Draft Thoughts
by ADLC on Jul 9, 2010 12:11 AM EDT
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While looking at some of the draft signings (and the majority of unsigned high picks) and I had a question/thought. With next years draft expected to be the deepest in years, what incentive do teams in the lower half of the first round to sign their picks? Assuming that the same pick next year will have increased value wouldn't the smart strategy be to play hardball with this years pick, hope they don't sign (or sign cheaply) and get the same pick next year?
As far as I know there isn't really a way for the commish for force teams to sign their picks, and I could see 3-4 teams that were unhappy with who they wound up with do so. (Culver and Biddle for example).
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Next year’s pick would be unprotected, so no, thats not a smart idea because it handcuffs you into picking a player you absolutely know will sign.
Yes
You do not pick a player planning not to sign him. The pick next year is an OK back up plan if you cannot, but it will not be a prospect as good the original (even in a much deeper draft class).
I thought of that on draft day
As an Astros fan, I was very disappointed in taking DDJ so high. I’ve grown to like DDJ more (if he signs) and would still be ok with it if he doesn’t sign for that very reason. But as metafour says, it really does handcuff you next year so that you have to be very conservative with that pick. Not to mention, the Astros draft budget would have to be increased approximately 2 million dollars if not more since they will likely have a top 5 pick (or at least close to it) and the #9. Although that money would be pretty much saved from this year, but still.
You should never punt a draft pick, especially in an early round
The pick you’ll get in the following draft is unprotected, so you’ll have so little leverage in terms of signing your player that you almost have to take a lesser talent in order to ensure that he’ll sign for slot.
The following draft would have to be almost impossibly stacked for punting picks in the preceding draft to be a good idea. And that’s without factoring in the lost development time and the fact that assets in the present are always more valuable than assets in the future.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
just fyi
Biddle and Culver have signed and are already playing in the GCL.
I know, just pulled two reaches out of my bum
This was a more intellectual exercise then anything, but I obviously didn’t spark the conversation I had hoped.
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