July 26Th Minor League Thread
by casejud on Jul 26, 2010 5:07 PM EDT
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A fine summer day for minor league baseball, with some early games already played. Here's some of the kids taking the hill today. . .
AAA- Brandon Beachy makes AAA debut for Gwinnett vs Sam LeCure and Lousville - a real test becasue Louvsille is loaded with hitters right now, Jeff Smardzjia (7-1, 2.76), Rich Harden v Kyle Lohse in an interesting battle of rehabbing big leaguers, Mark Rzepczynski
AA Ball- Jeff Locke (1-0, 0.82, 2 starts), Andrew Brackman, JC Ramirez, Wily Peralta makes AA debut v Andrew Miller, Jordan Lyles, Tyler Chatwood
A+, A, and Short Season A Ball- John Lamb!, Tyler Matzek - couple of nice lefties goin' today.
Have fun watching and posting. Lots of good pitchers throwing today. Take it easy. Btw, FINAL Bumgarner post (I may mention his name but, no more arguing- I promise) and a Mad-Bum Crystal Ball coming soon!
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Nice season
It’s been said a million times but, he deserves a real shot with somebody I think. He could have easily outperformed the bums the mariners were sticking out there at DH and 1B in the first half for instance- though that isn’t saying much. League avergae production at very low cost ain’t too bad.
Now that DeJesus is out for the year, they just need to get rid of Guillen.
Then they can have Gordon in RF and Ka’aihue at DH.
A lineup of Kendall, Butler, Aviles, Betemit/Getz, Betancourt, Podsednik, Maier/Ankiel, Gordon and Ka’aihue is much better than going with Ankiel in right and keeping Guillen at DH.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jul 26, 2010 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd like him on the A's. But yeah he needs a shot in the Bigs with somebody.
"You see, in this world there's two kinds of people, my friend: Those with loaded guns and those who dig. You dig."
Alex Liddi
2/4 with 2 2Bs
Really hitting the ball well this month.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
Which is good news, I've heard the glove work at 3B hasn't been good.
He’s probably an outfielder in the long run.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jul 26, 2010 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions
David Lough
1/4 with a K
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
Very high on him
Reminds me of Domonic Brown..
big vern
gonna stay hot and all of sudden his numbers are going to look just fine, especially the power.
Neutralize for park/luck
And his stats look much better.
"The A's have to be setting some record this year for simultaneously maximizing team quality and player anonymity. I guess that’s sort of their thing though." - Luke in MN
RE
I’m not sure there is a more streaky hitter in the upper minors.
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too bad about Lyles
One more day and I would have gotten to see him. Very soggy in Austin and pretty high chance of rain through the rest of the night, so probably going to opt against going to scout Samardzija.
Josh Vitters likely out for the rest of the season
Broke his middle finger on a HBP last night. Kind of a bummer.
Damn.
He needs more PA’s or he’s never going to become an MLB-quality player.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jul 26, 2010 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions
He needs more than PAs
:-p
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wait.......whats that feeling in my chest?
Ohhhhhh it Burns…
Wow Blackburn makes nearly identical money as Baker does now....
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jul 26, 2010 8:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Shelby Miller
3 INN, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K so far
Just 2 Ks in 3 innings? There must be something wrong with Shelby.
Updated
5 INN, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K
Outside of one bad inning Miller has been dominating the Midwest League since taking some starts off in June to throw just bullpen sessions.
This kid is going to be special. He’s already a top 25 prospect IMO. The Cardinals better not trade him for Oswalt(I doubt Mozeliak is even thinking about it but just in case…)
It’ll be interesting to see what Miller does in the 6th. He hasn’t been stretched out too much and it’s the reason why he shouldn’t get a call to Palm Beach anytime soon.
big kudos to the Cards coaching and scouting staffs on this one
In less than a year, they’ve taken a kid who many thought was exceptionally raw and really set him on the path to being a good young impact arm.
Given the strength of this organization in teaching pitching fundamentals, you’d think they’d try to focus on adding lots of raw talent and letting their philosophies work for them.
stretching out
he’s obviously getting used to going longer distances now, his last few starts have been pretty dominant.
Stretching Out
His July 15th start was the game where he got roughed up a little giving up 5 hits and 4 runs in the 5th inning. But he’s been strong in the 5th and 6th innings in his two starts since then, including tonight. His line is now:
6 INN, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 K
And the Cardinals coaches have indeed done an excellent job with Shelby. Great idea taking him out of game action for about 2 weeks to just throw bullpen sessions. It has worked out beautifully.
Oh baby
7 INN, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 K, 9 GO, 6 FO
I still think something is wrong with Shelby. Only 5 Ks in 7 innings?
