Another Final Mock Draft
Revised Final Mock Draft Update
The Mock First Round I posted on Thursday is already obsolete with recent developments. Things remain in flux and rumors abound. Here is my "another final take" on things. Keep in mind that this list could still become outdated very quickly, and it is best to stay abreast of current rumors.
This will probably look stupid in seven hours, but here goes.
1) Nationals: Bryce Harper, C, College of Southern Nevada: No change.
2) Pirates: Jameson Taillon, RHP, The Woodlands HS, Texas: Best information is that the Pirates are leaning Taillon over Machado.
3) Orioles: Manny Machado, SS, Brito Private HS, Miami: If the Pirates go with Machado after all, put Taillon here.
4) Royals: Yasmani Grandal, C, University of Miami: The pre-negotiated deal with Yasmani Grandal appears to be off, and there are now counter-rumors that the Royals could go with a cheaper college pitcher like Chris Sale, Drew Pomeranz, Asher Wojchiechowski, or Alex Wimmers. Another rumor has them looking at college bats who would sign for slot (Choice? Brentz?) Despite the current uncertainty, I still think Grandal makes a lot of sense here.
5) Indians: Drew Pomeranz, LHP, University of Mississippi: Grandal going to the Royals knocks Pomeranz down a notch. For weeks the Indians have been linked with Chris Sale. Some sources believe they will switch to Pomeranz, others believe they will stick with Sale, or maybe even switch to a hitter. I'll go with the Pomeranz rumors since I prefer him personally. Late rumors have Grandal going here if negotiations with the Royals break down. If that happens, cascade effects down the draft will be huge.
6) Diamondbacks: Chris Sale, LHP, Florida Gulf Coast University: Consensus indicates that Arizona will go with whichever lefty the Indians don't pick, though there is at least an outside chance that Deck McGuire, Matt Harvey, or some other polished college arm (Wimmers? Loux?) could jump up here.
7) Mets: Justin O'Conner, C, Cowan HS, Muncie, Indiana: The Mets were linked with conservative college choices for weeks, but latest rumors have Justin O'Conner leaping up the draft board, assuming he's willing to sign for slot money. These rumors are strong and persistent. Zach Cox, the other main candidate, is putting out "I want an above-slot bonus" vibes.
8) Astros: Josh Sale, OF, Bishop Blanchett HS, Seattle, Washington: Zach Cox rumors have died off in favor of Sale, who has a terrific bat and should be signable in this slot.
9) Padres: Michael Choice, OF, UT-Arlington: The Padres are supposedly trying to decide between Choice and Vitek. Personally I prefer Choice, so I will go with him. This is the first spot where Karsten Whitson could appear.
10) Athletics: Christian Colon, SS, Cal State Fullerton: The thought that they might flirt with a high school pitcher was apparently misplaced, and Oakland is focused on hitting. Choice and O'Conner both seem logical but are off the board in this scenario. Cox or Colon would be next best, with Colon probably the better bet.
11) Blue Jays: Delino DeShields, OF, Woodward Academy, Georgia. Rumors persist that the Jays want Austin Wilson, but assessments of his signability remain unclear. Karsten Whitson and Delino DeShields are other possible choices, though if prices prove too high, an affordable backup such as a college pitcher could come into play.
12) Reds: Alex Wimmers, RHP, Ohio State University: he's local, he's polished, he's affordable. The pick makes too much sense. I like Wimmers a lot and I think people undersell his ceiling.
13) White Sox: Brandon Workman, RHP, University of Texas: I had Brett Eibner here last time and I still think that makes a lot of sense theoretically, but the White Sox are reportedly closer to wanting Wimmers, Workman, or Barret Loux.
14) Brewers: Jesse Biddle, LHP, Germantown Friends HS, Philadelphia: The choice is supposedly between Biddle or a college pitcher like Deck McGuire, Woj, or Matt Harvey. I like the Biddle rumor myself; I love it when guys get into the first round who weren't mentioned that way until just before the draft.
