Trade Rumor Thread part two
by ADLC on Jul 21, 2010 7:41 PM EDT
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PrintOk, since the last thread seemed to be pretty popular I'm starting a new one. 10 days till the trade deadline, lets see what people are thinking/hearing
I figured it would be a good time to throw up a central gathering point for those rumors, or just an open discussion of the proposals.
Ideally this gets rec'd so we can follow the rumors/deals in one place rather then have 100 threads for different players.
Here are some players I expect to get moved (or be shopped) before the deadline: (also known as minimum word filler)
Ty Wiggington
Carlos Zambrano (if he has any demand)
Christian Guzman
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You could also add Jose Bautista to the list. Supposedly the Giants are interested in Bautista.
"Dodger fans aren’t happy when foul balls get into their section, because it interferes with their playing with the beachball"- Mike Krukow
Guy's playing so far over his head
That it would be a very wise time to do it, if someone can pay present value instead of expected value.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
I'm not a fan of going after him either
that said, if Heyman is right and all we’d need to give up is Emmanuel Burriss-well then I make that deal in a second
Proud father of Mike Krukow (who is more than 3 times my age)
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Still cheering for Kevin Frandsen
John Bowker: One of the 3 best OF's on the Giants roster
I'm going to laugh when he turns back into Jose Bautista after Anthopoulos trades him
I don’t think there’s a GM that has impressed me more this year than him.
Not sure I agree. Over his head? Maybe…fluke? Hell no. We’re also getting to a point where this is sustained production all the way from the last month of LAST YEAR’s season. He’s always had a pretty good eye at the plate; they’ve tweaked his swing and his bat speed through the ball is now ridiculous. Alex Gonzalez’s 17 homeruns w/ the Jays was a fluke; Bautista’s homeruns are legitimate.
Here's a guy with a pretty extended history
The annals are littered with guys who had one big season, and a lot of those guys really only had a big half season. See, e.g. Ben Zobrist, Brady Anderson, Bret Boone, Luis Gonzalez, etc. Maybe he’s a little better now than he was before, but not that much better.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Why do people like Carmona still?
I know he had that great season in 2007 and he induces a ton of grounders… but still.
His contact rate and whiff percentage are at career-worst levels, and his 64/49 K/BB ratio is pretty ugly in 123 innings.
Plus, he’s owed $6.1M for 2011, so it’s not like he’s super cheap.
He’s a useful pitcher, but he doesn’t really seem to be a great guy to chase at the trade deadline.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jul 22, 2010 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
-1
He’s an extreme grounball pitcher. Your silly peripheral rules do not apply. He’d be wanted because he has tossed 123 IP and allowed a .338 Slugging Percentage and a .325 On Base Percentage
the peripherals are pretty telling as to why he's been relatively successful this year
BABIP against is way down (.272), infield fly percentage is way up (12%) and HR/FB percentage is way down (6%). The regression will come sooner or later.
A good slg and OBP against doesn’t really mean much if they’re built upon fluky performance that will not be sustainable.
Yeah, but he's not "extreme enough"
A 57% GB rate is good, but not crazy good like the 67% mark that Tim Hudson’s put up in 2010.
A 1.31 K/BB is going to be an issue no matter how you slice it. Particularly given the numbers that jibs listed above.
His BABIP is 26 points above his career mark, his infield fly percentage is 5.2% above his career mark, and his HR/FB is 4.2% below his career mark.
Just look at his ERA, FIP and xFIP, because they tell a remarkably similar story for his career.
career ERA: 4.49
career FIP: 4.50
career xFIP: 4.51
Sounds to me like this guy’s true talent is somewhere around a 4.50 ERA, and that’s just not that good. It’s useful, but you shouldn’t have to give up a bunch of talent and then pay $6M a year for it.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jul 23, 2010 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Okay
You have to remember, though, that these stats give an accurate picture of what his performance was. We’re still talking about a 26 year old pitcher, who has had at least one full year with an xFIP of 3.88, which also happens to have been his last full year without getting injured. I’m not saying that he should be valued as an ace, but he’s more valuable than your typical 4.50 ERA pitcher
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Jul 23, 2010 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, but he's not close to being the pitcher that he once was in 2007
2007: 81.7% contact rate, 8.6% whiff rate, 57.7% first-strike rate, 5.73 K/9, 2.55 BB/9, 64% GB rate, 3.88 xFIP
2010: 85.2% contact rate, 6.4% whiff rate, 55.7% first-strike rate, 4.67 K/9, 3.58 BB/9, 57% GB rate, 4.64 xFIP
It’s just not even close.
He’s missing less bats, giving up more contact, getting behind in the count more often, striking out less batters, walking more batters and inducing less grounders.
He’s not even remotely close to being the pitcher that he was in 2007, and I think that his ZiPS forecasted 4.43 FIP for the rest of the season is a pretty fair reflection of his true talent.
He’s a solid back-of-the-rotation pitcher that can eat some innings and he has a little upside, but I have a tough time believing that he’ll ever be the pitcher that he in 2007 again. And it’s not like he’ll be that cheap when he’s owed nearly $8M through 2011 and presumably Cleveland will want some quality talent in return as well.
As I said, he’s a guy worth having around, but I’m not giving up some good prospects in order to pay him $6M.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jul 23, 2010 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Sure
I don’t think we’re disagreeing; he’s not as valuable as a 3.88 xFIP pitcher, but he’s not quite a 4.50 pitcher either. He’s somewhere in between
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Jul 23, 2010 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions
*your usual 4.50 pitcher either
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Jul 23, 2010 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions
FIP is always going to underrate guys who pitch to weak contact
If the ability to miss bats is considered a repeatable skill, then the ability to half-miss bats also has to be one.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
But it also does mean they'll be more prone to good and bad luck than other guys
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Yeah, but it's not like his FIP is out of line with his ERA and xFIP
As a 26-year-old with nearly 700 innings of 4.50 FIP/ERA/xFIP, I have a tough time believing that he’s much better than that.
A big part of the reason that his FIP is at 4.50 is because of his above-average HR/9, and the primary reason for that is the strong GB rate that you’re presumably referencing.
He absolutely gets credit for his strong batted ball profile, in the form of a low HR/9.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jul 23, 2010 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the Padres could use him.
Their pitching is very overrated and he might be the 2nd or 3rd best starter on that team right now. At least bounce Correia from the rotation. The only issue is the 6.1 million but maybe if the Indians kick in some cash, the Padres will send over a better prospect.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jul 22, 2010 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I would argue that San Diego is a bad spot for Carmona
His best skill is the ability to keep the ball in the park, but that’s somewhat mitigated by pitching in a pitcher’s haven like Petco.
I’d like to see what he could do in Philly or Cincinnati.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jul 22, 2010 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Please....
please, please, please make that offer to the Indians, haha
"God, I'm from Cleveland. When is it going to be our time?"
Eat all the salary
Kinda like how he got that guitarist guy, ya know., hah
"Swingles is Day to Day: IE: He’s being turned into a zombie, but they don’t want the world to know for another 5 days (retroactive)" ~Zonis
only the fact that he's a quality start machine...
any team in contention would love a guy who keeps his team in it until the later innings. People overreact to his low strikeout #‘s. The fact is, he’s a solid pitcher who knows how to get big league hitters out.
