I decided to try my hand at this again after seeing a mini rush of sorts over the past few days. I think that I have a better handle on prospect value now than I did during my last effort. Here goes!
1) Mike Trout - I actually wanted to go another route for number one, but I had to cave. Trout has just performed too well, with the best scouting reports I've heard all year.
2) Julio Teheran - I think he has to be the best arm in the minors right now. He is adapting very well to AA thus far, and has performed admirably across three levels in a pretty aggressive season.
3) Eric Hosmer - Highly touted bat is really coming alive. He is showing great power now, amazing plate discipline, is stealing bases, and has a .341 BA. He is the total package right now, at least insofar as we are only counting his bat.
4) Jesus Montero - We know what we have here. An incredible bat with no real place to play. Great prospect, but with the defensive unknowns I can't put him any higher.
5) Dustin Ackley - Well...he's been consistent after his pitiful start. Though it is a SSS, his power is up a little bit in AAA. Assuming he sticks at second, he will be a very valuable building block for the Mariners.
6) Desmond Jennings - If his slugging percentage could have made it to the mid .450's again, he would be fighting for number one on this list.
7) Michael Pineda - Incredible stuff, and has been putting on a show in the high minors. Should be ready to help Seattle's rotation very soon.
8) Mike Moustakas - The widely documented home/road splits, and his poor start to AAA (k/bb) has given me a little concern. But, still has the ability to be a perennial all-star with one heck of a bat and a cannon at third.
9) Aroldis Chapman - The wild card. I could have put him 4 spots higher or 14 spots lower without batting an eyelash, but this felt about right given everything. Could be the NL Feliz, a dominant left handed starter, or walk his way into obscurity.
10) Wil Myers - The guy who makes 2-4 with a double boring. He has been better than advertised, and I didn't expect his k/bb to be this good this soon.
11) Michael Montgomery - Back from his injury and hasn't missed a beat. Will be fighting with Chapman for best LHP in the minors, at least until Chapman gets called up this month!
12) Aaron Hicks - As talented as anybody on the list, and getting a little warmer. I love seeing his stolen base % rising as the season progresses.
13) Zach Britton - His floor is as high as anybody's on this list. He could be a Carmona type arm at the very least right now. With a ceiling close to Webb's as well, this is a very exciting prospect for the Orioles.
14) Martin Perez - While we shouldn't worry too much about his AA struggles at this point, it may suggest that we were a little overzealous with pre-season rankings. He has a ton of talent, but so do a lot of other arms that are performing even better. He needs to get it going or he could drop a little more before the end of the year.
15) Matt Moore - Wow. He is making a lot of people (myself included) look silly. He has been unhittable since the break, while cutting his walks almost in half and seriously increasing his k's. His stuff is electric. Lucky lucky TB...
16) Shelby Miller - He has stepped past Matzek and Turner now. The Texan fireballer is mowing down a very talented MWL.
17) John Lamb - One of the biggest risers of the year. I'm interested to see if his improved control in A+ travels with him to NW Arkansas.
18) Brett Lawrie - Has done everything well, but hasn't truly dominated in any particular category. If he can cut the k's a bit he can be a stud.
19) Tyler Matzek - I'm not concerned about the disappearing few MPH - yet. But, the control has been unbelievably bad. Sounds like the second coming of Matt Moore at this point, and that isn't necessarily a bad thing (see above!).
20) Jordan Lyles - Still only 19, but isn't missing as many bats and has been relatively hittable. Still, only 19 in AAA. If it doesn't eat him alive he could move up a few spots.
21) Simon Castro - Let's forget the futures game, and a few earlier rankings putting him in the top 15 prospects in the minors. He is a very good arm. For the most part, his k's and ERA have both climbed as the season has progressed.
22) Randall Delgado - Good control, k's, and stuff. He looks like a pretty safe bet to be a low end 2 starter in the bigs.
23) Kyle Gibson - Very comparable to Britton, but I'll take the lefty with slightly better GB/FO ration at a higher level.
24) Nick Franklin - Second half tail-off hasn't been completely unexpected. He has still looked very good, and should be an above average MI in the bigs.
25) Jacob Turner - MWL has not been kind, but still has great stuff, and should level out as the season progresses.
26) Casey Kelly - Scouting reports have been racing ahead of his performance here, so I will split the difference and have him just out of the top 25. Still hasn't pitched a ton, and is in AA with great reports. If he keeps up the poor performance the rest of the year I might have to drop him a bit, though.
27) Brett Jackson - This might seem a little low, but I think he has been a little short of spectacular, and some are going overboard with ranking him!
28) Miquel Sano - Amazing reviews, and very good performance to this point - though the k's are a bit much. As talented as anybody outside of the top 15.
29) Grant Green - Another guy that people were souring on a bit prematurely. It is the Cal league, but a very respectable season nonetheless.
30) Chris Dwyer - God. The Royals hit the jackpot this year. A lefty with (reportedly) 3 plus pitches, and at least 2, Dwyer has gone from the Pioneer league to Double A in the past year.
31) Jarrod Parker - If he returns from TJ at anywhere close to his previous level, he will be a top 8 prospect by midseason next year.
32) Lonnie Chisenhall - Has hit a rough patch in August, but on the whole he has been great since coming back from his injury. Above average MLB third baseman. May hit an allstar once or twice.
33) Wilmer Flores - It has been curious to see him dominate A+ despite completely losing the ability to take a walk. If he can bring that number up again to anything bordering respectable, then he can be a top 25 prospect.
35) Kyle Drabek - Solid performance. I would be surprised if his BAA stayed that low with his mediocre K rate. I'd like to see a little more of the latter to help me rest comfortably in the former.
36) Dee Gordon - I still love his potential, and he hasn't been in the game too long to break out either. Average over .300 after the break is good to see.
37) Tanner Scheppers - Live arm, but can't seem to stick in the rotation. His stuff is top 10 quality, so if he can stay healthy and put it together, he could be a shut down reliever. May be able to transfer to the starting 5 down the road.
38) Alex Colome - Another great looking Rays arm. He has been terrible after the break, but has been great otherwise, and has high-end starter ability.
39) Arodys Vizcaino - Injury knocks him out of the top 25-28.
40) Brandon Belt - If I had more scouting information, he could be a lot higher. But, I'll play it safe. Nobody's performance, just strictly on numbers, has been more impressive. Showing he isn't a Cal league product so far.
41) Christian Friedrich - Another guy with top 30 stuff that has dropped a bit due to poor performance.
42) Jason Kipnis - Apparently AA is easier than A+. Could be a .300 15/15 2b.
43) Yonder Alonso - Been on fire lately, but still not hitting for enough power or drawing enough walks to be an elite prospect.
44) Alex White - Solid GB/FO. Not very hittable. Very good debut for White.
45) Jonathan Singleton - Despite the second half tail, he is looking like a very good first base prospect, and could be a high riser again next year. May not have a lot of room to grow, but he may not need it.
46) Jerry Sands - Another guy that I could use more scouting reports on. His BA has suffered in AA, but still one helluva year.
47) Zach Wheeler - Great stuff, tons of k's. I would like to see him back in the rotation again soon, though.
48) Engel Beltre - Has looked very good, and has good scouting reports, but the power/SB % aren't overwhelming.
49) Gary Sanchez - Huge talent, also putting up huge numbers so far. Another Montero type?
50) Devin Mesoraco - Has hit as well as any catcher other than Montero, and given his post HS scouting reports, this isn't unexpected.
Tell me what you think!