Top 20 San Francisco Giants 2010 Pre-Season Prospects in Review
by John Sickels on Aug 10, 2010 6:00 PM EDT
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2010 San Francisco Top 20 Prospects in Review
Here is a review of the 2010 Giants prospect list, originally published November 30, 2009. THIS IS A REVIEW OF THE OLD LIST AND PRE-SEASON GRADES. THIS IS NOT A NEW LIST. The 2011 list and new grades won't be ready until the season is over and I start writing the book.
1) Buster Posey, C, Grade A: .349/.442/.552 in Triple-A, .342/.389/.518 in the majors. I would say this qualifies as a successful debut.
2) Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Grade A-: 3.16 ERA, 59/22 K/BB in 83 innings, 88 hits in Triple-A. 3.20 ERA, 39/13 K/BB in 51 innings in the majors, 50 hits. Concerns about strikeouts/velocity have eased.
3) Thomas Neal, OF, Grade B: Warming up after a cold start, now hitting .295/.364/.439 for Double-A Richmond. Home park cuts into home run production.
4) Zack Wheeler, RHP, Grade B: 4.42 ERA, 45/25 K/BB, 2.59 GO/AO in 37 innings for Low-A Augusta. Needs to get the walks down and stay healthy, but K/IP and grounders are a strong combo.
5) Roger Kieschnick, OF, Grade B-: .251/.305/.368 for Richmond, on DL with back problems. Didn't show power on the road or at home. Plate discipline an issue.
6) Tommy Joseph, C, Grade B-: .233/.290/.403 for Augusta, 14 homers, 22 walks, 93 strikeouts in 352 at-bats. Power is interesting, needs to add polish, just 19.
7) Dan Runzler, LHP, Grade B-: 3.30 ERA, 32/19 K/BB in 30 innings, 27 hits for the Giants, 1.80 GO/AO. Needs to get the walks down but otherwise useful.
8) Waldis Joaquin, RHP, Grade B-: 3.04 ERA, 29/10 K/BB in 24 innings between Triple-A Fresno and AZL injury rehab. Hit hard in 4.2 major league innings. Will get more chances.
9) Jason Stoffel, RHP, Grade B-: 5.01 ERA, 55/16 K/BB in 41 innings for High-A San Jose, 43 hits, 1.48 GO/AO, 21 saves. I think he has the potential to improve a lot next year.
10) Francisco Peguero, OF, Grade B-: .314/.347/.477 for San Jose, 12 doubles, 14 triples, 37 steals, 16 walks, 70 strikeouts in 392 at-bats. Interesting mix of strengths and weaknesses.
11) Rafael Rodriguez, OF, Grade C+: .225/.276/.324 combined between Salem-Keizer and AZL Giants. Extremely raw tools guy, just 18.
12) Jose Casilla, RHP, Grade C+: 1.01 ERA, 35/14 K/BB in 45 innings for Augusta, 33 hits, 3.08 GO/AO. I love this profile.
13) Nick Noonan, 2B, Grade C+: .272/.316/.355 for Richmond, but this includes .322/.351/.411 mark in second half as bats on this team finally get going. Overall I'm not that impressed though; I think he ends up as a utility guy not a regular.
14) Aaron King, LHP, Grade C+: Got killed at San Jose, 7.57 ERA in 27 innings, 30/16 K/BB. Now at Salem-Keizer, pitching in relief, more control problems with 17 walks in 10 innings.
15) Henry Sosa, RHP, Grade C+: 3.84 ERA, 55/41 K/BB in 82 innings for Fresno, 71 hits but 13 homers allowed. Stock dropping, don't like the way his components are going.
16) Darren Ford, OF, Grade C+: .254/.318/.363 for Richmond, 31 steals, power limited. Hitting .337/.406/.453 in second half.
17) Clayton Tanner, LHP, Grade C+: 3.42 ERA, 64/48 K/BB in 124 innings for Richmond, 120 hits. 1.73 GO/AO, but I don't like the low strikeout rate.
18) Ehire Adrianza, SS, Grade C: .251/.329/.317 for San Jose, 26 steals. Not much of a bat, but defensive reviews are strong.
