Top 20 2010 Milwaukee Brewers Pre-Season Prospects in Review
by John Sickels on Aug 11, 2010 8:15 PM EDT
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Here is a review of the 2010 Brewers prospect list, originally published January 4, 2010. THIS IS A REVIEW OF THE OLD LIST AND PRE-SEASON GRADES. THIS IS NOT A NEW LIST. The 2011 list and new grades won't be ready until the season is over and I start writing the book.
1) Brett Lawrie, 2B, Grade B+: .291/.352/.470 for Double-A Huntsville, 28 steals in 40 attempts. He has some flaws, but also has a broad range of skills and is young for the level at 20. Defense improving. One of my favorites.
2) Alcides Escobar, SS, Grade B+: .253/.306/.345 in 105 games for the Brewers, -.3 WAR with average defense according to UZR. I'd be interested in the impressions of Milwaukee fans who get to see his glove every day.
3) Eric Arnett, RHP, Grade B: 6.85 ERA, 75/40 K/BB in 93 innings, 112 hits between Low-A Wisconsin and a "fix the mechanics" trip to the Arizona Rookie League. He's still getting killed. I wonder if there is an underlying physical problem here. Stock obviously way down.
4) Jonathan Lucroy, C, Grade B: .311/.349/.418 between Double-A and Triple-A Nashville, .265/.301/.348 in 41 major league games with weak plate discipline. I think he is capable of better.
5) Mat Gamel, 3B, Grade B-: .305/.387/.478 combined between Triple-A Nashville (65 games) and 14 games on rehab in High-A and Double-A. The guy can hit, but where does he play?
6) Kentrail Davis, OF, Grade B-: Slow start at High-A Brevard County, .244/.380/.341 in 33 games. Currently hitting .345/.430/.531 in 39 games for Low-A Wisconsin.The latter numbers are closer to what the Brewers expected, and plate discipline has been excellent at the lower level...will try again in High-A next year.
7) Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Grade B-: 3.21 ERA, 117/35 K/BB in 104 innings for Wisconsin, 85 hits. I love this guy, strong numbers, scouting reports are very positive.
8) Wily Peralta, RHP, Grade B-: 3.86 ERA for Brevard County, 75/40 K/BB in 105 innings, 102 hits. Just promoted to Double-A, 2.20 ERA so far with 10/8 K/BB in 16 innings will need to sharpen command. 1.55 GO/AO combined. I like him too although not as much as Odorizzi.
9) Cody Scarpetta, RHP, Grade B-: 3.58 ERA, 124/58 K/BB in 106 innings, 94 hits for Brevard County. A very solid campaign.
10) Kyle Heckathorn, RHP, Grade B-: 2.91 ERA combined between Wisconsin and Brevard County, 75/30 K/BB in 105 innings, 100 hits, 1.90 GO/AO. I'd like a somewhat higher strikeout rate, but the grounders are nice and he's thrown strikes.
11) Zach Braddock, LHP, Grade C+: 3.57 ERA in 23 major league innings, 26/11 K/BB, 23 hits. He's done decently in limited action, has had some shoulder trouble.
12) Josh Butler, RHP, Grade C+: 4.56 ERA in 53 innings for Huntsville, 36/26 K/BB, 56 hits. Promoted to Triple-A recently, has given up 30 hits and 16 runs in 22 innings, 15/10 K/BB. Not a good year.
13) Lorenzo Cain, OF, Grade C+: .317/.402/.432 with 26 steals in 29 attempts in Double-A and Triple-A, 9-for-19 (.474) in the majors. The tools have always been here, but he's healthy this year and has picked up some plate discipline.
14) Angel Salome, C, Grade C+: .278/.326/.418 in 42 games for Brevard County. Mostly DH and says he wants to learn the outfield. He's had personal problems this year; status very unclear right now.
15) Amaury Rivas, RHP, Grade C+: 3.21 ERA in 21 starts for Huntsville, 95/41 K/BB in 121 innings, 109 hits, 1.55 GO/AO. Looks like a fine year to me.
