FanPost

Has Chris Dwyer become a major prospect?

Though the Royals LHP prospect was considered to have significant potential, both makeup concerns and command issues kept him from being seen as a major pitching prospect. He just made BA's top-10 list for Royals prospects, and got only a C+ grade from John. Even as Royals prospects are gaining significant steam, Dwyer seems to have some potential, however, for becoming a major prospect.


First, the basics. Dwyer turned 22 in April of this year, and was seen as having a 90-94 mph FB, a plus curveball that BA said was the best in the system,and a changeup that had the potential to be plus. If he improved his command, the suggestion was that he could be a very good starting pitcher. For whatever reason, people were wary that he could make these changes, though the Royals did believe in him enough to give him a 1.5 million dollar bonus (roughly late-1st round level money) in the 4th round.

On the surface, his production this year has been impressive. In 78.1 IP, he struck out 82 batters in A+, and walked 33 for an FIP of 3.14 (and an ERA of 3.10). This suggests that his stuff has been as effective as the scouts had hoped, though his control seems to be remaining only decent. Yet, within these results, there appears to have been a dramatic change in the middle of May. Before his start on May 18th, Dwyer's K:BB ratio was 30:24 over 33.2 IP, which suggested pretty horrific control. Since then, however, he's had a 52:9 over 44.2 IP.

Clearly, we're dealing with tiny sample sizes, and there is much more to see before we can determine how significant of a prospect Dwyer is. If, however, he continues to show the control that he has over the past month and a half, it seems like Dwyer might be yet another prospect able to surpass the expectations set for him by the Royals.

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