Trade Rumor Thread
by ADLC on Jul 13, 2010 5:50 PM EDT
Email
Print
Apologies if I'm starting this too soon for some folks, but trade rumors seem to be picking up with less then 20 days to the deadline. I figured it would be a good time to throw up a central gathering point for those rumors, or just an open discussion of the proposals.
Ideally this gets rec'd so we can follow the rumors/deals in one place rather then have 100 threads for different players.
Here are some players I expect to get moved (or be shopped) before the deadline:
Ty Wiggington
Carlos Zambrano (if he has any demand)
Christian Guzman
125 comments
|
6 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I fully expect to see the Rays go after a bat
whether it be Luke Scott, David Dejesus, Corey, Hart, Prince Fielder, Cody Ross, Dan Uggla, Adam Dunn, Josh Willingham, or some name that hasn’t even popped up yet. I would be absolutely shocked to see either Hellickson or Jennings in a deal but wouldn’t be suprised to see Wade Davis, Matt Moore, Alex Colome, or any of their other young pitchers go.
Ah, you missed the great debate...
…of could a Carlos Zambrano for Ollie Perez deal be swung? FWIW, I don’t see Cristian Guzman going anywhere. Dunn’s more likely to move, and I hope Capps is most likely of all. Unsustainable production to this point, and I hope he swindles some people with a one-two-three inning tonight.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
Dunn & Nats
purportedley talking about a long term deal.
The Nats are looking to improve and not just wantonly dump payroll.
Fat man is no more,
Bursting on through Heaven's Door
Come on in, says Bill
Is this new? Link?
They’ve been talking about an extension since the offseason. Last I heard, Dunn was starting to get a bit frustrated about the lack of an extension while his name is perpetually in trade rumors and he’s getting asked about being traded all the time.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
Saw it on cbssportsline.com
Fat man is no more,
Bursting on through Heaven's Door
Come on in, says Bill
I dont see why bell would be traded
Join the Lacrosse community at http://www.theprolaxblog.blogspot.com/
Talk about Boston sports at http://www.bestbostonsports.com/
"That place was for diehard sports fans. I only follow my team when they're in the playoffs" - Homer Simpson
by bestbostonsports on Jul 13, 2010 6:12 PM EDT reply actions
I could get into this. Starting with Prince Fielder.
I’ll just pick 3 possible destinations:
LA Angels – They’ve picked up Teixeira before. Of course the difference here is that they would end up with Fielder and Morales contracted for next season. I’ve had worse problems. But the need is definitely there. We all know that an offer of Mike Trout would seal the deal immediately. But the Angels aren’t going to do that. How about Hank Conger and Trevor Reckling?
Colorado – 2 games back and Helton is finished. Fielder would be ridiculous in Coors. Rockies have a little bit of pitching to spare, that’s what the Brewers should want. They could outdo Conger/Reckling if they wanted to start with Matzek, but I’m sure they’d rather avoid that. How about Friedrich and pieces?
Tampa Bay – I can’t see that I see TB doing this (even if they should) The fact of the matter is that they could lock down a deal for Fielder yesterday if they wanted to. Yes, Pena leads the team in home runs and blah blah blah – he’s hitting .203. He’s also a free agent, so Fielder gives you an immediate star at 1st base for the rest of this year and next. Fielder/Longoria in the middle of the order is scary. They also have an embarressment of riches. How about Wade Davis and Alex Torres with a hitter thrown in there?
The problem the Brewers face with Fielder that the M’s didn’t face with Lee, is that you can’t tell me a viable fourth team in the market for Fielder. The M’s had a bunch of teams to the point that it drove the price to Montero or Smoak. Fielder may be more than a rental and could provide a great boost to any team he’s dealt to. But Tampa Bay wouldn’t feel as pressured to give up a top prospect when they know their only competition is Colorado and LA. And the truth is, none of these three teams may be all that interested. If it turns out that the Rockies are the only team calling on Fielder, then he might not get dealt at all.
If I had to guess: Fielder stays.
Rangers?
Somehow, I don’t think the Rangers traded a bunch of prospects and their starting 1B for Cliff Lee just to see Chris Davis derail their chances. I’m going to guess that they wait it out until the deadline to see if Davis will do, and if not they move towards a trade.
If not Fielder, then I have to believe they’ll make a move for a 1B somehow.
Sure between now and July 31st a number of teams could jump in if they get a Kendry Morales situation on their hands.
I think the Rangers will have to see a real collapse from Davis over the next 3 weeks, but who knows. They’ve got the prospects.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jul 13, 2010 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Berkman seems a better fit for Rangers
They won’t want to give up the haul it’ll take to get Fielder after trading for Lee, I’m guessing. Depends on whether the Astros would pay the rest of Berkman’s contract, and what they’d want in return, though.