Paul Maholm
Dodgers are rumored to be asking around about him. Pirates fans are all about Dee Gordon and James McDonald judging from various websites.
Paul Maholm...
with the Pirates kicking in some salary. Dee Gordon is a possibilty considering that the dodgers traded Carlos Santana for Casey Blake. Seems like a similar trade might happen.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
I'd be shocked if they got that much for Maholm
He’s solid, but damn that would be overpaying by the Dodgers.
I think the Pirates make this move
if they can absolutley fleece the Dodgers. I know Dodgers fans won’t want to hear this but I think its a possibility. Something like Maholm + Dotel + Cash for Gordon + Withrow/Martin + thrown is in something a cash strapped organization lacking the best trading track record may due out of desperation.
Hopefully that throw in is Sands =p
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 22, 2010 8:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Why would they do that?
If they’re willing to give up that kind of package, they could land Haren. Maholm is a solid pitcher, but he’s not going to land that kind of prospect.
Agreed.....
I just hope Maholm continues his recent improvement, because people seem to think that he is closer to 2008 form than 2009 form. I think it is more likely the latter, especially with age.
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Jul 22, 2010 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions
Well you could argue
Maholm has been better this year (slight margin, although Haren has been much better based on actually important stats, K/9, FIP etc.) so he may have a slight bit more perceived value or at least isn’t that far behind. His contract is much better (see Dodgers financial struggles + Blake/Santana trade) plus they are throwing in Dotel.
Still, I see your point, and stepping down a notch the Pirates may have to “settle” for something like Gordon + Gould + Sands (or maybe not sands? tough to get a read on his value imo)
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 22, 2010 10:25 AM EDT up reply actions
Thoughts on that deal?
Maholm + Dotel + cash = Gordon + Gould + Sands?
What do you thinks realisitc if you throw in Meek or Hanrahan instead of Dotel?
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 22, 2010 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Toss in Aaron Miller and Ethan Martin
and it looks more realistic
by SeanMillerSavior on Jul 22, 2010 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions
To add to Gordon, Gould, and Sands? Idk, i think if you added Miller and Martin you’d have to at least add Withrow and Webster to get the Pirates to take that offer.
"Stop exploding you cowards!!!"
That's ridiculous
There’s no chance there will ever be a deal where the Dodgers trade Gordon, Gould, Sands, Miller, Martin, Withrow and Webster for Maholm, Dotel and cash.
If you add Kemp, maybe.
Maybe.
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Jul 22, 2010 9:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't know what I was thinking
I was just trying to fleece the Pirates, and I apologize for doing so.
Just to be safe I’d add Billingsley.
"Stop exploding you cowards!!!"
I think that guy was being sarcastic
Because Gordon/Gould/Sands is obviously more than enough to land Maholm and Dotel.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jul 23, 2010 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions
Now I'm confused.
Do people really think that the Pirates can get Dee Gordon in a package for Paul Maholm?
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jul 23, 2010 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions
unfortunately, some Pirates fans do
based off of the “They gave up Carlos Santana for Casey Blake” and “Paul Maholm is a lot better than people credit him for” arguments
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
How are those arguments related though?
So basically, because Maholm is underrated and the Dodgers have overpaid in terms of prospects for non-star players in the past… LA is going to give up their best prospect for Maholm?
What kind of reason is that?
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jul 23, 2010 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
They're not
The trend I’ve noticed is that most Pirate fans extremely overrate everyone in the system.
don't ask me
that’s just what I’ve been seeing. Pirates fans (like most fans of teams), are just wayyy overrating players in their own system.
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
Not only that
Maholm actually ISN’T underrated and is actually terribly average. It boggles my mind that people think top prospects would be traded for him.
"Stop exploding you cowards!!!"
At Satchel question (and then the last paragraph is a more general discourse)
Now I’m confused.
Do people really think that the Pirates can get Dee Gordon in a package for Paul Maholm?
No. First Gordon is more than worth Maholm straight up. If you throw in cash with Maholm TO THE DODGERS it gets closer, but its still borderline. Throw in Dotel and the Dodgers may throw give Gordon plus a decent prospect back (Gould/Sands). If anyone actually read what I wrote I asked about Sands, what his value is/was, etc, but instead people just gave back sarcastic and attacking remarks.
Given the Dodgers history and situation, I want someone to explain to me via a thought out, logical argument why the Pirates FO shouldn’t 1) offer Maholm, Dotel (both who the Dodgers have inquired on) and Cash for Gordon, Gould and Sands (not really expecting a positive answer) but then NOT settle for less than Gordon + Gould/Sands and a throw in.
That’s a #3 prospect (if you use Sickels) in a deep, but not top loaded system. That #3 is a SS who’s value is tied in his tools, is a solid risk, isn’t particularly young for his level, and isn’t super hot. It’s also a #8 prospect who is a pitcher in the low minors (far from a sure thing) and who is also solidly behind the Dodgers depth in prospects (Martin/Withrow). Yes he has the draft pedigree which knocks his value up a little. Last is Sands a guy I admitted I knew little to nothing about. He’s crushing the ball and is obviously on some helium (HM in Sickles rankings) but he’s playing 1B so he needs to be crushing the ball to have any value (again, I know nothing about his actual defensive value).
I’ve just started reading this blog alot this summer and I’ve learned alot and appreciate the knowledge here. Apparently though, knowledge comes with arrogance and a propensity to be a douchebag. You can take that as you want and determine who specifically I’m talking about, but I don’t appreciate it. I’m trying to learn and calling me stupid has no positive effect.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 24, 2010 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm still a bit unsure on the inclusion of Octavio Dotel
He’s a pretty bad reliever, and even if the Pirates cover his entire cost, I have no idea how his inclusion makes up for the difference between Gordon-Maholm plus the inclusion of a top-150 guy who’s carrying a lot of helium like Jerry Sands
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
Agreed.
Even if you pay for part of Maholm’s contract and include Dotel, who isn’t really worth much, I see absolutely no reason to think that LA would give up Gordon for that.
He’s a top-level shortstop prospect with huge upside that’s already in Double-A. Those are really, really rare. You don’t give one of those up to get a relatively cheap No. 3 starter and an okay set-up man.
Giving up Gordon would mean getting an star-level player in return, and Maholm simply isn’t one of those.
I mean, Dan Haren just got traded for freaking Joe Saunders, Pat Corbin, Rafael Rodriguez and Tyler Skaggs. Do you really think that Maholm can land the Pirates Gordon? I sure don’t.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jul 26, 2010 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Maholm is having one of his worst seasons
His walk rate is up, his ground balls are down slightly and his Ks are down. Haren is having a much better statistical season despite the ERA difference. I’m sure the Dodgers do want Maholm because of how much cheaper he is than Haren, but I doubt that they give up their premium guys in order to do it.
With the reliever thrown in, the Pirates could probably land something like Ethan Martin + Andrew Lambo. I’d also see if I could grab Scott Elbert cheaply since he’s gone AWOL. The Pirates can promise him an MLB rotation spot.
Ugh
I hope we don’t touch Lambo. I think y’all are discounting the Dodgers irrational stupidity. At least that’s what I’m counting on.
Do you just think Gordon is untouchable?
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 22, 2010 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions
For Paul Maholm he is
I’m not very high on Lambo, but he has some upside and would be a decent throw in.
