AQA Evening Thread

If he keeps up the hitting in Double-A he will be somewhere…no higher than 60 though. I’m not sold on the minisucle walk rate.

answered this in another thread….depends on the rest of the system and I haven’t done an indepth scan of the Mariners lately.

1) Like the speed with some power combo…good walk rate, strikeouts still rather high, not sure the batting average will carry to higher levels.
2) has clearly made a lot of progress unleashing his bat, plate discipline still not great but better than it was. back into the discussion among the better catching prospects.
3) Love this one, walks, speed, power, even BB/K ratio, just 22 in Triple-A. a personal favorite

Let’s see…he’s 28? I’m not sure when the last time he pitched was…if he needs to get himself back into pitching condition, I think you have to start off slow despite his age. If he’s ready to pitch I send him to Double-A for August and see what happens. Have to let him adjust to North America, etc. Then see what he does in spring training.

I don’t trust him…..93 strikeouts in 66 games is still ridiculous. he’ll be hard-pressed to hit .200 in the majors right now. Still Grade A tools, Grade D refinement…although grade D is better than Grade F. He’s a C+ “with high risk” prospect for me.

thats going to take a long time lol =P

RHP Stephen Strasburg
LHP Martin Perez
RP Tanner Scheppers
CA Carlos Santana
1B Jesus Montero
2B Dustin Ackley
3B Mike Moustakas
SS Grant Green
OF Mike Stanton
OF Mike Trout
OF Domonic Brown

I have always liked Nelson’s tools, but his track record is highly erratic and he seems to get hurt right when he’s making progress. So far this year he hasn’t done that. Plate discipline is still an issue, although the strikeout rate isn’t bad. I had him at Grade C pre-season. Would move that up to a B- now.

I have heard that his secondary pitches have taken a step forward this year and the numbers would seem to back this up. Do you mean Braves top ten or national top ten? Definitely the former, not the latter just yet.

…somewhat better but a long ways to go.
Yes.

Sample is too small and level too low to draw broad conclusions for a college guy…although I do not like the 4/13 BB/K. Yes he has a chance to replace Chipper but it is not a guarantee…he’s a good prospect but not a sure-fire regular bet yet.

Well I’m not sure….it is out of context with the rest of his career, and I suppose it could be a BABIP fluke, although I haven’t looked at the breakdowns. I still don’t see him as more than a fourth outfielder, but that is better than a Triple-A lifer which was his previous outlook

Another kind of out-of-context guy, although I think both he and presley count as real prospects, yes, Grade C+ types. I could see Rizzotti as a .250, 20-homer guy.

Well I’d like more than a 21 game sample, but those 21 games have been damn impressive, .306/.425/.653 with five steals. Only below average tool is his throwing arm. I had him as a Grade C “with potential” in the book. I’d move that up to C+ now and perhaps B- by end of the season.

I think he has more home run power than he’s shown this year, but he’s never going to be a big bopper. 10-15 homer guy at his peak I think.

He’s got great stuff and this is reflected in his K/IP and low hit rate. His walk rate is still quite high, and that keeps him out of a top 50 for me at this point. Upside is very high though. I had him as a C+ in the book, would move that to B- now. Straight B maybe by end of year

Jansen in 2 games in the majors this weekend has this stat line:

6 batters faced
4 strikeouts
0 walks
0 hits
1 save

:)

He’s improved a lot after a slow start. .291/.372/.477 in Triple-A, high walk rate, not many strikeouts. I gave him a B- in the book, he’s on the B-/C+ border. Ceiling…a guy who can hit .260/.330/.440 in an average year with some years better than that. Not a star, but useful.

I have liked Thames since he was at Pepperdine and shadow drafted him in 2008. I don’t think he is a 30 homer guy…see him more in the 15ish range if you gave him full playing time, assuming that he keeps the zone under control in the majors, which might be an issue. Platoon bat, yes, but a good one

i’d give him another year. He’s only 20. If he still can’t hit at 22, then move him to the mound.

Sample…walk rate much too high at burlington and secondary pitches remain inconsistent. Possible mid-rotation guy if he puts it all together, but too early to say that he will.