Plus the market is 2
People who want Fielder would want Dunn as well. With Lee, there was only Lee.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
I'd say Fielder is almost like the "Dan Haren" of this situation.
Talented, some more team control, a bit of a down year – the Brewers asking price will be for 2007-2009 Fielder, the offers will be for 2010 Fielder. Still a great, great player, but if the Brewers are asking for Jeremy Hellickson they should know why they’re getting hung up on.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jul 13, 2010 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions
IDK
If the Brewers said here’s Prince Fielder and $3 MM, for Hellickson, I’m pretty sure they wouldn’t be hung up on.
"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra
+1
hung up on is ridiculous
Who loves orange soda?
by Kenan and Kel on Jul 13, 2010 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Fielder to the Rays
Will not get done from a Milwaukee standpoint without either Hellickson or Jennings. 1-1/2 years of an elite Ryan Howard like slugger ain’t going to get done for Wade Davis. Montero & Smoak certainly do not take a back seat in terms of prospect value vis-a-vis Hellickson/Jennings and they were offered up for ~ 3-1/2 months of Cliff Lee.
Corey Hart for Wade Davis + 2 prospects could get done.
Fat man is no more,
Bursting on through Heaven's Door
Come on in, says Bill
+1
Milwaukee wouldn’t take less than Hellickson, McGee and Colome. Or something similar. I’m not saying it’s fair or that the Rays would do it, but that’s what it would take from a MKE standpoint.
"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra
Neither Hellickson nor Jennings was ever offered for Lee
That was what the Mariners wanted for Lee from the Rays; the Rays didn’t assent.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
I don't think he was saying Hellickson or Jennings were offered for Lee
"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra
And I think you're overvaluing Hart
I’m not confident the Rays would do Hart for Davis straight up. Best I can tell, Hart is an average player who’s gotten lucky for half a season.
I could maybe see a Hellickson + prospects trade for Fielder + cash. But the Brewers would probably need to kick in significant cash. I don’t see the Rays under any circumstances trading Jennings. He’s the inexpensive replacement for Carl Crawford the next six years.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
Kerm
is right on, no way the brewers trade Fielder for anything less than Hellickson, McGee and maybe another prospect arm…if the crew kick in the cash it it would be a loss of arms that the Rays could handle. The main snag I see is that Prince is likely to command at least 16-17MM next year and would be virtually unsignable to the Rays in the future. That is a lot for a team like TB to pay for a 1yr 2month rental…
I have said BOS and SF all along for Prince, and still maintain those are the two most likely to pull any kind of deal off. They both have the pitching MKE desperately needs and can also afford Prince for the future.
Hart is clearly the more likely of the two to go this July…several teams will pay enough of a premium to obtain his services, personally I see ATL as the team that will step up and nab him.
I just have a hard time seeing Prince as a fit in Boston
Yeah, he’s a great hitter… he’s going to command a Boras megadeal AND you have to give up top prospects for him? Pass.
The Red Sox currently lead the majors in runs despite their entire team being on the DL for a good part of the season. How motivated can they be to give up top prospects for the rights to negotiate a huge, long term Boras megacontract (Tex money probably) with a 26 year old, 300 pound DH?
That is just not the way Theo has ever operated. He’s a hell of a hitter… and I think they would have some interest in free agency… but this isn’t the type of player the Red Sox typically target.
He’s posted a couple 50 run season with the bat… but he’s more likely in the 3-4 win range. He brings virtually nothing else to the table… not a great idea to give a guy like that >$20mm a year for ~8 years. Hell, they wouldn’t give Tex that money in free agency (though IMO he was always going to NY despite the media reports with Boston in the lead)- and Tex is a better hitter, a much better fielder and baserunner and (until this year) more consistent. Why would they dramatically change course and give up Casey Kelly & Kalish simply for the right to give a lesser player in Prince a deal like that?
The only thing I can think of is that it is becoming harder to acquire elite players. The best bats and pitchers aren’t reaching free agency as often… and when they do the Yankees are usually all over them. So, scarcity of resources-wise, I can see the rationale behind going after him. Still… Theo would never empty the farm and hand out a ginormous deal to Prince. That would be shockingly out of character for the Red Sox F.O..
Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor
by alskor on Jul 14, 2010 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Its pretty debatable that Fielder is the better hitter
and having a premium hitter is valuable. Boston was willing to pay around 20 million it would seem and it may be irrelevant as they can have Fielder for 2 playoff runs.
BoSox?
You don’t think Boston will make a run at Fielder if he’s available? They also would seem to have the prospects to swing such a deal. Of the 3 teams that you mention (Angels, Rockies, and TB), only the Angels have the money to be able to sign Fielder to a long-term deal before the end of next year like Boston could.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
+1
I was wondering if anybody was going to mention this. With all of the injuries, the Sox can use him for assurance for the rest of this year. Next year, Youk moves back to 3B and Fielder is at 1B. I would love for this to happen, but I don’t see it happening. We (Sox) will resign Beltre to a 3-year deal in the offseason. I think he likes the Monstah!
