Freddie Freeman
by tt68 on Jul 10, 2010 8:48 PM EDT
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I have been trying to figure out exactly what I think about Freeman. He is so young to be in AAA that it is hard to know what to make of his stats. Here is his line for the year.
.287/.346/.483 with 10 HR 25BB and 48K's in 286 AB's - Clearly those are solid number for a 20 year old hitting in AAA. He has excellent size at 6'5" 225 and I believe he is said to be a very good defensive first baseman. I was thinking about comps for him and the best I could come up with at a similar age is Justin Morneau.
In 2002 at AA (he turned 21 in the middle of that season so a similar age as Freeman who turns 21 in September) Morneau put up this line - .297/.356/.474 with 16HR, 42BB 80K's in 494 AB's. He is 6'4" 234 now (not sure what he was then).
It seems Morneau is a very good comparable at the same age for Freeman. And I would say that a Morneau type of career is his upside. What are everyone's thoughts on his floor? Is he a Casey Kotchman type who never develops the big time power, or is a .200 ISOP at 20 an indicator of big time future power to come?
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I've never though of Mourneo
but it would be sooo awesome if that is what Freedie became…
But i see him more of Kotchman or Loney with good contact, decent power, great defense
OJ didn't do it
Ive thought of Morneau quite a bit
LaRoche as well. He has great raw power, nothing like Kotchman. But he is still trying to translate all of that power into games. Very encouraging season thus far. He was hurt last year.
let's wait and see
Freeman has shown significant progress this year. He only hit 8 HRs all of last year and was very unimpressive overall in AA and didn’t start this season in AAA much better. However he has turned things around a bit in the past two months and shown signs of adjusting.
That said, he still can’t hit LHP at all (.217/.253/.348 this year). So let’s wait until he fixes that before we start comparing him to a MLB All-Star.
I think it was a very apt comparison...
I didn’t say he was going to be Morneau, it is just tough to find guys that have significant high minor league experience at 20. Morneau had a very, very comparable season at the same age. I could definitely see them take a similar track.
However, my question really is what other comparables are out there. Kotchman is a good comparable, I don’t think Laroche is…
Not sure he'll have Morneau's power
When Morneau was a prospect scouts saw him having significant raw power and the ability to become a 30+ HR guy in the majors. I haven’t read similar things about Freeman.
by FI2 on Jul 11, 2010 1:24 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
wrist injury
he injured his wrist about two weeks into his AA promotion last year so that totally sapped his power and really affected his overall numbers. He’s an under the radar type of guy because of Heyward’s presence, but Freeman deserves some attention for what he’s doing in AAA at 20.
I would agree
and I would also go further and point out that power was already a big question mark for Freeman, and that the presence of a power sapping injury actually helped his stock as people glossed over the previous questions (which are swing related) and blamed it on the wrist.
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Morneau is a good comp
you can’t really project any first baseman to field as well as Kotchman has
Freeman is a more contact based first baseman, and in that regard I feel fits a Morneau mold, although it is more of a ceiling projection than something that is likely. Loney is a more likely scenario, but I think Loney is closer to his floor than his ceiling if that makes sense.
does that equal Billy Butler?
"Infield hits are sexy, because they require technique."
-Ichiro
by VivaLosBravos on Jul 11, 2010 3:31 AM EDT up reply actions
better defensively than Butler (probably a Morneau level defender)
I say Morneau before this year, is the best comparison. Butler has one of the best hit tools in the majors, Freeman is good, but not quite that good. Freeman is somewhere between Loney, Butler, and Morneau.
neither Morneau nor Kotchman
Already has better power than Kotchman, who really never showed anything approaching that kind of pop outside of very small samples. But Morneau was a more physical player who had very good and underrated plate discipline.
I’d say the poor man’s Morneau might be a good way to describe what Freeman can be. Assuming the aggressive promotion schedule doesn’t have long-term consequences (sometimes it takes some time for those cracks in the foundation to become evident), it’d be very surprising if he doesn’t turn some of those XBHs into more HRs.
It seems like every 1B with power problems gets compared to Morneau
If you see somebody compared to Morneau its probably a really bad sign.
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twitter: @alskor
he doesn't really have "power problems" though
His IsoPs suggest he has respectable power, and his youth and frame suggest he’ll probably add a bit more.
I’m not saying that he’s going to be a slugger, but he doesn’t look like Kotchman at all to me. Kotch was always an overly passive hitter who just really didn’t have much of an aptitude for hitting for power.
sometimes it takes some time for those cracks in the foundation to become evident
That’s interesting. Can you think of any examples?
"Infield hits are sexy, because they require technique."
-Ichiro
by VivaLosBravos on Jul 11, 2010 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions
lots, but going to be brief
Andy Marte is an obvious one. Would be a good topic for a dedicated discussion on here.
People have been saying that for years about Butler but we're still waiting
This season he’s basically on pace for the same as last year – 50 doubles and 20 home runs. I guess 20 is nothing to sneeze at, especially when you are hitting a solid .320, but I never really understand all the doubles-to-home runs stuff.
butler
His power graded out better as a prospect, and he could probably hit for a lot more power if he wanted to sacrifice some in the batting average.
That is an interesting point, he definitely could swing more for the fences if he didn’t mind a 20-30 point drop in BA plus an increase in Ks.
Butler is an interesting guy, always has been for me. I don’t see Freeman hitting .320-.330 but I could see his power potential being close to what Butler is doing now. That is why I thought the LaRoche comp was interesting.
Tell that to the Mariners
…they should send down Huntington & Nutting, because they aren’t ready, either. - royshowell
by Marinerfanjake on Jul 11, 2010 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
His regualar MLB statline IMO...
.300 BA
80-100 RBIs
20-30 HRS
Will be a solid #3 batter or #4 batter(depending on if JHEY bats #3 or #4) for the Braves for many years
OJ didn't do it
Comparables
I’m not sure what the obsession with comparable players is. First and foremost, a “comp” is just one possibility. If someone thinks Freddy is comparable to Justin, then he is a top 5 prospect (if not higher). It completely rules out any lesser possibilities. Why not just say, his ceiling is such and the probability that he reaches it, in my opinion, is X%.
Personally, I don’t like his swing, I find it to be long and uncomfortable, especially at release. I don’t think he uses his legs well at all despite the wide stance. I don’t see power in his future and therefore I don’t think he is much more than an average 1B right now. He is young and could develop further though.
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A comp is just an easier way to visualize the tools. The vast majority of baseball fans don’t know what a 65 arm is, or what the difference between a 65 arm and a 75 arm. If you throw out names that most fans know and are familiar with their skills, it is easier to see.
Nobody, not scouts, GMs, analysts, or most fans actual think the prospect will be that player. There is nothing wrong with comps, it is a perfectly legitimate way to compare tools/skill sets.
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