15) Rangers: Kolbrin Vitek, INF, Ball State University. With home-state guys Choice and Workman off the board in this scenario, and with this pick unprotected, it is hard to get a reading on exactly who the Rangers will go with. High school outfielder Jake Skole is being mentioned as a possibility, but I think Vitek is more logical considering the circumstances.
16) Cubs: Deck McGuire, RHP, Georgia Tech: The Cubs reportedly favor O'Conner, Wimmers, and Vitek, but all are gone under this scenario. Who the fallback would be is unclear. The Cubs occasionally pull a surprise in the first round, but have favored college guys in recent drafts. Deck McGuire and Brett Eibner seem like logical choices to me.
17) Rays: Jake Skole, OF, Blessed Trinity HS, Woodstock, Georgia: Skole has been shooting up draft boards, and the Rays reportedly have a strong interest. Other high school bat options would include outfielder Reggie Golden and shortstop Jacoby Jones. Don't forget that Karsten Whitson and Stetson Allie are still on the board.
18) Angels: Stetson Allie, RHP, St. Edward HS, Olmstead Falls, Ohio: The Angels are said to be interested in high school pitching. My bet is that the southern California arms (Covey, Tago, etc.) will still be there at the bottom of the first round, and that Allie's raw potential is simply too good to pass up.
19) Astros: Reggie Golden, OF, Watumpka HS, Alabama: Golden is a tools hound whose stock is rising, and the Astros reportedly have a strong interest.
20) Red Sox: Zach Cox, 3B, University of Arkansas: He's still on the board for financial reasons in this scenario, but would be hard for the Red Sox to pass up. Matt Harvey remains another option.
21) Twins: Asher Wojciechowski, RHP, The Citadel: College pitchers consistently linked to the Twins such as Wimmers and Workman are off the board at this point. If they stick with past trends, they could go with another near-ready college arm like Woj or Seth Blair. They could do the "Gibson Gamble" and pick Anthony Ranaudo. Or they could go the "Ben Revere" route and pull a surprise player from the high school ranks like Drew Vettleson or even Matt Lipka. It's anyone's guess, so I will take the highest-ranked arm.
22) Rangers: Barret Loux, RHP, Texas A&M: Loux's stock is rising and he's being mentioned as a first round guy now. He should be affordable and has a home-state connection.
23) Marlins: Karsten Whitson, RHP, Chipley HS, Florida: I can't see how Whitson could fall lower than this, and he fits well with the Marlins general development philosophy.
24) Giants: Bryce Brentz, OF, Middle Tennessee State University: Makes a lot of sense for the offense-hungry Giants. If they want to spend over-slot money, Nick Castellanos could go here.
25) Cardinals: A.J. Cole, RHP, Oviedo HS, Florida: The Cardinals got lucky when Shelby Miller dropped last year, and odds are that at least one of the high-profile high school arms will slide again this year. Matt Harvey is still here.
26) Rockies: Kyle Parker, OF, Clemson: The Rockies have a long -standing interest in home-state prep Kevin Gausman, but he would probably still be there in the supplemental round. Kyle Parker is also rumored, but could be more likely to be gone by the time they pick again.
27) Phillies: Christian Yelich, 1B, Westlake HS, Westlake Village, California: I had Jesse Biddle here last time, but there's a good chance he'll be gone by this point. Christian Yelich rumors are strong, but they could also look at stereotypical high school athletes like Kendrick Perkins or Tyrell Jenkins. Gary Brown of Cal State Fullerton would also fit.
28) Dodgers: Tyrell Jenkins, RHP, Henderson HS, Texas: This one still makes sense to me.
29) Angels: Peter Tago, RHP, Dana Hills HS, California: There is a risk he could be gone by this point, but the pick makes sense.
30) Angels: Dylan Covey, RHP, Marantha HS, Sierra Made, California: Allie, Tago, and Covey would be quite a haul.
31) Rays: Brett Eibner, OF-RHP, University of Arkansas: This pick is unprotected so a college guy makes the best sense, and Eibner's two-way abilities stand out.
