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Around SBN: Trent Richardson Interviews Fellow Brown Brandon Weeden

July 22 Minor League Thread

Pitchin' today . . .

AAA - Zach Britton, my dog Charlie Furbush makes AAA debut for Toledo, Sean West, Jay Jackson

AA Ball- Kyle Drabek vs Deolis Guerra, Nick Hagadone, Blake Beavan, Jake McGeee, the lovely and talented Martin Perez, Trevor Reckling

A+ , A , and short season A Ball - Matt Moore, Brad Holt ( remember him? ), Dellin Betances, Garrett Richards, Alex Colome, Trevor May

Enjoy the games and the chat folks. Sacramento is already beating up on Colorado Springs in a day PCL game - no fireworks from Big Chris Carter though - 3 walks, Rochester over Buffalo 10-0 - Trevor Plouffe with a Long ball and a Double


Comment 168 comments  |  2 recs  | 

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Help me understand

Please forgive my ignorance. He is obviously right handed and has a torn labrum in his left shoulder.
Question 1: How did that happen? On a swing?
Question 2: Does this affect his throwing or fielding at all?
Question 3: How much will this affect his swing?
Question 4: The tweet stated surgery after the season. How long for the recovery? Any possibility to be ready by spring training?

The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.

by Savoy on Jul 22, 2010 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

No!!!

Damn, Morel was like the one prospect the Sox had playing well in the upper minors.

They’re really running out of decent prospects to trade, with Morel, Thompson, Phegley and Mitchell going down, Flowers, Danks, Escobar, Gonzalez and Retherford playing quite poorly and Hudson, Beckham and Viciedo up in the majors.

It’s going to be an ugly-looking farm system, to say the least.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Jul 23, 2010 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

big game

from chris nelson…… 4-5, w/ a 2B, HR.

Are chumps like Barmes and Herrera really a better option?

by rdf8585 on Jul 22, 2010 6:08 PM EDT reply actions  

love this guy

the #‘s are undoubtedly “enhanced” by being in the PCL and in Colorado Springs, but i don’t have much doubt he can be a capable ML shortstop.

R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9

by doublestix on Jul 22, 2010 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

NO

he’ll just rot on the bench again. he needs to be traded.

by auclairkeithbc on Jul 23, 2010 8:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

Rays should trade Bartlett for him

he can platoon with Brignac at SS and S-Rod at 2B

by daveh33 on Jul 23, 2010 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

first thought is

seems like a decent deal for both sides. I still like Will Smith somewhat, and Callaspo wasn’t going to get a huge return.

by toonsterwu on Jul 22, 2010 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think

This is a good deal for KC. Will Smith is a nice arm and O’Sullivan is serviceable (no worse than Brian Bannister forsure).

This is what KC needed especially with the talent down on the farm ready to make an impact in a year or 2.

by jepmotors on Jul 22, 2010 6:50 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

ya

i think both teams sold these players at fairly low points. for KC, it opens up a spot for the Moose whenever he proves ready. maybe this September, but i doubt it.

R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9

by doublestix on Jul 22, 2010 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

I really like Callaspo

and Smith was great in the MiB series; good deal for both sides

Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson

by gore51 on Jul 22, 2010 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Others going today

Guillermo Moscoso
Drew Naylor
John Lannon
Ross Seaton
Kyle Nicholson
Pedro Martinez (http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=542631)

Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson

by gore51 on Jul 22, 2010 7:22 PM EDT reply actions  

interesting slate of cubs arms today besides jay jackson

Chris Carpenter has lost some luster, but he still has a good fb/curveball combination. I do wonder if he might be better as a late inning pen arm.

Chris Rusin has very average stuff. High 80’s fastball, decent-solid secondary options. Has a sub-1.00 WHIP since his return in May. Sure, polished college arm mowing through A+ ball isn’t that interesting, but there’s enough there to keep an eye on. Really wish he would get the bump to AA. I wonder if he could be Ted Lilly-ish.