Where is this coming from?
And why would the Braves do this? Are they down on Glaus?
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
From Buster Olney.
Dunn is getting impatient that the Nats aren’t working more urgently on a new deal. Supposedly would be dealt if new deal isn’t in place soon. White Sox rumored.
And after reading closer, the Dunn for Mike Minor was pure speculation (frustrating to find out that it was pure speculation) but the stuff above is from Olney.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jul 13, 2010 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Yep, that's what I heard.
Rizzo is a stubborn dude, though. He’s not going to lower his price for Dunn in the trade market because Dunn is moaning and groaning in the press. He’ll believe that he may be able to resign Dunn after the deadline or he’ll take the picks. Ultimately, it’s about dollars and the Nats can take on the payroll to offer a competitive deal for Dunn later. Right now, Dunn’s side may think he’s in the Ryan Howard price bracket. They may change their tune if they find out that he’s not going to command that kind of salary. Leading the NL in HR while providing better than expected but below average defense can only increase his market value and it’s getting close to the point where he probably wants to test free agency regardless. The hometown discount appears to be off the table.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
Gammons mentioned a Minor for Hart swap last week.
Not sure it was speculation or if he had a source.
"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra
no way this would happen
Hart is playing so far over his head right now. Minor is too much for him.
eh
I’ll agree Hart is playing over his head, but once his numbers level off, he’s still a pretty valuable player for a year and a half. He’s definitely worth a AA pitcher with a #3 ceiling imo. Although, admittedly, I’m not a big Mike Minor fan, so this seems really reasonable to me.
"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra
Good list
However, I respectfully have to say that there’s no way in hell that Heath Bell and Jayson Werth get shopped before the deadline. Unless your definition of shopping goes something like this: “Sure Mr. Rizzo, I’ll trade you Heath Bell and 3 prospects for Stephen Starsburg.”
Seriously though, the Pads are in 1st place, so there’s no way they trade their closer before July 31st, even if they go into a prolonged tailspin right after the AS break. Their new GM is not going to want to burn bridges with his fan base.
For similar reasons, and because of all the injuries the Phillies have, they’re not going to trade Werth before the deadline. Now if they find themselves at least 8 games behind and in 4th place in the middle of August they will likely try to get Werth through waivers and get something good in return for him.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Bell
was a brain fart, I was looking at my preseason list and missed removing him. As to Werth, there has been a LOT of talk that he has soured relationships in the locker room and that they may shop him. I could see them moving him and replacing him with some combination of a Luke Scott type and Brown. The deal would have to get them a decent starter though.
Just spitballing ...
This isn’t any kind of rumor. Just something I was thinking as an intriguing type of deal that might spur some discussion. What are people’s thoughts on a theoretical trade between the Tigers and D-Backs … Rick Porcello for Dan Haren.
What about SS?
The Cardinals need something in the middle infield, and especially SS. I guess Tyler Greene has a chance to be at least decent, but his fielding has been pretty bad so far in the bigs and his hitting is still just as inconsistent.
Alex Gonzalez maybe?
What about Renteria? He’s already played for LaRuss and the Cards, and I don’t think there’s any bad blood there. He should come cheap, but probably won’t be available unless the Giants go on another losing streak.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Renteria is a meh option. His only value right now is batting average, and it’s driven by a massive BABIP. He’s only average in the field and has no power left to speak of. I would think it’d be better to go with a guy like Brenden Ryan, who at least has upside in his glove, and who can produce about the same batting line if the BABIPs normalize, or Tyler Greene.
As for the bad blood, I’m not sure how the front office or La Russa feels but some fans are probably still stung a bit. Renteria took $1 million more total to defect to the Red Sox after we got swept by them in the world series. Not $1 million more per year, $1 million total in his long-term contract.
Alex Gonzalez and his sub-.300 OBP are not that enticing, especially with a black hole like Molina already in the lineup, but with a groundball staff for sure plus defense is something that’s needed. There really isn’t much out there at SS… 2B either, for that matter, another spot the Cardinals could conceivably improve.
Gonzalez
He’s the only pending FA that would be much of an improvement and likely to be moved. His average is nothing to write home about and his power numbers are completely out of whack with his career.
Izturis could make a nice defensive replacement, and the Orioles will probably shop Lugo too, but neither is a big upgrade over Ryan.
We already had Izturis a few years back and we gave away Lugo at the start of the season. Neither of those guys are going to be much of an upgrade over a guy like Ryan.
The only guys out there I could think of are like Stephen Drew and maybe Yunel Escobar, but it seems unlikely that either of them get traded.
