rizzo college kind of guys who are likely to give the system depth. But the middle, the high schoolers and Bowden hail merry picks is where all the “blah” seems to come from.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park. In Rizzo and Ramos we trust.
Jack McGeary
What’s his status? Is he still considered a prospect or has he faded?
Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club
McGeary got Tommy John.
He was making progress before then. Don’t know if he would have made Top 20 if he had stayed healthy, but I haven’t given up on him and he was starting to get on track after the odd Stanford plus part-time minors Bowden contract he signed.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park. In Rizzo and Ramos we trust.
by souldrummer on Aug 13, 2010 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Ah, explains why he had not pitched since May.
Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club
Tom Milone
How far up the Top 20 does Tom Milone go? I was alittle surprised that he did not make this year’s Top 20. He has followed up his greta season in High-A with an even more dominant AA year. Take into account that Harrisburg’s offense was terrible the 1st half of the season.
Hey, hey natsminor! Glad to see another Nats fan in these parts.
There’s a few of us who follow Sickels at Federal Baseball and I’m trying to herd them together with some minors updates. Today jeff550 gave me the head tap that Yunesky Maya threw 3 dominant innings in the GCL today. Hopefully they get him started on a prehab start quick so that he can help form Los Tres Amigos de Cuba for Harrisburg’s playoff push. (El Duque, Hassan Pena [filler], and Maya).
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park. In Rizzo and Ramos we trust.
Meant to respond to your post too.
To he feels like the pitching equivalent of Lombardozzi. Steady, but didn’t have enough tools to get the scouts to project him as a success. All he’s done is improve his FIP and K/BB ratio at a higher level. I don’t think people were expecting him to do that and that’s why he wasn’t higher up on the Top 20. I didn’t really start following him too closely until a couple weeks ago.
Minorleaguesplits.com has him at 8.18/1.40 K/BB this year for Harrisburg after going 6.22/2.11 at Potomac last year. You go from a 3:1 to a greater than 5:1 K/BB at a higher level and that should jump you up the list significantly. I’ll be very interested to see where John puts him in next year’s ratings as well.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park. In Rizzo and Ramos we trust.
Big news comes down the pipeline in the early morning hours on Sunday
Baseball America’s Jim Callis reporting that the Nats have signed Sammy Solis and A.J. Cole. Both almost certainly crack next year’s top twenty. Reports still sound good that they may lock up Robbie Ray, who was apparently in for a visit today and wearing a Nats watching batting practice. Like SD, I’m not going to mention the other guy’s name until he signs…. worked with Strasburg last year, so why change that superstition?
by bluelineswinger on Aug 15, 2010 2:56 AM EDT reply actions
That's
potentially a huge signing in Cole, and I like Solis quite a bit. Good for them getting Cole done when most pundits gave them almost no chance of doing so. He’s going to take careful development but he could be a total steal in a draft where they also get He Who Cannot Be Named.
by blackoutyears on Aug 15, 2010 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions
I think I started with He Who Cannot Be Named and then remembered that’s like Voldemort the evil guy in the Harry Potter books. When the facebook comments came out, it became He Who Should Shut Up and Sign for me.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park. In Rizzo and Ramos we trust.
ha!
Well played. And now you can say it.
by blackoutyears on Aug 17, 2010 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions
BRYCE HARPER IS SIGNED!!!!
Perhaps now I should call him Bryce Harper Who Needs To Let His Bat Do the Talking.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park. In Rizzo and Ramos we trust.
Haven't added my two cents to the discussion yet
I’m often told to bring a little more sunshine at Federal Baseball. It’s difficult at times.
In truth, compared to the system that we’ve seen in recent years, there’s a lot to get excited about. During the Bowden years, there was little to get excited about throughout the entire system. Perhaps the biggest problem at this point is that there’s just not a whole lot to get excited about in the high minors. Espinosa and Ramos both look like guys who probably turn into regulars on the big league club, though there’s certainly some question whether they’ll even be above average in those roles. Both certainly have their fair share of warts (Espinosa’s contact rate and Ramos’ lack of patience being the most prevalent), but there’s a lot to like as well. Perhaps most importantly, there’s a lot to like from reports on both of them defensively.