Austin Reed is also toeing the rubber for the AZL Cubs.

by toonsterwu on Jul 22, 2010 7:34 PM EDT reply actions  

Wow colorado springs is a launching pad

taylor 2-5, 1 rbi
carter 0-2, 3 BB’s
Donaldson 2-5/3rbi, hits his 16th hr, not bad for a catcher. 1.000+OPS on road games, anyone know if Sacramento has become a tough hitters park?
Tolleson, solid waiver pickup from twins, plays several positions. .336/.949 ops

by MagicMike23 on Jul 22, 2010 7:43 PM EDT reply actions  

Damn good night

7 IP
4 H
0 R
1 BB
10 K
1 HBP
4GO-7FO

by Jeff Reese on Jul 22, 2010 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re:

That’s double digit Ks in 5 of his last 10 starts. I don’t know why he’s such a second half pitcher but in 7 starts since the FSL all-star break, his line is 43.1IP 24H 9ER 16BB 65K. That’s a 1.87ERA and a 0.93WHIP — but most importantly a K/BB over 4. On the season his K/9 is 12.38 but his BB/9 is 4.59.

by Dfarth on Jul 22, 2010 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Matt Moore=biggest tease in minor league baseball

that 4.59 ERA is a little ugly, but damn, does he have some potential

Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson

by gore51 on Jul 22, 2010 9:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah

The thing is he’s really streaky. It’s like he figures out his control midway through the season and gets on a roll. I know sometimes curveball guys take a few starts in the season to find their release point — but with Moore it like takes him half the season but then he is one of the best pitchers in the minors afterwards.

Anyways, it’ll be interesting to see if he can ever figure it out and be in the strikezone more consistently. He seems like he can’t help but be successful when it’s in the zone.

by Dfarth on Jul 22, 2010 9:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

i sure hope the dude can

I love Matt Moore and is oozing pores of potential

Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson

by gore51 on Jul 22, 2010 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Alvarez

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=10146747

forgot to post this yesterday, but did anyone see this terrible harold reynolds interview with pedro alvarez for mlb tonight?

where’s the power coming from? goodness gracious, you’re supposed to be a line drive guy, maybe he’ll hit ten homers.

What a patently misinformed question! Couldn’t they get one writer/editor on that show who knows anything about prospects to catch this kind of thing? One of perhaps his best tools has always been power. What a joke, huh?

by son.of.sourman on Jul 22, 2010 8:16 PM EDT reply actions  

that's really awful

but jesus, the whole interview was painful to listen to

Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson

by gore51 on Jul 22, 2010 8:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah it's awful job overall

there is a point where i think pedro flirts with the idea of correcting him, but i think there was no way he could have without coming off as insolent or egotistical.

by son.of.sourman on Jul 22, 2010 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

i kinda got the same feeling

but seriously, who in mainsteam baseball tv does know what they are talking about? it’s getting worse and worse seeing the Eduardo Perez’s and John Kruk’s of the world blabbling on for the sake of hearing their voices

Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson

by gore51 on Jul 22, 2010 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Amen.

Seems like the radio guys in many markets no more than the TV guys. You get on TV by having a brand and a recognizable face. You get on radio because you can be entertaining and informative. Dave Jagler on Nats radio know more than his radio collegeague and the two TV guys combined.

On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.

by souldrummer on Jul 22, 2010 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Harold's always been painful to listen to

It’s astonishing what staggers from his mouth.

by royshowell on Jul 23, 2010 12:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

Harold, Harold, Harold...

…it’s too bad because I find him entertaining but not always informative. But stuff like this really makes me sad for his network putting him in positions where his desire to talk out of his behind makes him look really, really stupid. Let’s go all the way and have Joe Morgan start talking about prospects.

On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.

by souldrummer on Jul 22, 2010 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

+1

I’ve always found him likeable but he’s not going to know the minors. I think he’s pretty good for in-game analysis (i.e., getting inside the batter, pitcher, and manager’s heads).

by Dfarth on Jul 22, 2010 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

+2

I also find him entertaining, but suggesting Pedro Alvarez is a 10 HR guy is really being out of the loop. He might hit 10 HR’s in July….of his rookie year, for God sakes.

"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra

by Kerm on Jul 23, 2010 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

This kind of thing really annoys me

I mean, all of us on these boards take our free time to do a little research and learn about these guys, yet the dude getting paid hundreds of thousands to talk about it on TV can’t spend the time to be as informed as we are? It’s pretty pathetic that these guys get to masquerade as journalists just because they used to play the game. I’m sure you could find some former players who would respect their job enough to learn what should be the minimum required for their job, but man.

I mean, how hard is it really? You could spend 5 minutes on the internet after you hear the Pirates have called up some guy named “Pedro Alvarez” and learn that 10 HR would be an absolute disappointment and disaster for him, not what is expected.

Blah. There is my rant.

by oplaid on Jul 23, 2010 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Oswaldo Arcia

this kid is just a beast

2-3 so far tonight, with a double and HR. Back to back games with home runs.

His extra base hitting is flat out silly.

by hotshotschamp on Jul 22, 2010 8:39 PM EDT reply actions  

is that 10 now ALREADY !?!?!?!

he’s a better HR hitter than J.P. Arencibia …

only joking

Wow Blackburn makes nearly identical money as Baker does now....