I don't see
Maholm getting moved for less than Gordon. NH has come out and said he needs to be blown away or get young, cheap ML ready talent.
Ely + Gould + Sands for Dotel + Maholm + Cash maybe if that’s what we are looking for. Might have to step down from Gould a bit, but I’m not sure who to.
Our ML + MIL OF depth is such that we will probably only take elite sure things (someone like Jennings or Dom Brown) so I don’t see us taking Lambo. I see us going after Sands > Lambo.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 22, 2010 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions
I could see something like that
Gould would be the prize of that package. I wouldn’t call any of those sure things though. Sands has become interesting, but he’s still an all bat prospect that will have to hit to be any good.
I was talking
about if we took an OF. I know its dumb to worry about position over talent most of the time, but the OF is the only spot where the Pirates aren’t lacking now into the future
ML - Cutch, Tabata, Jones, Milledge
Minor Leagues - Presley, Marte, Grossman
When you have three guys like Presley, Marte, and Grossman and two guys pretty well locked into your OF for the next 5 years (Cutch, Tabata) you don’t take anymore Presleys, Martes or Grossman, which is what Lambo is.
That aside, I’d take that package, although I’d rather give up Ely + Sands for Gordon + semi-prospect X.
Gordon + Gould + C- prospect.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 22, 2010 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Much rather have...
Ethan Martin than Gould. If you guys are taking Gordon out, I think the most likely package is Martin+Elbert for Maholm.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
Are you guys CRAZY?
Just wondering. I wouldn;’t give up a red cent or, any prospect for a Paul maholm.
A Pirate would wet himself pitching a game that counts for something – lol
This is MUCH more likely
Though Ethan Martin would still be an overpay for Maholm. Lambo seems to have lost all his value…ugh.
"Stop exploding you cowards!!!"
Perhaps
But picking up the check generally gets a better return. Martin is clearly behind Withrow and Miller at this point so I could see the Dodgers dealing him.
I agree with that notion
But still too much for someone as average as Maholm.
"Stop exploding you cowards!!!"
Martin
is too much for Maholm + Dotel +Cash?
By himself?
Are you crazy? If that’s all they’d offer I’d laugh and walk away, then laugh again before I’d get very far.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 22, 2010 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Uhh
No one said Martin for Maholm + Dotel + cash. You said some ridiculous trade of Sands, Gould, and Gordon for those players and cash, but that was just insane.
I really don’t know where you came up with me saying Martin for Maholm + Dotel + cash.
"Stop exploding you cowards!!!"
because
thats what this entire conversation has been about. The Pirates won’t move just Maholm to LA, its going to be a package of Maholm, Dotel, and cash, and we’re going to expect something in return.
Gordon + Sands + Gould is a pipedream. Gordon + Sands/Gould + trash isn’t. The Pirates won’t make the trade if they don’t get an semi-elite player back. Let’s not get carried away with how good Gordon is. He’s a semi-young (for his level) SS with tools and a mediocre year. This isn’t Montero or Smoak.
Rumor is the Pirates have asked for Ely and Gordon back. That’s probably too much, but Ely > Sands/Gould and since the above trade was at least considered a legitimate asking price and not a Hanrahan for Feliz (which people are blowing way out of proportion) request that was used to make a point (Read : Hanrahan isn’t cheap and thus not being shopped), it’s not crazy to ask for Gordon and another solid prospect.
Maholm + Cash is borderline acceptable for Gordon (again, a toolsy shortstop who is far from a sure thing) and you throw in Dotel and you get more.
I will agree with you that just Maholm for Gordon is crazy.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 24, 2010 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions
That is a truly AWFUL trade. It makes my brain hurt to see offers that are this terrible. WPoeug;alkkwdgpoaiugsajdg;l
The Dodgers don’t need anymore terrible trades, please don’t give Ned ideas :(
"Stop exploding you cowards!!!"
+1
Id do the plus a million thing except I.m only one guy. Shoot, james McDonald might be as good as Paul Mahol Irf you just stuck him in the rotation for a while – or Charlie Haeger
I agree on James
Not Charlie, because Charlie is much below average, but James could be about as good.
"Stop exploding you cowards!!!"
Maholm is being underrated
He has a career xFIP of 4.32. He’s not a great pitcher, but he is a solid #3 inning eater who is signed cheaply next year.
Sure
I’d like him better next year but, I wouldn’t pay any kind of price for him to impact my team’s pennant race – unless we were just terrible at 4-5 starter spot. Id much rather have a guy like Ted Lilly down the stretch.
maholm has never pitched an important game.
Well in that case
trade for Jamie Moyer. He’s 47 and oozes with experience. Obviously that makes him vastly more valuable.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 23, 2010 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions
That’s not a solid 3 pitcher. The Dodgers rotation is good, but after Kuroda they have Padilla who isn’t great and Ely or Mcdonald. If Maholm came to the Dodgers he would literally be the 5th starter. I feel MUCH more confident going with Padilla in the 4 spot than I would with Maholm. Next year Maholm could be the #3 starter for the Dodgers, but I would be sad because it would mean the Dodgers would have one of the worst #3 starters in baseball.
"Stop exploding you cowards!!!"
Yes he is
What would you consider Joe Blanton? He has a career xFIP of 4.42.
How about Ted Lilliy? 4.35
Matt Garza? 4.44
Aaron Cook? 4.42
Mark Buehrle? 4.23
And it goes on like that. The offer was ridiculous, but so is your opinion of Paul Maholm.
Blanton is also extremely average
All of those pitchers are very average.
I don’t really subscribe much into xFIP anyway, I’d rather go off FIP, K/9, BB/9, H/9, K/BB, etc…
"Stop exploding you cowards!!!"
Depends on the sample size
xFIP is the exact same thing as FIP but with a normalized, league-average HR/FB ratio.
For smaller sample sizes, such as a season or less, it makes far more sense to use xFIP rather than FIP. The latter is subject to huge fluctuations in luck on HR/FB that the former simply doesn’t have to deal with.
If we’re talking about multiple seasons, I can see the argument for FIP, because HR/FB does actually contain some skill; it’s just that it takes far more than one season’s worth of data to determine where that skill approximately lies.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jul 24, 2010 2:54 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m just not big into the idea that all pitchers should get a normalized homerun rate. It’s fairly obvious that not all pitchers all the same amount of homeruns and such. It’s why I’d rather just go with FIP over xFIP most times.
"Stop exploding you cowards!!!"
It's perfectly fine to use FIP in large sample sizes, but when you're talking about only 100-200 innings, there can be a good deal of luck influencing a pitcher's HR/FB
xFIP does take into account the number of fly balls that a pitcher gives up. It’s obviously not perfect given that it regresses all HR/FB’s to a single, league-average figure, but I would argue that in small sample sizes that’s going to be more accurate than going with normal HR/FB and FIP as a function of that.
FIP and xFIP both absolutely have their uses, because over time the skill in HR/FB is fleshed out and FIP becomes a more accurate depiction of a pitcher’s ability. But I absolutely prefer to go with a regressed HR/FB in small sample sizes.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jul 26, 2010 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Maholm's career FIP is 4.29
Yes, they are average, but they throw a lot of innings and are consistently average. That is a #3 starter.