Coleman….I see him as a very good middle reliever with an outside chance to close some games. I like him.

B. Hardy….bullpen spare part.

Both his error rate and range numbers in Double-A are pretty poor right now, granted the problems with minor league defensive stats. Scouting reports on his defensive tools are more positive than the numbers, especially in regards to range. I will trust the scouts for now.

I don’t know. That would take me 30 minutes to research and answer properly.

I used to be able to answer questions like that off the top of my head, but as I’ve grown older I find that I can’t do that any more…the brain just doesn’t have the instant recall it once did.

yes, actually I do have something on him….his tools are actually pretty solid, not spectacular, but he’s a better athlete than your average 20th round draft pick from a small college…power potential is solid, he runs OK, arm pretty good, and he’s certainly hit well thus far. Fine sleeper prospect. I’m not sure he will be an “impact” guy but he will get to the majors and should be useful at least.

I have been pro-Reckling but he was just miserable in Triple-A. He’s got to get the walk rate back down, and he’s not getting as many grounders this year either. Still a prospect, but I may have been too ethusiastic in the past.

That is a very mixed list with lots of guys that hard to compare. I will not rate Wimmers since he has not pitched yet, and comparing relievers like Slama and Coleman with the starters is a bad concept.

Starters…..Lamb, Dwyer, Bromberg, Crow, Hendriks, Salcedo, Duffy. Might flip Hendriks and Crow depending on scouting reports. Also are you talking long term or short term?

he is a relief prospect with a very good arm still putting his command back together after the injury. Excellent K/IP so far…I think he is someone that people have forgotten about who will make some noise next year.

he has a good statistical case, with great K/BB ratios, good fastball and slider, making progress with his changeup. At 25 he’s a bit old to just be getting to Triple-A, but we could see him in September. I can see him being a number three or four starter.

he’s done pretty well in his first 29 games at Spokane..not superb but not bad by any means. Much better command of the zone than Mendonca. . .he could still bust but I think Olt can be a solid player, though likely not a star.

Scouts have been aware of emotional and psychogical factors for 100 years, so it is nothing new. It is true that there has been an increased emphasis on this in the last 20 years, but the interest has always been there.

Personally I think getting a better handle on this is the next “big thing” in player development. I think it will be some combination of hard-science neurology and softer-science psychology. How exactly that pans out, I don’t know. But I think it is the next big step.

I just wrote a piece on this for Rotowire. I’d say Montgomery, Moustakas, Hosmer, Wil Myers, Lamb, and Chris Dwyer are all top 100 guys now.

Sorry, I don’t. Kempf is pretty old for the Appy League at age 22. I believe he is an undrafted free agent out of Baylor, but I don’t have a scouting report at hand.

anything is possible… but is it likely?

I love me some Carlos Santana. I see him as similar to Victor Martinez

see above.

Well as with the question earlier about the Mariners, I would need to sit down and go over the whole system to answer this question with any validity, and in the rapid fire format it is too much time to put into one question.

I gave him a Grade C in the book and would move that into the C+/B- range baesd on his performance this year.

1) I’m not convinced he’s really hitting better. Component ratios haven’t changed much. I think he’s getting lucky so far in AA.

2) Don’t see Alvarez as a top guy…more like a number four starter at this point. Components don’t support a higher ranking.

3) Perez looks interesting to me and there is some reason to be excited about him, yes. Main question will be power development I think.

He’ll sign but it will go down to wire.

Looks like a really good pitching staff to me, though Black will probably be at a higher level. the Pirates have put a lot of money into high school pitching….will it pay off? Too early to say.

Yeah it seem odd that so many of their guys would have problems like this. If I were running the Mets, I’d have an inquiry about this, assign a staffer I trust and who has some independent authority to find out if there is a commonality or if it is just a fluke. Is it a particular coach? Something wrong with organizational philosophy or teaching? Or just bad luck?

IMHO

Chase Utley is a career .294/.380/.518 hitter. Shave that down to .264/.350/.460 and that is what havens can be.

Well a bit apples/oranges comparing guys across positions.