32) Yankees: Jedd Gyorko, INF, West Virginia: The Yankees could use a bat that should be ready for the major leagues quickly, while continuing to invest money in Latin America for big-ticket players. Nick Castellanos is a possibility if they want to spend more money, and there's a chance that a different high school guy like Drew Vettleson, Tony Wolters, or Kendrick Perkins could pop up. If they want a pitcher, Matt Harvey's upside remains high.
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We're all going to look back, in about 7 years
And smack ourselves repeatedly when we think that Austin Wilson slipped out of the 1st round.
You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220
no Austin Wilson, no Nick Castellanos
Those two strike me as the two players in the entire draft who are most likely to have a chance at being an impact player in the majors (non-Bryce Harper division, of course).
I think most are in agreement
That Wilson’s upside is that of a franchise cornerstone out there in right field. I get not wanting to have to buy him out of a somewhat strong commitment to Stanford, but at a certain point, you’ve gotta give in. What’s more, given the kid’s tremendous makeup and attitude, I’d feel all the more comfortable with hedging my bets on his future success
You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220
So? Give it to them.
"You see, in this world there's two kinds of people, my friend: Those with loaded guns and those who dig. You dig."
Braves
Thanks for the latest mock draft. Who would you have the Braves picking at #35?
by Stephen in the UAE on Jun 7, 2010 1:38 PM EDT reply actions
If the draft plays out like this
Cam Bedrosian would likely be a strong possibility. The one out of LF could be RHP Jimmy Nelson out of Bama who the Braves apparently love, though maybe they wait until later on to select him.
Jays
Any chances they take Skole at 11 if they can’t get a good read on Wilson signability or is that too much of a reach?
Braves
The Braves should be able to pick up Bedrosian with #53 if they want him and Jimmy Nelson might be available at #101.
I would like to see them take Yordy Cabrera, but there is at least an even chance that he won’t be there….
by Stephen in the UAE on Jun 7, 2010 1:55 PM EDT reply actions
Maybe, but that's not the way the Braves operate
They don’t seem to care what anyone else thinks about guys, if they like someone they aren’t going to risk losing them. Don’t get too caught up in how other people rank the draft prospects because there is a huge asymmetry of information when it comes to these guys. The Braves probably have about 10 times as much information on guys like Bedrosian and Nelson than the “experts” out there who are ranking them.
Nelson reminds me a lot of Minor last year. He’s a guy with a projectable body (6’6" 235 lbs) and projectable stuff (91-94 heavy FB with a solid-average slider) that the Braves probably like more than any other team. I have no idea if it will actually happen or not, but the Braves have told him they will take him at #35 if he’s available. Maybe they’re just blowing smoke, but I wouldn’t be all that surprised if it happened.
I'm digging the uncertainty of this first round
It seems to be greater than normal. Don’t worry about looking stupid.
Braves continued
I agree that one of the thngs which makes Braves’ picks interesting is that they pull surprises like last year. Maybe they will take Nelson, but why take him at #35 when you might be able to get him at #70 or even later?
For what it is worth, I would not be surprised to see the Braves take a good number of lesser known junior college players….
by Stephen in the UAE on Jun 7, 2010 2:14 PM EDT reply actions
Just a tip, hit the reply button under the post to keep everything in line
You’d take a guy like Nelson at #35 if you really like him because there is a chance he might not be around later. Just because BA doesn’t think highly of him, that doesn’t mean none of the other teams out there like him as a higher pick. If you like him more than anyone else you can afford at that pick, why wouldn’t you take him?
2008--Braves
To answer your question, if I remember correctly the Braves wanted Spruil, but were surprised to see DeVall available. They selected DeVall and later Spruil so that they would get both….
by Stephen in the UAE on Jun 7, 2010 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Isn't it possible they liked DeVall more?
Or at least as much, but didn’t expect him to last that long? Like I said, I don’t think its a foregone conclusion by any stretch of the imagination, but I think its a pretty strong possibility.
Nelson
Its gotta be Nelson: he went to the same high school as DeVall!
Even though the Braves let it be known that they are looking for some bats, it would not surprise me to see them use their first picks to collect some arms….
by Stephen in the UAE on Jun 7, 2010 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Kyle Parker to COL
Looks like you’ve heard that too, John. What were your sources? I can only remember Law, but maybe Callis said it too?
parker
Both Law and Callis have it. I don’t know who they heard it from, but the word is going around and it is more than a single source.