Targeting a guy like Uggla may make more sense, but the Felipe Lopez can be an upgrade over Schumaker at 2B while his defense at SS leaves something to be desired.
SS
I did a piece on MI targets for the Cards at Cards Clubhouse. The MI guys that make the most sense when considering asking price, fit, salary situation, etc are as follows:
1) A. Gonzalez – I am a bit leery of him as he is having a a very uncharacteristically good season for him…I would expect a sizable step back in the 2nd half. But an upgrade over Ryan for sure.
2) S. Drew – Probably the best fit but not sure what the asking price would be.
3) A. Ramirez – The ChiSox don’t appear to be sellers but if they somehow become sellers in the next week and a half Ramirez is a STL type of player due to his player flexibility (we know TLR loves this).
4) Y. Escobar – We have been linked to him before and he is historically a better 2nd half player. He’s young and under teams control thru 2013
5) Bartlett/S. Rodriguez/Brignac – The Rays have a great problem with these 3 guys and Zobrist that can play MI positions. Not sure which is the most obtainable but all would most likely be an upgrade
6) K. Johnson – He is having a great season and we have been linked to him back in his ATL days.
7) Uggla – Probably cost a nice package but would be a big offensive upgrade
There are others but these are the ones that make the most sense IMO
I'd add
most of the Cubs roster. Lilly is a sure thing to go IMO. ARam, Fukudome, Gorzelanny, Nady and prob most any vet on that team is fair game right now.
Should be an interesting trade deadline for the Blue Jays, Jose Bautista, Scott Downs, John Buck and Alex Gonzalez are either at or near the top for their respective positions in terms of guys rumored to be available. Not to mention Jason Frasor, Kevin Gregg, Edwin Encarnacion and Lyle Overbay should also be available.
Most of those guys are signed on the cheap as well, the Jays shouldn’t have to eat cash on trades for Buck, Gonzalez, Downs, Bautista or Gregg.
Flip side of that
Because they’re signed to reasonable deals the Jays could eat the salary if it improves the return at all.
http://bullpenbanter.com
So what would Dejesus be worth?
25-50 prospect and maybe another top 150?
Man, I don't know about that.
He’s got some value over contract, clearly, but he’s also not an elite player. When his batting average regresses his wOBA will too, and I think GMs understand that he’s not likely to continue performing at this level.
If he were viewed as an elite player (middle of the order bat, top of the rotation arm) it might be different because there is a surcharge attached in order to acquire those kinds of guys. But as just an above average regular, I don’t think I’d give up that much for him.
I imagine it would have to be a good deal less than that or the Sox wouldn't be interested.
I’ve been advocating a Sox trade for Dejesus since May… he’s a great fit, but as Orem said, he doesn’t provide all that much value over his cost (especially next year)… and while he’s a solid player, no part of his game is of the real impact variety. He also gets more expensive next year and will be 31 in December. Plus he doesn’t have a long term clear role in Boston once everyone is healthy.
I really like him, though… can play all three OF spots, good approach, good glove, good baserunner. I have serious reservations about whether Cameron or Ellsbury will ever be fully healthy this season… or maybe even next spring… so he’s perfect to have around and you work in the other guys around him as health permits. Also cheap enough to swing someplace else in the offseason if you decide to pursue an OF or the other guys look healthy. A very nice fit for Boston and I feel his game would play up in Fenway pretty well.
Still… there are lots of guys around who could be acquired cheaply who can do 75% of what Dejesus does… so how much are you really gonna pay? They won’t give up a top 100 prospect when they can go grab a guy like Austin Kearns who could be had much cheaper (presumably). I’d really like to see them get Dejesus though… I could see them giving up a Tejeda/Middlebrooks/Exposito/Lin kind of player or two and somebody else interesting… and that’s not a terrible return at all. We shall see… wouldn’t be shocked if I was wrong… but it won’t be Kelly, Kalish or Iglesias… and the other guys around that range (Lars/Rizzo/Reddick) aren’t exactly killing it.
Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor
Even if they may be the appropriate trade value...
it’s hard to reconcile losing talent at areas of need (CF/C/3B) for a guy who’d be eminently replaceable next year with Ryan Kalish. At least not without a more detailed plan to address those needs. So Boston’s second tier prospects kinda matter right now whereas DeJesus is more of a luxury. Hell, even the middling pitching prospects in AA matter with the lack of pitching depth in the upper minors.
If you can lowball Moore with lower level guys and wait for him to blink at the deadline, do it. Otherwise I wouldn’t be trying to hard to pick up DeJesus.
