Anthony Rendon injured
Lack of a daily thread didn't give me a place to put this, but worth talking about. Anthony Rendon injured his leg yesterday and was carted off the field. Aaron Fitt of Baseball America reports that Rendon has multiple fractures in his ankle and foot, and will miss the rest of the summer. Given the severity of the injury, I'm guessing he'll be out a while longer than that.
Still your #1 guy heading into next year? Probably as long as he can still hit, but I wonder how this might affect him defensively, and he wasn't exactly fleet of foot to begin with.
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The injury doesn't worry me as much as that it is the second time he's broken his ankle
He did it last year in the Rice’s final Super Regional game against LSU. Perhaps he just doesn’t like to play Summer Ball.
same ankle?
I’d expect his power to be sapped for a while when he comes back.
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Same ankle
It is the same ankle, but he “only” tore ligaments during the LSU super regional game in 2009, no broken bones.
in case you were wondering
a “broken ankle” is torn ligaments; a “fractured ankle” is broken bones.
(I don’t know if that’s concrete/universal, but that’s what I was told when I fractured mine)
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by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jul 15, 2010 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Fractures and breaks...
are both bones….they are the same thing, just different terminology
Sprains are ligaments and Strains are tendons.
Yup
and “sprains” and “strains” are the same thing as “tears” in the same way fractures are the same thing as breaks. A sprain or strain is typically just small or even micro tears of a ligament or tendon.
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Commence wrist cutting.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jul 15, 2010 9:15 AM EDT reply actions
The possibility that this hurts his defense
Struck me as well.
I suspect he’s still the first overall pick, though. Not that I’ll complain if he drops and my team picks him up.
And now the Orioles
Will actually manage to stay in the first spot. I was worried they would play their way out of taking him…
I'm still hoping the Pirates are the worst team in the league and draft him
It’s unfortunate, but I don’t see this as being all that harmful to his stock. Now, if his range at third is impacted next year, then his stock will drop some. At this point though, I still have him ahead of Purke by a healthy margin.
Pirates are the worst team in the league. Record just hasn't reflected it yet.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jul 15, 2010 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
And we can assume that while you should never draft for need, the Pirates might just go with one of the starting pitchers if they had #1.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jul 15, 2010 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Because Pedro Alvarez and not much pitching talent in the organization?
by Kenneth Arthur on Jul 15, 2010 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Anthony Rendon is a significantly better defender than Pedro
Assuming his ankle is fine of course. Considering the system doesn’t have an MLB caliber first baseman in it, moving Pedro over once Rendon is ready is a very easy choice.
Well
If his ankle injuries cause Rendon to lose a step or two, I’d think he’d be the better candidate to move to 1st.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Jul 16, 2010 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions
If it is a problem, perhaps
But he went through a similar injury last year and remained a well above average defender at third.
Well
This injury sounds alot more scary than last year’s. Jason Kendall was never the same again after his ankle blew up. sigh I’m hoping you’re right.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Jul 17, 2010 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I think that was the ugliest injury I've ever actually seen
I’m pretty sure Rendon’s bone never broke though his skin.
UGH
Almost 1/3 of the Pirates’ wins are against the Cubs (9-3). Every loss to them kills me since I drafted Rendon in my NL only league.
BTW, the nearest Orioles’ equivalent are the Red Sox but they’ve only beaten them 6 out of 12 times.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Jul 16, 2010 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions
He can't possibly be the consensus No. 1 pick anymore, right?
Not in a draft as stacked as next year’s.
I mean, the college starter class is stacked with Gerrit Cole, Matt Purke, Taylor Jungmann, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer, Danny Hultzen and Alex Meyer, among others.
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Sure he can be
But, who cares really. The consensus 12 months out from the draft is worth even less than the consensus 12 days before the draft. And even that’s not worth very much!
by realitypolice on Jul 15, 2010 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Not the past few years...
for the number one pick. Strasburg, Harper, and even Price were all favorites to be the number one pick a year before the draft and all ended up going number one.
ETHAN MARTIN!!!!
Rendon vs. Top Pitchers
It seems everyday a pitcher is getting his shoulder or elbow cut into by a doctor. The threat of a future injury to a pitcher(especially in the shoulder) scares me as much as Rendon’s current injury.
Rendon is still #1 for me. If he loses the spot then it will happen during the college season.
Probably depends on how he plays in the spring, don't you think?
If he isn’t back in time for the season at Rice, then it is a different question, but right now it looks more like a Christian Colon situation.