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jul 23, 2010 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Nate Baker

5 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 4 K line in his second start for High-A Bradenton.

The walks are slightly concerning, but control doesn’t seem to have been too much of a problem with him from his stats, so not really anything to fret over at this point.

Hey, an out is an out - unless you're Mario, in which case it's probably two outs. -UtesFan89

Hard work always beats talent if talent doesn't work hard.

by wg1of5 on Jul 22, 2010 9:03 PM EDT reply actions  

Mel Rojas, Jr.

3-4, 2B

Hitting .364 in 5 games with State College of the New York-Penn league.

Colton Cain 4 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 4 Ks, O BB

Really good start from Cain thus far in about 15 IP, so who knows.

by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Jul 22, 2010 9:06 PM EDT reply actions  

Dan Duffy

5 ip, 2 h, 0 r, 2 bb, 8 k

jjcoop36: At wilmington vs london kinston # royals duffy looks pretty good in first two innings 90-93 mph fb solid ch loopy cb

R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9

by doublestix on Jul 22, 2010 9:09 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

Glad to see this

Royals system is just insane this year. I could see between 9 and 11 of their guys making a top 100 list and it being justified.

http://bullpenbanter.com

by gatling on Jul 23, 2010 12:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

i'm keeping an updated top 100 right now...

i have Moose, Myers, Montgomery top 15, Hosmer and Lamb top 30, Dwyer in the next 10… Melville, Crow, Duffy, and maybe Robinson in the second 50…. it is ridiculous.

by daveh33 on Jul 23, 2010 8:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

random

I’m really interested to see Lamb . . .everything I’ve heard makes me think he is almost certainly a top 20 guy and maybe more than that.

by mrkupe on Jul 23, 2010 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Lamb

I’m probably in the minority on this, but I think Lamb’s in the discussion for the #1 overall pitching prospect. Teheran probably has him in terms of stuff, but I know some don’t like his delivery. Perez has him in terms of development but he’s never really dominated like Lamb. Obviously Hellickson is in the mix as well — but I think a legit argument can be made for any of those 4 guys as the #1 pitching prospect in the minors and it not be totally ridiculous. I might be leaving someone off but Lamb is right there with the top guys in my opinion.

by Dfarth on Jul 24, 2010 1:10 AM EDT up reply actions  

worth thinking about

My biggest hesitation with Lamb is that nobody has really put out a comprehensive scouting report on him yet. What I’ve heard sounds fantastic but there’s just MORE out there on a Teheran or a Perez.

But yeah, when I think of top guys, Lamb is right there with the guys you mentioned. I’d add Randall Delgado and Chris Dwyer to the list as well.

by mrkupe on Jul 24, 2010 1:22 AM EDT up reply actions  

Scouting

He sounds like a FB, CB, CU guy right now. I listened to his last broadcast and the FB was up to 95 and hit 93 in the 8th. He was in the zone all night (with all the pitches). Not sure about the quality of the break or the location within the zone on any of the pitches. Apparently he also has a slider as well but organizational policy prevents him from throwing it until AA.

I’m praying they get him to AA by August because I should (barring a disaster) get to see him.

by Dfarth on Jul 24, 2010 4:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

I would be surprised if he's not up by then

I was somewhat surprised they didn’t push him to AA this weekend as NW Arkansas has a doubleheader this evening and it would have been a nice time to bring him in. I’ll probably make a trip to wherever to see him as soon as he’s up . . .hard to complain really as that NW Arkansas team is loaded with interesting guys.

Going to Frisco to see Jordan Lyles in a few days? I believe he’s got the last game of the series against the Roughriders. Not thrilled about the way that Frisco handles their ticket sales (don’t get to pick the specific section), but I might head up depending on how school obligations look.

by mrkupe on Jul 24, 2010 4:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

Re:

I hadn’t looked that far ahead but it looks like he’ll be here Aug 5? I should be able to make that barring a work conflict.

NW Ark comes the 14th-16th but I also have family in Arkansas so I can make a trip up over labor day and see them then. I’d love it if I could catch Lamb and Dwyer.

by Dfarth on Jul 24, 2010 4:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

lyles

I believe he pitches this upcoming Tuesday in Frisco actually.

I’ve seen Crow, still need to see Dwyer. I like Dwyer’s build though, not real big but very solidly put together. If I have to drive to Frisco or CC to see Dwyer, so be it. I’ll probably be hitting the road in mid-August in between class sessions for a few days, we’ll see where I’m headed.