Maholm (and Blanton) would be the number 5 starter on the Dodgers. This leads me to believe that there is absolutely no reason to trade for them when the Dodgers could just use Ely, Mcdonald, or Monasterious in the 5th spot and not have to give up anything, though there would be slightly less production.
"Stop exploding you cowards!!!"
Why because one dumb trade happened
would another dumb trade happen? People learn from their mistakes.
"Stop exploding you cowards!!!"
If Gordon and Mcdonald (either/or really) go for that number 4 pitcher at best
My brain will explode in rage.
"Stop exploding you cowards!!!"
Number 4 pitcher at best?
Maholm is a #3 innings eater at worst and a #2 in a good season. Plus if you add cash and a reliever (Dotel/Meek/Hanrahan) Gordon + more is easily obtainable, especially if its one of the two younger, cheaply controlled relievers (who have frankly been much better).
I hope you’re brain is ready to explode because with your fiasco of a GM coupled with financial pressure Gordon goes from a small possibility to a pseudo-lock with a chance for much more. Santana/Blake all over again buddy.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 22, 2010 8:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, #4 pitcher AT BEST
He has a career 4.29 ERA, 4.32 FIP, and 4.33 xFIP (those may be switched around but they are all correct)…THAT IS AVERAGE.
The Dodgers have 4 SP better than Maholm, possibly 5 if Mcdonald actually gets a shot.
This is bolded so it gets through to you.
I like how you’re ready to crap talk here when your team has literally been the joke of the league for 2 decades, that’s a smart tactic.
"Stop exploding you cowards!!!"
Talk
crap. When have I talked to crap? You came on here and started insulting my intelligence when I asked a question. I didn’t make a statement. I asked a question. Instead of a helpful answer, I received a personal attack.
The Dodgers have 4 SP better than Maholm, possibly 5 if Mcdonald actually gets a shot.
This is bolded so it gets through to you.
I like how you’re ready to crap talk here when your team has literally been the joke of the league for 2 decades, that’s a smart tactic.
Again, you insult me. Explain to me why I should bother listening to anything you say since it comes with a dagger.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 24, 2010 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Okay
I’ve thought about this briefly and I’m not helping anything soooo..
I’m sorry. We’ve gotten off on the wrong foot (Ivdown and others), and it’s my fault. I’m not here to argue with malice or make enemies. I’d much rather have constructive discussion and learn about baseball. So if we let bygones be bygones I’d much appreciate it.
I will say this in my defense though. While I did (somewhat) open myself up to deserved attacks because I’m a Pirates fan and because I’m not an encyclopedia of baseball knowledge doesn’t make my opinion wrong or worth less and doesn’t mean I can be insulted.
Again, I’m sorry and this will be my last post on this thread.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 24, 2010 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm sure I've come off as an asshole, and I'm sorry about that
But if there’s one thing that gets me riled up it’s talking trades, prospects, and defending players on my team :) I don’t mean any disrespect, I just really get into these types of talks, and I take proposals I believe to be bad too personally for whatever reason, haha.
I see where you are coming from, you want as much as you can get for one of your best starters. I’d feel the same if I was in your shoes. You do make some good points, I just think you might be expecting a little too much for your players. I wouldn’t mind getting Maholm, Dotel, and cash, but here is what I’d propose for that:
John Ely
Nathan Eovaldi
Scott Van Slyke
Not the best of prospects, but Eovaldi can hit close to 100 out of relief, but still does pretty well as a starter (needs to develop secondary pitches, though), and he made the HiA all-star team this year (if that means anything…which Idk if it really does, haha).
Ely showed for a couple months that he has the ability to pitch well in the MLB, but then just hit a rough patch, or may have just been figured out, it’s hard to tell so far. He’s back in the minors working out his problems right now though. Check out his minor league stats pre 2010, he’s been damn good.
As for Scott Van Slyke, he had his best year last year in the Cal League, and struggled in AA this year, so he was sent back down to HiA. He seems to be a fringe type of prospect, but he might be a throw in prospect with Ely and Eovaldi for this trade.
"Stop exploding you cowards!!!"
Haven't read anything
other than local beat hack speculation, but I personally feel that Corey Hart ends up with ATL…for what exactly I can not say, but something like a Delgado and other low-level pitching pieces sound like it could be worked out from both ends.
From what they asked for from SF
I dont think that would cut it.
Exactly what I was thinking
If they wanted Bumgarner and Sanchez, then I don’t see them settling for Delgado and low-level pitching pieces
it was
Bum or Sanchez….Maybe Minor and some other pieces, either way the Braves have the young starting pitching talent the crew need.
Sorry
I meant OR, not and… just meant that it was major league ready pitching… and Delgado and low-level prospects aren’t major league ready…
Either way, worth more than normal Hart
You have to believe he’ll keep it up for the rest of the year and next year to think that price is even close to worth it.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
I could see it...
Hart would be a decent fit in Atlanta and most likely guarantee them first place. Delgado or Vizcaino and another B level prospect could get it done. Maybe Delgado and Minor. Tough to trade both but it could be worth it.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
It goes along with what...
they are asking. Both Minor and Delgado are around high level B prospects. Hart is worth about that much.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
As a Giants fan
I hope Atl gets Hart
Proud father of Mike Krukow (who is more than 3 times my age)
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Still cheering for Kevin Frandsen
John Bowker: One of the 3 best OF's on the Giants roster
As a Braves fan
I hope SanFran gets Hart
"Check out this bitchin' homemade tesla coil!"
by bwellnjonesco on Jul 22, 2010 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
As a Brewer fan
I would give Hart away if someone would take Randy Wolf too.
"I agree but dont agree"
by juggernaut400 on Jul 22, 2010 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Truce
Give him to San Diego
Proud father of Mike Krukow (who is more than 3 times my age)
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Still cheering for Kevin Frandsen
John Bowker: One of the 3 best OF's on the Giants roster
by Gobroks on Jul 22, 2010 3:57 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
The Padres are buyers!
I love it!
Id like to see it. They can afford to give up pitching talent since anybody can be a good starter in San Diego right?
Hart would help them I think. I have NO idea why everybody is so down on Corey Hart. He’s a decent ballplayer, in his prime, decent glove too.
His defense is supposedly below average
he’s probably not as bad as UZR says he is (-10 IIRC), but he’s not a great defender. He is also having a career year:
2010 OPS+: 142
Career OPS+: 111
Getting Hart now would be buying high and I think this level of performance is unsustainable
Proud father of Mike Krukow (who is more than 3 times my age)
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Still cheering for Kevin Frandsen
John Bowker: One of the 3 best OF's on the Giants roster
RE: "Carlos Zambrano (if he has any demand)"
Well then why not include anybody with an albatross contract who’s underperforming.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jul 21, 2010 10:56 PM EDT reply actions
Ted Lilly
Quick question to throw out there…
If your team is looking for a SP and Ted Lilly is available, what would you be willing to give up to get him?
I’d appreciate names, but a general overview would work, too.
tough call
He’s a Type A at the end of the year, so the Cubs would need a really strong offer for him. Potentially big off-season for the team with regard to setting up next year’s draft, with Lilly being a Type A and Lee and Ramirez both being Type Bs.
Of course, I’m guessing the Cubs management will respond to this opportunity by resigning all three players to 4 year deals.