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A little pre-mature
This type of injury is obviously not going to help his stoc, but it’s a little early to be writing him off as the top pick. Let’s see how the recovery is over the winter, it’s a long time to go until next year’s college games and there’s still a whole college season to play.
Yeah
Injuries never help your stock and especially having multiple injuries. But realistically he is not a speed guy so if he bounces back healthy and has another solid year there is no reason why he won’t be the #1 pick and has the potential to become elite.
I think it will be hard for teams to pass him based on talent, and hard for teams to take him if they think he's going to be JD Drew.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jul 15, 2010 12:20 PM EDT reply actions
Injury prone
I don’t think it is fair to think Rendon is injury prone. He’s now blown out his ankle twice, but he played in every collegiate game in 2009 (injured ankle last game of the season) and in 2010. Summer ball is a different story, but he hasn’t had any kind of nagging injuries that force him to miss games.
Not knocking JD Drews career. But injuries certainly derailed it.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jul 15, 2010 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Derailed it?
Come on now. Sure they’ve limited his overall value, but he’s still had an amazing career despite the injuries. I’d take 135 or so games of Drew (He’s played that much in over 1/2 his career seasons) over the vast majority of the players in baseball. Without all the missed games he’s a borderline HOF player.
I'm just curious as to why Drew's career would be considered too disappointing
When he’s put up these WAR numbers in his best seasons:
8.5, 5.9, 4.8, 4.0, 4.0, 4.0, 2.9, 2.8, 2.7, 1.9, 1.8, 1.1
And he’s at 2.4 WAR this season, so presumably he’ll have another near-4 WAR season to add.
A career line of .283/.390/.502 while playing plus defense in right field and 46.7 WAR in 11.5 seasons. I don’t know about you, but those are some pretty awesome numbers.
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by Satchel Price on Jul 15, 2010 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions
It's not that I think the argument is invalid. Its just that I don't have much interest in J.D. Drew. I didn't expect it to get into a J.D. Drew argument. Just that he got hurt a lot.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jul 15, 2010 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't mean that to sound jerkish, I could have picked a better example of an injury-prone pick I suppose.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jul 15, 2010 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah..
He’s played in 135+ games six times and 100+ games ten times over the course of an 11-year span.
Plus, he’s averaged 4.9 WAR per 150 games, which makes him a really freaking good player.
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by Satchel Price on Jul 15, 2010 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Actually
I think it was the choice of the word derailed. Don Mattingly had his career derailed by injury. Bo Jackson. Dave Dravecky. Drew is more like Jack Clark, a talented and valuable hitter who spent the middle of his career (25-30) bouncing between full season and injury-shortened campaigns.
by blackoutyears on Jul 15, 2010 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, nearly 50 wins in value is 50 wins in value
I don’t care if he only plays 110 games in a season if he’s a top-level player in those 110 games, and Drew is exactly that kind of guy.
Five wins in 110 games is just as good, if not better, than five wins in 150 games.
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by Satchel Price on Jul 16, 2010 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Sigh.
Semantics in the word “derailed”
If it weren’t for injury, maybe he posts 7 win seasons. That’s it. I’m not saying he sucked.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jul 16, 2010 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, he did post a 8.5-win season, a 6-win season, and multiple other 4+ win seasons.
Yeah, it’s disappointing, but it’s not really worth complaining about.
The only way that you could be disappointed with Drew’s career is if you believed that he was on his way to becoming an all-time great like Mantle or something, and personally I’m not big on bestowing those kinds of expectations on someone so prematurely.
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by Satchel Price on Jul 17, 2010 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions
If Jim Rice deserves to be in the HOF
etc., etc., etc….
He'd have a decent case once he finished playing, which is what I mean by borderline
If he had played 150-160 games a season instead of 120-125 his numbers would look a heck of a lot better than they do. He’d end up over 60 WAR by the time he hung them up. Better counting stats and a career line of .280/.390/.500 with great defense in RF. Probably wouldn’t get in, but a few saber inclined people would probably put the argument out there.
Yeah, he just doesn't really feel like a Hall of Famer
But when everything’s said and done, his overall production will likely be similar to or better than a lot of guys that were good enough to get voted in.
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by Satchel Price on Jul 15, 2010 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Production Is Not His Strong Suit
Here is his average season. From 1999 to 2009. I cut off 1998 because he only played in 14 games.
Games 121 PA 480 AB 401 R 77 H 113 2B 22 3B 4 HR 19 R 63
Take away that OPS and that looks pretty damn mediocre to me.