If you could combine Hicks’ walks with Franklin’s better pop you’d have a hellofaplayer. Hicks raw tools are somewhat better from what i’ve heard, but (aside from the walk rate) Franklin makes better use of his tools.

nice spike in his strikeout rate lately and a strong K/IP overall. . .he’s pitched much better than the 4.81 ERA indicates, FIP is 3.60.

Scouting reports…88-92 fastball, good curveball, good changeup. nothing spectacular but his stuff is good enough if the command is there. People may dismiss him because of the ERA but that is a mistake.

Well Trout will get there first… as good as Harper is, Trout is more advanced and polished at this point.

They are very different players in terms of style…Harper has the enormous power of course, while Trout is more of a speed/defense guy though his bat has certainly been potent this year and there is a decent shot his home run power will increase.

If you are judging purely on a fantasy basis, Trout should help quicker. Harper will need time.

1) Salcedo: plate discipline has been dismal at Rome, but he’s so young and raw it is just too early to tell. I don’t put much stock in DSL statistics. Scouting reports remain positive but I want to see some performance too before totally buying into hype.
2) Revere: july slump has tanked hot early numbers. yes he can be a major league leadoff hitter. . .though i don’t think he’ll ever show a lot of distance power.

I wrote about him earlier this week, check back the archive.

I like him and I think he’s legit at this point.

don’t know anything about him other than the numbers, sorry.

Please remember that DSL statistics are not especially predictive, esp. in small sample sizes.

Seems to be a pretty tough park for hitters, that’s likely a big part of it, although the Cal League is good for hitters to such an extent that last year’s numbers were probably just as skewed as this years, just in the opposite way.

I still like Neal and I thikn Kieschnick could turn it around. The infielders I don’t like much at this point

Strong speed/power combo in the Cal League….but let’s see if he can repeat this in Double-A next year before getting overly excited. If he does he can be a regular. I guess I’ve learned not to get oversold on Cal League “breakouts”

Yeah the numbers are pretty ugly at this point, but as you point out this is an aggressive posting given his experience level. Tools are very good and work ethic is rated as a plus. But…well, I guess I just don’t see the point of having him in the Florida State League one year out of a Michigan high school.

I like Sanchez bat better….I thikn he has a lot more power potential. Perez is more skilled with the glove and there is a fair chance Sanchez will switch positions while Perez should stick behind the plate.

given his still-poor BB/K ratio and the small sample size of 169 at-bats, I’m not convinced yet that he’s really turned the corner. Sure, he could be a post-hype guy…but well, let’s see how things look on October 1st. before concluding that he’s finalliy figured it out.

I don’t know, I’d have to run down all the other shortstop prospects to get a reading on this. Like I said earlier, I have lost the ability to do all this in my head on the fly these days…I have to sit down and write things out now.

Machado will be in the top 50 certainly, but where exactly and in what relation to other shortstops, I don’t know yet.

I suspect he can handle third base, yes.

Power ceiling….hmmm…..given his age it could be enormous, but I’ll say “expect a 20-homer guy and be happy if he hits 30”.

Kimbrell, Marek, Dunn, Diamond, Gearrin. Yes, I think Kimbrel could close.

Legit prospect, yes. Top 10…I dunno, doubt it, would have to run analysis on rest of system. His defense isn’t much but the bat looks interesting, granted we need to see if that pans at higher levels. I’d say C+ prospect, maybe Grade C depending on scouting reports.

webmd.com

It took my wife 10 months to fully recover her strength from a bad bout of mono in high school. Of course she’s not a professional athlete and her case was severe.

I’m a fan of Mr. Weglarz as well.

I like what he’s done this year, for the reasons you mentioned…power,plate discipline, and improved BA this year….that’s probably some rebound BABIP after doing poorly in that category last year, but scouts who have seen him seem to think he’s made real progress. I can see him being a .260 hitter with 20 homer power and a high OBP.

Well I think you summarized him just about perfectly. Given his age (20), he still has some time to add strength. let’s see….floor would be Adam Everett perhaps. Ceiling Omar Vizquel.

yeah he is kind of overlooked….I think he’s a pretty solid prospect, although he might not make it into LAA top 10. I don’t see him as a top 100 guy just yet, though perhaps on the cusp.

Surkamp….86-89, plus curveball, decent changeup. Rated him as a C in the book, could bump that up to C+.

Bond was also in the book as a Grade C, future utility player. No change in that.

Arias…has some speed, some power potential, questions about the strike zone. I’d rate him as a Grade C, “with higher potential” but he’s pretty raw.

I liked Ryan Berry at Rice and I like him now…he has good velocity and very good breaking stuff, also a deceptive herky/jerky delivery that throws hitters off. Main worry here is health…he was overworked at Rice and has already had shoulder trouble as a result. I had him as a C+ in the book based on his college performance, and will move that up to B- for now.

Don’t see him as a 20/20. More like a 10/10. Future fourth/fifth outfielder i think.

Ozuna has power potential but his plate discipline is dismal right now and Florida’s track record for improving that is inconsistent and I think his bust risk is high. Skipworth has made progress this year unleashing his power but that BB/K is lousy…he’ll get chewed up at higher levels at this point.

Too early to give up on him given his pedigree, but he needs to make some adjustments. Breakout possible next year, yeah I’d agree with that.

No, I think Freese goes into spring training as the 3B, with Carpenter heading to Triple-A and Cox to either Double-A or High-A depending on how he looks in spring training. I do think Carpenter is interesting….good OBP guy, good glove, lacks the power of a typical 3B…Bill Muellerish outcome possible.

This is a kid with a .782 career OPS until this season, where he played in a park that gave him a home OPS 663(!!) points higher than on the road.

He’s a solid prospect, but he’s not Mike Schmidt.

Well, the K-rate you mention worries me. I like his command and control, but his stuff is marginal. If he makes it, it would be as a Mexican Charlie Liebrandt, to use a name familiar to Royals fans. I gave him a Grade C this year but would move that up to C+ now, but no higher than that yet.

Yes, all three could be all stars. I would rank them Trout, Myers, Franklin at this point. I like all three quite a bit, and am increasingly impressed with Myers, though he needs work on the glove. Love Trout, and did when he was drafted.

Interesting guy, has shown excellent control this year, K rate is a bit lower than I’d like. I’d give him a Grade C+ right now based on the numbers without a scouting report at my fingertips. Depending on what scouts say, that could go up to a B- or MAYBE a Grade B.

I dunno…I’d have to consult some PCL or Oakland sources to get a read on if this is real or just luck.

Based on the totality of his record, I still like Taylor and wouldn’t give up on him after struggling in the first half this year. He’s struggled before but was able to make proper adjustments.

James is a guy I have one of those really strong intuitive feelings about. His tools are terrific, and while the numbers this year aren’t great, there is just something here that makes me think he is going to break out big sometime. I thought it might be this year, but maybe it will be next year instead. Ranking in Phillies system would take some research on other players, but I can see him in Top Ten somewhere. There is just something here…

Last 27 games for Decker…327/.444/.564 with 20/16 BB/K. There is nothing wrong with him. He just needed a few weeks to adjust to High-A at age 20. Still a high-end Grade B for me, borderline B+

I dunno….i have a hard time seeing him as a 35 homer catcher even with the improvements he has made this year. It is really hard to hit that many homers as a catcher.

Expect 20 and be happy if you get 30.

He is destroying AA now and still hitting .386.

Well it looks good on the surface, but keep in mind that this is the Cal League and he’s playing at High Desert, which is like hitting on the moon. I respect his power potential but I am concerned that this won’t carry forward to Double-A.

On his own merits he will be ready next year. But whether he actually get a chance in Boston or not, I can’t say

Grade C/C+, future utility player.

No secret, his command just hasn’t been up to snuff in Double-A. Greatest strengths…just as in pre-season, plus plus fastball, plus curve, youth. Weaknesses….command and control, still working on his changeup. I gave him a B+ in the book and would move that down a notch to a Grade B now

Beckham is too young to give up on, but if he hasn’t broken out by this time next year I think he’ll be a bust.

Gillies…lost the strike zone in Double-A and got hurt. We need to see how he plays when he’s healthy again, but there was a lot of hype with that one due to Cal League inflation and his showing in the futures game last year.

Darnell: he’s hitting over .300 with power on the road, but can’t hit at all in his home park. Given the sample size I’m not especially panicked yet.

Too broad a question, would take 30 minutes to research at least. I don’t have instant recall any more.

before yours….

His command has completely vanished and now he’s not even getting ground balls. He was handled/rushed poorly and is now paying the price for lack of vision on the part of his teams.

Miller needs the following.

1) a trade to a new team to clear his head.
2) A GM and manager who will take him aside, say “we are going to let you catch your breath and rebuild your confidence.”
3) Send him to High-A and LEAVE HIM THERE for at least 10 starts even if he is pitching brilliantly. Let him get his confidence back.
4) Promote him very slowly once he does so.
5) He’s 25 and a slow approach may not have him back in the majors until he’s 27, but I think it is the only hope for him to be a successful pitcher again.

I’m not sure what your question is. I agree that Hagadone’s stuff is first-class, but the walks are a problem and he’s got to improve his command at least some before being able to get hitters out in the majors in any role. His walk rate at Kinston was quite high and it is no surprise he is struggling at Akron now.

Hell I don’t know.

As I have gotten older, I find it more and more difficult to answer questions like that.

One thing I have learned over the last few years, from talking with and getting to know people in the game and front offices….being a GM, or a scouting director, or a farm director, is INCREDIBLY hard, emotionally and intellectually. It has made me less comfortable criticizing people now that i know more about exactly how tough their job is.

Sure, some are better than others. I think of the 30 GMs, there are maybe three or four that I’d regard as outstanding, two or three that I’d regard as quite bad at their job, and a huge number in the middle who aren’t easy to distinguish.

but if he was in the bigs next year I think it would be very ugly

He’s hit .210/.285/.325, and his defense wouldn’t be good enough to compensate

yeah he looks pretty solid to me, too…good speed, contact ability, strong defense. Might develop a bit more power. main worry is low walk rate, but at least the strikeots aren’t bad.

Amarista is good, too. Will they move Aybar/Kendrick aside? Well, hard to say…depends on things like salaries and injuries, but they at least provide additional options for the Angels to have on hand. I think toolwise the major league duo is better.

Nothing more specific other than he looks very good right now. I think he’s a strong prospect. Frankie really knows his stuff.

The former. Keep in mind he’s the equivalent of a college freshman right now. People need to be patient.

He was overdrafted, yes, but it is way way too early to call him a bust.

Sano….the Miguel Cabrera comparisons look valid to me. He’s raw and has to be the zone under control, but the offensive potential is enormous.

Marisnick: Love speed, tools stand out, power untapped at this point.

Profar: glove ahead of bat at this point, but he is extremely young for the Northwest League.

I’d rate them Sano, Profar, Marisnick at this point.

Yeah check the post from Monday about the Orioles system.

eh…Navarro looks like a future utility guy to me. I just don’t think he’ll hit enough to become a regular, not in Boston anyway. Tejeda has a better bat but given his inconsistent track record I want to see how he hits in Double-A before getting too excited about him either. Both are beneficiares of Boston hype.

1) I don’t know what is up with him. He’s not on the DL and I haven’t heard anything about an injury.

2) Comparing to other systems properly would require several hours of research…I just can’t do that in my head any more. Age is catching up with me.

3) That is a very good question. I know that the As are wondering this themselves and aren’t sure of the answer. They went very heavy with hitting this year trying to address the issue. If this group doesn’t develop either, then there could be a serious systemic issue with coaching or development. What the exact flaw is, I don’t have the information to say.

Tendonitis. Should be throwing again this week.

Arcia: Very intriguing bat, tearing up the appy league but low walk rate is a caution flag. 2011 in the Midwest League will tell us a lot
Rodriguez: Same deal….power potential is very impressive, but problems with the strike zone could chew him up at higher levels. He is younger than Arcia and probably a better long-term prospect, though I trust the Twins to develop Arcia more than I trust the Mets to develop Aderlin.
Tejeda: already answered above.

Oh, that’s a toughie…I’m emotionally attached to Rosenblatt for personal reasons.

Probably current favorite is Oklahoma City….love the Bricktown area.

Trek has much better characters, and the writing/dialog/characters of the Original Series blow Lucas and his shallow cardboard checkers pieces out of the theatre.

I haven’t been able to do much personal scouting this year for a variety of reasons beyond my control. That should change in August, but I haven’t been able to get out east and see Montero catch. Hopefully he will go to the Arizona Fall League, and hopefully I can get there.

What I’ve heard from people who have seen him is that his glove continues to improve slightly, but that he’s still below average overall.

No.

Statistically the only real negative is a high walk rate, the other numbers are very good. Scoutingwise, I would be more concerned about the command than velocity loss at this point. Velocity loss is very common for a HS pitcher in their first full season. As long as the Ks are still there, i wouldn’t worry about that just yet. But the walks have to come down.

Smith is the only one who is more than a marginal grade C, although I do think Sever might have a chance to do something eventually.

way too big of a question for this format. The SS thing would take an hour to do properly, the other one is a week-long project.

I don’t trust Henson’s horrible BB/K ratio. . .29/107 in 368 AB. I think Adams has a better chance to hit, but his defense at 2B is pretty rough. Might be useful on the bench eventually

cuthbert by a hair.

Command is the issue here. I’m not excessively worried yet…he is still quite young, equivalent of college sophomore. I wouldn’t consider a move to third base anytime soon…he’ll have to fail and fail consistently in Double-A before I do that.

That’s another 30 minute research question….would have to go over the whole system. Better question to ask once the short-season leagues close down

Well I kind of like his bat..the problem is that he likely doesn’t have enough power for first base. I don’t see him as a top 15 guy at this point.

Sorry, I will not rank the guys who haven’t played yet against guys who have.

Of the ones who have played professionally enough for the data to be meaningful, I would go
Gose, Robinson, Austin, Marte, Villar.

Well depending on what is going on in the system, he looks like he’ll be in the top 10 Dodgers for sure, but I can’t say where yet. Not number one, possibly top five.

 top 100….probably.

Well if he can handle it, and can actually stick here, he might move up a few notches, but I can’t say that it would hugely move up my opinion of him, which is already very positive.

I think I’d put him at a grade b now.

Rank them just as hitter, or rank them as an overall catcher?

Wieters the best all around, but Santana probably the best hitter.

Well I love all three of them, lol.

Giants fans won’t like this, but I think Santana could be an MVP-caliber hitter and I’m not sure Posey will be. I think I would rank them Santana, Posey, Wieters

meant fastball. He does OK with breaking pitches.

I’ve seen him murder the ball in Triple-A often enough to make me think that he’ll eventually figure it out, but I suspect he’ll need a change of scenery.

I think he’s hitting a bit over his head this year, and his defense can be erratic. If he could play shortstop he’d have a strong future as a utility player, but he’s limited to second base and is no great shakes there. Still, if he keeps hitting like this he could end up finding a spot on the bench. He has some skills….draws walks, some gap power,

Did you check out the Nats in 2013 thread by Satchel Price in the Fanposts?

Peacock’s K numbers are tantalizing, but the rap I’ve heard on him is that he struggles second and third time through the order. If I were the Nats, I’d be promoting him to AA next year but getting ready to convert him to a reliever. Be interested to see what John says about that.

Well you have to love the K/BB and K/IP ratios, but he’s a bit hittable. What i have heard dovetails with what souldrummer reports…he’s got major league stuff (90-93, effective breaking pitches) but is just inconsistent, both from start to start and inning to inning. He’s just 22 and has time to fix that. I don’t know if I’d move him to the bullpen yet though..I’d give him another year in the rotation and see how it goes.

The system is pretty thin in pitching now that Strasburg is up.

I think what he’s doing now is what he should be expected to do, slightly above league average as a hitter. He might show more power eventually as he gets into his late 20s. It could be that the defensive focus hampered his hitting, but it could also be that it was just the difference between the Cal League and upper levels. It was probably a combination of both factors

It was fashionable earlier this year to bash Green. He’s very hot now as you point out. Cal League inflation? To some extent probably. I’m worried about how his plate discipline will look against better pitching. I see him as a guy who will probably be erratic at the major league level…hitting anywhere from .240 to .290 in a given season, sometimes showing power, sometimes not.

Personally I like him, but how he performs in Double-A next year will be critical. He also needs to cut down on his errors, and reports about his range at short are mixed.

Villarreal: A bit old for the FSL, so I’m glad to see he was promoted to Erie recently. Performance metrics have always been strong, fastball and slider both get good reviews, I’m not sure why he doesn’t get more attention except that he’s short for a RHP. I like him.

Soto: Very projectable according to MWL sources, numbers solid, have to love the strong ground ball rate with some strikeouts. Major sleeper for next year.

Furbush….finesse scouting reports with power pitcher statistics. If he maintains the K/IP and K/BB ratios in Triple-A, he could do good major league work next year.

Kind of a broad question, but I don’t disagree with your take. They have several guys that I find interesting….I LOVE Odorizzi, and all of the guys you mention have a chance to get to the majors. Scarpetta could take a big leap forward if he can cut down the walks. Glad to see Fiers in Double-A now, he was too old for A-ball even though he was just drafted last year.

I dunno…when I’ve seen him he just swings at everything. His swing mechanics don’t look that bad to me, but he just chases everything and the pitchers figure him out pretty quick. Is it eyesight? Mental approach? I dunno.

He’s made some progress with the walk rate but the strikeouts will just chew him up in the majors. I also don’t think he’s been well-served by being so young for his levels. . .the Mariners have pushed him too fast in my view

Altuve….well I tell you, this guy has put up the numbers so far without doubt. I have also heard good things about his athleticism and tools. Normally scouts would like him a lot, but he’s so undersized at 5-5, 150, that they are understandbly skeptical.

Fernandez I don’t know much about at this point. I don’t like his BB/K ratio in Rookie ball though.

Hmm…..

Well that depends. I could see Sano developing into a Miguel Cabrera type, moving on to 3B. Profar has a better chance to stick at shortstop but is more of a Elvis Andrus type hitter. So take your pick…both could be legitimate all stars but with different styles of play.

Upside….number two starter. Likely to reach it….that is hard to quantiify in a “likely” number given the huge attrition rate even for the best pitching prospects. Just a guess, I’d say 40% which is actually a pretty strong likelihood.

I like Knecht quite a bit….strong balance of tools, and so far his performance has been pretty good in the NYP League. He is more athletic than Lind, better speed and defensive ability. I can see him turning into a 20-20 player if all goes well.

I think Collins will end up being a successful reliever, not a superstar but effective. Pastornicky projecgts as a utility player at worst, with some chance he gets beyond that.

Well the surface numbers at Eugene are strong but he also has a poor BB/K ratio at 8/30 in 127 at-bats. Even when he hit .350 last year in rookie ball he had problems with the strike zone, so this will be a major issue for him going forward. The tools are clearly here but he has to refine them.

As for general patterns….well sometimes the guys like this adjust and it works out, and sometimes they don’t. Basically the younger the player, the more likely it is that he’ll figure out the higher level eventually. Liriano is 19, so if he goes back to the Midwest League at age 20 next year, that’s not too bad. But if he struggles next year, then his chance of succeeding in subsequent seasons goes down substantially.

I have been slow to give him his due, because this is out of context for the rest of his career, and when I saw him in the past he looked lost. Given that he’s brought his success forward to double-a, I think the improvement is real. He will be in the top 100 although I don’t know where yet.

There are rumors around that the Angels will move him very aggressively. He should begin 2011 in Double-A and if he handles that well he could be in the majors in the second half next year. Sometime in 2012 is a safer bet.

I’m down on Brandon Allen right now. …his bat seems to be stagnating, and there’s a chance he gets stuck as a AAAA slugger rather than a major league regular. Kalish is a better bet to be ready in terms of talent, but it is hard to predict what the Red Sox will do with their roster. he is a superior prospect to Allen on his own terms.

Good question.

I still love Carter, and there are some questions about Green’s defense and plate discipline. I would probably go Carter/Green/Taylor. I still think there is a more complete hitter in Carter than people currently believe.

Not really….relax and enjoy the atmosphere. If you are looking to scout, in a brief series I find it easier to concentrate on the pitchers than the hitters personally.