What's the Matter with B.J. Upton?

by John Sickels on Jul 18, 2010 11:15 AM EDT

Thoughts on B.J. Upton

I started working on a Prospect Retro for B.J. Upton this morning, but ran into a roadblock.

I last looked at him in April 2009, which I will reproduce here.

Not A Rookie: B.J. Upton

B.J. Upton was drafted by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays in the first round in 2002, second overall, out of high school in Chesapeake, Virginia. He was considered an excellent all-around athlete, and at the time was rated as an above-average defensive shortstop. Scouts weren't sure how much power he would show at higher levels, but they expected him to hit for average, get on base, and steal plenty of bags, comparing him to a young Derek Jeter. I gave him a Grade B in the 2003 book pending some pro performance, as he signed too late to play in '02.

Upton began 2003 with Charleston in the Sally League, hitting .302/.394/.445 with 38 steals. Promoted to Double-A Orlando for August, he held his own with a .276/.376/.381 mark. Scouts were full of praise for his bat: he showed good plate discipline and developing power. His range and arm strength were evident on defense, but he was having a lot of trouble with routine plays. Some scouts felt this would get better with time, while others were already discussing a move to third base or even the outfield. I gave him a coveted Grade A in the 2004 book, very confident in his future.

Upton began 2004 with Double-A Montgomery, hitting .327/.407/.471 in 29 games. Promoted to Triple-A Durham, he continued to dominate with a .311/.411/.519 mark in 69 games. He also stole 20 bases between the two levels. He made his major league debut that summer, hitting .258/.324/.09 in 45 games for the Rays at age 19, losing his rookie eligibility. His bat was very promising, but defense looked like a big problem. He simply wasn't reliable enough defensively.

He spent 2005 in Triple-A working on his defense, hitting .303/.392/.490. His offensive skills continued to grow, power, strike zone judgment, speed. But he made 53 errors, obviously unacceptable. He returned to Triple-A in 2006 and his bat was less impressive, with a .269/.372/.394 mark in 106 games. He made 28 errors in 84 games at shortstop, then got into 18 games at third base with a .900 fielding percentage. He got into 50 games with the Rays, hitting .246/.302/.291.

If you'll remember back then, there was some concern that Upton might not live up to early expectations. His bat came alive again in 2007, as he hit .300/.386//508 with 22 steals and 24 homers, splitting his defensive time between second base and center field. He finally settled in as a full time outfielder in '08, hitting .273/.383/.401. . .his power dropped off, but that seems to be related to a shoulder injury, and he was devastating in the post-season.

What should we expect from B.J. Upton in the future? That's actually a good question: at his best he's terrific, but his track record is rather erratic. He made a big improvement with his strike zone judgment last year, boosting his walk rate while cutting his strikeouts. That will help. The main concern seems to be the shoulder again. He's expected to be back in game action within 10 days, but you never know what kind of impact that will have, and I'm concerned that durability may be a frequent problem for him.

Projections for 2009:

Shandler:    .281/.377/.442, 40 steals, 17 homers in 545 at-bats.
James         .289/.387/.441, 38 steals, 14 homers in 501 at-bats
PECOTA:   .266/.365/.422, 39 steals, 13 homers in 548 at-bats
CHONE:    .282/.388/.439, 41 steals, 15 homers in 524 at-bats
ZIPS           .271/.377/.434, 36 steals, 18 homers in 532 at-bats

Four of those projections are very close, with the weighted mean PECOTA being the pessimistic outlier. If Upton's shoulder is healthy, I think all of those projections are possibly pessimistic; he's fully capable of a .300, 30 homer, 30 steals season with a high OBP if his shoulder is okay.

Since then, Upton had a very disappointing 2009 (.241/.313/.373, 79 OPS+), and hasn't been much better this year (.232/.323/.393, 92 OPS+). He's been rated as an excellent defensive outfielder at least, but, well...there is no way to spin the bat as anything positive.

Here is the roadblock. People want to know what's wrong with his bat, and I don't know. I could pretend I know, but I don't.