I have 3 teams I still need to see. Springfield really doesn’t have much, but Tulsa has a few nice pieces, and the Arkansas team has some good players on it.

by mrkupe on Jul 24, 2010 4:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

Frisco Schedule

Unless I am reading it wrong, Frisco is at Midland next week.

by Dfarth on Jul 24, 2010 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Didn't scouting reports before this year

have Lamb is a mid-rotation guy? Perhaps his stuff has taken a step forward and he’s more of a potential #2 now?

Freude schöner Götterfunken, Tochter aus Elysium, Freude!

by t ball on Jul 24, 2010 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Perhaps

But the scouting reports before this year were on very limited data (since he didn’t pitch his senior year of HS). He’s had tremendous success (leading the minors in ERA — I know it’s ERA but it’s still something) while showing outstanding peripherals and better than expected stuff. His FIP is 2.44 and his BABIP is .280 so it’s not like he’s getting really lucky either. All this, while not throwing one of his secondary pitchers, very impressive to me.

I hate to get into the #1 vs #2 thing, but I think that Lamb is potentially a very good starter in the bigs. As Travis Wood, Madison Bumgarner, Ricky Romero, CJ Wilson, and Jaime Garcia (among others) are showing, you don’t really have to have elite velocity from the left side to be very effective. Thus, I think he could very well turn into a #1-#2 type at the next level

by Dfarth on Jul 24, 2010 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

his velocity has taken a bit of a step forward from what i understand

Goldstein and others say he’s touching 95 now, not the case before this year. BA had him at 88-91 (i think) during the winter, but it’s more consistent in the low-90’s now.

R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9

by doublestix on Jul 24, 2010 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Similar to mine

I have the same three in the top 15, Lamb in the top 20, Hosmer and Dwyer in the top 40. After that I think Colon, Crow, and Duffy are likely top 100 guys so that puts us at 9. Melville and Robinson are ones I could see arguments for which puts us at 11 possible. Just insane.

http://bullpenbanter.com

by gatling on Jul 24, 2010 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

Garrett Richards

6 IP 2 H 0 R 0 BB 8 K
7/2 GB/FB

As a line it probably shows nothing not already known, but his progress in AA and AAA will be interesting.

by TheQuestforMerlin on Jul 22, 2010 9:29 PM EDT reply actions  

Furbush AAA Debut

3 ER over 6 IP (all 3 in 1 inning) … walked 2, fanned 7. vs Pawtucket. Seemed to get better as the outing progressed.

by rdf8585 on Jul 22, 2010 9:30 PM EDT reply actions  

From BAs Wednesday Chat
Bret (NYC): Hey Jim! Is Charlie Furbish this year’s Dan Hudson? Do you see him as a potential #4 or #5 starter? His 146/24 K/BB ratio looks pretty impressive. Thanks!

Jim Callis: He has better pure stuff than Hudson. With the year he’s having, sure, he could be a No. 4. I’ve never been a huge fan, but it’s hard not to like his year.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/chat/2010/2610382.html

Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson

by gore51 on Jul 22, 2010 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

He has better pure stuff than Hudson

Well, that’s the opposite of everything I’ve ever heard.

by alskor on Jul 22, 2010 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re

I found this to be a weird comment too. Hudson has much better stuff than I realized…

by Dfarth on Jul 22, 2010 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

its only weird...

Because he says he has better stuff than says he is a 4th starter…

by JD Sussman on Jul 23, 2010 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yup...

… and then here’s a quote from a chat with Jim on January 6th of this year:

Paul (NJ): Ceiling on Daniel Hudson?

Jim Callis (3:11 PM): No. 3 starter.

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/30196/mlb-with-jim-callis

Hudson has been pretty damn good since then… and I think pretty much everyone would say he as least #3 starter stuff/ceiling (as Jim did 6 months ago). If you search my posts you’ll find I’ve been pushing Furbush for years now. Always liked him. I don’t think he’s that close to Hudson, though.

by alskor on Jul 23, 2010 1:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

I would hope he doesn't just have a #3 ceiling

Its absurd to think his absolute best result is being between the 60th and 90th best starter in the league.

by Navi's_Navy on Jul 23, 2010 2:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

That's flawed thinking Imo.

I mean, there’s not an even 30, #1 and #2 starters by my definition. A bunch of teams don’t even have a true ace, and some don’t even have a #2 type starter.

"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra

by Kerm on Jul 23, 2010 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

no doubt

we get too caught up trying to define #1/#2/#3’s etc. I mean the Brewers have a true ace in Yo, and a solid #4 in Wolf [usually] and then a bunch of #5’s or worse…lol.

by St.Steve on Jul 23, 2010 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

Exactly

and for another example, the Pirates start 4 middle relievers and a left handed specialist.