I’d imagine he is done for the night. Best outing of his career.
Tough Call
I’ll guess this:
2010: Finish in High A Palm Beach(3-4 starts)
2011: Start High A(10-15 starts), finish AA(10-15 starts)
2012: Full season in AAA, maybe a September callup for a few innings out of the pen
2013: Big league rotation
3 full years in the minors would be nice. I could see Jeff Luhnow starting him in AA in 2011 if his command and curveball look good in spring training next year.
Having him ready to step into the rotation in 2013 is nice because Carpenter’s and Lohse’s contracts are up after 2012.
by UncleBuck44 on Jul 27, 2010 12:56 AM EDT up reply actions
Jeff Locke
2 IP, 2 H, 4 Ks, 0 BBs
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Jul 26, 2010 7:54 PM EDT reply actions
6 Ks, 0 BBs through 3 IP.....
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Jul 26, 2010 8:06 PM EDT up reply actions
no
He’d have to be an average team’s top 3 prospect roughly, and he isn’t that – is he? Is he the Pirates 3rd best prospectT Thats usually my test for if someone is a top 100.
I'd say top 200 or so though...
But Definitely not top 100 … at least not for me
Wow Blackburn makes nearly identical money as Baker does now....
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jul 26, 2010 8:39 PM EDT up reply actions
No
1. Taillon*
gap
2. Allie*
3. Sanchez
big gap
Bryan Morris would have been a close #4, but a sore arm and being shut down (given his injury history), means he falls down any list.
Locke
So where does he look to be in the Pirates top 10?
He is probably closer to 6-8, rather than 1-3....
He has 9 Ks through 5 IP, while giving up 2 H and 0 BBs.
ZVR’s line: 4 IP, 1 BB, 3 K, 3 Hs.
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Jul 26, 2010 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions
3B Danny Valencia (Twins)
gets a Grand Slam off of Zach Grienke tonight… in 1st inning AB
he looks like he is proving all the doubters wrong… GREAT defense to go along with above-average bat (although it looks like he’ll barely have double digit Home-run power)
Wow Blackburn makes nearly identical money as Baker does now....
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jul 26, 2010 8:39 PM EDT reply actions
OF Aaron Hicks
either promoted or Injured
left game after 1 AB (Base on Balls)
Wow Blackburn makes nearly identical money as Baker does now....
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jul 26, 2010 8:41 PM EDT reply actions
Neither
He has a sac bunt and a sac fly in the game. He’s had 3 plate appearances.
wow yep you're right
sorry everyone
Wow Blackburn makes nearly identical money as Baker does now....
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jul 27, 2010 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm confused. Dewey can you explain the Lex Luger note there?
I thought you liked Kalish?
http://bullpenbanter.com
this MIN/KC game is getting out of hand
17-0 in the top of the 7th, 0 outs.
Joe Mauer – 5/5, 2B and an HR
Delmon Young – 2/4 with 2 2B
Danny Valencia – 4/4 with 2 2B and an HR
Grienke went 4 IP, 8 H, 8 R, 2 BB, 7 K, and an HR allowed (Valencia).
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
His average keeps rising
I didn’t think that was possible since he was already hitting like .310 or something at the all-star break, but he’s up to .328 after tonight I believe.
His BABIP isn’t even like out of this world insane, either; it’s sitting right at .340, which is where he was each of the past three seasons. He just isn’t striking out.
It’s actually pretty impressive to hit for that high of an average with only 13 home runs so far. His HR power isn’t much higher than last years, but his ISO is much improved since he’s lacing doubles at twice his 2009 rate.
Just a little more home run power and a little more walks and he really is Vlad Guerrero. Not that that will ever necessarily happen, but if he can maintain the contact rate he’s shown this season, he’s going to be a very good player for a while.
He's not hitting too many more homers than last year
(though 13 over 353 PA rather than 12 over 416 PA is still a nice improvement), but he’s hitting a lot more than he did the previous three years. Before last year, he hit 26 major league HRs, 1435 PAs. He might hit that many this year alone.
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Jul 27, 2010 12:15 AM EDT up reply actions
Adeiny Hechavarria
3 for 5, HR.
Now hitting .310 in AA
very excited
a solid .779 OPS, with his spectacular glove he doesn’t even have to hit much
It's exasperating
The amount of shrieking being done by some Jays’ fans over the loss of Pastornicky (not to mention Collins).
10 game hitting streak now. Multi hit games in 6 of those.