We will see. It makes sense, esp. with Gausman’s stock dropped enough for him to be there in the supplemental or second round
Hadn't thought of it
but Parker is a good comp for the non-Fowler OF types the Rox run out there. Thanks for confirming Callis on that. It’s all starting to run together.
by blackoutyears on Jun 7, 2010 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions
John, do you really see the Astros going with two outfielders?
I’m thinking maybe they’re thinking a prep arm at 19 and playing it close to their collective vests. Just too many good high school pitchers available there, and Bobby Heck isn’t scared of taking them early.
Why not?
Because they have Hunter Pence? Or such super studs like Jay Austin, Jonathan Gaston, T.J Steele, and Julio Martinez? I think if the Astros really like DeShields more than any available pitcher, why not just take him at 19, and get a pitcher at 33?
by auclairkeithbc on Jun 7, 2010 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
There’s enough minor league depth that you can project one of the OF prospects to work out or another player to switch to LF. But besides that, it’s a strong pitching class and a weak hitting class. Why reach on an iffy low-floor prospect like DeShields or Golden who wasn’t even projected to go in the first round until the past few days?
Oh
I mean the only reason they’d take DeShields is if they have a lot of confidence in him. The fact that some people think he has a really low floor, or that he wasn’t too hyped last month, probably won’t deter them. I’m not saying that he’d be my pick necessarily, but the so-so minor league OF depth of the Astros wouldn’t make me shy about taking a outfielder I was in love with.
by auclairkeithbc on Jun 7, 2010 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions
College Arms
I’d like to see Houston take at least one college pitcher … Wimmers would be nice, or maybe even Workman or Wojciechowski. It’s not as if Houston as that many quality pitchers in the system – in fact, once you get past Jordan Lyles, it’s hard to find one.
by c60 on Jun 7, 2010 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Keith Law
Says the Royals are going for Sale.
My Guys: Gillies, Pacheco, Drabek, Verlander, Ozuna, A Salcedo, S Rodriguez, and others.
saw that but where does Grandal go then
If you are talking about the mock i think you are on that had Grandal falling all the way to 17? Would he really get down that far? Hard to see that happening?
Grandal
He pretty much has to go 5, considering the Indians really want him and are willing to pay him . . .doesn’t he?
So then we've got Pom falling
Interesting to see if he gets to my Mets fo realz
You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220
Considering the Indians have Carlos Santana
Why would they pick Grandal?
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santana
I think it’s increasingly clear that they don’t feel very confident in his defensive ability behind the plate.
For them to be willing to pay somebody a $3+ million bonus with the 5th pick of the draft to fix that problem. . .well, I think the action speaks louder than any words . . .
Hadn't heard
Indians on Grandal. Makes sense though.
by blackoutyears on Jun 7, 2010 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Somewhere
Dewey Finn is smiling and thinking I told them so.
"This has got to hurt"
by Da.aron on Jun 7, 2010 6:21 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
even still
Santana as DH >>>>> Thole as C. even Santana as PH >>> Thole as C
Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson
question about protected picks
Does anyone know for sure whether supplemental first round picks are “protected”, or, in other words whether you get the pick back the following year if the player you pick doesn’t sign for picks that were received as compensation for free agent signings. Makes a big difference in trying to figure out how the Rangers and others will use those picks and whether there might be a tendency for a team with financial issues to be more aggressive with the first round pick and more conservative with the supplemental pick.
Not the way you're thinking
The first 15 picks are “protected” in the sense that if a team with one of those picks signs a Type-A free agent, that pick is not lost to the team losing the free agent. With respect to the draft, however, there are compensation picks for not signing a draftee in the first 3 rounds (supp. included). The only way those aren’t protected is if the pick is a compensation for not signing in the previous year. For example, the Rays failed to sign LeVon Washington last year, so will have pick 31 in this draft. If they don’t sign the person they pick at 31, there is no further compensation.

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