I remember seeing something a couple of weeks back
where it was mentioned the Cubs would trade Lilly with an understanding they’d re-sign him in the offseason. The Cubs 1st rounder would be protected at this point, so a team would be looking at supplemental and 2nd round picks for him at best. Great start last night notwithstanding, I’d say Lilly could bring back a B grade prospect in trade though it should be from an NL team only. I’m not sure he’d survive the AL at this point.
http://bullpenbanter.com
Ramirez
Isn’t a free agent next year that I’m aware of. He’ll be playing for a huge 2012 contract – club option – next season.
Lee and Lilly are though.
Here’s a crazy idea to float out there for fun – if the Cubs could get out from under the Zambrano contact somehow and with the Derek Lee money … big offer to Albert Pujols?!?!?
No, Im not a Cubs fan, though Im sure Id make a few of them happy with that thought eh?
Ramirez can opt out of his contract after this season
by Outshined_One on Jul 23, 2010 7:31 PM EDT up reply actions
You think he's going to opt out of $16M for 2011?
I know that he’s absolutely killing the ball right now, but I have a tough time believing that Aramis will turn down a $16M salary for 2011.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jul 23, 2010 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions
How to get Lilly
The Cubs should give Lilly away to the first team willing to take Zambrano’s contract too
The Cubs are going to pass up those picks?
I’d consider the Zambrano deal spent money for the most part and just wait to deal him for other bad contracts to fill slots on a rebuilding team. Hold Lilly and Lee, take the picks next year. Getting out from under the big contracts would matter a lot more if the team had some legitimate major league cornerstones on the roster – they really don’t other than perhaps Starlin Castro. As is, they might as well just focus on player development.
Prince
Gordon and Hudson from White Sox to Mil for Feilder? Makes a ton of sense. White sox move vizquel to 2nd and start viceido with konerko at 1st and feilder Dhing?
What do you think?
No
The crew view Hudson as a #4 and need higher ceiling pitching in return. I love GBecks, and I know Melvin & co do as well—but they will look to re-sign Weeks to a reasonable deal and with Esco there is not much of a real need for Gordy…The sox simply do not have the prospects to make this work, even though Prince would be a perfect fit for them.
I concur
"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra
+1
I concur as well but it makes you wonder: where is the fit for Fielder? I’m not sure there is one.
the only ones the I have seen
and said from May on have been BOS and SF…They both could use the big bat, have enough prospects [especially pitching] and could actually be able to sign Prince to an extension [and also afford the 17+ MM that is coming his way via arb next year]…
Oswalt rumor
IM a cardinal fan and talks have been Houston has been scouting our minors. So maybe Oswalt for Miller and bryan Anderson and craig? Replaces catcher, sp and 1st base next year. I realize miller is not ready and wont be up that soon. BUt he is a big prospect in a few years.
As a Cardinals fan
you should hate that deal.
It’s quite possible Oswalt will be paid more than he’s worth over the next year and a half. There’s also talk he wants his 2012 team option (15 mil, I believe) guaranteed.
Unless the Astros eat a ton of salary, it’d be tough to stomach giving up big-time talent like Shelby Miller.
http://oursaviorchuck.ytmnd.com/
Agreed
I figure some GM will fork over too much for Oswalt, but I don’t see Mozeliak being that guy. Seems more like a Ruben Amaro move.
http://bullpenbanter.com
REALLY!
Having a rotation of carpenter, wainright and Oswalt in the playoffs for 3 more years is not worth a guy we drafted number 1 next year? Hes years away. We can win now. Even as a Cardinal fan I do this deal, our problem is the money!
MIller is the big peice but he is an unknown.
Anderson is a decent catcher but we cant use him soon.
Craig or any other player JAY?, IM even willing to give them a boggs type too. Are all depth we can afford to lose.
by bigphisig on Jul 22, 2010 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
You're confusing Roy Oswalt with ROY OSWALT
I don’t think he’s the same guy anymore.
Am I missing something?
Lifetime ERA 3.22
This year 3.12
Lifetime Ks/9 7.4
This year 8.5
Lifetime BBs per 9/ 2.1
This year 2.4
… and its not like hes been throwing the ball poorly lately or anything. He tosseda 1-Hitter 2 starts ago. He’ll be 33 in late August, not 43. He’s younger than Chris Carpenter and you don’t see anybody giving him grief about his age.
This after putting up
3.76 and 3.8 FIPs in the two prior years. It’s highly unlikely he’s improved at the age of 33.
http://oursaviorchuck.ytmnd.com/
Player performance is not uniform
I know there is a temptation to paint any kind of lesser performances a pattern of decline, especially in players above the age of thirty, but in reality it doesn’t necessarily work that way. Sometimes a player has a down year, or a couple down years, and then has a big resurgence for awhile.
This is especially true for pitchers, who don’t have nearly as predictable an aging curve as position players. Pitchers are more prone to career ending injuries but they can also sometimes perform at the same high level for a much longer time than a hitter.
In reality, Roy Oswalt has been remarkably consistent for a pitcher, and if 3.76 and 3.80 FIP are a pair of down seasons for him, and the worst seasons of his career… that’s fantastic. You won’t find that kind of consistency from any starter on the trade market this season, including the already-traded Cliff Lee.
It's unlikely
Oswalt puts up another season like this. I realize a career isn’t entirely a bell curve, but it doesn’t stand by much reason. He’s also a very highly compensated player… Oswalt will make 38 million dollars from now until the end of 2012 if his last year does get guaranteed. He’d have to put up 9.5 WAR simply to be worth his contract. How much to be worth Miller alone? Let’s say Shelby Miller is between the 26th and 50th best prospect in baseball. Victor Wang values those guys at 4.44 WAR.
For Miller alone, Oswalt would have to be worth 13.9 wins above replacement over 2 2/5 seasons. To say that’s unrealistic would be kind.
http://oursaviorchuck.ytmnd.com/
I'm amazed how few people understand
Two important factors:
1. The value of a marginal win is significantly higher to a team contending for the postseason. A playoff appearance is very valuable, and making it deep into the playoffs is even moreso. So basically your calculations are completely bunk until you factor that in. And it’s a very important factor, likely almost doubling the value of each win.
2. An elite player like Roy Oswalt costs extra. Ace starting pitchers, middle of the order power bats—these players don’t get moved without a serious price involved. Even moreso when they are the face of a franchise like Oswalt is.
And no, I don’t think it’s that unlikely that Oswalt continues to perform like this. 6 wins may be pushing it but I don’t think 5 is unreasonable at all. And I don’t see any evidence that he has declined at all going by his velocity and peripherals over the past years. If anything I think you’re looking at normal variation, and perhaps him being mentally out of his game a little playing for a bad team for the past few years.
I understand the value increases
for playoff teams. I did a similar calculation for my own team, the Rangers, when they acquired Cliff Lee.
I agree with you to an extent. Why? Because while the Rangers wouldn’t win any deal in terms of overall value, he was a fantastic fit for the team. Why? He was replacing a truly replacement-level bevy of 5th starters (Harden, Harrison, Nippert) and (along with Lewis and Wilson/Hunter) creating a very strong playoff top 3. He also included a near-guarantee of two very high draft picks. Additionally, the Rangers’ system is very deep and can weather the loss of a few players.
Add to that fact that the Rangers have never won a playoff series and a surge could create great things for the franchise and its fans. If the Rangers so much as got to the ALCS, people would be giddy.