"Hitting the ball was easy. Running around the bases was the tough part."- Micky Mantle
by TwoEyesForAnEye on Jul 26, 2010 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Matt Garza throws No-Hitter
…they should send down Huntington & Nutting, because they aren’t ready, either. - royshowell
by Marinerfanjake on Jul 26, 2010 10:10 PM EDT reply actions
Indeed
…they should send down Huntington & Nutting, because they aren’t ready, either. - royshowell
by Marinerfanjake on Jul 26, 2010 10:29 PM EDT up reply actions
very true
and Bravesin07, I’m impressed; you learned to hit the goddamn reply button!
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
He knew how for a long while
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Jul 27, 2010 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions
he still didn't exercise that knowledge very often
he’s 4 for 4 in this thread, and that’s an impressive line from any prospect.
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
His RAPIP(Reply Average on Posts In Play) is obviously inflated
He’s due to regress. He can’t possibly maintaing that 100% rate.
by Tex2044 on Jul 27, 2010 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
very true
although the regression curve for Bi07 might not be as big as some may think, since he’s making extremely solid contact every post; I’d love to see his PostFX
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
by gore51 on Jul 27, 2010 12:50 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
SSS
gotta see more results before calling it a breakout
by Archie A on Jul 27, 2010 1:04 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
another solid point
I’m just pretty confident that this breakout is for real this time. I’ve been following Bravesin07 since 2007 and he’s done nothing but improve, so I see this recent string or dominance as nothing more than further adjustments he’s made
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
by gore51 on Jul 27, 2010 1:20 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Neil Ramirez
6 ip 5h 10k 0 bb. Best start of his career.
He’s been pitching pretty well this month.
The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.
numbers aren't horrible this year
Coming into the season, you would have had a hard time finding a Rangers fan that thought Ramirez would only have 30 BB in over 100 IP. He has almost cut his BB% in half this season. Still 7% though.
I'm fairly encouraged by his performance this year
He was pretty inconsistent early in the year, alternating great outings with horrible ones. I still think there is some potential for a mid rotation arm here, or a late innings arm.
http://bullpenbanter.com
ramirez
What’s he throwing? Last I heard he was at 88-90 MPH, or so I thought . . .
He's got a bit more zip than that
FB sits in the 91-92 range from what I’ve read from Parks and others.
Freude schöner Götterfunken, Tochter aus Elysium, Freude!
okay
I know Mike Newman has seen him in multiple years in the Sally and hasn’t sounded very impressive, and while I don’t remember off the top of my head exactly how hard he said Ramirez was throwing, he wasn’t sitting 91-92.
he was sitting 91-92 when Parks saw him
and I’ve heard other reports from gun readings in game that are similar. Of course, this guy is so inconsistent that it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s had dips in velo from time to time.
Freude schöner Götterfunken, Tochter aus Elysium, Freude!
Back from the dead
Somewhere in Goodyear, Arizona tonight, Matt Antonelli took his first game-action swing since screwing up his hook of hamate at the end of spring training. Remember about 300 years when he was the Padres’ 2B of the future?
Lyles
6 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K.
He’s had a bad July but I suppose this wasn’t a terrible outing. I wonder if the heat and the rigors of the long season have been getting to him.
Lamb
4 ip, 7 h, 2 r (1 er), 0 bb, 5 k
and it was his final start in high-A. ends his stint there with an absurd 90/15 k/bb.
a small pick me up for tonight.
once Montgomery and Duffy are there in a few weeks, i’d chop my left nut off to see that rotation in action.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
nw arkansas
I think I’m going to follow them around in mid-August once I’m on a temporary class break. Will probably scout them for 4-5 consecutive days to see everybody.
This Makes My Day
I can’t wait to see what the rotation is that comes to Frisco in August. Would it be too much to ask for Monty, Dwyer, and Lamb?
heh, maybe
You’ve also got Aaron Crow in that rotation, not that seeing him is a bad thing. If that team shows up in Frisco with that roster in August, we’re all going to be crawling around that stadium like flies.
+1
i live about an hour and a half away from frisco. never been to a game out there but im dying to go.
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on Jul 27, 2010 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions
No Kidding
And, as Double alluded to, it wouldn’t be horrible to see Duffy either. If they keep everyone on regular rest, Lamb would be scheduled to start the first game of the series. Who knows though…will be interesting to see how it plays out.
Fautino de los Santos
1.2 IP, 2 Ks, 1 BB, 1 H, 1 R
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
check those splits
Getting hit hard by LH bats, which matches with what I’ve actually seen of him. I’ve also seen a lot of good contact made on him from the left side that did not result in hits. The raw stuff is pretty awesome, but he needs some time and a pitch to neutralize that split.
Interesting!
