What's with the Wilson Ramos love?
by dougdirt on Jul 7, 2010 1:15 PM EDT
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PrintWith all of the Cliff Lee trade talk and the Twins being the 'front runners' for the acquisition, I continue to hear Wilson Ramos brought up as the center piece to the deal. How on Earth is a catcher with terrible plate discipline who is hitting .204/.240/.313 the center piece of a trade for the team that is considered the 'front runner'? Ramos has never had a good season offensively in the minors. He hasn't been bad in the past, but he also has never OPS'd .800 at any level either. What am I missing here? I just can't grasp how this guy is a good to very good prospect at this point. He is a little young for his level, but he is completely overmatched by AAA pitchers.
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I understand why everyone would like him
But i don’t understand why everyone overrates him.
…they should send down Huntington & Nutting, because they aren’t ready, either. - royshowell
He hit .296 in like 6 games worth of PAs in the majors
Casual fans and shitty media analysts that don’t pay attention to OBP hear that he’s a “top catching prospect blocked by Mauer”, see the .300-ish Major League average and assume he’s ready.
What "love"?
This is a pet peeve of mine but is a mention of a player in a rumor really “love”?
It’s a rumor – it’s by nature imprecise so why are you getting hung up on whether he’s the “centerpiece” or not?
Objectively, Ramos has some value. We should be arguing about how much, not getting caught up in semantics.
Also
When the mainstream media talks prospects, they almost always get it wrong. Let it go.
by FI2 on Jul 7, 2010 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions
This
When I hear Peter Gammons talk about Ramos as being a STUD that is blocked by Mauer…. things like that.
Multiple people
On this site and others have suggested that Ramos/Hicks are too much for Lee. and in other post I have seen Ramos listed as a future top 10 catcher.
Because they saw his name on some top 100 lists before the season and then he had a hit in like his first 6 at bats in the majors or something.
And now they are holding onto that for dear life.
Ramos
Will not be the centerpiece but would be a solid 2nd prospect if pair with Hicks. Ramos has upside but is obviously having a down year. But he has shown he can hit in the past and he has a very strong arm. All reports I have read says he is a solid defensive catcher which holds alot of value (see Yadi Molina). He won’t win any batting titles but I personally think he will hit for a decent avg and show above avg power for a catcher.
To conclude I think some are uneducated on most prospects and catch a tidbit here or there…and they will say Ramos is the centerpiece. But in reality the people shooting his value way down are doing the same. Don’t evaluate him just on some offensive stats for this year and forget what he has done and taking a look at his true scouting report and definitely don’t overlook his defensive value.
He should be a valuable major leaguer, based on being a good defender and having some offensive capability...
…but I agree, the ceiling is fairly limited here… Ramos has some serious flaws in his game.
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Above-average defensive catchers with a history of solid hitting don't grow on trees
He’s also been tremendously unlucky this season in terms of BABIP.
Ramos is a catcher who has consistently shown good (and occasionally elite) contact skills, good power, good defense, and good statistical performances, despite being quite young relative to his level of competition all the way up the chain. He projects as not only a starting catcher, but one of the best two-way players at the position. He can also step in and play in the majors right now. His overall package isn’t tremendously exciting; he doesn’t have any tools or skills that jump off the page, but he has a lot of value.
People are also making a huge deal out of a half-season of subpar play. This is a guy who took on the AA transition at age 21 and cut his strikeout rate to 11%. He has a plus bat for a catcher and he’s more than a solid defender. That kind of package doesn’t come on the trade market very often.
With graduations and a some slippage for his current performance, he’s still probably a top fifty prospect.
Value-wise, he’s not that much different from the “centerpiece” of the Lee-to-Philly deal (Seattle got Lee at such a cheap cost that I’m not sure that deal is even worth comparing). Carlos Carrasco was a prospect in the 50-60 range coming off of a disappointing season in AAA. Marson and Donald were high-floor players at the back-end of some top 100 lists. Knapp was a fairly high-profile live arm guy. With the way that teams are currently valuing their prospects, I’d think that the Mariners would be ecstatic to get four similarly valuable players for Lee.