Uggla
My Dynasty fantasy team prays that Uggla gets traded to the Rockies. I could use a 40 HR second baseman :-)
rays
but don’t the Rays have infielders coming outta their ears?
by Rupert Pupkin on Jul 14, 2010 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Eh...
they can get a guy who can hit like Uggla (so the same value as a DH) a lot cheaper than it would cost to get Uggla.
Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor
Corey Hart asking price
From Henry Schulman on Twitter.
Heard this: Giants and Brewers talked turkey on Hart, and Milwaukee asked for Sanchez or Bumgarner. Sabean is not eager to trade either.
"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra
Hart
If Milwaukee is asking for that much for Hart, my money is on him staying right where he is.
Agreed
Might as well ask for a lot though, and see if someone bites. It seems there’s at least 4 teams legitimately interested in him, which helps quite a bit.
"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra
Hart
Like most negotiations you ask for guys higher than you expect to get to start the conversation. If you are extremely motivated to deal a player you may not take that strategy but I don’t think that is the case in Milwaukee. The problem in SF is now that they have graduated some talent (Posey, Bumgarner specifically) their system only has 1 true blue chipper left in Wheeler. The way Hart is playing and the fact he is Arb Eligible in 2011 his value might be that of a Sanchez type player…but I certainly don’t see Bumgarner going anywhere.
Alex Gonzalez for Yunel Escobar
According to MLBTR
The Blue Jays acquired shortstop Yunel Escobar and pitcher Jo-Jo Reyes from the Braves for shortstop Alex Gonzalez and minor leaguers Tim Collins and Tyler Pastronicky, according to a team press release.
"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day."
-Frank Sinatra
ESPN has it too
I guess they are expecting AG to at least stay decent and not revert. I’m not sold on that, but its not a bad deal if they think they have a window.
ESPN
Is reporting that Escobar has caused some friction with teammates and they weren’t happy with his ’tude, FWIW.
This isn't new w/r/t Escobar....
However, I think the Braves are being a little too shortsighted in this deal.
Escobar, for all his struggles this year, was a 5 win player before this year. And, Gonzales, despite his inflated numbers this year, still doesn’t get on base at even a .300 clip.
Don’t like this on behalf of the Braves, unless the 20-yr old from Double A can continue throwing 15K/9IP numbers up as he moves forward…..not likely though.
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Jul 14, 2010 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I wouldn't touch him.
He’s radioactive IMO. As is Howard. Completely immovable.
Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor
Agreed.
The Ibanez deal made my head hurt at the time. Who the hell thought that paying Raul Ibanez $11M when he’s 38 would be a good idea?
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jul 15, 2010 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions
It worked for half-a-season. Per fangraphs he was "worth" 17.3 million last season.
He’s worth -1.2 million this season. 16.1 million in total value and they’ve paid him ~17 million. So yeah, now is when it starts to get ugly.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jul 16, 2010 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I mean, to be fair, 2009 was Ibanez's career year in terms of WAR
Thanks to uncharacteristically good power and defensive marks.
But realistically, the first year of the deal was never the problem.
It was giving a three-year commitment at more than $10M per to a 36-year-old left fielder with awful defensive metrics and a roughly +10 to +15 RAA bat.
He’d been a very solid player for a while, but from day 1 I had a tough time believing that Ibanez would end up being worth even close to $11M by 2012.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jul 16, 2010 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions
and we all know fangraphs money value-system is spot-on
right ladies?
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
do you have anything concrete to show that it is not an accurate reflection of $/WAR?
I see a lot of people make this type of statement, but I never see anybody write up something that shows that Fangraphs’ valuations are incorrect.
The fact that defensive stats fluctuate massively from year to year suggests that it might not be the best idea to base a large portion of a value stat on one year’s worth of one defensive stat.
It's useful, but it's probably best not to take it too literally
Beyond the question marks surrounding how they calculate WAR (mainly problems and inconsistencies with UZR, as well as the designation of what exactly replacement level is), you really have to factor in the circumstances of the situation with any FA signing beyond simply dollars and production, at least if you’re trying to analyze the deal.
FanGraphs’ valuations aren’t necessarily incorrect, but I can promise you that there are lots of people out there (very smart people, I might add) who would argue that it could be done better/differently.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jul 17, 2010 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions
I've yet to see it
I’m not even arguing that WAR and the associated dollar figures are “correct”. I just get tired of seeing people throw shit fits about how THERE’S NO WAY THAT CHONE FIGGINS IS WORTH $27 MILLION DOLLARS FANGRAPHS IS RETARDED without offering any evidence.
I think there are just right and wrong ways to use FanGraphs' dollar valuations
I think that the figures themselves are mostly accurate, and that Figgins was indeed worth near $27M last season.
But that doesn’t have any predictive value, and it certainly doesn’t mean that Figgins deserves anywhere near that kind of money when you factor in regression and risk and all of those additional factors. Just because Figgins was worth $27M in 2009 doesn’t mean that he’ll ever be worth that again.
