The Other Side of Risk

Anyone who follows the Major League draft understands the risk involved.  Each player is evaluated on his probable ceiling, but in reality, very few players reach that ceiling, or come close.  History shows that several first round picks will never play in the Major Leagues despite the millions invested.  Teams also deal with signing risk - the Dodgers today, having drafted Zach Lee, face that risk as Lee, committed to play quarterback at LSU in the fall, may be unsignable or very expensive to sign.

The risk inherent in the Major League draft runs both ways, however.  Players who are drafted have to decide whether to sign or whether to return to school or in some cases, independent ball.  In the case of high school players, they have to decide whether to attend a four-year school and stay out of the draft the next two or three years, or to attend a junior college.  Sometimes the decision not to sign pays off -- sometimes it does not.   More below.  

One well-known case that paid off is Luke Hochevar, the star pitcher from the University of Tennessee.  The Dodgers drafted Hochevar 40th overall in 2005 and Hochevar did not sign - the 39th player selected, Henry Sanchez, signed for $900,000.  Hochevar did not return to Tennessee and instead pitched in 2006 for independent Fort Worth.  He pitched well enough in 4 starts there for Kansas City to take Hochevar first overall in 2006 - Hochevar signed for a $3.5 million bonus shortly thereafter.   Hochevar took a $900,000 gamble and it paid off for him.

Things did not work out so well for Sean Black, however.  Washington took Sean Black in the second round (59th overall) in 2006 Lenape HS in Medford NJ.  Ryan Adams, taken 58th, signed for $675,000.  Black did not sign, however, and attended Seton Hall.  Black pitched 3 seasons for the Pirates and won 10 games in 41 appearances.  The Yankees drafted Black in the 7th round last year and Black signed for a $150,000 bonus.  Black has a 4.53 ERA in 12 appearances for Charleston (South Atlantic) in the Yankee chain this season.

The New York Yankees drafted Gerrit Cole in 28th overall in the 2008 draft - Cole did not sign (likely turning down an over $1 million bonus) to attend UCLA.  Cole was 10-2 with a 3.11 ERA and 131 strikeouts in 101 innings this year for the Bruins - he is on track to improve his draft status with another good season in 2011.

So far, things have not worked out so well for Jake Eliopoulos, Toronto's second round pick (68th overall) last year out of an Ontario high school.  Eliopoulos did not sign (the 67rd selection, Robert Stock, signed for $525,000) and he attended Chipola Junior College in Florida.  Eliopoulos did not make the year, posting an 8.44 ERA and leaving the team in mid-season.  Eliopoulos is eligible for the 2010 draft - it is unlikely he will be taken nearly as high this year, if at all.

When a player is drafted highly and does not sign, there is no guarantee that the player will ever see such a payday or an opportunity again.  Some players drafted highly this year will probably take the risk and not sign - it will be interesting to see whether the gamble pays off for those players down the road.