"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra

by Kerm on Jul 23, 2010 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

totally disagree

not each team has a true number 1, number 2, etc, but roughly speaking, starters ranked in the 30-60 range are true #2 starters. it is definitely semantics, but when people say Jordan Lyles is a number 2 starter, i always read that to mean he is not likely to be a top 30 starter. i think if people are saying his upside is an ideal #2 starter on a playoff team with a true ace, they are definitely misusing the term and confusing people. i prefer using ace, 1/2, 2/3, etc because the dividing lines are less clear, and it allows a guy like Lyles to be excluding from the potential ace category without saying he couldn’t be a top 30 starter.

by auclairkeithbc on Jul 23, 2010 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions  

The terms are rather confusing

Because nobody really has a sense of who the #30 starter is or the #60. Here, for example, are a few people who are amongst the top-30 xFIP pitchers so far this year – Jason Hammel, Randy Wells, Hiroki Koruda, Scott Baker and Ryan Dempster.

Between #30-#60: Brandon Morrow, Carlos Silva, Justin Masterson, Dallas Braden, Jeff Niemann, and others.

Here’s something, for example, that might surprise you. Who is the starting pitcher with the 60th lowest xFIP so far this year? Aaron Harang – his xFIP is a 4.35. Is that a #2? A #3? (The 60th ERA is 4.12)

Oftentimes, you’ll see people say things like “a #3 on a division champion.” Now, perhaps I’m simply not sufficiently educated, but I have no idea what that means. Is that a #65 starter, or a #50 starter, or a #30? In general, I think these terms of #1/2/3/4/5 are useful only if you don’t, um, actually think about what they mean. As a rule, that bothers me, except in this case, they’re not really even supposed to mean anything (As mentioned above, A “#3” can be an ace or a #5, depending on which team he’s on.) Even for ceilings, they’re rarely more than a vague guide; we all have our personal lists of guys who shattered their “ceilings.” Dan Haren had a rock-hard ceiling of a #3. Until he became a major league ace. In other words, working too hard to define these terms strictly is kind of a fool’s errand

TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems

by OldProspects on Jul 23, 2010 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

This is always the problem with this discussion

It completely depends on your definition of what a #__ starter is. Personally, I go by Baseball America’s definitions. I don’t have my prospect hand book (where the definitions are defined) in front of me, so I’m just going off of memory, but a #1 starter is something along the lines of a pitcher with, two plus pitches, an above average third pitch, plus-plus command, plus-plus makeup. When you look at it this way, there’s what, maybe 15 actual #1 starters? So theoretically, a #2 starter could be statistically (depending on what stats you’re using to rank your pitchers) the 16th best pitcher in baseball. It’s a very cloudy argument from one person to the next, but this is how I view it.

"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra

by Kerm on Jul 23, 2010 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

hmmm

yeah, well that is a pretty tough standard. i would guess it would exclude some real aces, who might be slightly deficient in one of those areas. i do think there is a distinction between an ace and a regular #1 starter though, which is why i like using the 1/2 or 2/3 designation.

i guess i should look into it more, because the difference between the 25th and 55th starter is probably more pronounced than the difference between the 55th and 85th starter. but maybe not. it seems like most good teams fill out their staffs with true 3/4 or #4 starters, while some of the worst teams are stuck with a couple true #5s. And those teams often pay good money to lock down the #4s as to not get stuck with a #5.

by auclairkeithbc on Jul 23, 2010 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

this is available on the Google Books version of one of the BA handbooks

I’ll post it in the next daily thread. It’s pretty good, I’ll agree . . .the only flaw with it, of course, is that if you use BA’s criteria for No. 1-2 starters to evaluate prospects according to BA’s player reports, you find that there’s somewhere between a million and a bajillion frontline starters in the minor leagues.

by mrkupe on Jul 23, 2010 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well right...

but ceiling and the likelihood of reaching that ceiling are very different things. For example, a guy like Julio Teheran has a ceiling of a #1 starter (by BA’s def.) but realistically, he has what, a <3% chance of actually reaching that ceiling?

"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra

by Kerm on Jul 23, 2010 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

not sure if anybody has done a study like that

I mean, BA’s definition technically has nothing to do with the numbers, which is generally how people seem to want to define a No. 1 starter.

by mrkupe on Jul 23, 2010 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ha

You mean like the “Jordan Lyles has a higher ceiling than Martin Perez, cause his stats are better” argument?

You’ve been to a lot more minor league games than I have, so I’m sure you can attest to the fact that between inadequate score keepers, sub-par defense and park factors, that minor league stats are extremely misleading. As I always say, believe in the scouting reports.