Same guy, new name.
by stillredsoxfan on Jul 15, 2010 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions
The whole premise was if Drew didn't get injured so much
Per full season those numbers are something along the line of
100+ R, 29 2B, 5 3B, 25 HR, 85 RBI
Certainly nothing to sneeze at and that would be in rather low number of PA for someone playing that much and hitting where Drew should have been.
Coming from a plus defender in RF and a very good baserunner that's damn good.
He’s going to be borderline production wise. He’ll never get voted in, though.
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Please Elaborate
If you can make a case for him, production wise, I’d love to hear it. But I don’t think it’s possible. I’m not trying to pick a fight with you or anything here but the thought that the guy is borderline sounds simply ridiculous to me.
Same guy, new name.
by stillredsoxfan on Jul 16, 2010 12:59 AM EDT up reply actions
That's a very good line from a RF who plays plus defense.
That’s a very valuable player. JD Drew is a very valuable player. There are plenty of OF who hit more than he does who don’t provide as much value to their team.
JD Drew is about a 4 win player when you add up his defense, hitting and baserunning. That’s a perennial all star and very valuable. There are a good amount of regular OFs in the majors who hit as well or better than Drew. There are a good amount of regular OFs in the majors who field as well or better than Drew. There are very, very few who both field and hit as well as Drew at the same time.
Drew has been the 10th most valuable OFer in baseball to date in 2010. He was the 4th best OFer in 2009. He was the 7th best OFer in 2008. He was 24th in 2007, 6th in 2006, 11th in 2005. 1st in 2004. The guy has consistently been among the elite players in the game for the last decade.
As for his HOF candidacy, he’s been worth a little more than 46 wins in his career. That’s pretty damn high. As a prospect and young player he was considered one of the most talented players in the game. He is really good at baseball. He will certainly end his career having had a better career than many HOFers… but since a good portion of his value lies in a number of areas that aren’t immediately obvious to the common moron fan, broadcasters and sportswriters he doesn’t really have a shot. Drew has been one of the best players in the game the last decade even though most people don’t recognize or appreciate it
If Drew retired tomorrow he would already have had a better career than guys like Don Mattingly, Dave Parker, Albert Belle, Ernie Lombardi, Paul O’Neill, Maury Wills, Daryl Strawberry, Nomar, Roy Campanella…
Drew is 34 and has the kind of skillset that should age well. let’s conservatively assume he has at least four more years left, and we’ll discount the per year WAR to 3 (less than we’d expect now, but perhaps more than we’d expect near the end). That would put him in pretty good territory with HOFers below him. Again, he’s not going to make it, but he’ll almost certainly end up a borderline guy based on what he’s done in his career.
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A bit of a Compiler
Career “Win/WAR” totals overrate compilers that were never truly dominent.
The HOF is for elite players. Not saying these guys kept their peaks long enough to make it but guys like Mattingly, Parker, Belle (yes fueled by Roids), Campanella were top 5 MVP caliber players when at their best, which has never been the case for Drew.
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Drew's 5 best seasons
8.5 WAR
5.9
4.8
4.0
4.0
Mattingly:
7.7
6.6
6.6
5.5
4.2
You have a bit of a point and I’m certainly open to that sentiment, but the HOF has never actually worked that way… and I think you’re overstating the case with Drew. As I said above, he’s been one of the great players at his position for a long time. His game is built on consistency, though. I think Raffy Palmeiro might be a good comp in this respect. He was a guy who many considered on a HOF track through consistency.
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JD Drew somewhat of an enigma
He is underrated by traditionalists and overrated by sabermetrics.
Mattingly’s peak vs JD Drew’s peak.
1984-86 Yankees averaged less than 800 runs per season. 2004 Braves scored 803 runs. Drew consistently accomplished less than what one would expect in terms of actual run production (yes the flawed Runs and RBI’s). Has there ever been an 8.5 WAR middle of the order power bat that drove in only 93 runs on a good offense? Other than 2004, for all of his BB prowess he’s never scored more than 84 runs in a season.
So Drew consistently generates underwhelming counting stats despite playing on really good offenses and hitting in really good spots in the lineup.
Seems to me that some of these stats still have some holes in them. Great articles today on FanGraphs (BABIP) and BP (Fielding Metrics), that I might start a new post on.
Where is the “value” in playing every day like Mattingly? Should Drew’s WAR be really the sum total of the ~ 135 games he plays on average and than 20 games of production from the 5th OF-er on the bench who may have to take his spot in the lineup 20 times more than guys like Parker and Mattingly in their primes who played every day?