It’s good for retrospective stuff, but on its own it offers little to no predictive value.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jul 17, 2010 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s good for retrospective stuff, but on its own it offers little to no predictive value.
Extremely well put
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
Personally, I will never believe in a value stat until we can get several years worth of the new hitf/x data and base the stat on that. The only way to get a true value is to plot where every ball in play is hit, determine the league averages for similar balls in play, and see how much better or worse than average a player is both at the plate and in the field based on that data. The value stats we currently have pave over all of the data with that are shown to correlate to future production, but don’t, to my satisfaction, capture the entirety of what happened in the past.
I'm more excited for how the new cameras will affect defensive metrics
I think that offense is covered fairly well with linear weights, and most of the problems with FanGraphs WAR are related to evaluating base-running and defense.
FanGraphs doesn’t include a base-running statistic like eqBRR, it only includes the SB/CS data factored into wOBA. Additionally, UZR is still quite flawed, and they’re mostly the kind of flaws that could only be fixed with exact data of the batted ball’s trajectory as well as the placement of the fielders and their routes.
Defensive metrics could take some huge steps forward with improvements in technology, and that’ll help the accuracy of WAR a great deal.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jul 18, 2010 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Youkilis
Please, no more Red Sox trades with Youkilis moving to third now or in the future. That ship has sailed. Even if they do not re-sign Beltre. Theo has an outfield to put back together and a bullpen to blow up.
Hypothetical trade ...
Totally far-fetched trade proposal here, but I was pondering it earlier today and thought it might be fun to include in this thread. OK, here goes….
You are the Seattle Mariners. The Giants have made the following trade proposal: Ichiro Suzuki in exchange for five players — Jonathan Sanchez, Nate Schierholtz, Thomas Neal, and two other prospects. Two scenarios here: A) You are willing to make the deal. In this case, What two prospects would you want? B) You are not willing to make the deal. In this case, only respond if you absolutely have to.
Like I said, totally hypothical and far-fetched. But sometimes that’s what trade rumors are for.
Are you kidding? I'd consider Sanchez straight up for Ichiro
36 year old OF with unimpressive secondary skills and making $17mm through 2012?
He’s a good player (good hitter overall and good defender) but it wouldn’t take much for me to part with him. He doesn’t provide all that much value over how much he makes… and he’s gonna be 37 next year.
His value to the franchise off the field makes a deal unlikely… but if I was the M’s GM I’d be itching to move him.
Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor
Yup. And he has 10/5 no trade rights, too IIRC.
Plus Seattle is MLB’s “Japanese team” (owned by Nintento). Relatively short flight to Japan… icon in the city. Never gonna happen.
Just saying… if I’m GM of the M’s and I’m looking to improve my team I think I would keep coming back to the idea of trying to trade Ichiro before his skill erode.
Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor
I think we are underestimating Ichiro just a tad.
Full disclosure, I am in fact a Seattle Mariners fan and have watched Ichiro his entire career.
However, let’s consider the facts for a second:
-In Ichiro’s worst season, he posted a 3.2 WAR.
-He’s owed ~43 million through 2012.
-Over the last 3 full seasons, he has been worth 62.4 million per fangraphs.
-Currently, in his age 36 season, he’s been worth 11.9 million already.
-He’s posted 3 WAR this season, posting his best defensive numbers since 2006.
-This will most likely be the 6th season of his career he posts >5 WAR.
-Last season was the first season he posted <157 games, he played in 146.
-His work regimine, history, and skills suggest that he should maintain this level of production for two more seasons. Ichiro relies on his speed and his slap-hitting. This isn’t a power hitter who will eventually have to start cheating on fastballs, this is a guy who just makes contact, and he’s perhaps the best in history to do that. His speed isn’t getting worse, he’s got 22 SB.
-He’s 3 hits behind Prado for the hits lead. If he overtakes it, it will be his 5th straight season of leading the majors in hits.
-Also, $25 million of the contract is to be deferred. Part of the salary paid in interest, valuing his salary at about 16.1 million annually instead of 17 million. And yes, that makes a difference.
I would have to be really blown away by an argument that tried to convince me that Ichiro won’t be worth $32 million over the 2011-2012 seasons. Is he really showing signs of age? At ALL? You can’t give me a comp to Ichiro at age 36, because such a comp doesn’t exist? Unless maybe you want to talk about Bonds hitting 195 home runs after age 36. Except Ichiro doesn’t take any supplements except for maybe fish oil. He stays in perfect shape and continues to do what he does every day. So I have to judge Ichiro based on what Ichiro does. If a win is valued at 4 million dollars, which is what it basically is right now, then Ichiro needs to be worth 8 wins over the next 2 seasons. Not once in his career has Ichiro been worth <8 wins over a two year period. Not once. The lowest is 8.7 during 2005-2006.
