The New Draft Dish Thread
by mrkupe on Jun 6, 2010 3:20 AM EDT
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PrintThe old one got pushed down, so here we go.
Kicking it off is new stuff from our good friend Frankie Piliere, with a few comments of my own to complement it.
-The Mets are centering in on . . . C Justin O'Connor. I've suspected that teams were playing it very cool on O'Connor for a while now and that there were multiple teams who were targeting him as a signability guy, but not even I thought he would get THIS high up the board. This pick would probably blow up some boards in the 16-21 pick range.
-The Indians have locked onto Drew Pomeranz.at No. 5. Not too surprising . . .I think their interest in Chris Sale was largely predicated on the idea that Pomeranz would not be there, and since they know that KC won't take him off the board, they're showing their hand. Solid pick, relatively high upside as far as Indians picks go.
-The Brewers are focusing on Jesse Biddle, but projectable prep RHP Luke Jackson (4th round pick in the Unofficial 4th Round of the Official Unofficial Minor League Ball Mock Draft) is apparently their second choice. Sounds like another guy that teams have been playing it cool on for a while, but at this point in the process, the fog starts to clear.
-Deck McGuire might just fall to the Reds at No. 12, which would also blow up draft boards. I had the Reds pegged for Alex Wimmers or Christian Colon, and having both of them still on the board would probably cause some teams to start shuffling things around. It looks like concerns about Colon's upside are starting to rear their ugly head, but I can't see Wimmers falling too much farther down. And where exactly will Matt Harvey end up?
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also would like to note
Folks, don’t forget to do your due diligence and click on the link. Frankie P’s stuff is generally awesome and giving his articles as many hits as possible benefits EVERYBODY.
Most definitely.
Frankie’s updates have thrown everything into disarray.
If Biddle and O’Connor go to those teams it opens up all kinds of possibilities for my Rangers. Still seems Choice will be taken. Zack Cox almost certainly will be off the board but I didn’t imagine Whitson would be available. Nor did I think Wimmers would be a possibility either. All kinds of interesting guys may be available at 22 as well.
Let’s hope more info leaks out in the next 36 hours. This stuff his pathetically riveting.
If D-Mac falls to the Reds at 12 then who might take Colon?
Maybe the Twins?
Proud father of Mike Krukow (who is more than 3 times my age)
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Still cheering for Kevin Frandsen
John Bowker: One of the 3 best OF's on the Giants roster
The Pirates going Taillon is gaining traction:
2. PIRATES: Jameson Taillon, rhp, The Woodlands (Texas) HS. Pittsburgh will choose between Taillon and Florida high school shortstop Manny Machado, and the pendulum now is swinging toward Taillon.
-Callis
wow
a week ago, wouldn’t have dreamed that the Rays may get to actually choose between Whitson and Allie. looks like a real strong possibility… though I kinda hope Wilson falls to us
doesn't really fit their developmental M.O.
And lots of picks this year with the botched draft last year. Don’t have a good feel for them yet at 17. At 31 I don’t think Peter Tago gets by them if he’s there. Sneaky guy would be Drew Vettleson, they look to the Pacific Northwest a lot and he’d be an easy sign there.
their MO
is take the best player available, and I consistently see “best stuff outside of Taillon” attached to Allie
that's a really generic way of looking at things
Everybody says they’re taking the “best player available”, but teams often have different ideas of what the best players are, and sometimes “best player” means “best player for the situation”. What do you expect baseball people to say . . .that they’re not taking the best player available, but if you want them to in the future, send a letter to the owner?
The Rays obviously have certain types of players that they’ve targeted over the last several years. Projectable and toolsy is probably where they are looking, as they usually do.
is Allie not projectable?
what is the Rays’ “best player for the situation”? they have prospects or young players at every position, with Catcher being the weak spot… but with O’Conner and Grandal gone, I don’t see them reaching for anybody.
depends on your point of view
He already sits mid-90s, I can’t really see him ADDING velocity . . .he could stand to bring along his command, though. He’s also probably going to be pretty expensive.
I don’t see too many things that I would consider “reaches” in this draft. There’s somewhere between 12 and 15 guys that I can’t see not going in the first round, and after that, there’s well over 50 players that I would group together pretty closely, with the order that they’re picked in being due to personal preference and signability.
That's a sound assessment imo
And there’s a large pool behind that second group that is all over the map but filled with talent as well. Maybe I’m just on way more names than usual, but this draft could end up being fairly deep in terms of the Top 200 guys. The lack of lots of blue chip names seems to be the basis for calling this a down draft, but a team that drafts wisely could really make hay this year.
by blackoutyears on Jun 7, 2010 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions
I would say
It’s easy to mis-read this draft as being deep because it’s so level . . .it really isn’t. While there might not be much of a difference between the guy drafted at 30 this year and 60 this year, both of those guys probably wouldn’t stack up that well compared to the players found at similar spots in other drafts.
That’s not to say that there aren’t some real finds out there, of course.
It's all about definition
I see an interesting of reasonably high-ceiling h.s. kids and polished college players going quite a ways into talent lists. Perusing a couple of Top 200s this week was pretty illuminating…
by blackoutyears on Jun 7, 2010 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Rangers draft budget is supposedly around 9M
or approximately 2M over slot total
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
question
Is that what they’re saying it is, or is that what MLB is actually going to let them spend?
If it’s the former, it looks like they might have gotten the go-ahead to take a signability risk . . .Whitson would be the obvious choice at 15, but not too many guys would surprise me if they have money.
been budgeted long before any of this happened. The money is just sitting there waiting on the draft
The Purke thing got all screwed but because it was over their planned budget and would have been just the standard, lets pull some out of somewhere else and MLB said no. That kid is now going to be a top 5 pick in the 2011 draft and he isn’t in the Texas minors because Bud and Hicks could figure out how to balance the Texas check book.
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
sour grapes
Yeah, Purke is really good . . .but really, the Rangers have nobody to blame for this but themselves. They could have had lots of different players, they just had to go for one who was going to be a really tough sign with tons of leverage.
I think MLB was perfectly in the right. The Rangers were living off of MLB’s money . . .while I’m very cool with overslot bonuses, I don’t think it’s hard to understand why MLB didn’t like the idea of subsidizing an overslot deal. They might as well have thrown out the whole system right there and then.
actually it was OKd then MLB said never mind right at the end
I have no problem with MLB control or acceptance, but don’t change your mind when deal with a draft pick after the pick was taken with your blessing…
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
just guessing
MLB didn’t give the Rangers permission to sign Matt Purke to a deal that was $2 million over his slot. And had they known that was the Rangers’ intention, they wouldn’t have given the selection their “blessing”.
Maybe the Rangers were pissy about it, but when somebody else is paying the bills, that’s how things go.
“With 15 being unprotected, you just can’t afford any surprises,” Daniels said. “There is no recourse after that. We’ve done everything possible to get to know these players, their families and their situations. We haven’t changed our approach, but we’re always trying to refine what we do.”
in other words, they’re going to be DAMN SURE a player will sign. still think they’ll go safe here. maybe a bit more risky with later picks. maybe.
baseball rules.
thinking
If Whitson is there at 15, they might take him. More likely, college player at 15, maybe Tyrell Jenkisn if he’s still on the board at 22.
Man, I really love Tyrell Jenkins. He’s pretty raw, but great arm. Seems to be getting some late lift in the draft, especially with that two sport status making a large signing bonus a little easier to bear.
Maybe they’ll take Choice on the off chance that he’s still on the board. What kind of bonus is Choice demanding?
haven't heard anything crazy
Guessing he signs for slot or just barely over, wherever he ends up going. Don’t see him being a hard sign at all.
Seems like a good fit
Local kid, No. 15 is about where he ranks in the draft IMO. Good upside for a college player, though high bust potential, on the downside.
Blue Jays
Had Levon Washington workout for them at the Rogers Centre today. Maybe looking at him in the supplemental or second rounds?
updates
Jesse Hahn was injured while warming up in the fourth inning today, no more info yet.
The Diamondbacks are between Chris Sale and Barret Loux. I’m beginning to wonder if Sale’s camp is putting out a high figure to teams and scaring them off.
Loux seems to be getting a ton of helium… not sure I understand, I mean he’s a good prospect, but that high just seems crazy.
polish
Four pitches, good command, great changeup (something lost on most of the more highly touted college arms this year). Very safe pick, probably signs underslot there. I prefer Alex Wimmers among the safer college pitchers, but Loux isn’t that far behind.
In a draft with this much uncertainty (tons of guys with bust potential even near the top of the draft), it’s hard to put too high a price on a high floor.
Fair points, but still, with at least two of Pomeranz, C. Sale, and McGuire on the board, you would think one of those would be preferred.
I think Pomeranz is a lock to Cleveland
I think he was their guy all along and now that their path to him is clear, Cleveland isn’t going to budge.
McGuire isn’t as safe as you’re suggesting he is . . .solid fastball/slider combo, but Loux has a better four pitch mix, better command. It looks like the final crosschecks are making people realize that they actually don’t like McGuire as much as they thought they did.
they might be
I think it’s silly, but then again, it’s a lot easier to spend other peoples’ millions for them.
If Sale gets past Arizona, how far does he drop? Don’t think the Mets will move off Justin O’Connor for him. Cincy at No. 12 would seem most likely. Deck McGuire to the White Sox?
jays
I think they’re still up in the air due to Austin Wilson. I think he’s the guy they’ve wanted all along, just depends on the money. Prediction for the moment is that they’ll go for it.
Otherwise, prep arm for the Jays IMO. Maybe the guy who just hit 101 MPH? :)
oakland
I think they really liked Justin O’Connor and Josh Sale, but the Mets and Astros seem to be on them. I haven’t gotten the impression that Oakland has really been enamored with the college arms. Got a feeling that they might surprise . . .Whitson or Allie maybe, but for some reason I can’t shake Delino Deshields from them, either.
Allie
Draft prospect Stetson Allie hit 101 in the 1st. Same stadium gun that had Aroldis Chapman at 100 once last week. #MLBDraft #fb.
http://twitter.com/prospectjunkies/status/15575847931
baseball rules.
would seem very unlike them
I think Arizona has pretty much decided on a safe and relatively easy to sign college pitcher. Going back to look at Allie would be a total 360 . . .I wonder which teams have scouts in attendance today.
how do you know?
I know all the well-known college arms have been tied to them, but I don’t think that says much… Arizona is not afraid to draft high school players
I don't know for sure
But all the buzz in the last few days is pointing pretty heavily at a college arm . . .they might not know exactly who they want, but considering the kind of signing bonus they’ll have to hand out to one player, it seems pretty clear that they’ve identified WHAT they want.
What have you seen that connects them to Allie, and what would make you think they’d want him above their other options? If they went prep, I’d think it’s probably somebody with a bit more polish.
Saw his name connected to them once
but can’t remember who it was… if I find it I’ll post the link. I think Allie is the #2 prep pitcher, and has possibly more upside than anyone not named Harper… I really don’t think he’s gonna last as long as most mocks are insinuating
we'll see
The top 4 are all solid, and Cleveland is all about Drew Pomeranz. The Mets seem set with Justin O’Connor and if not him, will probably take Zach Cox. Houston looks like they want a bat of some sort. I don’t think San Diego will spend for Allie, they look like they want a college bat too. The Dbacks and the A’s are the only two teams I can see Allie going to in the top 10, and neither seem all that big on going dramatically overslot if at all.
Yeah, I like Allie too, but it’s increasingly obvious that teams are putting a huge emphasis on easy signs this year, especially after every highly touted prep pitcher got a massive overslot deal last year, and two first rounders not signing at all.
If he falls that far
I could see the Giants being interested-Dick Tidrow loves his power arms. That said I think it’s pretty unlikely he lasts that long. A kid who can hit triple digits doesn’t last 24 unless there are serious concern$ (and command issues).
Proud father of Mike Krukow (who is more than 3 times my age)
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Still cheering for Kevin Frandsen
John Bowker: One of the 3 best OF's on the Giants roster
according to a recent buzz I saw
UPDATE (6/6 – 3:55 PM) – We are continuing to get word that the Mets are heavily leaning toward Justin O’Conner with the seventh overall pick. But, there is one condition to that. If Chris Sale or Drew Pomeranz gets to them, they will likely take one of the pair over O’Conner. This strengthening buzz also is beginning to make Zack Cox to the Athletics look more and more like a safe bet.
courtesy of http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/06/05/draft-buzz-top-15-clearing-up/
Sale vs Pomeranz
As an Indians fan I’ve been looking at these 2 since the start of the college season and it seems like both will be available at #5.
I know some people really hate Sale’s delivery, but I’m not a big believer in the whole inverted W/arm will blow up theory. My main concern is the arm slot which could be a problem for him vs righthanders though he offsets it a bit with his changeup.
Pomeranz was a beast for most of the season and didn’t seem likely to be there for the Indians. So in a way it could be a no-doubter to draft him, but on the other hand his struggles late in the season and his shaky command could raise some question marks.
Comparing the two, I think Sale has a slightly higher ceiling while Pomeranz probably has a higher floor. Not knowing their bonus demands, they seem so equal to me that it’s hard to make a decision.
Which one would you guys pick?
pirates
MLB.com is now reporting that the Pirates are still looking at THREE players for the No. 2 pick. Taillon, Machado, and an as-yet-unspecified college pitcher. Guessing it’s a money thing, trying to decide if Taillon/Machado are worth more than a college arm plus a heap of overslot guys like last year.
Okay . . .so if both Taillon and Machado are still on the board after the Pirates pick, what the hell does that do to the draft?
I'm having a hard time imagining
who I’d take ahead of Taillon or Machado there.
one and one and one is three
well, the pirates know better than most re: how much money those two want
If they had to pay somewhere between one third to one half of the cost of Taillon or Machado, is a college arm plus $3-4 million extra to play with in your budget worth it?
I’d probably have to think long and hard on that one, especially in this class.
good point
though I think Taillon just might be worth it. They don’t pick again until #52, I’d go for it with that pick.
one and one and one is three
Stetson Allie scouting report and video from today via prospect junkies
Andy is a god... You out did yourself man...
those of you who have not bought his pdf for 9.99 will regret it. Go over to www.mlbbonusbaby.com and get it….
755 profiles in 431 pages. Amazing piece of work….
If this is out of line John, I am sorry and please delete…
JD’s like, "you want some fucking pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, bitches!"- RCCook
SBN
Since they are both part of the SBN team, I don’t think John will mind.
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Keith Law
Has been hearing the Royals are going for Sale.
My Guys: Gillies, Pacheco, Drabek, Verlander, Ozuna, A Salcedo, S Rodriguez, and others.
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