19) Conor Gillaspie, 3B, Grade C: Now up to .292/.341/.425 after a slow start for Richmond, includes .310/.356/.450 on the road. Shows more pop this year and defense has improved somewhat.
20) Brandon Crawford, SS, Grade C: .241/.337/.375 for Richmond, on DL with broken hand. Good defensive reviews.
21) Edwin Concepcion, RHP, Grade C: Egads, 7.42 ERA for Salem-Keizer, 40/32 K/BB in 44 innings, 45 hits. Serious control problems.
Giants fans have a lot to be happy about; Posey and Bumgarner have been great, and the bats at Richmond appear to be heating up. I'm not wild about the 2010 draft class though.
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I think the obvious question is how high is Belt going to be ranked next year.
Keep in mind, of course, that "the best defense of Derek Jeter's life" ranks somewhere in between "the best fiscal responsibility of Mike Tyson's life" and "the best not-getting-assassinated-ness of James Garfield's life." -FJM
I would rate him #1
Wheeler definitely has more upside, but he has a somewhat disappointing season (with the BB’s and the injury pushing to him a relief duty for a long stretch-he is going back to the rotation this weekend though).
Proud father of Mike Krukow (who is more than 3 times my age)
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Still cheering for Kevin Frandsen
John Bowker: One of the 3 best OF's on the Giants roster
Belt
If things continue for another couple of weeks, I think Belt will for sure be considered the Giants #1 prospect. The bigger threat is that he gets called up to the majors and gets over 130 plate appearances this year as what happened to Pablo Sandoval.
I could see it happening
Though I’d prefer he spend the rest of the year in AA
Proud father of Mike Krukow (who is more than 3 times my age)
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Still cheering for Kevin Frandsen
John Bowker: One of the 3 best OF's on the Giants roster
There's almost no way that happens
that seems pretty unlikely as he’d have to average nearly 3 plate appearances per game starting today. Belt being called up anytime in the very near future (next week or two) appears to be extremely unlikely so even if he’s called up at the end of August he’d have to almost take over a full time role. Sandoval got his late season plate appearances on a rebuilding team, not a team in the middle of a playoff race.
Thing A
"Correlation between inability to use the reply button and general crappiness of analysis: pretty high." -Sleepy Freud
Potential Belt Callup
Of course you are right. There would have to be an injury (knock on wood) and he would have to immediately outperform Schierholtz and Ishikawa.
He’s had the cracked fingernail to deal with, though. I am a bit concerned about his walk rate, but young pitchers aren’t exactly known for their pinpoint control; that’s why we were all so high on Alderson despite his mediocre stuff, because he could throw the ball where he wanted.
Belt’s still #1, though, unless he falls off a cliff. I mean literally falls off a cliff.
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to do that (TM)
Yeah he's had some bright spots
I mean his 2.59 GO/AO is really promising as are the K’s. He’s still easily the #2 prospect but I think Belt has jumped him
Proud father of Mike Krukow (who is more than 3 times my age)
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Still cheering for Kevin Frandsen
John Bowker: One of the 3 best OF's on the Giants roster
I wouldn't
He’d definitely be behind Zach Wheeler and Gary Brown for me.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
by Jeff Reese on Aug 10, 2010 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Why?
Belt’s had one of the best seasons of anyone in the minors this year. Wheeler, on the other hand, has showed some promise but lost most of the year with the cracked nail. And isn’t Gary Brown supposed to have no plate discipline at all?
The very bad man who traded my first son non-tendered my replacement son. F*ck you Brian Sabean. Leave my children alone.
Belt
I’m just not sold yet that his power is for real. I could see a James Loney type of career out of him. The missed time for Wheeler doesn’t bother me at all, and he could be special. I’d much rather bet on that ceiling.
I addressed Brown below.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
A James Loney type career? That would be the best 1B we’ve had since McCovey!
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
you forgot Buster!
For the thirteen time in 3 or one evers, I found myself toothlessly thinking about Manny Ramirez.
Will Clark says "ahem."
"I don’t think I’ve ever heard a louder chorus of boos than when the Dodgers made the third out of the ninth. It was awesome.." - Aubrey Huff
Sorry, Will. Nothing personal. I just, uh, you know, sort of, well, you know … forgot about you.