The Twins equivalent would probably be something like Ramos, Ben Revere, Joe Benson, and Adrian Salcedo. I have a really hard time believing that any team would give up four such prospects for a half-season of Lee instead of 1.5 years of control, but I could be wrong. I also think that the Mariners are in a tougher spot than the Indians because they really have to trade Lee. The Indians had two whole offseasons and two whole trade deadlines left to find the best possible deal for Lee. Teams know that the Mariners have to deal now or be stuck with two compensatory picks, and that means a lot more players and packages will be off the table unless someone blinks hard.
Of course, whether or not Ramos is the centerpiece for Cliff Lee depends on two things that don’t really have anything to do with how good Ramos is: What Seattle wants and who else is offered.
I think you are overrating what the Indians got
The shine of guys like Carrasco, Marson and Donald had faded significantly at the time of the trade. I believe Knapp was considered the best piece they received by many.
True, Knapp was the centerpiece of the deal.
The shine of Carrasco/Marson/Donald had faded at the time of the deal, but it’s since faded even more. I didn’t think Shapiro pulled off the best deal in the world by any means, but I thought he was wise, in a way, to “buy low” on all of Carrasco, Marson and Donald — each of whom were legit Top 100 prospects the year before. It obviously didn’t work out at all, but it was an okay (but not terrible) package at the time.
Hmmm
He projects as not only a starting catcher, but one of the best two-way players at the position. He can also step in and play in the majors right now.
So a guy who can’t OPS .600 in AAA can step into the majors today and play? Sure, he could play, but I bet he would absolutely suck.
I also question whether he can be a two way player. Defensively, I like what I hear/see. Offensively, he has worse than a 5.00 K/BB rate. Guys like that don’t hit in the majors. They simply don’t. He must improve that rate by quite a bit. Guys at 4.00 don’t make it. He needs to be around 3.00 to have a good chance.
+1
Part of the question is what does “centerpiece” mean. If it’s Ramos and spare parts, then it won’t be a lot. If, however, it’s Ramos and three other prospects who aren’t significantly worse than him (as in your example), then that could be a very generous haul,
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Two weeks ago people are talking about "Ramos and filler" and that never made any sense to me.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jul 7, 2010 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions
actually makes pretty good sense to me when you consider 2 months of Cliff Lee who is 32-33 yrs old.
Wow Blackburn makes nearly identical money as Baker does now....
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jul 7, 2010 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Sorry for being nitpicky, but if it’s a 2 month rental, it doesn’t much matter how old Cliff Lee is, does it?
He's 31 years old, so its pretty clear that this Cy Young season is a mirage.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jul 7, 2010 7:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I still think the overwhelming factor that will drive down his return is still that he's going to be a very tough sign.
He scared off the Phillies… how many teams can actually afford to re-sign Lee?
This is what held the Johan Santana return down as well. You can’t just ignore this. For ~23+ teams he’s just a rental.
Now, some of those 23 are competing and fine with renting Lee (he’s damn good)… but it still mitigates what they’d be willing to give up knowing they can’t resign him.
For the teams that CAN afford Lee they will be reluctant to give up top prospects AND then have to give Lee a megadeal. Especially knowing they can just sign him in November.
Top pitchers who are impending free agents just aren’t bringing the kind of returns people imagine, nor have they been for years now. You can say “oh, a bidding war will drive up the price” but how realistic is a bidding war given the costs here? & even if there is… this is going to boost the back end of the deal from fringe/org filler guys to interesting C+ kind of guys. A bidding war isn’t going to upgrade the package to 3 top 100 guys. GMs are aware how much value that represents these days.
I understand M’s fans are upset about their season and this is the major source of interest right now… I just really do think they’re going to be disappointed. They got Lee for half a season and they’’ll get more than they gave up for him (Amaro isn’t a very good GM)… but this isn’t going to be some great score of stud prospects. Once it happens I guarantee every M’s fan rationalizes it and turns out happy with what they got even though it fell far short of their expectations (and they should be happy).
Of course, it only takes one bad GM to overpay… and guessing trade returns is a fool’s errand… I’m just not seeing teams giving up the farm for Lee. Sox and Rays have plenty of pitching. Yanks arguably do and have been adamant they don’t want to give up top prospects and pay Lee. Rangers can’t afford it. Lots of other contenders don’t have the pieces or money… or in many cases, Lee represents a significant upgrade but isn’t the most pressing issue for the team…
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by alskor on Jul 7, 2010 9:08 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Of course, CC was strictly a rental back in 2008, and he still netted the Indians a nice pair of prospects… but I think that’s realistically the ceiling of what the Mariners can hope for. Lee won’t go for a bucket of balls, but he’s not going to command as much as many Mariners fans think.
