Minor League Notes, July 2nd, 2010
by John Sickels on Jul 2, 2010 8:00 AM EDT
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PrintMinor League Notes for July 2nd, 2010
Minor League Notes, July 2nd, 2010
**As you've likely heard by now, the Rangers traded right-hander Michael Main to the Giants yesterday for Bengie Molina. I think it makes sense for both teams; the Rangers need a catcher, and the Giants had one to spare. Main was 5-3, 3.45 with a 72/21 K/BB in 91 innings for Class A Bakersfield before the trade, with 87 hits allowed (including 14 homers). The Giants have reportedly assigned him to Double-A Richmond. Main was one of Texas' top prospects heading into 2009, but he missed much of the season with a viral infection and didn't look right when he was on the mound, losing much of his velocity and posting a 6.83 ERA with 72 hits in 58 innings last year. He is healthy this year and the numbers have improved to show it, although his K/IP ratio is merely decent rather than strong. Main is a fine overall athlete and throws a plus fastball, but his secondary pitches, particularly his breaking ball, have regressed since high school. I think a change of organization scenery could do him a lot of good, and he's still only 21 years old.
**The Mets have drafted several small college players in recent years, and one of their finds is outfielder Kirk Nieuwenhuis, an NAIA star at Azusa Pacific drafted in the third round in 2008. He's making the Double-A transition this year at Binghamton with mixed results, hitting .275/.317/.468. He's got power (17 doubles, 10 homers, .193 ISO) and speed (11 steals in 14 attempts; scouts back up the numbers with positive reviews of his athleticism and strength. He also has a good throwing arm. His main problem is strike zone judgment, as shown by his low OBP and 16/66 BB/K ratio in 265 at-bats. Reports from Eastern League sources indicate that he handles fastballs well, but still has problems recognizing breaking pitches. At age 22 he still has time to work on this, but if he's rushed too fast he will struggle; he'll likely need a good dose of Triple-A. I gave him a Grade C+ in the book and see no reason to change that at this point, but I'd like to see improvement in that BB/K.
**Age-Relative-To-League is a critical factor in prospect analysis, but it isn't everything. With that in mind, how do we judge a player like Carlos Triunfel? The Mariners prospect seems like he's been around forever, but is still only 20 years old. He's hitting .284/.322/.376 for Double-A West Tennessee....good batting average, but not much power and a low walk rate are major negatives. On the other hand, his strikeout rate is also low...just 35 whiffs in 282 at-bats. Also of note is a strong platoon split: .260/.306/.326 against right-handers, but a more robust .327/.352/.465 against lefties. I'm still not sure what kind of player Triunfel is going to become, but the birthday and the low strikeout rate are positives. If you take his Southern League/West Tennessee stats and convert them to California League equivalents (neutral park), you get a .333/.379/.450 mark; someone hitting like that at age 20 in the Cal League would be getting a lot more attention. If you convert him to Midwest League/neutral park equivalents, you get .343/.391/.466. . .and there are a lot of 20 year olds in the Midwest League. Don't give up on Triunfel just yet.
**Jordan Lyles in the Astros system is only 19, and he's pitching in the Texas League with outstanding results: 2.60 ERA, 85/22 K/BB in 93 innings, 87 hits. I know he doesn't have the 99 MPH fastball that attracts notice, but he throws hard enough in the low-90s, his secondary stuff is advanced for his age, he throws strikes, and his performance has been excellent. He's also a good athlete. I don't know why he doesn't get more attention, but he looks like a helluva prospect to me. At this rate he'll be a Top Ten Pitching Prospect by the end of the year. Depending on what happens with other pitchers and what his year-end numbers and scouting reports look like, he could be a Top Five guy.
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Another weaknees for Nieuwenhuis is high fastballs
He just doesn’t have the bat speed to catch up to them.
Others know more than me, but I pretty much agree with this.
Molina is slow and not hitting that well, and Giants fans are dancing in the streets. I’m a Nats fan and have no dog in this fight but it seems better for the Giants, especially with the prospects they are getting back for the cash they are kicking in.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
Agreed, I don't get it from their perspective either.
The Rangers kind of needed a catcher, but that doesn’t make Molina an upgrade. I’m not sure that Molina will really be all that much better than what Treanor/Ramirez would’ve been.
Giving up Michael Main in order to acquire an arguable improvement that wouldn’t cost money makes little sense to me.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jul 2, 2010 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
and why make the move right now?
Wouldn’t waiting have brought the price down a bit, simply by lessening the salary relief? Couldn’t you ride Treanor and Ramirez at least through the all star break?
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Check out Gammon's twitter
He all but had Molina announced to the Sox.
"I support you, Wash; I’ve always supported you," Young said
"Back on the scene, with a gangsta lean" RW
And I suppose the price for Chris Snyder
was just too high.
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I think it's bad too
On the other hand, I think there’s a real chance that Molina has a strong second half moving to that ballpark, and makes it at least not laughable, especially if the Rangers can somehow get him to decline arbitration in the offseason.
Of course “not laughable” is damning with faint praise. Giants clearly won the trade.
Too much depth
I believe this is the result of having a farm system that´s almost too deep.
On most teams, Main would probably be close to untouchable and one of the top 3 P prospects in the organization. With Texas, he quite possibly wasn´t even in the top 5 P prospects and possibly barely in the top 10 overall in that system. You can only make so many farm guys “off limit” in trade for marginal upgrades like Molina.