/runs away and hides
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
except Will Clark
Neal before Zod!
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by nostocksjustbonds on Aug 11, 2010 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Gary Brown?!?!
Wheeler has some logic, although I would disagree, but seriously a CF who didn’t walk in college, has zero professional experience, and was picked much higher than most analysts projected is better than a guy who’s raked at every professional level he’s played at? That’s crazy-talk.
So optimistic I fart sunshine and rainbows.
Giants Front Office....Torture!
by Giant Torture on Aug 11, 2010 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Didn't walk isn't fair
The guy hit .438. You’re not going to walk a lot with an average that high, simply because you’re getting a lot of good pitches to hit and hitting them. Or maybe you’re Pablo Sandoval. Neither of those are bad options in my view. And I think Brown did post a decent walk rate when he played summer league ball with wood bats against tougher competition. He can walk, he just didn’t, because he could get hits instead.
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to do that (TM)
So...
I guess Ted Williams hit .406 by luck since he drew 147 walks that year? Also, being Pablo Sandoval circa 2009 very good, 2010 not so good, but the big difference there would be power. More importantly though, he hasn’t proven anything and Belt has. If Brown hits .370 next year than maybe, but a 1B who plays great defense and can hit for average and power is much more valuable than a CF who plays great defense and might be able to hit for average and steal bases.
So optimistic I fart sunshine and rainbows.
Giants Front Office....Torture!
by Giant Torture on Aug 11, 2010 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Williams posted a ridiculously high BABIP that year. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see he posted a high LD% and HR/FB rate.
Of course, Gary Brown ain’t no Ted Williams. I’m saying that if an above-average (not godly) hitter can and does hit .440 like he did, they’re probably swinging at a whole lot of pitches and putting nearly everything in play. This means you’re not going to walk or strike out much, and he didn’t.
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to do that (TM)
"was picked much higher than most analysts projected"
No, he wasn’t; BA ranked him 14th, PGCC ranked him 19th and Andy Seiler ranked him 35th while giving him a 1B2 grade. So, he was picked higher than one analysts raw rankings by 11 spots. He has a couple of big tools, and the lack of walks is way overblown here. I will most certainly take him over a first baseman with questionable (at least for me) power.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
Wheeler I can understand
but why would you have Brown ahead of him?
Proud father of Mike Krukow (who is more than 3 times my age)
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Still cheering for Kevin Frandsen
John Bowker: One of the 3 best OF's on the Giants roster
Brown
He has elite speed and defense to go along with a pretty damn good hit tool and gap power. No, he did not walk much at Cal St Fullerton, but he struck out just as infrequently. It would be great if he developed some patience, but he offers enough to make up for it.
http://bullpenbanter.com/
Wheeler #1 for me I think...
Belt still probably #2… but he’s going to be pretty far down my top 100. I’m not convinced he’s any kind of special prospect… but I am convinced he can hit.
Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor
you’re convinced he can hit… and every report indicates he’s already an above average fielder…. but you still have him way down on your top 100?
Thing A
"Correlation between inability to use the reply button and general crappiness of analysis: pretty high." -Sleepy Freud
Life is just that difficult for a 1B prospect.
He needs to not just hit, but be one of the better hitters in the league to even have a shot at being above average for his position.
Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor
He could be the minor league player of the year?
How is that not being one of the better hitters in the league?
So optimistic I fart sunshine and rainbows.
Giants Front Office....Torture!
by Giant Torture on Aug 16, 2010 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't care if he's the best hitter in the PCL or the TL
I still can’t project him as one of the best hitters in MLB. That’s what I care about.
Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor
Plate discipline an issue.
Sounds like Roger Kieschnick is ready to play for the Giants right now.
"Dodger fans aren’t happy when foul balls get into their section, because it interferes with their playing with the beachball"- Mike Krukow
Nah
He’s not really old enough for Sabean to give a moronic contract to.
Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor
But
He could easily be called up to sit on the bench ala Buster Posey circa 2009.
So optimistic I fart sunshine and rainbows.