Ichiro will almost certainly justify his contract. He’s currently worth 7.9 wins over the last season and a half up to today.
How about the suggested return? Over 139 games and 517 innings, Sanchez has been worth 7.1 wins. In the middle of his “breakout season” he’s worth 1.6 wins. Oh by the way, he’s posting the highest xFIP of his career since his rookie season at 4.30. And his FIP was actually lower in 2008 when he posted a 5.01 ERA. He was worth 2.8 wins that season. Zips rest of season has him at a 4.32 ERA. Now if he goes to Seattle, he will almost certainly throw up some better overall numbers in the bigger park, but he may also never improve that career 4.65 bb/9 number. He hasn’t improved it this season one bit. As far as his contract goes, he’s a free agent after 2012. Arbitration over the next two years will almost certainly give him big raises. Raises he probably doesn’t deserve. So if this is the centerpiece of your deal, a player that is under contract for the same number of years as Ichiro, while posting 2-3 win seasons for perhaps 8 million a season (I’m guessing the arb figures, that can’t be too far off) then I would most definitely take Ichiro.
As for Schierholtz, well, I just don’t really see the upside of a career .309 wOBA. He’d be like the 5th best outfielder in my organization that’s not already with the club. 4th outfielder depth I have plenty of.
Thomas Neal I admit I know very little about. It appears he is missing the Cal League, as most minor leaguers do. Power just isn’t as easy to come by when you graduate from there and I am not sure if he will be a top 100 prospect again next season.
It’s already been mentioned what Ichiro means to this organization, the fans, and all that. So I won’t go into too much detail about that. Other than Ichiro is also such a revenue stream to the Japanese market that he’s worth his weight in gold. It would be an enormous mistake to get rid of him, alienate the fans, and to do it without getting an elite prospect in return?
I’m sorry, I can’t see any good GM ever doing this.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jul 16, 2010 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions
So, you might consider Bumgarner for Ichiro? In which case, it would pretty much be Bumgarner and a middle-tier prospect for Ichiro straight up … maybe Thomas Neal if you throw in some money, like the amount of Bumgarner’s original signing bonus plus the cost of a league-average 5-starter for the next five years.
Alright. Good luck with Jason Vargas as your 2-starter. Unless … Are you picking up Ian Snell’s contract option?
So I can have Doug Fister, his 4.39 xFIP, 3.71 FIP and his cheaper, longer contract and Ichiro.
Or Jonathan Sanchez, his larger contract that expires in two years, and his 4.30 xFIP and 3.89 FIP with Schierholtz?
Or Vargas and his 3.63 FIP?
God, that offer is just so tantalizing. Is my sarcasm coming through? If not. I’m being sarcastic.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jul 16, 2010 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions
you also have Masta MP
who I see teaming up with King Felix for one of the better 1-2 punches in all of baseball within 2 years
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
Well, I will interject some sincerity then. Vargas is likely having a career year. Sanchez is still coming into his own. Looking at age, contracts, and past performance is all well and good. But, at the end of the day, I don’t know anyone who would consider Jason Vargas to be anywhere near the caliber of arm as Jonathan Sanchez.
Man.. you really aren't buying their FIP's right?
Vargas is an extreme fly ball pitcher living on a tightrope of decent command and mediocre bat-missing ability, he’s much closer to being the guy with a 4.84 xFIP.
Fister is the same kind of pitcher but at least he’s got a tendency to induce grounders; he’s better than Vargas but it’s not a good thing if he’s anything more than a back-of-the-rotation guy.
Sanchez is already better than both of those guys, and with a small step forward in command he could be miles better than both of them.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jul 17, 2010 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
This is starting to feel like the "Would the Mariners take Jayson Werth for Cliff Lee" talk all over again.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jul 16, 2010 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, the idea is … the Mariners aren’t going anywhere without pitching depth. They know this. They’ve pursued Erik Bedard and Cliff Lee in recent years as part of a win-now approach, and have crapped out.
I see the Ichiro issue as a debate of show vs. go. They have a safe investment in Ichiro, and will profit as an organization with him finishing his career is Seattle. However, there’s an opportunity with a player of Ichiro’s caliber to produce the depth that Seattle so desperately needs within its system. In essence, if the Mariners trade Ichiro, they are committing to being competative three years sooner. Otherwise, it’s going to take that much time to produce any kind of real depth … especially in the pitching department, where they have no blue-chip arms past Felix Hernandez.
I have no problem with a team committing to a superstar player, to longterm statistical plateaus, and to the history of the franchise. In many cases, this is better baseball than trading vets for the sake of rebuilding. When the Giants did this with Barry Bonds, I was all for it. It’s a monumental decision which must be made though.