The problem is that there’s not a lot of depth in the high minors beyond them. The AAA rotation (save for the temporary Jordan Zimmermann appearance there) is bogged down with a bunch of AAAA guys who have been pushed into duty with the big club due to injuries. Meyers’ performance last year certainly showed that he could be a guy who could develop to be a decent mid-to-back end starter, but his injuries have all but made this a lost year. Thompson’s obviously regressed. Millone’s taken a big step forward, showing that he can sustain last year’s breakout as he’s been equally as dominant (if not more so) upon jumping a level.
We can get excited with the signings of Solis (figures to move a bit quickly) and Cole (probably a bigger upside arm than anyone in the organization outside of Strasburg and Zimmermann), but both are also guys who end up in the same predicament as the position players. Locking up Robbie Ray, which sounds quite possible, works to restock the low minors with some nice upside as well. If Solis works out, maybe he’s up some time in 2012 (?). Ray and Cole still aren’t guys we’re likely to see for about four years, though (assuming a lot of things break right).
I still feel that they missed a terrific opportunity with Dunn at the deadline, though. We’ll see how it all pans out. I viewed it as an opportunity for the Nats to get a young big-league ready starter (based on speculation, would likely have been Dan Hudson, though I’m sure there were plenty of GMs who preferred to keep the media out of negotiations a lot more than Kenny Williams does) and a quality hitting prospect in the high minors who would contribute pretty quickly. Given what the White Sox gave up for Jackson (presumably to use to get Dunn, though it didn’t work that way), they probably could have gotten a mid-level prospect to stock the low minors a bit more as well. It just didn’t make sense to me to not capitalize.
I understand the process, and (to be honest) like most of what I’ve seen here. Everyone’s obviously going to start (with few exceptions) in the low minors, and that’s where Rizzo’s draftees are, based on the fact that he’s been the GM for less than two years. Better depth down below will hopefully lead to a terrific farm system within the next few years. Rizzo has (perhaps wisely) taken the notion that Stan Kasten wanted to build this team from the farm system up to an even further level. He just needs time at this point.
While I like that approach, they need some options who are going to be ready to contribute a bit quicker. Zimmerman’s contract is up after 2013, and (improving farm system or not) if they’re not competing by then, he’s gone…. If Zimm goes, the potential domino effect begins. If the team starts to contend (consistently), the attendance goes up and the money to try and keep some of the high end players from the past couple of drafts down the road (starting with Strasburg in 2016) is a lot more likely to be there.
by bluelineswinger on Aug 15, 2010 4:08 AM EDT reply actions
You know the "sunshine" comments aren't coming from me BLS ;-)
Next year’s AAA rotation will be interesting. If you’ve got Strasburg, Zimmermann, Maya, Livo, Marquis there are some very interesting decisions to make. Current surplus then would be Stammen (likely bullpen), John Lannan (who’d be trying to boot Livo or Marquis), Luis Atilano, Garrett Mock in addition to current AAA guys like Chico (who they probably should give up on) and Martis. Atilano, Mock, and Martis, probably supplemented by Milone and Meyers at some time or both isn’t a world beater AAA rotation I suppose, but it does provide at least one or two 4/5 candidates going forward.
You expect Ramos to graduate by the beginning of next year and it looks they want Espinosa to graduate at some point during 2011. After that, I totally agree with you. It’s real hard to start determining the next real impact guy who will be improving the Nats after He Who Should Shut Up and Sign. There’s not but so much worth following at Potomac and Harrisburg right now. Marrero’s slumping again, Lombardozzi has a low ceiling, and Millone is about the only guy in the rotation who projects as even a back end big leaguer.
Rizzo better sign Dunn at the right price and the Lerners need to continue to open the checkbooks.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park. In Rizzo and Ramos we trust.
I wonder
if this system is shallow enough that Cole makes the next Top 20.
I don't know.
I think there’s a chance. There really aren’t that many high ceiling arms in the system right now. Tom Millone and Bradley Meyers seem to me to be the top pitching prospects at present and Meyers has been hurt much of the year. Both have probably 3/4 starter as ceilings if that.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park. In Rizzo and Ramos we trust.

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