Anyway, I’ll take Mattingly, circa 1984-86, over JD drew, circa 2004, and take my chances.
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His replacements should be replacement level or better
That would make his WAR go up if anything.
Drew as a compiler.
That’s pretty funny. How the hell is a guy who’s averaged 111 games during his 12 full season a “compiler”?
Drew is an extremely good player who is overlooked because most people don’t know how to look past counting stats. If you’re going to knock him, knock his durability. To argue that he’s not an elite player is demonstrably untrue.
Thanks For The Compliment
I really wish I had time for a more detailed reply but I need to get ready for work.
but since a good portion of his value lies in a number of areas that aren’t immediately obvious to the common moron fan, broadcasters and sportswriters he doesn’t really have a shot.
I was talking about actual “production”. I know he’s a good defender. But just like his bat, his glove does no good in the clubhouse.
I also have a question and no time to try and figure it out. The year he had that 8.5 war season. 2004 correct? He had a ton of assists that year. That didn’t drive his fielding runs up to 16.3 (which was 5 more than his next best year) which possibly inflated his overall WAR did it?
Take a look at Dwight Evans Career. When I think of a “borderline” HOF RF who played great defense and got on base that’s who I think of.
Same guy, new name.
by stillredsoxfan on Jul 16, 2010 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm assuming your dislike of Drew stems from being a Red Sox fan that thinks he's fragile or something?
In his Boston career, Evans averaged 132 games per season putting up a .272/.369/.473 line. Including a prorated 2010, in his Boston tenure Drew has put up a .276/.385/.486 line over 132 games per season.
hmmm....
It looks like you’re also including Evans’ first MLB action, a year which only saw him play 18 games, and also including his first ‘full season,’ which he wasn’t even a full time player yet.
I’m rather indifferent on this entire argument, but things like that should probably be noted.
He Is Fragile
But that’s not really the point though is it? My dislike goes back a few years to when Damon was a free agent the year before they signed Drew. I figured they might have been able to sign Damon for the same sort of deal the Dodgers offered Furcal. I believe it was 3/39. Which is basically what the Yanks gave him except they went to the 4th year.
Maybe the Sox were better off not signing Damon at the time though, since he was declining and was nowhere near the defender Drew is.
But it made no sense then and it still doesn’t make sense now why they would turn around and drop a 5/70 contract on a guy that had barely avg 120 games a year when they wouldn’t spend the year before.
But that’s more of a problem I have with the front office instead of Drew. They have a lot of pennies one year and no pennies the next.
As for Drew being fragile, we are talking about a guy who once missed a game because he hit his head going down the dugout steps. I really wish I could have found the link to the story to back this up, but I swear I remember reading that note from a few years ago.
Same guy, new name.
by stillredsoxfan on Jul 16, 2010 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions
The fact that he only plays 120-130 games a year
Doesn’t mean a thing for the Red Sox as long as he’s healthy in October. They have the money to spend on getting a good 4th OF that can fill in when Drew goes down so they don’t end up with a hole in the order. The big thing is when October comes around he gives you a true difference maker. That makes him very valuable for a team that plans on playing in October every single year.
I was talking about actual "production". I know he’s a good defender. But just like his bat, his glove does no good in the clubhouse.
What does this mean? How does his bat help in the clubhouse and not his glove? This is nonsensical.
The year he had that 8.5 war season. 2004 correct? He had a ton of assists that year. That didn’t drive his fielding runs up to 16.3 (which was 5 more than his next best year) which possibly inflated his overall WAR did it?
No, its from his range. He played a great OF that year ( and probably had more than the usual amount of balls hit to him). UZR actually calculates his arm -1.0 that season.
Take a look at Dwight Evans Career. When I think of a "borderline" HOF RF who played great defense and got on base that’s who I think of.
I think that’s a great comp. Dewey actually has a pretty decent case as a borderline guy for the HOF.
Please bear in mind I’m not arguing for Drew in the HOF. I’m just saying he’s actually still underrated and more deserving of consideration than many believe. Unless he has a huge late career renaissance he’s not a HOFer for me.
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It Went Over Your Head Huh?
I meant that his bat and his glove do nothing for the team while he’s out of the lineup. I think if you read it again you’ll get what I was saying.
Reading Wilbur Wood’s post above pretty much sums up any arguments I can or would make.
To put it as simply as possible what’s the point of having a Ferrari if its always in the garage?