You can look at the Fangraphs data yourself....he's been weak against both fastball and breaking balls the last two seasons. His GB/FB data, LD%, GB%, and FB% have been unchanged in '09 and ‘10. He hit a greater percentage of line drives back in '07 and '08, but that's just descriptive: it does not tell us why this happened operationally. While I love Fangraphs, it doesn't tell us the why. Why is he hitting fewer line drives?

Is it a problem with his swing or his mental approach? Is it a cumulative effect of injuries? I don't know.

Do any of you Rays fans who watch him everyday know?

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Comments

That shoulder is done for ie.. Eric Chavez

Upton will never live up to his promise.

by Bravesin07 on Jul 18, 2010 12:03 PM EDT reply actions

Link?

I remember reading about Chavez’s problems and that it was going to be a career long issue, but with Upton it seemed like the medical prognosis was that he’d be fine long term. Where are you getting this from?

by Franchise887 on Jul 18, 2010 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh you know better, there is no link. It’s just Braves gut.

by jfish26101 on Jul 18, 2010 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Shoulder looked healthy

In the 2008 playoffs

Fat man is no more,
Bursting on through Heaven's Door
Come on in, says Bill

by Wilbur Wood on Jul 18, 2010 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions

It was not. He got hot. He immediately had shoulder surgery following the playoffs.

Tools Whore

by Tyler on Jul 18, 2010 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions

stfu

by daveh33 on Jul 21, 2010 12:58 AM EDT up reply actions

Is this called for?

Honestly, your bias towards Upton shouldn’t impact your ability to remain civil.

by King Billy Royal on Jul 21, 2010 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions

its a joke

i’m playing to the level of the competition.

my ‘stfu’ was just as baseless as Braves knowing anything about Upton’s shoulder.

by daveh33 on Jul 21, 2010 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions

I never liked

the toe-tap timing mechanism or the locked left arm/shoulder. reminds me too much of my garbage swing back in the day. haha. almost seems like the planets have to align to get the front foot down and the bat head out front.

by richieabernathy on Jul 18, 2010 12:33 PM EDT reply actions

I would guess it’s a combination of injuries and mental approach. He’s never really recovered from the shoulder injury and his mental approach to the game has always been questioned.

"Even the Swedes are getting mad."-Randy Hahn
"It's very cozy in the sin bin."-Randy Hahn

by 49er16 on Jul 18, 2010 1:04 PM EDT reply actions

I'd be interested to see if he ever gets eye surgery

he has really poor pitch recognition and I almost wonder if he could use lasak (spelling) like a few players have gotten over the last few years.

by Dbullsfan on Jul 18, 2010 1:08 PM EDT reply actions

Poor pitch recognition?

His BB% is 11.4, well above average

by benderbrodriguez on Jul 18, 2010 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions

I think he means recognizing fastball vs. changeup vs. cutter, etc.

He still isn’t aggressive, but he is more aggressive than before. He will always have very good walk rates.

by Navi's_Navy on Jul 18, 2010 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Some of that has to do with his mental state though I think. I’m not saying a change of scenery would fix him but I think he is pressing and has been for some time. I was talking with someone else about how everyone looks at him as a huge disappointment even though he is still a 3-4 win player. He puts up an average wOBA with well above average to plus defense in CF. He is only 27 and still holds that potential, I’m not sure if he will ever fully live up to his hype but he is still a very good player even if he continues right around a 85-100 OPS+ bat.

by jfish26101 on Jul 18, 2010 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions

At the Rays SBN blog

Most of the writers are convinced he’s just had bad luck as much as anything. Power is legitimately down, but lingering arm and shoulder injuries can do that.

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Jul 18, 2010 1:11 PM EDT reply actions

I have a hard time believing that Upton is just unlucky right now

His contact rate is down to 73%, and he’s swinging-and-missing at a brutal 12.6% clip.

He’s showing a much more aggressive approach this year (47% swing percentage, compared to previous marks of 43%, 40% and 44% from 2007-2009), but he also seems to be having trouble really connecting with the ball.

Honestly, I don’t watch him enough to know exactly what ails him, but he’s clearly a different hitter now than he was two or three years ago.