16) Eric Farris, 2B, Grade C+: .289/.325/.373 in 37 games for Nashville, eight steals. Missed most of the season with undisclosed injury. Hard to know what to make of this.
17) Caleb Gindl, OF, Grade C+: .269/.347/.393 for Huntsville, 48 walks, 59 Ks in 402 at-bats, 10 steals. Kind of a blah season.
18) Evan Anundsen, ,RHP, Grade C+: Pitched three innings for Brevard County on June 14th, has otherwise missed entire season with shoulder problems.
19) Mark Rogers, RHP, Grade C+: 3.86 ERA, 90/62 K/BB in 96 innings for Huntsville, 66 hits. Love the K/IP and H/IP, and he gets grounders too (1.66 GO/AO), but he's got to get the walks down.
20) Logan Schafer, OF, Grade C+: 4-for-23 (.174) in seven games for Brevard County, missed time early with groin injury then broke his foot.
21) Scooter Gennett, SS, Grade C+: .321/.367/.481, 28 walks, 75 strikeouts, 13 steals in 418 at-bats for Wisconsin. 37 doubles. Nice season.
Jeremy Jeffress wasn't on the list due to the drug problem but would be now. There are some disappointments here, especially Arnett, and some injury attrition. But the continued development of Lawrie, Odorizzi, Peralta, Scarpetta, Heckathorn, Cain, and Rivas is good to see.
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I think Lawrie is still underrated
Weird because I believe he actually beat Ackley in their prospect smackdown.
Braddock
Was brilliant across AAA/MLB through July, strange struggles since.
Eric Arnett
I’m gonna have to add him to my list of “called busts” pretty soon.
I saw him pitch up at IU and could not understand how he worked his way into the 1st round. I sat behind the radar guns and he was 88-92 with more 88s and 89s than 91s and 92s. I started seeing reports of him being 90-94 later on and was shocked. His slider was also nothing too special and his changeup was more of a show me pitch. And I guess he had his good stuff that day because he posted a strong outing.
Anyways, this system looks pretty solid. If Nick Franklin is getting so much love after what he’s been doing in the Midwest League then why haven’t we heard more about Scooter Gennett? I know Gennett is just a 2Bman but Franklin will likely be one in the majors. I also realize Franklin has put more over the wall but Gennett is hitting .321 with 37 2Bs. Mighty impressive.
Good to see Maverick Lasker continue to develop well. Nice pickup in the 5th round by Milwaukee.
Weird
Because Jeffress is wondering about weed.
by King Billy Royal on Aug 12, 2010 12:09 AM EDT up reply actions
moved to pen
up to AA and has looked very good. All he ever had was a straight fastball and curve, so that was probably his final destination anyway.
He never picked up a change, and his attempts at gaining a 2 seemer were bad, but stick him in the 9th and let him throw 98-101 with that nasty hook and he’s lethal
scarpetta's been on an absolute tear
very, very encouraging. played against him as a kid and have always rooted for him. any brewers fans want to weigh in?
Seen reports
that he still has some command issues — and it shows up in his walk rate — but those observors says he’s taken a step forward over all and I’m a fan. 125 Ks and 3 homers allowed in 105 innings? I’d say that’s promising.
by blackoutyears on Aug 12, 2010 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Heckathorn-type Profile
Is Heckathorn of a certain type (plus stuff, less-than-stellar performance in college) that blossoms under professional tutelage? Or are there just as many busts as success stories for his ilk?
Garrett Richards is/was the same way
although I couldn’t answer the broader question
by Navi's_Navy on Aug 12, 2010 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions
He came out of college
with 2 professional level pitches, a fastball and slider
A guy can throw a change up but if its not even average or he cannot command it, its not really considered a pitch for the guy.