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Jul 27, 2010 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions
He needs a changeup
He would be devastating if he could master that pitch – for both righties AND lefties.
change
Doesn’t really need one against RH batters, FB/SL is plenty against them. Against LH batters, sure, a change would help. From what I have heard that pitch was VERY raw in the past, though. I’m not sure he’s thrown any out of the pen. If not for the elbow surgery history, I’d say splitter would be the way to go for this kind of power arm.
Zach von Rosenberg
4 IP, 3 Ks, 1 BB, 3 Hs, 0 Rs
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
Andrew Brackman
6 1/3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 8 K, plus a GO/AO ratio of 3
http://www.theyankeeu.com
Rangers challenging him
he hit leadoff tonight.
Last night, in the Q & A, Daniels claimed that there was no one higher than Skole on their draft board when it was time for them to pick. Were you there?
Freude schöner Götterfunken, Tochter aus Elysium, Freude!
I'm sure he wasn't.
Of course, their draft board probably could have been sub-titled, “Talented toolsy players who will definitely sign immediately for slot”. Guessing if any of the obvious guys at that pick were up for signing for slot, they would have been higher on the TX board.
Yeah, I think he might not have technically said anything untrue, but...
as you said.
Goldstein was also there (Newberg Night) and praised the Rangers for at least going for it and getting some “lottery tickets with really high ceilings” instead of playing it safe with so-so college guys.
Goldstein also said the Royals might just have the best system right now, and raved about Profar and Beltre a bit.
Freude schöner Götterfunken, Tochter aus Elysium, Freude!
beltre
I generally agree with that strategy, not that college players aren’t high upside, especially at that point in the draft.
I got enough on Beltre to write him up. One of the most interesting prospects I’ve seen this year. Not too worried about the perceived plate discipline problems.
Danny Rosenbaum beats John Lamb
Rosenbaum went 8IP,5H,0ER,1BB,5K’s This kid is a star in the making. Remember this guy’s name because you will be hearing it alot.
Be real with yourself.
Matt Wieters
2-2, 2 HR, 3RBI, 2BB
Surprised no one has mentioned this yet. Sure nice to see him show any power at all considering how poor his season has been thus far. Hopefully its the start of something big and him putting himself back into the race with Carlos Santana and Buster Posey.
I feel this is a bit overdue.
Been waiting for this all season
…they should send down Huntington & Nutting, because they aren’t ready, either. - royshowell
by Marinerfanjake on Jul 27, 2010 1:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Baseball Prospectus on Ackley
If his power doesnt develop as expected and continues to have defensive issues, he seems to be like a poor man’sversion of eric sogard, that type of hitter. He is a couple yrs younger than sogard to he obviously can exceed that but there seem to be some issues there
Dustin Ackley, 2B, Seattle Mariners (Triple-A Tacoma)
No highly-regarded prospect had a more brutal start to the season than Ackley, who began the year in an 11-for-79 (.137) slump at Double-A. He made up for it by batting .310 in his next 60 games before moving up, but there are still more questions than answers here. He can hit—there’s no doubt about that part—but even scouts who saw last year’s second overall pick in the Arizona Fall League last fall didn’t see the power they were promised, and this year he’s gone deep just three times in 327 at-bats. For now he’s a high-average/high-on-base player who fits at the top of the lineup. He’s good, but just not the run producer many expected, and he still might need another position switch as reports on his defense aren’t exactly glowing.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=11579
huh?
The scouting report on Ackley has said for years that he’s a high average hitter with average at best power. This wasn’t exactly a secret, so it’s a little surprising to me that Kevin Goldstein managed to find multiple scouts who thought Ackley was supposed to be a slugger. If he was a true middle of the order guy, that would have been a bonus rather than the expectation.
Maybe he doesn’t like Ackley, but if the kid can hit, there aren’t THAT many questions.
+1
That’s the first thing that crossed my mind when I read that as well. he hit a few more home runs hus Junior year but just looking at that swing it didn’t spell power. It spelled barrell on ball and hand-eye corrdination, as well as a nice batting eye. He’s got a lot going for him as a hitter as long as you don’t expect him to be Chase Utley.
As far as switching positions – I doubt it. For not having played there much before he has worked hard and been pretty good. 14 errors and 40 double plays is not bad.
One last thing, a general point. I have NEVER, EVER failed to get more accurate information about a prospect’s defensive skills than a look at his basic defensive statistics. Goldstein in particular has been extremely inaccurate when reporting, or second hand reporting from “scouts”.
yep
It’s not uncommon for a college hitter to see a huge spike in power during his junior year. Not sure if this happens due to physical maturation concentrating around that period of time, increased aggressiveness out of draft-eligible players, or simply due to experience kicking in, but it happens.