I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy

by Satchel Price on Jul 18, 2010 1:43 PM EDT reply actions

From a Rays fan

power is coming back from the shoulder surgery. (ISO of about .170 is second highest of his career, lots of doubles (22 counting today) along with 3 triples and 7 home runs is good to see).

He has made less contact this year and swung at more pitches this year, which is surprising given a pretty good walk rate, even for him. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him stop swinging as he realizes his strength is in wearing pitchers out, because I feel he will always have contact issues, but that walk rate should go up, and a BB% around 13% is pretty great for a non-three true outcome player.

The base-running has improved immensely this year, as his CS numbers are down, and his speed score is in true top of the line territory. The defensive numbers are down, but I’m not overly concerned because he is still +5.5 UZR/150, and TZ likes him even more. He has the tools to be a +10 defender, but he still needs work on his route running and his ability to make reads. He still depends a lot on his arm which has been down this year surprisingly (again, SSS).

Some feel his .295 BABIP is a little low for someone with so much speed, even with a low LD% (decent GB%) and high K rate.

The tools are all still there, and while this season has shot my confidence in his ability to improve on that contact rate, I have faith he will get more patient again and an already good walk rate will improve. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him sitting around a .200 – .220 ISO through his prime years with a .250-.260 batting average with +5 defense in CF and a 13% walk rate.

This year’s performance is undoubtedly his bottom end, and even without the defense we are accustomed too he is going to be a 2.5 WAR player at this pace. Many feel he may have reached his ceiling given how many years he has in the majors, but if a 2.5 WAR player is his downside, and he still has all that potential (raw power is still there. He hit 4 fly balls to the wall in an 0-4 game before the all star break, forget the game itself). Clearly anecdotal, but I think it illustrates the point.

At worst, he should put up around 2.5 WAR for the coming 5-7 years with a year or two in there where he puts up a 4 WAR because of nothing but BABIP luck as a result of his speed.

He is broken if you judge him based on expectations, but I’m fine with this player and the steady improvements I’ve been seeing, especially when you couple it with his raw potential and age.

by Navi's_Navy on Jul 18, 2010 2:12 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Seems real balanced and appreciate your post.

On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.

by souldrummer on Jul 21, 2010 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions

to me it looks like a combination of

Upton’s poor contact rate and pitch recognitiion. He’s striking out once per game and while his walk rate is good, he needs to take some of those mistake pitches and turn them into hits. From watching his at bats on TV a lot, he doesn’t appear to be hitting the ball as solid anymore and looks more like a slap hitter at times. My guess is that Upton will likely end up somewhere between the player he was in 2007 and is today. It appears he will be a solid player, but never a star.

Perhaps he is just the player we see now and not the player from 2007 that had a .393 BABIP. The more one looks at the stats the more it appears that 2007 was the abberation and not the other way around. Upton never showed prodigious power in the minors so I don’t know why some are expecting him to be a 30 homer guy in the majors. Yes, he had a couple of SLG percentages over .500, but so did other minor leaguers that had a lot less power in the majors (Corey Patterson – he comes to mind in more than 1 way for Upton). Maybe all Upton is is a 15 homer, 35-40 double guy with some speed.

by Looney4baseball on Jul 18, 2010 2:57 PM EDT reply actions

About the photo

Did Miguel Olivo get whacked in the head with the bat in that picture? Or is he just whipping off his mask? Just looks weird.

by StickRat on Jul 18, 2010 3:18 PM EDT reply actions

What value do the Rays place on Upton now?

What is Upton worth to the Rays now, considering his conflict with Longoria, Crawford’s emminent departure, and Desmond Jennings waiting in the wings? Could a change of scenery benefit him?

by neifiisgreat on Jul 18, 2010 7:23 PM EDT reply actions

Mariners were trying to build a deal for Lee around him and the Rays declined

Friedman made a comment that they weren’t looking to “sell low” and that a move, if it happened, would almost certainly happen in the off-season, so take that as you will. I think they’re entertaining offers, but are tepid about moving him for the time being.

by Navi's_Navy on Jul 19, 2010 1:38 AM EDT up reply actions