"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra

by Kerm on Jul 23, 2010 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

jeez!

Lyles rules, look at what he ‘s doing in AA compared to Perez, it’s not even close man…/

by St.Steve on Jul 23, 2010 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes

You got me, I surrender.

"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra

by Kerm on Jul 23, 2010 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

heh

I don’t think you’d find many who would say that Lyles has a higher ceiling than Perez, better numbers or not . . .not a slight on Lyles who is a good pitcher in his own right, but Perez has some rare stuff.

I wouldn’t say that the numbers are “extremely misleading” . . .it’s just that they tell many stories, some of them contradictory. Good performers deserve praise just as poor performers do not, but it’s important not to freak out over the numbers, that’s all.

I was talking to somebody about this earlier today, but take the example of “Player X grounds out to second base.” Now, did the player hit a rocket that was expertly fielded? Did the second baseman have to run to grab the ball just before it leaves the infield? Did the ball nearly eat up the second baseman but he recovered to throw the player out? Or was it poor contact resulting in a weak grounder? And that’s just one aspect of one play. Some of those things might be measurable in the future with technology (albeit expensive tech that you won’t find in minor league stadiums), but a lot of them are things you’ll just have to see for yourself. Think about how much people learned about prospects in just an inning of pitches or a couple of ABs from the Futures Game.

Sometimes scouting reports lie too, though. I don’t pretend to get everything right, and there are times I disagree with the scouting consensus. Not easy to disconnect yourself from that but I find it comes easier to me as time passes.

by mrkupe on Jul 23, 2010 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

hudson

I’ve been watching him . . .the fastball/change combo is very legitimate. Hard to say about the breaking ball just yet . . .I personally haven’t seen that many good ones out of him yet, and as teams get more looks at him and word spreads around the league, I suspect that he’ll probably get hit around his fair share of the time. Even still, he’s an awfully intriuging pitcher . . .there’s really not THAT much separating him from Jamie Shields, for example.

by mrkupe on Jul 23, 2010 2:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

Trevor May: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K

http://mvn.com/mlb-tossingtherosin/

by koolkerns101 on Jul 22, 2010 9:37 PM EDT reply actions  

He’s doing pretty well since his demotion.

by auclairkeithbc on Jul 22, 2010 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

i'd hope so

R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9

by doublestix on Jul 22, 2010 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

He’s like a right handed poor man’s version of Matt Moore.

by PhillyFriar on Jul 22, 2010 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

a middle-class man’s version maybe.

by auclairkeithbc on Jul 22, 2010 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Matt Lollis

The Padres jumped him (not Keyvius Sampson) up to Ft. Wayne. In his first start tonight, nothing too interesting:
5 IP, 6H, 2 ER, 2K 2BB

Even though he was selected from a JuCo last year, he’s still just 19 (turns 20 the week after the season ends), he’s huge, and he has good stuff. An interesting guy to keep an eye on.

And in that game, Jonathan Galvez is 3-3 with 3 homers. He’s been (yet another) disappointment among the Padres’ lower levels this year.

by realitypolice on Jul 22, 2010 9:41 PM EDT reply actions  

Martin Perez

6ip’s, 2hits, OER, 1bb, 2k’s

Another good outing. Starting to put it together?

by BryceHarper on Jul 22, 2010 9:58 PM EDT reply actions  

Damn, just got done finishing his line when you posted.

Don’t you know I got dibs on Perez?

"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra

by Kerm on Jul 22, 2010 10:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Wow

Has the guy ever pitched 7 innings in his life?

"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra

by Kerm on Jul 22, 2010 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

never mind, just saw he did a few weeks ago

"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra

by Kerm on Jul 22, 2010 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Just gave up a 2 run shot

Probably the last time they bring him out for the 7th.

"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra

by Kerm on Jul 22, 2010 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

yep stretching out

they haven’t really let him go more than 5, than 6, now trying beyond 7. Still a nice outing.

by BryceHarper on Jul 22, 2010 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

sorry kerm

I guess we’ll have to do battle with our love of Martin. lol

by BryceHarper on Jul 22, 2010 10:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hey no problem

It’s good to know I’m not his only stalker.

87 pitches according to Milb, didn’t they have him on a 60 pitch count to start the year?

