Keeper league advice please

by baseballjunkie on Jul 5, 2010 2:46 AM EDT

for a 12 team roto 5X5 keeper league. I have some similar players who I have grouped together for consideration:

1) Please rank these keepers for long-term value (the next season or two):

Jay Bruce, Colby Rasmus, Grady Sizemore

2) Also please rank the following rookie/minor leaguers for long term value (up to 2 or 3 seasons):

Mike Moustakas, Justin Smoak, Travis Snider

3) Finally, please rank Dexter Fowler, Desmond Jennings, and Mike Trout (up to 2-3 seasons)

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Group 1: Bruce, Rasmus, Sizemore. I like Bruce better long-term, but Rasmus has flashed better power. Kind of a toss-up for me, but I like Bruce better and he plays in a micro-stadium, so take that for what it’s worth.

Group 2: Smoak, Snider, Moustakas. For all Smoak’s struggles with BABIP, he’s killed the ball with a 22% line drive rate and a 13.6% HR/FB rate. Very encouraging for a young hitter. Next year, he’ll probably be a pretty valuable piece to a fantasy team. Similar to Bruce last year, he’s got a big split in his OBP and AVG that I think demonstrates that he’s got a good approach at the plate. Snider’s injury is hard luck as it came right when he was starting to heat up, but I like him a lot going forward.

Group 3: Fowler, Jennings, Trout. In a neutral world, I like Jennings better, but it’s not a neutral world – you’re looking for fantasy stats, and Fowler’s got Coors Field to help him out. I doubt Trout will be in the Majors in 2 seasons, so if you get him now and hold him for 3 years you’re wasting a spot on your bench.

www.stealingfirstbase.com

by Nate Rose on Jul 5, 2010 3:16 AM EDT reply actions

mostly agree

1. Bruce, , Rasmus, Sizemore
2. Smoak, Snider, Moustakas
3. Jennings, Fowler, Trout – Nate is right that home field matters, but I think playing in TB will help Jennings’ numbers just as much as Coors will help Fowler. So, I’d take Jennings over Fowler.

by rmarx on Jul 5, 2010 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions

Agreed on all of them.

Bruce and Rasmus are really, really close, but if we’re talking just about fantasy I’d go with Bruce.

I’m just not ready to buy on Moustakas yet over two guys like Smoak and Snider.

And agreed on the Fowler/Jennings thing, too. Jennings is probably going to be a better player in real life, but Fowler will probably provide more value in fantasy.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Jul 5, 2010 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm kinda surprised so many people are talking Bruce over Rasmus for fantasy

Rasmus has a major advantage in SB over Bruce, and that’s usually one of the more coveted categories.

Of course I guess most people on this site who play fantasy are probably in leagues where that isn’t as much the case, but in a traditional format it makes a pretty big difference.

by oplaid on Jul 5, 2010 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions

+1

R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9

by doublestix on Jul 5, 2010 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Bruce is good for about 10 SB. If he hits 25-30 homers any time soon, that’s a more than solid fantasy OF. He’s probably going to hit around .280 too, and he’ll hit in the heart of the Reds order. He’s a very valuable fantasy piece, especially in keeper leagues.

As for SBs, I don’t get why so many people try to focus on them. I go for a ton of 20/20 type players and I usually end up doing fine in both homers and steals.

This year my outfield consists of Alex Rios, Carlos Gonzalez and Jay Bruce with Angel Pagan coming off the bench. None of those guys are world-beaters in any one category (though Pagan might be in steals if he played more often), but coupled with more minor power/speed guys on my team like Alexei Ramirez, Russell Martin and what I’ve gotten so far from Jimmy Rollins and Ian Kinsler, I’m tied for second in steals and I’m in fourth in homers.

www.stealingfirstbase.com

by Nate Rose on Jul 6, 2010 2:55 AM EDT up reply actions

rankings

1-Rasmus, Bruce, Sizemore
2-Smoak, Snider, Mous
3-Jennings, Trout, Fowler

Can you post this over at Fake Teams as well? I will probably promote to front page if you do. Good question.

raygu
www.faketeams.com
www.sbnation.com

by Ray Guilfoyle on Jul 5, 2010 1:32 PM EDT reply actions

Thanks for the tip

Posted earlier today at FakeTeams.com

by baseballjunkie on Jul 6, 2010 8:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Rankings

1. Bruce, Rasmus, Sizemore – I love Bruce’s upside and people forget he is so young. Rasmus looks to have 30/20 upside with a decent average. I wouldn’t touch Sizemore att his time. His body is a mess, and he also took the Greg Oden style photos. No thanks.

2. Smoak, Snider, Moose – All great prospects. I could see Smoak becoming an on-base machine with 30 homer potential. Snider will tear the cover off the ball, though his defense remains in question. Moose has a great bat but lets see how he does as he gets closer to the majors.

3. Jennings, Trout, Fowler – I have been calling Jennings a Crawford clone with a better eye for years. Trout has been awesome and should move up quickly. Fowler seems to have difficulty with MLB righties from what I have seen (although I am too lazy to check the stats).

R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9

by King Billy Royal on Jul 5, 2010 1:38 PM EDT reply actions

Rankings

1-Rasmus, Bruce, Sizemore. Rasmus is faster, if you play in a league with CF/RF/LF he’s got a huge positional advantage, and he’s flashing more power. The only thing Bruce has going for him is stadium, and that can’t be enough to overtake Rasmus’ superior performance.

2-Smoak, Moose, Snider. Smoak’s got park, numbers, and tools, while Moose is extremely well regarded and will get a chance soon. Snider’s a distant third to these two.

3-Jennings, Fowler, Trout. Jennings will make a big impact as soon as next year, tons of steals, good average, could have some power. Fowler’s kind of Jennings lite. Trout is unlikely to hit the MLB until 2012 at earliest.

by Franchise887 on Jul 5, 2010 5:00 PM EDT reply actions

Ranks

1 – Bruce, Rasmus, Sizemore
2 – Snider, Moose, Smoak
3 – Jennings, Trout, Fowler

Snider is getting underrated because he’s in the bigs and has not started raking yet. I still like his bat better than Smoak’s though. Moose and Smoak seem to have similar bats, so I’ll take the guy with positional advantage.

by guru4u on Jul 5, 2010 5:44 PM EDT reply actions

Snider

Has 17 HR and a .773 OPS in less then a full season of work. He’s got a better eye and k/bb then Smoak, has more defensive value and is actually younger, something we forget since he debuted at 20. When healthy he is the most talented guy on any of those lists in my opinon.

by ADLC on Jul 5, 2010 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions