Machado or Taillon?
by John Sickels on Jun 6, 2010 7:00 PM EDT
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PrintIf you were the Pirates, would you pick Manny Machado or Jameson Taillon?
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From what I've read...
Machado is gonna need a lot of development time.
As it stands, Taillon has the ability to rip through the minors with his tremendous stuff.
JOSH THOLE > carlos santana
Rather The O's Have Machado IMO
He’ll be a perfect fit for the team. They need a star SS leader.
My Guys: Gillies, Pacheco, Drabek, Verlander, Ozuna, A Salcedo, S Rodriguez, and others.
I’ll always draft a stud pitcher over a stud hitter. Quoting Pat Hickey of MLB Bonus Baby:
When has a high school pitcher come out of the draft with a plus fastball that isn’t even his best pitch?
Taillon is special.
by Jordan Tuwiner on Jun 6, 2010 8:25 PM EDT up reply actions
"They need a star SS leader."
Why? Because they had one who played every game for umpteen seasons until it started to cost the team wins?
+1
"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."
by fourfingerwoo on Jun 6, 2010 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions
funny stuff
I get that Taillon is flavor of the month when it comes to young power arms (and who doesn’t like a good power arm?), I really like him too.
But still . . .Machado is a legitimate shortstop with a LOT of bat. Look at how many teams are desperate for anybody to play shortstop, let alone a guy who can play it AND be a major force in the lineup. He might not be the easier player to develop, but when it comes to drafting, it is almost always harder to find a good shortstop prospect than it is a young power arm.
Ok, here's why I like Taillon...
So, it’s been my impression that Machado is the fast riser, not Taillon, who I’ve been hearing about all season. But maybe you meant something else than flavor of the Month. Taillon has been the top HS guy for BA since Feb.
And while I appreciate the risks involved with any HS player, it seems that the risks for HS pitchers have been less in the last handful of years. That may be an illusion, or it may be a result of modern handling of pitchers, and that TJ is more routine and less scary.
I like Machado too, and I have the #2 pick in our amateur draft, so have been debating which one to take myself, and I just have to go with Taillon. Anyone who is said to be the best HS pitcher to come out since Beckett, especially in light of the guys we’ve seen drafted the last two years, has to be taken #2.
Poster formerly known as artie
turn of phrase
We had this same sort of talk last year with Matzek and Turner. They’re all good pitching prospects, but the hype train always runs out of control before we have much substance to go on.
Yeah, I understand...
and you’re right, it might be all hype, I mean not only is he being hyped for being Taillon, but he’s also benefiting from the hype that Turner, Matzek, and Miller are getting because he’s supposed to be better than all of them.
But in the end, my current feeling is that given modern advances in sports medicine, it feels that HS arms are less risky than projecting position and power from a HS bat. So that’s a big reason why we’re going to go with Taillon, I hope we don’t regret it.
Poster formerly known as artie
random thought
If Taillon goes to the Orioles tomorrow, can we at least get an on-screen montage of “Great Moments in Recent Orioles Pitching Prospect History”?
Just shoot me know
Get it over with
Every time someone talks about Loewen making the bigs as a corner OF I start to cry a little
As long
as it’s mostly Matusz, Tillman and Arrieta it might be bearable. lol
So far so good with developing their most recent high-ceiling arms.
by blackoutyears on Jun 7, 2010 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
we'll see
I really like Matusz and think Tillman is solid, but neither is a lock yet . . .they have career ERAs of 4.92 and 5.63 respectively. And Arrieta we haven’t gotten to see at all yet.
So what you’re saying is, go light on the Radhames Liz footage?
John Maine can host the thing
Top pick pitchers…
1995 Alvie Shepherd, rhp
1996 Brian Falkenborg, rhp (2nd round)
1999 Mike Paradis, rhp
2000 Beau Hale, rhp
2001 Chris Smith, lhp
2002 Adam Loewen, lhp
2004 Wade Townsend, rhp (unsigned)
I was thinking more Rommie Lewis
but Liz is an excellent call. lol
by blackoutyears on Jun 7, 2010 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions
As for Matusz/Tillman
Forget ERA. They’re healthy and pitching in the majors! Moral victory declared.
by blackoutyears on Jun 7, 2010 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
At this point I would rather have Machado
but I will be happy with either one
Players who should be in the Hall of Fame: Pat TIllman, Dwight White, Donnie Shell, L.C. Greenwood, Ray Guy, Steve Tasker, Greg Llyod, Andy Russel, Cris Carter, Kevin Greene and Jerry Kramer
"It is better to offer no excuse than a bad one." George Washington
Canal Street Chronicles resident Steelers Fan
Taillon, but it's a bit of a toss up
The Pirates don’t have any TOR starting pitching prospects (except maybe Colton Cain, but he’s more of a wild card), so I’d go Taillon. Machado is defensible too and either would be excellent picks.
Buc's Dugout
SB Nation Blog Buc’s Dugout is running an identical poll with 67% at this time voting for Machado. Interesting.
Hard to make a "bad" pick.
The only way the Pirates screw it up (or the Orioles) is if either DON’T pick Tallion or Machado. The Os are very unlikely to go that way. They’ve been said to be leaning in the Tallion direction. With the Pirates you have to ask:
Is there a chance they go with neither due to signability? Tallion is Hendricks Brothers. Machado is Boras. ANd both should command very high signing totals.
What's funny about that...
is the rumors that they’re also thinking about a third person, an unnamed college pitcher. So I guess it’s possible that they go for Option C…it could just be smoke…
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100606&content_id=10869926&vkey=draftcentral2010&fext=.jsp
Poster formerly known as artie
Here's a factoid. that could factor into the Pirates thinking...
There’s been 7 HS pitchers ever taken in the top 3 of the draft in 20 yrs. Only 2 pitchers (Beckett and Steve Avery) ever made it to have MLB careers. Among them I think you can say only Beckett has ever reached his billing. The other 5 never did. When I hear Tallion, we need to also keep in mind how far they are from the majors, in spite of the hype. Think another prep star in ’71 who could hit 99 mph too. He got injured and was never the same again:
Brien Taylor.
Not suggesting that this happens to Tallion...
…only suggesting that the Pirates may use this kind of explanation as a defense to taking a position player, if they pick Machado. And, considering the odds, they might be well within their rights to do so. Pitching is high risk. So is a HS pick. A HS pitcher? It’s a gamble.
I absolutely hate that type of argument
I don’t think there needs to be a defense if they pick Machado. He is a legitimate big time prospect and only slightly behind Taillon. I also think using the “HS pitchers are risky” line is a cop out. Yes, they bust at higher rates, but picking someone from another group does not mean that they won’t bust. The best in the long line of limited upside college pitchers that they’ve picked is Paul Maholm.
If this unspecified college pitcher is the pick (and I have no reason to think that it is), I can’t see anyway that I’ll be happy.
I won't be happy with a College arm, either....
But, that doesn’t mean the argument that HS pitchers drafted that high are normally busts isn’t sound. It is…based on numbers.
FWIW, if they pick Machado, they won’t talk about the risks that Taillon presented, but rather the upside that Machado brings. Rightly…..
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Jun 7, 2010 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions
Just a couple of points...
I agree that there is risk with both of these guys, but…
Brien Taylor’s failure had nothing to do with baseball activities. He screwed his shoulder getting into a fight outside a club, I think he was coming to the defense of his brother…anyway, there are other, better examples, Taylor isn’t one of them.
Then medical science isn’t static, especially with pitchers, so drawing from 20 years isn’t really helpful. I mean TJ is more routine now than it was in the past and things like that, so I think the health risk for pitchers, which is the main risk, while still high, is less now than it was in the past.
Poster formerly known as artie
I think that is a fair assessment....
And, you are also correct that generalities aren’t the best way to draft a class. However, the sheer number of busts v. gems from the top slot HS-players should make a GM at least investigate further and should give them some pause.
Could Tailllon be the next Beckett? Sure. But, history says that will be the exception, not the rule. That doesn’t scream, “Don’t pick him”, but, again, it is a factor to be considered.
Good stuff, beast.
by CabreraKilledMyChildhood on Jun 7, 2010 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, it's tough...
and like I mentioned, or maybe not, anyway, we have the #2 pick in our fantasy amateur draft, and my team’s SS is weak, so I have the same problem as the Pirates.
And I’m a product of recent hype, which means when I hear Taillon is better than Miller, Turner, Matzek or Wheeler from last year, and that’s impressive because of the hype those guys got. Then they link his hype back to Beckett too, and the hype is pretty high for the guy. Heck they were talking about him possibly going #1 over Harper back in April.
So, for me, it comes down to weighing the odds that Taillon can stay healthy vs Macado sticking at SS and hitting for enough power. Given how Drabek has progressed, I’m still leaning Taillon.
Poster formerly known as artie
I guess what I meant was...
…if you’re asking me who has the most upside and talent today, I will easily go with Tallion. That’s not a knock on Machado by any means. It’s just a measure of for what it’s worth, how far Tallion is perceived to be from the majors right now, and, how much talent he already has.
The argument I was raising is, if you took into consideration of attrition rates for pitchers, which is not the same for other positions (That’s a fact), and weighed that into the equation, it’s something to think about. Tallion could do everything right, and rise to the majors very quickly, but circumstances and luck sometimes contributes to shaping that player’s career. Who’s more likely to be more -ill-affected (if ever). I think you have to admit that the pitcher has a little more risk in there (like any other hardthrowing pitcher might).
That being said, were the Pirates right to go with Tallion? Probably. AT the end of the day, I think all baseball is best served when the team picks the best talent available, period.
I cannot argue those points at all...
I was digging around, looking for more research on the subject, which I find interesting…here are a few…
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/5/6/866911/a-look-back-at-the-1st-round-of
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/valuing-the-draft-part-2/
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/analyzing-the-mlb-draft-using-war/
Here’s one that tries to look at ranking vs pick location…
http://www.buccofans.com/2010/02/risk-of-taking-pitcher-in-first-round.html
Here’s one by BA’ Callis
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/90-97draftbreakdown.html
The last one was interesting because it showed a higher success rate for high school righthanders than high school shortstops. However, in the context of those studies, I wonder if there’s not some statistical regression going on…
But, it always leaves me with the question, if high school pitchers are such terrible picks, why make them that early? I mean there’s not some magical break point for picking a prep arm, but from a money standpoint, it seems to make sense. Unless there’s some disproportionally high number of the top pitchers being first round high school picks or something.
Poster formerly known as artie
Oh, I meant to say...
that the Callis study broke things down either by round or by position, so the relative success of picking pitchers in the later rounds may account for the overall edge by pitchers over shortstops, since it didn’t address, specifically, first round pitchers or first round shortstops.
Poster formerly known as artie
If you pick based on who has better talent today...
I think it’s arguable both ways. It becomes a pitching vs. position player discussion. But if you make it a likelihood of “reaching the majors, or not” argument, then it changes a little. Pitching is a high risk injury position, which makes it so scarce. I don’t think Machado has to deal with the same degree of health risks that might complicate his rise to the majors as Tallion may. In a perfect world, both reach the majors pretty quickly, but if only one of them did, who’s the more likely guy?
Injuries loom for pitchers, that's true.
But then again, Machado has to learn how to hit major league pitching. That transition isn’t exactly an easy one.
Meanwhile, Taillon has the stuff to get major league hitters out right now. He needs to tune up his command to be a successful major leaguer. But that seems like an easier thing to project than Machado’s ability to hit against pitchers that are way better than anything he’s ever seen before.
It’s a close one and as a Pirates fan, I’m obviously very interested and won’t be upset with either of them, but I lean slightly towards Taillon.
The talent isn't even close
Taillon is far, far more talented at this point; Machado has much more work to be done. The only argument I could see for Machado is the pitcher attrition rate you mentioned.
I think I'm impressed most
by the vote total, leaving aside the results. That’s some healthy site traffic.
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