Madison Bumgarner Crystal Ball

What are you talking about?

BRIGADE MAN: YOU MAY NOT BE HUMAN

are you being serious?

but not over a period of seasons. . . i also don’t believe madison’s minor league home run rate is luck either. Hiws Homer rate, walks, hits allowed and strikouts (which is 8.0 per 9, good) are all peripherals and they are all good – instead all that gets focusaed on by some is his ERA, and supposedly low Ks.

Generally, it can be fluky but, it is trotted out EVERY time someone has a good H/Innings rate and doesn’t have high Ks and a high Gb rate and that just isn’t accurate. This is going to be especially true for someone like matt Cain and Now, Bumgarner.

I didn’t mean to imply he’d be Hudson in every way, but I felt his surface stats could resemble Hudson’s. The GB rates may be different or whatever, but like I said, I’m waiting for MadBum to actually fail at a level, regardless of how he finds success. And I’m talking more about WHIP than anything else.

He gets a Maddux comp for having great command, but average K rates. Again, I’m looking more at statistical comps than stuff comps.

No offense but, you act as though you have pitching figured out except tghere are LOTS of pitchers who have Hudson’s sucess and are totall flyball pitchers (Garza, Josh Jognson, Jared Weaver + countless ones through history). . . and Madison right now isn’t even one! He’s pretty nuetral. There are SO many pitchers with Bum’s Gb/Fb ratio who are sucessful that it isn’t even worth mentioning on your end dude. He gets plenty of grounders + average amount of Ks + plus has the ABILITY to keep the ball in the park + is going to pitch in a park that plays to that ability.

If that isn’t a recipe for sucess, I don’t know what is!

vs other prospects. If he stays healthy, and follows the career path you describe below, that’d definitely be considered a failure for someone who was a top 10-25 prospect and broke the majors at 20.

If I were to suggest Stanton or Alvarez would become Rob Deer, I’m sure I’d be met with the same incredulity by the community.

Or I consider Kendrick to be a failure to this point in his career. Much more was expected from the guy, he was ranked accordingly, and has failed to meet expectation.

There’s a certain expectation that comes with top prospects, and if they end up being anything other than above average, then that’s generally considered being a failed prospect.

If you like his predictions, your opinions are valid, but if you disagree with them, go away? Why is Satchel not allowed to post his opinions (which I agree with wholeheartedly, by the way)? A FanPost is supposed to be a discussion built out of a single post’s content, and this discussion wouldn’t be about Bumgarner’s projected stat-line if casejud hadn’t posted projections. By doing so he basically opened the door for the discussion to revolve around his projections. And I agree with Satchel that they are overly silly…something like Scott Baker would be a much better comp statistically, IMO.

At no point did I really mock anything he was saying; I’m merely arguing that this entire exercise is, as others have labeled it, futile.

We’re talking about predicting something that’s unpredictable. I’ll start putting up posts on here for Crystal Balls for guys that we’ve never even heard of yet, and they would be just as accurate as these things.

My Crystal Ball for Alberto Rasmalfussen for 2021-2032 will be just as accurate as this. I think it’s mind-blowing to go around predicting 181 wins for a guy 4 wins. People are actually arguing this stuff as if it could actually happen, but at this point it’s an absolute long-shot with minimal chance of happening regardless of what you think about Bumgarner.

I have no problem with casejud or anyone else; it just frustrates me to watch some generally pretty educated baseball fans go out and act as if this kind of thing is really useful at all whatsoever.

I don’t know why people are seeing this as an attack or anything; I’m merely presenting forward the idea that this entire exercise is based on predicting the unpredictable, and it should never, ever be treated like it could have any ounce of accuracy going forward.

There are people on this post acting as if this could actually happen. And it could. But the world could end in 2012, too. Things just happen, and things like predicting a pitcher to win nearly 200 games really can’t be done with the data we have.

i agree with much of what you say here BUT, the last part … just because something, say predicting a young pitchers career totals, is extremely unreliable, has many variables and pitfals that make it difficult, etc, etc – doesn’t make it futile! I, for instance, don’t thi9nk so.

While I did make this here CB with some fun in drifting off amd daydreaming about baseball, and the future in generall – I DO, seriously believe this is how good of a pitcher Mad will turn out to be. I’m not using the word “fun” to back away from the seriouslness of the prediction, such as these things are.

i didn’t mean to infer you gave the cb zero thought. i’m suspecting that the broader message is that you really love madbum and are extremely bullish on him carving out a very, very nice career.

good on ya!