He’s getting by on sheer power right now against lower level competition. If he can develop an average changeup and refine his command, hes a starting pitcher then. He may even repeat the kinds of numbers he has right now in AA and AAA without a changeup, but he wont be able to get away with that in the major leagues.
Imo he still profiles as a bottom of the rotation starter or back of the bullpen relief pitcher. He’s miles away from a front line starting pitching prospect.
actually
according to BA’s low A best tools report, Heckathorn was voted as having the best changeup in the Mid-West league
by miraclemets on Aug 13, 2010 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Such an underrated system
Good to see the Crew is reloading, especially on the Pitching end. With the imminent trade of Fielder this offseason to accrue more ML-ready pitching (and inserting Gamel into the 1B role), this team has a bright future for years to come.
Escobar and Lucroy are both +WAR players – not worried about either of them at all. Plug Cain into CF next year and a lineup of:
Cain
Escobar
Weeks
Braun
Hart
McGehee
Gamel
Lucroy
looks pretty nice, actually.
you'd still have Escobar hitting 2nd? I couldn't justifiably put him anywhere but 8th I'd bet
although its a small quibble. Cain/Weeks/Hart/Braun/Gamel/McGehee/Lucroy/Escobar
by Navi's_Navy on Aug 12, 2010 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions
Arnett's problem...
is bad mechanics along with a lack of MLB level conditioning. If they can get him on a tough workout plan and let him get in shape then they can starter overhauling his mechanics, but until then he’s going to look like a bad pick. I was terrified the Cubs were interested in this guy at draft time and I’m glad we didn’t draft him…
Conditioning
Did Arnett fall into some bad habits after the draft because he was a backup on the IU basketball team in 2008-2009. He was in pretty darn good shape while in college.
not a Brewers fan
but I’ve seen a lot of Cubs-Brewers game this season. Escobar looks likes he needs more minors time, in my opinion. I’m willing to be persuaded to the contrary on these areas, but to my eyes his bat speed is lacking, he generates little power, and his arm in the field when I’ve seen him play has been inaccurate. The only plus tools I’ve seen him demonstrate are his foot speed/agility translating into good speed on the basepaths and range in the field. Batting eye seems just so-so. Cubs pitchers were getting him out by busting him inside where he doesn’t have the bat speed/strength to get around on the ball, and getting pop-ups and weak groundouts (looking at fangraphs, he’s popping out almost 17% of the time, so I guess other teams are doing the same thing.)
He seems to have plenty of potential, though, I’m just wondering whether some minors time would help with re-tooling his swing a bit (and maybe hitting the weights.)
John, I think it's worth noting that FanGraphs has a much higher WAR for Alcides Escobar so far
FanGraphs has him at 0.7 on the year, with a +0.2 UZR, compared to Rally’s WAR, which has him at -0.3 with a neutral TotalZone mark.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
how i'd grade out the Brewers system now....
Lawrie A-
Odorizzi B
A. Rivas B
Scarpetta B
Heckathorn B-
thats probably my top 5
Cain and LuCroy already graduates with Escobar and Gamel too lots of help on the way for milwaukee
If Carlos Gomez could net J.J. Hardy then Wilson Ramos should have netted at Least Matt Capps...
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Aug 12, 2010 4:28 PM EDT reply actions
Escobar has been as billed with exceptional defense
but booted some routine ones. I think it is more a matter of concentration and consistency than ability. He’s also been hitting in front of the pitcher. He really has some exceptional bat skills, but his patience waxes and wanes.
Kentrail Davis has struggled with minor leg problems supposedly and is healthier as of late.
Eric Farris had a leg injury that was described as similar to the one Cain had. He was back for a while and hitting, but now I think he’s had a few days off.
Logan Schafer I believe is hoped to be ready for Arizona Fall League.
Gamel
I am surprised they haven’t traded him to the AL where he can either play 1st or DH. Perhaps they are going to move Fielder in the offseason and give him the 1st base job.
by King Billy Royal on Aug 14, 2010 2:06 PM EDT reply actions
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