"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra

by Kerm on Jul 22, 2010 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Now

If you were following me on Twitter, you would have known before the milb update. :)

by mrkupe on Jul 22, 2010 10:31 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

trust me kupe

if i had/understood a twitter, i’d totally be following you

Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson

by gore51 on Jul 22, 2010 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

It's definitely worth getting an account

I always thought it was like myspace/facebook but it’s a very valuable thing to use I have to say.

http://bullpenbanter.com

by gatling on Jul 23, 2010 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions  

main reason I signed up was for the MLB draft

twitter is great for both draft coverage and trade deadline stuff

JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook

by laxtonto on Jul 23, 2010 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

I found myself checking certain people's prior to signing up

Goldstein, Law, Callis, et al. so figured I might as well get an account and make it easier on myself.

by Jeff Reese on Jul 23, 2010 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

That is why I originally signed up

Now it’s an everyday resource. You get short comments from guys like Callis and Law here and there plus everyone links their work there so you don’t have to worry about tracking down an article you want to read, it’s right there to click on.

http://bullpenbanter.com

by gatling on Jul 23, 2010 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

FYI

You can also use any RSS reader for twitters

TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems

by OldProspects on Jul 23, 2010 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

could never get into using a RSS feed...

for some reason twitter works out better for me…

JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook

by laxtonto on Jul 23, 2010 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Good lord

That guy is definitely not me.

@mr_kupe, on the other hand, might have thrown you a few tidbits. If people like it, I’ll do it more frequently and earlier in games in the future.

by mrkupe on Jul 22, 2010 10:50 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Haha

I knew it wasn’t you — that’s what’s comes up when you google Twitter MrKupe.

by Dfarth on Jul 22, 2010 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Twitter?

what’s that? lol, i’m with Gore, too old school for this stuff.

by BryceHarper on Jul 22, 2010 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

only issue is that i should be new school

i only just got my hs diploma!

Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson

by gore51 on Jul 22, 2010 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

Did you have your graduation party yet?

I’d love to attend, and bring gifts, and scotch.

"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra

by Kerm on Jul 22, 2010 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

grad party=total wash

i got to race off to other school to take a goddamn final! I missed: a) my own grad party, and b) my graduating class’s grad night!

Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson

by gore51 on Jul 22, 2010 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

I was definitely following the updates.

We had updates coming in form you, Scott Lucas, and Jason Cole from that game.

by Tex2044 on Jul 22, 2010 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Kupe

Are you going to do a write-up or a summary on Perez’s outing? It would be appreciated w/ velocity, command, etc.

by BryceHarper on Jul 22, 2010 11:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

I can write something brief

I wasn’t charting tonight, but it was an outing worthy of discussion nonetheless.

Would certainly beat having to write something about Nathan Culp . . .

by mrkupe on Jul 23, 2010 12:12 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Yes, Rangers fans definitely got spoiled tonight

Frisco still isn’t too bad a team despite the Lee trade taking a big chunk of the ML caliber talent, and obviously SA has some notable
names even without Cumberland.

by mrkupe on Jul 22, 2010 11:56 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Christian Colon

SS Wilmington A+ Royals

Continues to improve

Box score

by wilriv21 on Jul 22, 2010 10:09 PM EDT reply actions  

Yonder Alonso

HR #7

1 FOR 3, HR, 2 RUNS, 1 RBI, 2 BB, 0 K

by jepmotors on Jul 22, 2010 10:19 PM EDT reply actions  

for July

.388 /.431 /.627
before tonights game

by casejud on Jul 22, 2010 10:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Teheran

7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 9 K, 9-2 GB/FB

by kempsc on Jul 22, 2010 10:50 PM EDT reply actions  

:-)

is how that makes me feel

by son.of.sourman on Jul 23, 2010 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

Myers

3-4, 2 2B

makes up for last nights horrid game. :)

R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9

by doublestix on Jul 22, 2010 11:16 PM EDT reply actions  

Grant Green

Continues to improve.

2 more hits so far tonight

june: .340/.398/1.036 ops
Junly: .393/.418/1.057 ops

by MagicMike23 on Jul 22, 2010 11:21 PM EDT reply actions  

that's a large .025 spread between BA and OBP

I guess when you’re hitting .393 there is no reason to walk though

by Tex2044 on Jul 22, 2010 11:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

just an fyi

OBP – BA = isoD (aka isoDiscipline)

Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson

by gore51 on Jul 22, 2010 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

His walk rates were passable after april

A’s used to or still do imply a rule about not promoting prospects unless they have1BB for every 10ab’s
23bb in last 278 ab’s is under that, but like you said ocnsidering how much he’s been hitting the last 2 months especially.

by MagicMike23 on Jul 22, 2010 11:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

He's on a four game no K streak

I really don’t think he has much left to prove in A+. Get him to Midland and have him play with Jemile.

by Jeff Reese on Jul 23, 2010 8:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

I guess I need to do this then....