Giants Front Office....Torture!
by Giant Torture on Aug 16, 2010 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Ford and Noonan seem to be strong 2nd half players
both of them struggled in the 1st half in SJ last year, and then got hot in the 2nd half. I think one guy who jumps into the top 10 is Jorge Bucardo. He was the ace of the Augusta rotation and recently got promoted to San Jose.
Eric Surkamp is close to the top 10 as well IMO.
I was really disappointed with Crawford’s injury as I had high hopes for him in the 2nd half.
Proud father of Mike Krukow (who is more than 3 times my age)
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Still cheering for Kevin Frandsen
John Bowker: One of the 3 best OF's on the Giants roster
I’m with you on Bucardo. Fabulous in A- this year. I’d love to see this org keep pumping out young star arms, especially since no one else can do it. Gives us a lot of trade leverage.
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to do that (TM)
Bucardo
There’s no excuse he wasn’t on this year’ list. It just shows the bias against sinkerballers that don’t have mid-90s velocity and gaudy K-rates. How could anybody ignore the fact that he put up a 2.41 GO/AO ratio, along with other very nice peripheral stats, in 81 innings as a 19 year old in the hitter-happy NWL last year?
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Because it's not uncommon
for sinker/command guys to post gaudy gaudy numbers at low levels where they can get inexperienced hitters to swing at pitchers’ pitches, and then hit a wall when they advance to face hitters who force them to throw a hitters’ pitch. Wanting to see him produce informative results before listing him is plenty excusable.
(Were you on the “Why does Adam Cowart get no love???” train a few years ago?)
by realitypolice on Aug 11, 2010 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions
That bias isn’t exactly unfounded. There are so few successful SP in the major leagues that didn’t have at least average to above average fastballs when they first came up that they’re really the exceptions that prove the rule. Especially as a RHP, you really have to be predicting an outlier career to expect somebody to make it as a big leaguer with a below average fastball coming up through the minors (and predicting outliers is pretty much a losing proposition).
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
Of course there was/is an excuse.
Like RP and Roger mentioned, Bucardo’s prospect status is more results-driven than top-line potential. He’s a small-frame pitcher with an average fastball and decent-good secondary offerings. He’s always going to be fighting an uphill battle against scouting biases based on those two qualities alone.
It's not just overcoming a bias
It’s that you have to do something that’s remarkably hard to do… get guys who are the world’s very, very, very best at hitting a baseball to fail to do so effectively about 77 percent of the time.
by realitypolice on Aug 11, 2010 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I would like to see Tommy Joseph polished into 35+ HR type of hitter.
Tommy Joseph is the Dingerzball Wizard
i'd like to see Rowdy Hardy's fastball add 15 MPH
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
by doublestix on Aug 10, 2010 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'd like to see Cesar Crespo win an MVP award
by RedSoxFaithful on Aug 10, 2010 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
-1
I deduct points from you for referencing the Cesar Crespo era and making me throw up all over my keyboard
-1 and only member of the Nick Weglarz fan club!
Rodriguez
How confident are you in him figuring it out?
by mattp31 on Aug 10, 2010 7:40 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Not at all
He has exhibited almost no growth, and very little of the coordination and athleticism he’ll need to be something other than a DH. I’d say that there’s about a 85% probability he ends up an expensive bust. In general, I’ll be happier if the Giants sign 5 Caribbean prospects for $500K each than 1 guy for $2.5M.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
agree
Yeah I agree with Fla-Giant on this one. Not confident in Rodriguez at all.
by John Sickels on Aug 10, 2010 8:57 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s amazing how you can go from an extremely top-heavy list to an extremely bottom-heavy one with just 2 promotions. Next year the vast majority of new people that populate this list will be at A ball or below.
I think it’s pretty clear that Posey, MadBum, and Runzler will not be eligible for next year’s list, that Kiescnick and Noonan should take a big fall down it, and that RafRod, King, Sosa, Tanner, Gillaspie, and Concepcion should fall off of it completely, IMO.
That opens up about 9 spots for newly-drafted prospects like Gary Brown (should be in top 4), Jarrett Parker (top 10), Mike Kickham (top 12), Seth Rosin, Heath Hembree, Dan Burkhart, and Austin Southall (if he signs), and current system prospects, Brandon Belt (#1), Jorge Bucardo (top 7), Craig Westcott, Eric Surkamp, Chuckie Jones, JC Perez, Hector Sanchez, and Charlie Culberson.
I also think that the opinion of this year’s draft will be bumped up once we see how many of the later-round, high-upside draftees that the Giants end up signing in the next 6 days. Specifically, I’m referring to kids like Austin Southall, Alec Asher, Tommy Tremblay, Jake McCasland, Jake Sisco, Greg Greve and Caleb Hougesen. I’m not predicting they’ll sign all of them, but I think they’ll get at least 3 of them.
Finally, there’s 1 small error in the current list. It’s Edward Concepcion, not Edwin.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Don't write off the old guys yet
Some of the Richmond crew has been heating up and may save some of their lofty prospect status. Main was a “B” grade prospect for Texas and Correa was formerly pretty highly ranked for Florida before getting traded and injured. I’m also curious to see how people view Tyler Graham after the season if he continues to get on base and steal bases.
I forgot about Main
I’d put him in the top 20 for next year, but not in the top 10.
Correa needs to prove himself and improve his consistency for another year at a higher level for me to even think about putting him in the top 20. This year he’s been barely above-average as a 22 year old in low-A ball – not promising for a guy in his 5th season of pro ball even after cutting him slack for the 2008 operation and the 2009 rehab.
Graham could be a fringe 4/5th outfielder in the majors, and possibly a nice pinch-hitter/pinch-runner/defensive replacement option. However, his utter lack of power (ISO=.063) and inablility to draw walks (BB-rate=6.2%) will make it difficult for him to keep a decent OBP and AVG in the pros.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Austin Southall
Could turn out to be the gem of this draft, IMO, if he’s signed. Not only does he seem to have the physical tools, but also the make-up or intangibles that I think could make him an excellent pitcher. I don’t expect a ton from Gary Brown or Jarrett Parker.
So optimistic I fart sunshine and rainbows.
Giants Front Office....Torture!
by Giant Torture on Aug 11, 2010 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Zack Wheeler
0 HRs allowed in 36.2 IP. Nice K rate and GB rate. If he gets his BB rate under control, look out!!! He hasn’t made a start in nearly 3 months, and I’m beginning to wonder where he’s going to start in 2011.
by TimLaser and MattyC on Aug 10, 2010 8:57 PM EDT reply actions
He should start on Friday or Saturday
Proud father of Mike Krukow (who is more than 3 times my age)
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Still cheering for Kevin Frandsen
John Bowker: One of the 3 best OF's on the Giants roster
by Gobroks on Aug 10, 2010 9:11 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Word is he's starting tomorrow (Wednesday) night
The Giants have been treating him with kid gloves since he split his fingernail very badly about 2.5 months ago. It will be nice if he can get in 3 starts before the Augusta season ends, although I’m sure that he’ll be on a strict pitch count (maybe as low as 50?). They may be thinking of having him pitch in AZ in the fall again this year. I’ve got to assume that they start him off in San Jose next year, barring any recurrence of the fingernail issue, because the Giants have been very consistent at moving their high draft picks to the next level every year whether or not their overall play the previous year seemed to justify the promotion.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I was wrong
He won’t start until Saturday or Sunday, as Gobroks noted. That means he almost surely will only get in 2 more starts before the season ends.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
He'll start in San Jose
The Giants seem to promote prospects regardless of what type of year they have almost as a rule, so I’d be shocked if he’s back in Augusta.
So optimistic I fart sunshine and rainbows.
Giants Front Office....Torture!
by Giant Torture on Aug 11, 2010 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions
SF Giants Prospects Meet The MeatGrinder And Get Chewed Up
2010 has been a rough season for many of the prospects at AA. With most of the talent from AAA already in the CIty and AA players struggling it has been a long season.
Some pleasant surprises are Brandon Belt, Jorge Bucardo, Charlie Culberson and Nick Nooner is holding his own.
Neal and Gillaspie both look like they’re going to end the season having had pretty successful campaigns, given the environment of the EL. Neal’s raised his OPS over .800 finally, one of only 21 players in the league currently at that level. And of those 21, there’s more a few non-prospect AA vet types.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
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