While I value the information that folks like BA and KG get, you have to remember the bias and intentions of the source. Sometimes information is given by those sources specifically to ensure that it gets out to people who read their work. You can have some pretty crazy things going on. If I’m a Red Sox scout and I’ve seen Jesus Montero play, I’m probably not telling BA that his defense is improving, because that increases his trade value. If I’m a scout for a team that’s interested in acquiring a top pitching prospect, I might just go to Kevin Goldstein and tell him that said prospect isn’t looking very impressive. The spin gets even more bizarre at the front office levels. Bill Simmons of all people had a great discussion with NBA draftnik Chad Ford on his podcast a few weeks back talking about the same sort of thing in basketball. I’m not saying that this stuff happens ALL the time . . .but it’d be silly to think that it doesn’t happen at all.
Good stuff
I didn’t even think of it that way. As far as a players defense goes there is so much contradicory information, perhaps for the reasons that you say, that I find that looking at a players regular, plain old, basic stats is way more reliable almost every time.
In general I prefer and trust somebody who trusts his own eyes. Not everybody has the skills to spot a ballplayer but, there are a lot of smart baseball fans out there and some can.
Yes, but
Only really works to grade 3B, SS, 2B prospects.
Erros, assits, DPs, etc mean very little in grading C, 1B, OF (unless for some reason you see a real high error total)
Fat man is no more,
Bursting on through Heaven's Door
Come on in, says Bill
Sure
but cs%, pb, errors work for Catchers, 1b man don’t matter, and assists-errors-dps work fine for Of’s. Good old fashioned Range Factor will work fine for an everyday CF in the minors. It’ll usually tell you a lot more than 3-4 differing opinions on a guy – most by a person who hasn’t seen a guy play.
Take a look at Engel Beltre if you want to see great densive stats for a CF this year.
Another great example is Mike Stanton. I heard anything from “stiff”, to “average”, to “good enough to play Cf”, to “Desmond Jennings is going to have so much more defensive value that he is a bertter prospect”. Stanton’s range numbers were good and after watching him for a week its obfious he covers a lot of ground in Rf
stanton
Great example of a player that you actually need to see. Really lean and athletic build for such a big player. You can tell a lot of that build is due to his young age, of course . . .by the time he’s 25, Stanton is going to be an absolute monster physically.
Beltre does seem pretty good defensively. I suspect a big reason for this is because defensive plays challenge him and force him to use his physical tools to succeed. Not sure how this will hold up in the years to come.
+1
I read the above article yesterday and was a little baffled by it. At no point have I seen more than a 50 grade for future power, which led me to believe he’d settle in the mid to upper teens for home runs.
As for the position question, give him some time, I have a hard time believing he could be worse than Dan Uggla or Rickie Weeks with a little more seasoning.
"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra
I think you're assuming about the scouts
There’s a difference between expecting him to hit for more power than he currently has and expecting him to be a slugger. They could’ve been expecting the average power and still made these comments because he hasn’t shown it. Really he’s just had a poor power output to date and it is a concern to note on someone’s profile.
+1
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Jul 27, 2010 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
True
i guess there is a middle ground there. Personally, when a kid is learning to play second base while debuting as a pro in AA I’d try to expect very little at the plate. That’s a tough transition. He’s been getting on the sacks, smacking a lot of doubles, and holding his own at second base, and improving as the season has gone along. I’m impressed with him.
Now, If the Mariners hadn’t of hung the albatross of a Chone Figgins contract around thier necks for the next 3, possibly 4 years. 9 million isn’t that bad I guess but I think Ackley could that poorly starting next season for 400, 000. It looks like wasted money and Figgins has been poor at second base as well.
That was how I read it
that his power has been disappointing, not that they expected him to be a real masher, but that it’s lower than anticipated.
Freude schöner Götterfunken, Tochter aus Elysium, Freude!
Exactly
If Ackely has to move back to the OF (or worse 1B), the fact that he is only flashing 10 HR power vs. the 15-20 that scouts anticipated is a pretty big deal. I think that is where KG is coming from.
But I also know how people on this site love to bash KG.
is it a concern? maybe
It’d be more of a concern for me if I thought that the power was a lock and an important aspect of his prospect profile before and now it’s not. He was never going to be more than an average hitter for power. His game was always going to be about hitting for average and getting on base, and he’s doing that quite well after a slow start.
For what it’s worth, I wasn’t the only person to interpret what he wrote in the way that I did, and I can’t think that possible reading was lost on a rather intelligent fellow like KG when he wrote the thing.
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