I mean this topic only as a fair gesture. There is virtually no way the Mariners part wiht Ichiro … even if they could. However, fans of the Mariners should be given a fairer shake than having the wool pulled over their eyes that a team like the Mariners had going into the 2010 season stood even a remote chance of competing. In all likelihood, it will be a similar situation come next season. Not to mention, maybe Ichiro Suzuki wants the chance to play for a team built to make a run at a World Series crown.
Buster Posey. Straight up. No cash involved.
by Kenneth Arthur on Jul 16, 2010 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions
If I'm the M's I would take that in two seconds.
Then redeploy Ichiro’s $18mm on even more hitting. WAY better off.
Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor
Seriously.
Ichiro for Posey would be enough to fire Sabean soon, I’m thinking.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jul 18, 2010 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
How many times have we said this, though?
This Edgar Renteria deal…
This Barry Zito deal…
Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor
The M's ownership would never let Ichiro get dealt, and Ichiro's got a NTC anyways
But frankly, I’d jump all over that deal if I was Jack Z.
Shedding Ichiro’s salary while getting Sanchez, Schierholtz, Neal and prospects in return would be a really lopsided trade in Seattle’s favor.
As was said above, Seattle would probably consider trading Ichiro straight up for Sanchez if he didn’t hold such a lofty place within the organization.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jul 16, 2010 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Ichiro
One thing that sometimes is overlooked with Ichiro is how much revenue he brings to the M’s due to all the oversees interest. It was the same argument with Matsui not resigning with the Yanks…but the Yanks can stand tall losing a player like that. Can the M’s do the same? Let’s say hypothetically they would consider dealing Ichiro. Ichiro is extremely underrated since he isn’t a power hitter IMO. He can fly, he plays phenomenal defense and has a rocket of an arm. At the plate he gives you .315-.355 avg every year, hits plenty of extra base hits and steals 25+ bases. He also gives you 650+ AB’s a year and plays everyday. What more do you want from a guy? The only thing he doesn’t give you is HR’s. If I trade him I am expecting at least 1 blue chip prospects + a 2 mid-tier prospect. So if we are talking about the Giants I would expect Bumgarner, Neal and maybe Tommy Joseph. That is a massive haul but that is the value I feel Ichiro gives an organization. So to say Ichiro is probably not going anywhere is an understatement as no team is going to give that kind of haul IMO.
Twins fans
If Oswalt would waive no trade clause to Minny would you give Plouffe, Bromberg and Oswaldo Arcia if Houston did not add $$$ to the deal?
No.
Oswalt is good, but it’s not worth giving up three players in order to pay him $25M through 2011.
Honestly, I don’t think that Oswalt gets dealt. Brett Myers is probably the more realistic target on the Astros.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jul 16, 2010 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Twins
The Twins probably couldn’t take on that type of salary even though a few decent sized contracts are coming off the books. They still have to replace those guys with someone. Astros would need to pickup about half of the salary for the Twins to realistically be involved IMO.
That offer is not remotely close to enough.
Even without adding salary to the deal, there is no way the Astros take back a handful of grade C prospects for Oswalt. No. 1 starters are hard to come by, and they are going to demand at least one top 50 prospect, and rightly so.
They won’t move him this season if those are the kinds of offers they are getting.
Why are we debating Ichiro being traded? Even if Bumgarner were a fair return for him, he’s never going to be moved. What’s next, Jordan Lyles for Jeter?
Ben Sheets?
Does he have value that a team in contention would want? What would be a fair return for him?
WTF GEREN?!?!?!
Given his salary I'm not sure a team could get that much
He’s pitched much better in his last 13 starts, though: 3.72 ERA, 66/25 K/BB in 82 innings.
I think he’s pitching well enough that the A’s probably won’t have to eat much or any salary to move him, but the plan of getting talent back as well probably isn’t going to work out.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jul 18, 2010 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, that's probably more likely given how the Lee and Molina deals went down
Not to mention that the Escobar/Gonzalez deal was clearly about money on some level as well, as Atlanta clearly liked Gonzalez’s price through 2011.
I could probably see a Sheets and cash for a B-prospect kind of deal. Not sure why people would so greatly prefer Ted Lilly to Sheets or Brett Myers, to be honest.
I like baseball.
I write for Beyond the Box Score and The Hardball Times Fantasy
by Satchel Price on Jul 18, 2010 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Sheets
To me even if they eat salary they get a very solid mid-tier prospect. No Top 50 guys IMO. If they don’t eat some salary they get a low minors with potential upside type of guy or a high floor mid-level minors prospect. I feel he could be the type of SP that helps teams that are needing a mid-tier rotation guy like my Cards.
Fielder for Cain!
/McCovey Chronicles Meme
"Even the Swedes are getting mad."-Randy Hahn
"It's very cozy in the sin bin."-Randy Hahn
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