Oswalt is not on Lee’s level. Not this year, not last year, nor the year before. He’s paid substantially more. The Cardinals’ top 3 is already exceptionally strong. Shelby Miller is their only prospect who can be considered a top-tier guy.
If the Cardinals win a world series, It’s a win. There’s no other situation in which they’d come out on top.
I haven’t seen any study that elite players are worth more per win. Can you find a study on that front? I’m legitimately curious.
http://oursaviorchuck.ytmnd.com/
by Conjunction on Jul 22, 2010 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Why is Oswalt not better than Haren this year?
In terms of ERA, Oswalt beats him 3.12 to 4.60. In terms of FIP, 3.23 to 3.92. In terms of xFIP, it’s tighter, but 3.42 to 3.39, so if you go only by that stat, then Haren is basically tied with Oswalt. For the previous two years, sure, Haren was better, but considering we’re talking basically about a one-year rental, this year’s performance seems to be the most important
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Jul 23, 2010 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions
I didn't bring up Haren
But let’s go into that. Haren is significantly younger, and has one of the friendliest contracts of any proven starter in baseball. His track record in the 3 previous years is just as impressive as Roy’s, if not more so. Better this year? Maybe, maybe not. But I certainly wouldn’t give up anywhere near as much for Oswalt.
http://oursaviorchuck.ytmnd.com/
by Conjunction on Jul 23, 2010 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Haren is indeed good
But I think his so-called team-friendly contract has been overstated and the Astros could easily equal it by kicking in some money. Haren is owed $25.5M in 2011 and 2012. He has a 2013 option for $15.5M with a $3.5M buyout.
If Oswalt does demand his option be picked up, he will be guaranteed $32M in those two years.
This season is another story… Haren is owed a lot less money this year. But if the Astros could be convinced to kick in, say, $10M, it would be pretty equal in my opinion.
Also
I have a suspicion that teams may indeed like Oswalt more as a pitcher for this season. Not just because he’s performing better than Haren this year, but also because he’s a power arm who gives up fewer fly balls. Haren is more of a finesse fly ball pitcher. There are pros and cons to each, to be certain… but I know AL teams in particular are more skeptical of guys who profile like Haren.
Indeed
but we’ve long been told Drayton McLane has a sense of inflated worth for his stars, which makes it tough to deal with that team. I don’t know that he’d be willing to throw in 10 million unless he was getting some really special prospects back.
http://oursaviorchuck.ytmnd.com/
Yeah
But maybe if Ed Wade can sell it to him as “buying the prospects” he would do it. I wouldn’t have thought it possible before this year, but then they went and gave the fifth largest signing bonus in the history of international free agency to Ariel Ovando.
I'm sorry
I’m not quite sure how I mis-read Lee as Haren. Some weird version of dyslexia, maybe?
As to your point, I entirely agree that over the next few years, Haren will likely be better than Oswalt. But, if we’re talking about just this year (which I think any team asking for one of them will be), then it’s a much closer call
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Jul 23, 2010 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Oswalt dealt with back issues more than usual the past two years, right?
It’s quite possible his down years were partially injury related, and now he’s been mostly healthy this season.
Granted the injury risk is high on Oswalt, but it doesn’t look like his performance if healthy should be a worry at this point.
John Lackey?
There was little outrage when the “smartest” GM in baseball agreed to pay Lackey a similar wage at a similar age for someone who might slightly behind Oswalt from a talent standpoint.
Fat man is no more,
Bursting on through Heaven's Door
Come on in, says Bill
The only way we give up Shelby Miller this offseason is if we are getting Dan Haren
Oswalt should cost like… nothing.
Giving up like Hawksworth and Jon Jay or something random like that should be enough to get Oswalt, with his contract.
The interesting thing with him is how much leverage the Astros have in this considering the reports that Oswalt wants to come to the Cardinals and will defer money on his option to make it happen. If the Cardinals are Oswalt’s only real choice, then the Astros really won’t be able to do anything other than drop him for relatively nothing.
Either way, I’m a bit apprehensive about picking up Oswalt. I’d much rather get Haren back, even if it costs us Shelby Miller. If we get Oswalt for some random prospect like Lance Lynn or something, though, I won’t complain too much.
You really think you can get him for that
He is, at worst, a top 25 starter. His whip and fip are identical to Ubaldo’s numbers, and hes in the top 20 in pretty much every statistical catergory. He’ll be 35 at the end of his option year, and hasn’t shown signs of regression.
Plus, as I said, $16M is actually pretty reasonable. Look at the deal Lackey just signed this past off season. Ben Sheets, Andy Petitte and Randy Wolf all got better then 10M/per
You are right that $16M is reasonable
What I just randomly threw out there probably won’t work, but my main point would be that it shouldn’t cost Shelby Miller.
$16M is reasonable, but Oswalt isn’t providing any surplus value over that $16M, even if he remains healthy, so why not just take that $16M and spend it on Cliff Lee in this offseason? Oswalt’s trade value is much less than say, Dan Haren, because he isn’t providing any surplus value over the amount of money he will be paid over the course of the deal. That’s why Haren would cost a Miller but Oswalt likely should not.
Granted the Astros may be asking for that, and if the Astros are required to front some of the money for the deal they may get that, but with the way Oswalt controls his fate and gets to decide which teams to waive his no-trade for, I doubt the Astros will receive what they really want.
Oswalt/Werth/prospects 3 way with the Phillies/Rays/Astros still being talked about
Stark reported that Phillies for some reason need to dump Werth to afford Oswalt and if that is the case it lowers his value. I don’t see the Rays offering Davis, or either of the top 2 prospects for him. I could see a deal involving say Moore or Colome and a Justin Ruggiano or lower level prospect for Werth.
Moore + Cruz
I’d much much rather see Colome go, and I like Cruz, just thinking of a C+ type of guy who is on he rise in Cruz. I’d consider a deal based around Davis for Werth
For Davis
I’m not sure the Rays wouldn’t want something more in return. I don’t know, maybe the draft picks help even it out.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
I saw somewhere that the Phillies asked for Upton or Davis when the Rays inquired on Werth, so I think you’re right about this.
Anyway, my current obsession is with trading Werth somewhere (Tampa makes the most sense) in exchange for the “young major league pitching” Arizona wants for Haren. If Arizona would take Davis, Happ, and a midlevel piece or two for Haren (and I honestly think they might), then I’d even be in favor of the Phis ponying up Werth+ to get Davis.
by PhillyFriar on Jul 24, 2010 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Seems like most of the Big Leagues is interested in Joel Hanrahan....
I hope NH sticks to a high asking price, because Hanrahan is just filthy. 59/14 K/BB rate in some forty innings, I believe. Plus, batters are hitting under .200 against him.
The Nats got taken in that deal, especially with Milledge tearing it up right now. Not a good move on Washington’s part…..
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Jul 22, 2010 9:43 AM EDT reply actions
When Rangers asked about him recently
the Pirates told them it would cost Neftali Feliz. Pirates aren’t looking to move him unless they get wayyyyy overpaid.
A difference that I perceive
Is that Littlefield was asking that for players who were going to walk. I remember he told the Angels he wanted a young starting pitcher, a top SP prospect, and a midlevel hitting prospect for the last few months of Craig Wilson.
Huntington just doesn’t want to get rid of Hanrahan, so he’s setting the bar at a ludicrous level just in case somebody fell down and hit their head before they dialed him. He’s not seriously expecting his demands to be met, and he’s not initiating the call and then insulting the other GMs. That I know of at least.
Why?
If someone’s interested in one (or more) of the Pirates’s relievers, he should be dealt. There simply is no reason for a 100 loss team to hold onto relief pitching. Meek, Carrasco, Hanrahan, Dotel should all be dealt.
I'm not against dealing any of them.
But they shouldn’t be given away. All but Dotel are playing for relative peanuts, and all are doing a decent to excellent job this season. Hanrahan looks like he could be a dynamite closer for a team, and there’s a lot of value there I believe, so why not take advantage of that value and ask for a high return? If nobody is willing to meet that return, you can ship Dotel out for a lower return, and let Hanrahan close, where his value should be even greater next year, assuming he’s good in that role as well.
This is likely true for basically every team in the league.
But if the Pirates went out and paid Cliff Lee to be the ace and got any kind of contribution from Morton/Veal/Hart/anybody next season, the Pirates wouldn’t be bad at all, and would still have a lot of potential help in the minors.
Relievers are exceedingly unreliable from year to year
You deal them off while they have value, or else face a Matt Capps situation. This team is not anywhere close to competing and there is no minor league help coming for a few years.
That's middle relievers though.
These two could each close, and have elite stuff. It’s not like they’re LOOGY’s or swingmen having decent years. They could be seen as two dominant closer types coming of age.
Or, they could fall apart next year and you could be right. But I like them much more than I have liked Capps for years.
Gotta disagree with you there jar75
Hanrahan and Meek are very valuable assets that shouldn’t be moved unless the trade is substantial. They are bullpen arms yes but that makes it perfectly logical to keep two.
One will probably stay this good and will be more valuable to the Pirates over the next 3-4 years (their impending contention window). Considering their return will more than likely be maybe one B or B+ prospect plus a C or C+ high upside guy and a throw-in (mainly because other teams realize as well that relievers are volatile), why not just keep both.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 22, 2010 8:58 PM EDT up reply actions
That said
I’d love to move them if we could get back what we wanted. Obviously the Rangers said no to Feliz but something like Font, Beltre, Kiker/Ross would certainly peak my interest.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 22, 2010 9:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Crap
Pique! Embarrassing…
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 22, 2010 9:05 PM EDT up reply actions
they are having good seasons
but not elite, and nothing really suggests that either are going to become elite relievers, although they both have opportunities to be well-above-average RPs, which are valuable, but definitely not worth a B/C+/throw-in package Mr. McCutchenIsTheTruth.
In my opinion, if Pittsburg got Font or Beltre and 2 throw-ins (certainly not of Robbie Ross’s abilities) straight up for either of Meek/Hanrahan, it would certainly be a good trade for them. Relievers are just too unreliable to consistently maintain good performance year to year, and I don’t know how you could justify giving up 3 valued assets in return for one above-average RP
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
You can't justify that kind of a package
but why do I want Font who may never be better than Hanrahan or Meek and if he does it’s not for a while, especially considering when the Pirates are on the cusp of competing for a playoff spot (obviously not this year, but if NH is an aggressive buyer which he’s hinted at, next year isn’t out of the question).
Keep them around unless you’re floored with the offer.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 23, 2010 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions
I still wholeheartedly disagree
You want to get value out of the relievers when they still have value. As I said before, it is very difficult for RPs to maintain value on a yearly basis, and to do so, means that you are one of the more elite relievers in the game; which neither Hanrahan or Meek is. Getting cost-controlled assets, as Wilmer Font would be, is the best way to build a winning franchise, by building a solid foundation. You are correct that Font won’t be ready by next season, but I really can’t see Pittsburgh competing for a playoff spot in 2011. I mean, their rotation is just so awful that they would need every single player on their roster to outplay expectations next year to even have a shot at the playoffs; you don’t play baseball in mid-late September with a rotation that features 2 average pitchers at best, and then 3 guys that would be swingmen on any other .500 team, and it’s not like Brad Lincoln, Rudy Owens, or Daniel McCutchen is going to make that big of a difference next season.
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
The lineup might be close, but that rotation is going to suck
Obviously a lineup with McCutchen, Alvarez, Tabata, Walker and Milledge is going to score some runs, but I honestly have no idea how the Pirates could build a quality starting rotation in the next couple years.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jul 23, 2010 11:42 PM EDT up reply actions
They can't
And while Lastings has been better than I thought he’d be, I’m not sold that he’s a wRC+ 103 type of hitter. Given his poor defense in the outfield, I don’t think he’s a winning piece.
How do you build a winning rotation?
Trade for Carmona (a legitimate rumor), sign a free agent or two (which isn’t out of the realm of possibility – NH has hinted at it), and keep the pieces in place.
If you do trade for Carmona and sign say Bedard to a 2 year deal (yes his health is a risk, but for a low budget team its a risk that makes sense to me) …
then come 2012 the rotation options would be Maholm, Duke, Morton, Ohlendorf, Carmona, Bedard, Hart, Ascino, Veal, and the quartet of AA arms (Locke, Morris, Wilson, and Owens).
Does that make a great rotation. Not in the least. It’s probably won’t even be average, but combined with the bullpen (which you keep in place anchored by Meek and Hanrahan – Yes I know relievers are volatile, especially from year to year but you can’t have much better building blocks than Meek and Hanrahan) and the lineup its a plausibility that such a team would be in contention in a weak NL central that will get worse over the next two years.
Houston is terrible, the Cubs and Brewers are trending down, the Cardinals are treading water (granted they are very good) and the Reds are on the rise. That picture painted, if the Pirates also add say Stephen Drew (another somewhat legit rumor) then why not 2012 with a chance as early as next year
Personally, I’d rather be sellers and move as many people as we can, and shoot for a more realistic 2013 breakout followed by real contention in 2014, but its not as bleak as most think.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jul 24, 2010 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Feliz for Hanrahan is a rumor, jar75......
And, even if true, that makes you think DL and NH are similar?
You obviously have an irrational hatred for NH, which is fine.
But, you make some really stupid comments because of it.
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Jul 22, 2010 9:16 PM EDT up reply actions
And, I would trade Meek for less than Hanrahan....
Both are pretty good, but Hanrahan has better stuff and I think a better season. Meek was quite lucky in the first half of the season in my opinion.
Hanrahan has the best pitch of the two as well (that being his slider).
If they were moved, there has to be a pretty good return. No urgency to move them, in my opinion.
And, if you don’t think the Pirates are going to get any help in the ‘next 2-3 years’ from their minors, you simply don’t know their minors, especially pitching at the Double A level.
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Jul 22, 2010 9:18 PM EDT up reply actions
It's a pretty strong rumor referring to Pirates asking price.
In no way did either team expect that to transpire though.
Are you saying it’s only a rumor or using it as proof of Hanrahan’s value?
I'm simply saying we don't know if that transaction was actually discussed....
And, I agree…..NH didn’t think it would happen, just like the Rangers didn’t.
I just don’t get the big deal (if it did happen) why someone would be saying that is further evidence of NH being like DL.
The two couldn’t be further apart…..
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Jul 22, 2010 10:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't get
Why everyone is talking like $15 million per is so out of line for Oswalt. Its not like hes ancient, and outside of W/L his numbers compare favorably to others in his pay range. Would you rather have Lackey or Lowe?
+1
he is a really solid #2 right now and going forward…I think it is just the consistent back flare ups that have some scared…
No. 2?
I’d say he’s a no. 1, albeit on the low end side. He has the 16th best FIP among qualified starters this season, the 11th best xFIP, and the 19th best ERA. He hasn’t had any back issues this year either.
In terms of what he’s projected to do going forward, by ZiPS and such, it’s slightly below those numbers, but not by much.
It's not out of line for Oswalt
It’s exactly what he’s worth, basically. He has picked up his pitching this season, but the past two years were down years so it’s not like you can expect him to continue pitching at this year’s level for the rest of his contract.
If he’s getting paid exactly what he’s worth, that means he has basically no trade value since you could just use that money in the free agent market to pick up those wins without trading away assets. Oswalt’s no trade clause makes it even tougher to get assets back in return as the Astros really have little leverage to make out in this situation.
need oswalt now not later
I agree but his value is for a team that wants to add now not in FA after the season. Plus him being signed for 1-2 more years actually should increase his value of course taht depends on payroll concerns which is why the cardinals dont have him yet. If we coudl get him for craig, andserson and something like Lynn, Mortenson or hawkswroth we do it in a second.
Do you Cardinals fans
Honestly believe the Astros are going to give up their best pitcher in franchise history for grade C trash? Seriously?
Any discussions for him begin with Shelby Miller. In fact, given the quality of your farm system (or lack thereof), you’re going to pretty much need to give Ed Wade a blank check to get this deal done.
If that’s too much for you? Too bad. We’ll trade him to somebody else, or hang onto him.
Eat his salary and take Miller and other Cardinals blue chippers
Simple as that.
"Swingles is Day to Day: IE: He’s being turned into a zombie, but they don’t want the world to know for another 5 days (retroactive)" ~Zonis
Miller is the only Cardinals blue chipper
But sure, I’d eat some (not all) of his salary for a package of Miller, Craig, Vasquez, and Schneider.
When did Miller sign?
Memory is that he didn’t sign until sometime last August, which (if I remember the rule correctly) would prevent him from being traded until the first anniverery of that date. Right?
Technically
but to get around the 1 year from date of signing you make him a PTBNL, which gives you a 6 month window from the date you make the trade.
http://bullpenbanter.com
Agreed. While I don’t think the Stros are going to get an earth-shattering haul for Oswalt — that’s just the nature of the beast as teams become more and more aware of the value of cost-controlled players — there’s simply no way the Cardinals can pull this off without surrendering Miller. I’m sorry, but the Jay/Hawksworth package mentioned above is laughable. You have to give up SOMETHING of value to get Oswalt.
by PhillyFriar on Jul 22, 2010 6:30 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
not sure about the are you serious part
If you look at my initial post I said the deal starts with miller and then I added a catching prospect and a hitter in the bigs that would replace the Berkman loss next year too. I dont think a bunch of trash has a chance but I said I would love it if it did.
He was replying
To the nut I replied to above. Who said “Oswalt should cost… nothing” Then suggested Hawksworth and Jay are a even value. People have a really screwed up sense of his contract I think. Even if teams have to pick up his option 2yrs/32 is pretty reasonable considering what elite pitchers cost on the open market. And you are picking him up for a title run, which increases value.
reading joe strauss' article
certainly makes me wonder whether or nor this trade will happen. He said
The offer was rejected earlier this week and included shortstop Brendan Ryan and another player. The Astros are seeking more players, hoping to include at least one minor-league player.
haha
Yeah, I would hope the Astros could get more than the .185-hitting Brendan Ryan and another random player. No reason to trade Oswalt in that case. Sounds like the Cards think they are the sole player in this market.
Don't think so
The rumors I’m hearing is that the Phillies are still hard after Oswalt, and are focused more on him than on Haren. Based on what I’m hearing currently, they sound like the most logical destination if he gets moved at all, and Astros president Tal Smith said this morning that he thinks Oswalt will be traded.
The Dodgers are also in but I don’t know how serious talks are.
It’s especially insulting when the poster in question doesn’t even take the time to find out if it’s trash the Astros have use for. Jon Jay? Okay, fringe guy who could maybe be useful as a bench outfielder… except the Astros have three guys exactly like that at AAA right now, all having good seasons.
the Rays are "kicking the tires" with the Royals about Zach Greinke
while unlikely the Rays definitely have the pieces to make this deal happen if they want too. Depending on what the Royals want they can either go quantity or quality with TB. A package with Davis, Joyce, Moore, Lobstein or a Hellickson, Joyce, Lobstein
The Rays would definitely need to give up quantity for him
I have to imagine the Royals would want a package starting with Jennings and then a number of additional high upside prospects. I could maybe see the packages you proposed working. But if they’re looking to trade Grienke at all, it’s so they can fill a whole bunch of holes. One other name to throw into the mix would be Sean Rodriguez I guess, since you could move Zobrist back to 2B.
That said, I’m not confident that Grienke isn’t just getting worse. Walks are down a hair, but strikeouts are down significantly and home runs are way up. Some guys just have really short peaks.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Rays have the pieces...
…but is Greinke really enough better than their current pitchers to give up what he’s going to cost? There’s got to be some concern about his regression back to career norms after the career year last season.
He’s still a fantastic pitcher, no doubt, but he doesn’t seem to be the Best Pitcher In Baseball™ he appeared to have become last year.
It just seems like Haren or Oswalt would be cheaper (in prospects, at least) for a similar upgrade, if the Rays are even looking for pitching at all.
Haren traded to the Angels
Diamondbacks traded Haren to Angels for Joe Saunders, Patrick Corbin, Rafael Rodriguez and a player to be named.
Which, as a Rangers fan
makes me so goddamn angry I want to punch myself.
http://oursaviorchuck.ytmnd.com/
I can't decide
If the package that they got for him will lower Oswalt’s package value, or the fact that he is off the market drive up the price.
I also can’t think of a season where three pitchers as good as Lee-Haren-Oswalt all got moved.
Adam Dunn
What grade prospects would you be willing to give up for Dunn?
I'd imagine
He’s worth one top 100 prospect or somewhere close to that, but not as much as Cliff Lee brought back.
White Sox
So, Im the White Sox, who have had zero production from the left side, and have three pretty rotten bats getting regular ABs in Kotsay, Jones and Pierre I would think Adam Dunn is a no brainer. Wouldn’t some combination of Mitchell or Danks with a couple lower ceiling arms work for both teams?
I don't see why the Sox would give up a stud like Danks
plus Mitchell, who’s got huge upside, plus a couple more cost-controlled assets, for 2 months of a defensive liability, even if that defender is one of the better bats in baseball
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
Well..
He can DH in Chicago if they can live with CQ playing left. Otherwise, he could play a passable def himself. Pierre has been god awful. I don’t care how fast you are, a .321 OBP is just horrific.
I figured it was Mitchell or Danks and a couple other players. (And I meant Jordan Danks btw, Im not dumb enough to suggest them trading John.)
arggg
sorry about that, totally forgot both of the Danks brothers were in the same org. Still, if WAS was able to land just Jared Mitchell for Adam Dunn, I’d consider that a terrific move for them. Even with the injury, I think he’s going to be an extremely good baseball player.
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
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