Hmmmm. Interesting perspective.
But if there farm system is really that deep shouldn’t they be going after the big enchilada in Cliff Lee over the small pickins of Molina?
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
But is Molina even a marginal upgrade?
I just worry that the Rangers just gave up Main in order to add a cost-neutral upgrade that isn’t actually an upgrade.
ZiPS has Treanor projected for a .291 wOBA, Ramirez for a .305 wOBA, and Molina for a .308 wOBA.
Molina should provide a sizable improvement over Ramirez/Treanor against LHP, but really that’s about it. The Rangers just gave up Michael Main and Chris Ray in order to add a cost-neutral upgrade at catcher against left-handed pitchers. Not impressed.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jul 2, 2010 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Okay so I just answered my question, yes Molina is an upgrade against LHP
But over the course of 80 games, how much value is that going to be? Like a half-win at most?
It just wasn’t worth giving up Main.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jul 2, 2010 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions
no
Main would not be untouchable in any organization. he’s a nice prospect. that’s really it. i’m not saying it was right to do this trade, it definitely wasn’t IMO. but if your not willing to trade a non top-100 prospect in baseball to upgrade, that’s a problem.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
ditto
Main is nowhere near untouchable unless you’re an independent league team. He’s got a shot to be a 3rd starter, might end up as a mid or late innings reliever. Not even close to untouchable.
Freude schöner Götterfunken, Tochter aus Elysium, Freude!
I think that the bigger point is that Molina isn't really an upgrade
Trading Main for a legitimate, cost-neutral upgrade wouldn’t be a bad move.
Trading Main in order to land a cost-neutral Bengie Molina is a bad move.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jul 2, 2010 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions
whether this deal is really that good or bad for the Rangers (for the Giants, it’s clearly a steal) depends on what they wanted. If their primary objective was to get a veteran catcher who can handle a young pitching staff and mentor young catchers, then Molina is as good as any (though, his defense has slipped this season) who were available and they won’t have to pay him, which is why they had to give up Main, an interesting prospect with a relatively high ceiling, but far from a sure thing.
The Rangers aren’t the Giants. They won’t need Molina’s offense (which is good because he doesn’t produce any), and he won’t be playing everyday, which will extend his usefulness. He’s the epitome of a solid veteran platoon catcher.
Overall, not a bad deal for the Rangers, though due to their financial situation, they had to give up something consequential to get the player they wanted.
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by nostocksjustbonds on Jul 2, 2010 2:36 PM EDT reply actions
Agreed
I am shocked that so many people are upset about dealing Main. If the Rangers feel that Molina can benefit their team, them a prospect of Main’s caliber should not get in the way of the deal. It is low cost, low risk, and definitely a smart deal by both teams.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
by King Billy Royal on Jul 2, 2010 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Agree to a point
If they wait 3-4 weeks to make a deal does the cost come down? There are other catchers available and/or they could have stuck with Treanor/Max for a little while longer.
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I can see that...
But if a contender loses a catcher the price might actually increase. Does anyone think Boston looks to add a guy with Varitek and Vmart hurt?
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
by King Billy Royal on Jul 2, 2010 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm somewhat surprised the Rangers didn't call the Jays on Buck
unless of course they did and Double A overpriced Buck even more than what the Rangers gave up for Molina.
Molina was in Toronto a couple of years ago. He was decent. Not sure how he is now defensively but from what is said on here, seems like he’s going downwards.
Now that I’ve seen Buck and Molina I think they are pretty much the same defensively although I don’t know what the defensive stats look like for either player.
If I was the Jays GM, I would have had no problem trading Buck for Main or even a little lesser sp prospect.
jordan lyles = most under-rated prospect
good to see a bit of spotlight shown on him, but let’s get real – he’s already a top 10 pitching prospect…..he’s proved a lot of people wrong this year
I'm surprised
everyone thinks this is a bad trade for Texas and everyone thinks this is a minimal upgrade. I’m kinda surprised that the Giants moved Molina since they too are in a pennant race. They are turning one of the best staffs in baseball over to a catcher that has had some questionable receiving skills, especially handling +Velo. Granted it is a veteran staff, but this could be a huge issue.
Treanor is a career 230 hitter, who is mostly known for being married to a professional volleyball player. He has never been a contributor in a playoff run. Bengie has been around the block, has been in the post season, and is known for being a “clutch” hitter. His numbers will get a boost by going back to the AL, and also going to Arlington.
Texas gave up a fragile reliever and a prospect that was ranked as their 21st rated prospect by BA going into the season. Yes he has some upside, but that’s what they had to give up to save cash.
the price tag doesn’t seem all that high for a pretty much everyday catcher with his resume. The trade isn’t about just offensive stats, Texas needed a legit every day catcher, and they got one at no monetary cost.
What's the report on Triunfel defense?
Is he still playing SS?, does he have a chance to keep playing in that position?
carlos
From what I saw in the Arizona Fall League, he looked more like a 3B to me…I don’t think he has the range for short. Good arm though. Still at short this year but error-prone and with a weak range factor. Question though…if he moves to 3B, there will be more pressure on his power to develop.
by John Sickels on Jul 5, 2010 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions
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