Nixa37, if you read this, I must congratulate you on your argument victory in the Top 20 Pitchers Thread from earlier today regarding Teheran-Ranuado, you definitely got me in terms of knowledge of the Braves and their pitching prospects.

Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson

by gore51 on Jul 22, 2010 11:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thanks, its what I live for ;-)

On a more serious note, I do think this may be a little too aggressive, unless they’re thinking they’ll shut him down at some point. I was more hoping he’d get a taste of AA, so we’ll have to see how this works out.

by nixa37 on Jul 23, 2010 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'm really jealous of the Braves minorleague pitching

Possibly 4 top 50 pitchers? That’s crazy. Teheran, Vizcaino, Delgado, and Minor. Then you add in the surprise in Beachy and it’s getting ridiculous. I am very interested to see how Teheran does at AA. It did make me feel a little better when I went to look up his stats to see that he’s 3 months older than Martin Perez.

by Tex2044 on Jul 23, 2010 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions  

Closer to 2 than 3

Not that it really matters. Puts into perspective how aggressively Perez has been pushed though.

by nixa37 on Jul 23, 2010 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions  

nice

I was wondering how on earth they could promote JT before RD, the same time makes some sense though…

by St.Steve on Jul 23, 2010 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions  

Ryan Kalish

2/4 with SB

Passed the AA test, so far so good in AAA.

R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9

by Dewey Finn on Jul 22, 2010 11:58 PM EDT reply actions  

kalish

how does kalish rank next to B Jackson and trout?

by Rupert Pupkin on Jul 23, 2010 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

Bo Jackson – big gap – Mike Trout – sizable gap – Ryan Kalihs

Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson

by gore51 on Jul 23, 2010 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

Personally

I don’t think Kalish gets the respect he deserves. The guy has shown good power, tremendous plate discipline (BBs & Ks are almost even), good speed, good defense. He has done this at a young age in the high levels of the minors. If I were to create another Top 25 list, he’d be in it. Seriously, what else does he need to do to prove he is an elite hitting prospect?

R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9

by Dewey Finn on Jul 23, 2010 12:45 AM EDT up reply actions  

dewey

how do u rate kalish with trout and b jackson

thanks gore

by Rupert Pupkin on Jul 23, 2010 1:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

haha, i was kidding lol

it’s Trout-Kalish-Jackson, Kalish and Jackson are closer than Trout-Kalish

Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson

by gore51 on Jul 23, 2010 1:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

Trout, Kalish, BJackson

I don’t the gap between Trout and Kalish is as big as some might argue. Kalish is proving himself to being a complete hitter at the upper levels in the minors.

R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9

by Dewey Finn on Jul 23, 2010 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think he gets respect

It’s just that sometimes respect manifests itself in different ways. Sometimes people say, “I like him, he’s going to be an All Star” and sometimes people say, “i like him, he’s not going to be anything special, but he’s a third tier starting outfielder or a really good fourth outfielder for me.”. Projecting any long-term major league outcome for a prospect is praise in of itself, but beyond that I think you probably see more variation in opinion than the BAs of the world would have you believe.

by mrkupe on Jul 23, 2010 2:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

Alex Liddi

2/4 with HR

R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9

by Dewey Finn on Jul 23, 2010 12:05 AM EDT reply actions  

4th straight game

…they should send down Huntington & Nutting, because they aren’t ready, either. - royshowell

by Marinerfanjake on Jul 23, 2010 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions  

I do quite like him

I think he might need two full seasons of AAA after this year before he’s ready, but he’s a very legitimate talent whose breakout was masked by overly friendly environmental factors and is continuing to make progress this year.

by mrkupe on Jul 23, 2010 2:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

Cory Vaughn...

4-5 with a 2B. Hitting .487/.543/.795 over his last 10 games, .326/.403/.620 overall. He had a problem making contact in college, but it hasn’t shown up yet in the minors. Probably deserves a trip up to the sally league for the season’s last month.

I don’t know why, but this kid intrigues me. Maybe it’s the bloodlines. I was always a fan of Greg Vaughn.

by slamcactus on Jul 23, 2010 12:16 AM EDT reply actions  

More Braves

Matt Lipka – 3-4, 2B,HR(1), 2 SB – Kid has far exceeded what I expected of him! He’s putting up numbers, dare I say, better than Heyward did in the GCL at the same age.

Freddie Freeman – 3-5, CS – Dude just continues to rake!

by Jay212033 on Jul 23, 2010 3:06 AM EDT reply actions  

Also

Yasser Gomez(30 y.o. Cuba defector) made his debut last night in AA going 2-2, 2 BB. Nice debut, he may get a look in Sept with McLouth looking like crap!

by Jay212033 on Jul 23, 2010 3:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

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