That said, I’m already preparing to be sick to my stomach knowing that Jack Z will get back more than Amaro did.
+1
Fans expect the kind of return a top flight pitcher would get for years of control, without really thinking that while he is an amazing pitcher, he can only do so much in 2 months, and then he is gone…
by lakersdodgersyankees4life on Jul 8, 2010 1:53 AM EDT up reply actions
-1
I’m loving the argument from people that basically goes “You aren’t going to get what you expect to get for Lee, you’re going to be disappointed” followed by “Of course, some GM could overpay”
Basically its like saying “Well, I’m right. But if I’m wrong, its the GM’s fault, not mine”
Do you think I’m arguing for what Cliff Lee is worth, or what the Mariners will get from him? I’m arguing what they’ll get from him, I could care less what he’s “worth”
Sickels said he’d consider Hicks and Ramos and Sickels has no interest in being a bad GM. He’s got no reason to say that he’d do the deal other than he thinks its fair.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jul 8, 2010 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
This sounds like what everybody is doing regarding LeBron
I’m pretty sure all the major basketball writers have predicted he’d go to each team. That way they can all go “look, I was right!”
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by thejd44 on Jul 8, 2010 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s not so much about being right or wrong as it is gauging the current market and past similar deals and seeing that the kinds of deals that Mariners fans are drooling over just aren’t happening much recently. The caveat is that, in the right situation and with the right GM, it could certainly happen this team. That’s why it’s an interesting situation to watch.
My point is that you've probably got at least, at LEAST, 5 GM's who seriously want this guy. I'm liking the odds that one of them will overpay.
I’m not saying its not an overpay if the Mariners got a player like Justin Smoak or Aaron Hicks and Wilson Ramos.. I’m just saying that I feel likely that whoever comes over in a Cliff Lee deal will be better than your typical rental package. Its going to CRUSH the deal that Amaro got for him.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jul 8, 2010 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions
My point is that there have been several very desirable players available at the deadline in recent years, and very few teams that have overpaid for those players in a way that you seem to be describing. There is nothing drastically different about the Cliff Lee situation this year compared to Sabathia, Teixeira, Beltran, etc. What the M’s get will likely be similar.
You're right, two months of Cliff Lee isn't worth much.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jul 9, 2010 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I know you didn't respond to me...
but let me say again: I was wrong. They got more than I thought… though not exactly a blockbuster package. A top prospect., an interesting player and filler… what I expected but the top prospect was much better than I thought it would be. Another great move by Jack Z.
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I don’t think anyone in the know was suggesting that Ramos and true organizational filler would get it done. In this market, I don’t see how the Mariners could get four guys as good as the ones I listed above for a half-year of Lee unless another GM really panics. If I were the Twins, I’d be offering Ramos and whichever one I liked less of Morales and Revere, plus a lotto ticket low-minors type. I’d be prepared to ramp up that package if it’s not enough, but I wouldn’t be going crazy to make anyone better than Revere the second-best prospect in the deal. In the end, I think the M’s will get a nice haul for Lee (and I think that Ramos, Revere, and a low minors type would be a nice haul). But it will probably be disappointing to some fans, as these deals usually are.
I'm very confident that this deal will be better than Ramos, Revere, "lotto ticket"
Can’t wait to find out.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jul 7, 2010 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Part of it goes back to spring training from this year and in the Winter Leagues the previous 2 years
Ramos was on fire….
He’s drawn Pudge Rodriguez comps. from more than 1 scout… (withless OB% skills i might add, but quite possibly even better defense)
The guy is an absolute MONSTER at throwing base-runners out… and He Blocks balls clearly, in my view, better than Joe Mauer and (I saw several spring training game from Minny this year)
When Ramos is 24 2 years from now and finally figures it all out, in AAA i can see him in the big leagues producing year in and year out .270/340/440 lines thats an .775-785 OPS…
and being one of the top 5-10 defensive catchers in all of baseball that has a stick!
I won’t argue right now, his plate discipline is lacking….
Wow Blackburn makes nearly identical money as Baker does now....