Same guy, new name.
by stillredsoxfan on Jul 16, 2010 7:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Ah... I did miss that.
Drew actually has been fairly durable as a Red Sox though.
& as for being overpaid, he’s been more than worth his contract… though I do wonder if he could have been signed for less.
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Nice argument...
take away the stat that actually tells you something about his value and focus on the meaningless counting stats. Awesome.
Meaningless?
I didn’t realize runs scored was a meaningless stat. Well, you learn something new everyday.
I don’t give a shit if the guy has a 1.200 OPS if he can’t produce runs. Runs scored might be an antiquated stat to you but that’s how you win the game, by outscoring the other team. By the way, that plus defense he plays? It plays real well from the bench or in the clubhouse. Same as the bat.
Same guy, new name.
by stillredsoxfan on Jul 16, 2010 9:04 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes, Runs Scored is a meaningless stats for an individual player
It is based almost entirely on other the player’s teammates. It’s not quite as useless as RBI, but it’s pretty terrible.
I don’t like OPS either; JD Drew has a career .385 wOBA. I doubt he gets into the HOF (and really, does anyone care about that distinction anymore, it’s mostly political), but he certainly has a case.
Yes, wOBA is better than OPS...
but the difference in value is something like 4-5 runs over a full season at the most extreme end (as in, high OBP guy v. high slugging guy). wOBA is a more precise tool, but since the conversation had been focusing on OPS I chose not to have the argument here. OPS gets you 90% of the way there.
And yes, runs scored is meaningless. As are the other counting stats stillredsoxfan listed.
So What Then?
My problem with going by WAR is how much of a boost Drew gets defensively. Now, I’m not trying to argue that he’s not an above average RF.
But the thing is looking at the career leaderboards at Fangraphs, if you filter it by fielding he’s #36 all-time with 78.9 runs.
That seems like an awful lot to me. I know he’s a good defender but an all-time great OF? Like one of the best ever? That sounds like something that would be highlighted a little brighter on his resume. It just seems like there is something off with that number.
Same guy, new name.
by stillredsoxfan on Jul 16, 2010 8:39 PM EDT up reply actions
He's #36...
since 2002. Big difference between that and best ever. There was no UZR before 2002.
Oh wow...
just looked again and saw that Fangraphs is assigning everyone defensive values.
I have no idea what the numbers for guys pre-2002 are based on. Until/unless I know more, I wouldn’t place much stock in those rankings. And you’re right, J.D. Drew as #36 overall defender relative to his position all time seems a bit extreme (though he’s quite good).
I think its totalzone, yes.
They did a series of articles when they introduced historical WAR values.
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Seems right to me.
He’s a fantastic player. I don’t know why people don’t realize this.
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Drew
was a fair CF in his early 20s (he might have stuck there but STL had this guy…Edmonds?) and has always been a strong RF. Why the hagiography on the defense? The guy has been somewhat fragile but it’s like everyone forgot he was a toolbox as a prospect.
by blackoutyears on Jul 16, 2010 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Exactly.
He was as good a prospect as anyone in recent memory. The predraft hype was huge (both times). Like almost ARod good. He’s excellent in all aspects of the game and has been for a long time. I would wager he could still play an above average CF, in fact… & I’ve watched him a lot.
I’ll say it again… he’s really a fantastic ballplayer. I don’t understand what people have a problem with. Plus defensive OFer with a career line of .283/.390/.503. He’d be the best player on over half the teams in baseball right now. Probably the most underrated player in the game the last decade. The Red Sox FO was soooo excited to land this guy. They were glowing.
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how dare you question
hammerin’ hank!!?
by son.of.sourman on Jul 16, 2010 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions
-1
I’ve had him for a year and while I never like to see any of my prospects get hurt, I’d much rather have this happen now than after he’s been drafted. Also, I am much less concerned that this injury will derail his potential to be an awesome middle of the lineup power bat as opposed to if one of my similarly aged pitching arms had a major shoulder or elbow injury.
Fat man is no more,
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Come on in, says Bill
Give him a year...
if he keeps hitting next Spring there’s no reason not to draft him high. The first injury to the ankle was so “devastating” that 6 months later he started the collegiate season on time and hit .394/.530/.801 with more home runs than strikeouts.
Let me repeat that again: more home runs than strikeouts.
Even with uncertain health Rendon is the best college hitter perhaps since Mark Teixiera. Especially if he comes back next college season raking once more, the team with the #1 pick should probably take that risk.

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