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jul 7, 2010 5:23 PM EDT reply actions
considering i was refrencing pudge, You're right....
and also maybe a .340 OB% is a little optimistic
but in his prime or career year(s) i could see it
Wow Blackburn makes nearly identical money as Baker does now....
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jul 7, 2010 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Historically has Pudge been good defensively or good at calling fastballs so he can throw out all the guys trying to steal?
Did/does he rank well at the other aspects of catching?
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by thejd44 on Jul 8, 2010 12:40 AM EDT up reply actions
Historically
He was always considered to be one of the very best ever at throwing out would-be basestealers. Maybe #1… though tough to argue against Bench. Pudge’s footwork as a catcher is likely the best ever. Its what drove the great CS%. His feet are lightning quick and he gets in a throwing motion incredibly fast. He also has a very strong arm so it resulted in crazy good POP times. His blocking and receiving are also good.
However, there has from time to time been much criticism of his game calling… or at least there used to be. Haven’t heard it in a while. Back with Texas IIRC, there was some humbug about him calling only fastballs in counts where guys might steal b/c he was so concerned with keeping his CS% up there. Fwiw.
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Oh wow... totally misread your tongue in cheek question
See you’re already aware of his rep. Sorry!
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Yeah, I was taking a jab at him...or at least that perception
But I was seriously asking about blocking balls, positioning on plays at the plate (not that this is a significant thing), calling a game (as subjective as that may be).
I always had the perception of Pudge as “great arm,” but never really heard about the rest of his defensive skills.
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by thejd44 on Jul 8, 2010 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions
minus game calling,
Pudge was the ultimate catcher. His game calling has always been questionable because he has the flair for the dramatic (throwing out runners) rather than helping the pitcher set up hitters.
I agree with Alskor in that his footwork has always been great. When he was younger, he was better a moving around the plate and blocking balls, but you’re expected to lose parts of your game as you age. I’ve always been impressed with his receiving skills.
However, with everything that is good, his game calling has not always made sense to me.
"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree
Agreed, dougdirt.
Ramos is a nice prospect at a tough position to fill, but I’ve never been a huge fan of his — or, at least, his bat. When he put up big power numbers in like 25 winter league games, I remember having an argument with a poster who was claiming Ramos was a Top 10 prospect in baseball.
Anyway, well stated.
might not be the best comp
but I’ve always thought of Ramos as more of a Henry Blanco type than a starting catcher. Tbh, I don’t know why Ramos is considered a significantly better prospect than say, the Cubs Welington Castillo (to pick a catcher I know).
As much as people shouldn't over react to his week in the majors
People also shouldn’t react to a poor half season at AAA. If he finds a way to turn it around in the 2nd half he’ll be highly regarded again. I think his biggest value is that he projects to stay at catcher and be very good defensively. I will never claim to be an expert on prospects but I do believe some of the other top catching prospects are expected to be moved from behind the plate like Jesus Montero (right?). So I think the fact that Ramos is considered by some to be ready defensively already and has showed promise with the bat in the past is what makes him so valuable. Don’t react to a couple poor months.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
Winter ball
accounted for a lot of his buzz. In the whathaveyoudoneformelately world of prospect evaluation 12 winter ball homers and a .332 batting avg will do that. I’m with halfchest in that I’m not overrating his slow adjustment to Triple-A anymore than I am his terrorizing the Venezuelan league. It’s tough to develop every day catchers, Ramos doesn’t turn 23 until August, and he has power. I’d take a gamble on that for a few months of Cliff Lee.
Win-win
Ramos seems like exactly the type of prospect fit for this kind of trade even if Mauer wasn’t blocking him.
For the Twins, they trade a not-sure-thing for a couple months of a fantastic pitcher. They’re not trading Heyward. Ramos is a good prospect, and he might have a long, productive career, but he’s also not likely to be a franchise player.
For the Mariners, Ramos is a great lottery ticket to receive in a deal for an asset you can’t keep. He’s likely better than whoever they’d get in draft pick compensation (and certainly the total package they’d receive would be better), and if he doesn’t pan out, well, what did they really give up to get him? 2 months of a guy, while very good, wasn’t helping the Mariners win anything this year anyway.
Seems like a trade where nobody really loses, and both teams could win.
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by thejd44 on Jul 8, 2010 4:48 PM EDT reply actions
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